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This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990) and future period (2011-2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last century, much of the United States experienced warming temperatures and changes in amount and intensity of precipitation. Changes in future climate conditions present additional risk to water and watershed managers. The most recent release of U.S. EPA's BASINS watershed modeling system includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) that provides new capabilities for assessing impacts of climate change on water resources. The BASINS CAT provides users with the ability to modify historical climate and conduct systematic sensitivity analyses of specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints to changes in climate using the BASINS models (Hydrologic Simulation Program -- FORTRAN (HSPF)). These capabilities are well suited for addressing questions about the potential impacts of climate change on key hydrologic and water quality goals using the watershed scale at which most important planning decisions are made. This paper discusses the concepts that motivated the CAT development effort; the resulting capabilities incorporated into BASINS CAT; and the opportunities that result from integrating climate assessment capabilities into a comprehensive watershed water quality modeling system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]