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1. São Paulo drought: trends in streamflow and their relationship to climate and human-induced change in Cantareira watershed, Southeast Brazil.

Author

Nicoleti de Freitas, Gabriela

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *REFORESTATION, *DROUGHTS, *WATER supply, *STREAMFLOW, *LAND use mapping
Abstract

The 2013-2015 drought in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo exposed the lack of resilience of the regional water supply system, highly dependent on the Cantareira reservoirs. In this paper, inflows to each of the four main Cantareira reservoirs are tested for systematic change. Persistent trends in streamflow, rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are first evaluated. Streamflow was also tested for step change. Double-mass curves were employed to assess modification in the precipitation-runoff relationship. Subsequently, we used the climate elasticity method and the ABCD model to quantify the relative contribution of climate and human activities into the detected trends. Only Cachoeira and Atibainha sub-basins showed a significant downward trend in streamflow. The results for step change were also significant, and the year of occurrence coincided with breakpoints in precipitation-runoff relationship. For both Cachoeira and Atibainha, human activities had a more significant impact on streamflow reduction than climate variability. Land use and cover maps suggest that the reduction of pasture/abandoned land parallel to an increase in reforestation/silviculture is behind streamflow reduction. The results highlight the importance of coordinating land-use patterns and water management, as an important contributor beyond any considerations of a changing climate. Implications for better managing regional water resources are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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2. Climate change and reliability of urban water supply.

Author

S. Maheepala and C. Perera

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *MUNICIPAL water supply, *WATER supply, *STREAMFLOW
Abstract

This paper describes a probability-based method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban water supply systems. Specifically, the assessment method uses probability distributions to place a confidence level on the plausible values of response variables. The Benalla water supply system has been used to demonstrate applicability of the proposed assessment method. For the application, the impact of the 2030 climate change scenarios on streamflows and system yield has been examined. The preliminary results have demonstrated that the proposed assessment method can provide valuable insights into the impact of climate change on water supply systems, allowing it to be incorporated into planning decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2003
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3. Implications of Climate Change for Water Resources Development in the Ganges Basin

Author

Jorge Jose Escurra, N. Harshadeep, Don Blackmore, Marc Jeuland, and Claudia Sadoff

Subjects
STREAMFLOW, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, RIVERS, WATER CONSUMPTION, COASTS, FLOW, CANALS, EMISSIONS TRENDS, Geography, Planning and Development, RIVER BASINS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, GASES, GROUNDWATER RESOURCES, WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, LARGE DAMS, CONVERGENCE, WATER, Water cycle, RAINFALL, LAND USE, MONSOONS, EMISSIONS, Water Science and Technology, MUNICIPAL WATER, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EMISSIONS SCENARIO, SEAWATER, ANNUAL RAINFALL, WATER AVAILABILITY, WATER RESOURCE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, CATCHMENTS, EVAPORATION, WATER DEMAND, WATER POLICY, SURFACE RUNOFF, AVAILABLE WATER, CRU, Downscaling, FLOW AUGMENTATION, GROUNDWATER IRRIGATION, HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL, WATER USES, CRYOSPHERE, POWER PLANTS, WATER MANAGEMENT, HYDROLOGIC REGIME, AQUIFER, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, COVERING, IRRIGATION SYSTEMS, WATERS, HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION, Water scarcity, CAPACITY, WATER USE PATTERNS, REMOTE SENSING, LEAD, HYDROLOGY, CATCHMENT, GLACIERS, SURFACE WATER, SALINE INTRUSION, GLOBAL WARMING, WATER CYCLE, WATER SHORTAGE, METERS, WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT, RAIN, AQUIFERS, ATMOSPHERE, GCM, WATER ALLOCATION, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, SNOW, CLIMATE DATA, Water resource management, GREENHOUSE, HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, DOMESTIC WATER, GROUNDWATER, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY PRODUCTION, FLOODING, ENGINEERING, WATER STORAGE, RIVER BASIN, WATER MANAGERS, HYDRODYNAMICS, ENERGY, Water balance, WATER TOWERS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, FORESTS, SURFACE WATER IRRIGATION, IRRIGATION, LESS, RUNOFF, INDIRECT RECHARGE, TEMPERATURE, DROUGHT, IPCC, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, STORAGE CAPACITY, PRECIPITATION, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, WATER SYSTEMS, IRRIGATORS, SEDIMENT LOAD, CLIMATOLOGY, GREENHOUSE GASES, CLEAN ENERGY, WATER YIELD, Climate change, WATER REQUIREMENTS, HYDROLOGIC CYCLE, FLOOD DAMAGE, BASINS, BENEFITS, RIVER DELTAS, SNOW MELT, DAMS, Hydrology, WATER ALLOCATIONS, FLOODS, Global warming, WATER SUPPLY, WATER USE, NATURAL RESOURCES, Water resources, CLIMATE, CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, COASTAL AREAS, INTERNATIONAL WATERS, WATER RESOURCES, Environmental science, ECOSYSTEM, Climate model, RESERVOIRS, EMISSION
Abstract

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment. The authors find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. The authors also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

Published
2013