Search

This paper identifies and examines a number of long-term trends reshaping the security environment in the Taiwan Strait in ways that might produce a military conflict. Focusing on long-term trends is a useful analytical approach that highlights the possibility that political leaders may knowingly take risky actions in response to perceptions that adverse trends are eroding their security. Taiwan?s democratic transition and growing sense of a separate Taiwan identity have changed the political considerations governing Taiwan?s policy toward the mainland. China worries about growing pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan, but lacks the political tools to build support for unification. As a result, China has sought to deter movement toward Taiwan independence while developing the military capabilities to deter U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan. China?s goal is to force the United States to choose between continuing its support for Taiwan or sacrificing Chinese cooperation on economic and security issues. The perceived Chinese military threat to Taiwan has caused the United States to increase its support for Taiwan, included increased security cooperation. These trends are gradually undercutting the basis for the ?one China? framework that has served U.S. interests effectively for the past thirty years. The paper examines these long-term trends and assesses their implications for the stability of the security environment in the Taiwan Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2004 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan have affected Taiwan's political, economic and social development as well as Taiwan's national security and the future trend of the cross-strait relations. More importantly, the election outcome involves both the issue of military balance between the two sides and mutual political interactions, economic and trade exchanges, and social impacts across the Strait. Indeed, the cross-strait issues involve the sophisticate, strategic triangular relationship among the United States, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan, as well as U. S. policy toward Taiwan and vice versa. Based on the outcome of the 2004 presidential and legislative elections, this paper attempts to explore the internal political rearrangements, possible orientation of the new public opinions in Taiwan, and the election impacts on Taiwan's policies towards PRC and the cross-strait relations. In fact, the passage of the first Referendum Act in Taiwan has certainly opened up possible referendum channels for deciding and executing critical political policies on Taiwan and cross-strait relationships such as drafting a new constitution and establishing a new nation, which intensifies PRC's discontent and worries. Despite President Chen's 2004 reelection, his plans to "retitle Taiwan," "draft a new constitution" and "build a new nation" have encountered setbacks due to lacking of legislative majority support. However, Chen's plan to implement a new constitution in 2008 stays firm. Under the conflicting standoffs between Taiwan's "amending or drafting the Constitution" and PRC's "Anti-Secession Law," it is anticipated that the future cross-strait relations will entail significant variations in a harsh atmosphere even though the two sides have, for the first time in 56 years, brought about two-way direct charter flights for the 2005 Chinese New Year showing that the political tension has not deterred a closer and closer economic, social and cultural exchanges across the Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the evolution of domestic Taiwanese politics came a corresponding internationalization of the Taiwanese independence movement. The importance of Taiwanese independence not only impinges on the lives of 21 million or so Taiwanese living on the island, but also affects the strategic environment of the Asia Pacific region as China has declared that it would not hesitate to resort to force should circumstances dictate that it becomes necessary to do so. Taiwan is often cited to be one of the two potential flashpoints in the Asia Pacific, and a conflict between the PRC and Taiwan may more worrying for many countries evolve into one between PRC and the United States. While Taiwan’s role in Sino-US relations have been widely studied, the importance of Taiwan in affecting Chinese bilateral relations beyond its relations with US is a relatively unexplored field. This paper attempts an exploratory study of the evolving role Taiwan plays in Sino-Japanese relations. It attempts to under how the historical role of Taiwan in Sino-Japanese relations affect the island’s contemporary diplomatic dynamics with China and Japan. The role of Taiwan in Chinese and Japanese national security strategy will also be scrutinized to understand the possible divergence or convergence of China and Japan over the Taiwan issue. This is crucial as Japan’s stance is important as Japan is considered one of US allies within region but may not necessarily deem it in its best interests to go along with the US against China. This difficulty presents it with an extremely tricky choice. A slip either way will affect the regional stability and prosperity of the Asia Pacific as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper overviews sophisticated triangular relations among Taipei, Beijing and Washington after 2000. Then, it scrutinizes the development of US mediation as a form of third-party intervention in such complicated dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. The pattern of contemporary US mediation is studied in an analytical way. Then, it analyzes the role and approaches (strategies) of the US in mediating between the ROC and the PRC, as well as evaluates preliminarily the future of US mediation. Some key findings include, for example: the US is gradually moving towards the role of real mediator in the cross-strait dispute, the characteristics of the US itself and the environment are positive forces driving further effective US mediation, as well as the US will continue to play a mediating role throughout the George W. BushÂ’s presidency but has to be cautious of the effectiveness of its mediation and the differences between Taipei and Beijing in order to find a useful way to enhance the understandability and acceptability of its official position on the peaceful resolution of the cross-strait sovereignty dispute. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the military threat facing Taiwan, whose status as a sovereign state is weakly supported in the international community. It cites the threat posed by the determination of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to unite Taiwan with the mainland. It notes that China is determined to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence and to return the island to the mainland's governance. It mentions the significant problems posed by Taiwan Strait for the conduct of amphibious warfare.

The article focuses on preventing tension in the Taiwan Strait. It cites that an outbreak of military conflict in the channel would have consequences for regional stability and the global economy. The first security priority for the second term of U.S. President George W. Bush will be preventing the conflict due to changing status quo as well as increasing urgency. One of the reasons why Taiwan is of considerable significance to the U.S. is that U.S. support for Taiwan is closely tied to U.S. interests in fostering newly established democracies.