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Storm surges and waves are key climate-driven parameters affecting the design and operation of ports and other infrastructure on the coast. Reliable predictions of future storm surges and waves are not yet available for the west coast of Canada, and this data gap hinders effective climate risk assessment, planning and adaptation. This paper presents numerical simulations of storm surges and waves in British Columbia coastal waters under a future climate (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (RCP8.5). The numerical models were first forced by wind and surface pressure fields from the ERA-5 global reanalysis, and calibrated and validated using historical wave and water level records. The models were then driven by atmospheric data from four regional climate models (RCMs) to investigate potential changes in the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and extreme waves over the 21st century. The model outputs were analyzed to determine the potential impacts of climate change on storm surges and wave effects at key ports and transportation assets in western Canada. The study is the first of its kind to utilize unstructured, computational models to simulate storm surges and waves for the entire western Canada coastal region, while maintaining the high spatial resolution in coastal sub-basins needed to capture local dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While multifaceted, a chief aim when designating parks and protected areas is to support the preservation of biological diversity, in part, through representing and conserving the full range of landscape conditions observed throughout a representative area. Parks and protected areas are, however, typically developed using a static interpretation of current biodiversity and landscape conditions. The observed and potential climate change impacts to biodiversity have created a need to also contemplate how parks and protected areas will respond to climate change and how these areas will represent the future range of landscape conditions. To assess change in biodiversity, broad-scale ecosystem information can be sourced from indirect remotely sensed indicators. Quantifying biodiversity through indirect indicators allows characterization of inter-relationships between climate and biodiversity. Such characterizations support the assessment of possible implications of climatic change, as the indicators can be generated using modeled forecasts of future climatic conditions. In this paper we model and map impacts of climate change on British Columbia's parks and protected areas by quantifying change in a number of remotely sensed indicators of biodiversity. These indicators are based on the measured amount of incoming solar energy used by vegetation and map the overall annual energy utilization, variability (seasonality), and latent or baseline energy. We compare current conditions represented by parks and protected areas, to those forecasted in the year 2065. Our results indicate that parks and protected areas are forecasted to become more productive and less seasonal, due to increased vegetation productivity in higher elevation environments. While increased vegetation productivity may be beneficial for biodiversity overall, these changes will be particularly problematic for sensitive and specialist species. Future gaps in vegetation conditions protected by parks and protected areas are observed in the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains and the central interior region of British Columbia. Protected areas along the Coast Mountains, Vancouver Island highlands, and the Rocky Mountains show the greatest levels of change in the biodiversity indicators, including decreasing seasonality, with the Mountain Hemlock ecozone most at risk. Examples of large parks that are predicted to experience rapid change in vegetation characteristics include Strathcona, Garabaldi, and Kitlope. Our maps of future spatial distributions of indirect biodiversity indicators fill a gap in information products available for adaptive parks management and provide an opportunity for dialogue and further research on the use of future scenarios of landscape conditions in conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Armillaria altimontana is a fungus (Basidiomycota, Agaricomycetes, Agaricales, and Physalacriaceae) that is generally considered as a weak/opportunistic pathogen or saprophyte on many tree hosts. It widely occurs across the northwestern USA to southern British Columbia, Canada, but relatively little is known about its ecological role in the diverse forest ecosystems where it occurs. This review summarizes the biology and ecology of A. altimontana, including its identification, life cycle, distribution, host associations, and bioclimatic models under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study was to predict current and future flood susceptibility under three climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 (i.e., optimistic), RCP4.5 (i.e., business as usual), and RCP8.5 (i.e., pessimistic) employing four machine learning models, including Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN), and Naïve Bayes (NB). The study was conducted for two watersheds in Canada, namely Lower Nicola River, BC and Loup, QC. Three statistical metrics were used to validate the models: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, Figure of Merit, and F1-score. Findings indicated that the RF model had the highest accuracy in providing the flood susceptibility maps (FSMs). Moreover, the provided FSMs indicated that flooding is more likely to occur in the Lower Nicola River watershed than the Loup watershed. Following the RCP4.5 scenario, the area percentages of the flood susceptibility classes in the Loup watershed in 2050 and 2080 have changed by the following percentages from the year 2020 and 2050, respectively: Very Low = −1.68%, Low = −5.82%, Moderate = +6.19%, High = +0.71%, and Very High = +0.6% and Very Low = −1.61%, Low = +2.98%, Moderate = −3.49%, High = +1.29%, and Very High = +0.83%. Likewise, in the Lower Nicola River watershed, the changes between the years 2020 and 2050 and between the years 2050 and 2080 were: Very Low = −0.38%, Low = −0.81%, Moderate = −0.95%, High = +1.72%, and Very High = +0.42% and Very Low = −1.31%, Low = −1.35%, Moderate = −1.81%, High = +2.37%, and Very High = +2.1%, respectively. The impact of climate changes on future flood-prone places revealed that the regions designated as highly and very highly susceptible to flooding, grow in the forecasts for both watersheds. The main contribution of this study lies in the novel insights it provides concerning the flood susceptibility of watersheds in British Columbia and Quebec over time and under various climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed groundwater level records are relatively short (<100 years), limiting long-term studies of groundwater variability that could provide valuable insight into climate change effects. This study uses tree ring data from the International Tree Ring Database (ITRDB) and groundwater level data from 22 provincial observation wells to evaluate different approaches for reconstructing groundwater levels from tree ring widths in the mountainous southern interior of British Columbia, Canada. The twenty-eight reconstruction models consider the selection of observation wells (e.g., regional average groundwater level vs. wells classified by recharge mechanism) and the search area for potential tree ring records (climate footprint vs. North American Ecoregions). Results show that if the climate footprint is used, reconstructions are statistically valid if the wells are grouped according to recharge mechanism, with streamflow-driven and high-elevation recharge-driven wells (both snowmelt-dominated) producing valid models. Of all the ecoregions considered, only the Coast Mountain Ecoregion models are statistically valid for both the regional average groundwater level and high-elevation recharge-driven systems. No model is statistically valid for low-elevation recharge-driven systems (rainfall-dominated). The longest models extend the groundwater level record to the year 1500, with the highest confidence in the later portions of the reconstructions going back to the year 1800. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Highlights: This research presents a novel approach for comparing structural carbon allocation to tree growth and to climate in a dendrochronological analysis. Increasing temperatures reduced the carbon proportion of wood in some cases. Background and Objectives: Our goal was to estimate the structural carbon content of wood within hybrid white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) × engelmannii (Parry) grown in British Columbia, Canada, and compare the percent carbon content to wood properties and climate conditions of the region. Specific objectives included: (i) the determination of average incremental percent carbon, ring widths (RW), earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) widths, cell wall thickness, and density over time; (ii) the determination of differences between percent carbon in individual forest stands and between regions; and (iii) the evaluation of the relationships between percent carbon and climate variation over time. Methods: Trees were sampled from twelve sites in northern British Columbia. Wood cores were analyzed with standard dendrochronology techniques and SilviScan analysis. Percent structural carbon was determined using acetone extraction and elemental analysis for 5 year increments. Individual chronologies of wood properties and percent carbon, and chronologies grouped by region were compared by difference of means. Temperature and precipitation values from the regions were compared to the carbon chronologies using correlation, regression, and visual interpretation. Results: Significant differences were found between the percent structural carbon of wood in individual natural and planted stands; none in regional aggregates. Some significant relationships were found between percent carbon, RW, EW, LW, and the cell wall thickness and density values. Percent carbon accumulation in planted stands and natural stands was found in some cases to correlate with increasing temperatures. Natural stand percent carbon values truncated to the last 30 years of growth was shown as more sensitive to climate variation compared to the entire time series. Conclusions: Differences between the stands in terms of structural carbon proportion vary by site-specific climate characteristics in areas of central interior British Columbia. Wood properties can be good indicators of variation in sequestered carbon in some stands. Carbon accumulation was reduced with increasing temperatures; however, warmer late-season conditions appear to enhance growth and carbon accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]