Search

With the continuous improvement of shale oil and gas recovery technologies and achievements, a large amount of geological information and data have been accumulated for the description of shale reservoirs, and it has become possible to use machine learning methods for "sweet spots" prediction in shale oil and gas areas. Taking the Duvernay shale oil and gas field in Canada as an example, this paper attempts to build recoverable shale oil and gas reserve prediction models using machine learning methods and geological and development big data, to predict the distribution of recoverable shale oil and gas reserves and provide a basis for well location deployment and engineering modifications. The research results of the machine learning model in this study are as follows: ① Three machine learning methods were applied to build a prediction model and random forest showed the best performance. The R2 values of the built recoverable shale oil and gas reserves prediction models are 0.7894 and 0.8210, respectively, with an accuracy that meets the requirements of production applications; ② The geological main controlling factors for recoverable shale oil and gas reserves in this area are organic matter maturity and total organic carbon (TOC), followed by porosity and effective thickness; the main controlling factor for engineering modifications is the total proppant volume, followed by total stages and horizontal lateral length; ③ The abundance of recoverable shale oil and gas reserves in the central part of the study area is predicted to be relatively high, which makes it a favorable area for future well location deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maize (Zea mays) is a high-nitrogen (N)-demanding crop potentially contributing to nitrate contamination and emissions of nitrous oxide. The N fertilization is generally split between sowing time and the V6 stage. The right split N rate to apply at V6 and minimize environmental damage is challenging. Our objectives were to (1) predict maize response to added N at V6 using machine learning (ML) models; and (2) cross-check model outcomes by independent on-farm trials. We assembled 461 N trials conducted in Eastern Canada between 1992 and 2022. The dataset to predict grain yield comprised N dosage, weekly precipitations and corn heat units, seeding date, previous crop, tillage practice, soil series, soil texture, organic matter content, and pH. Random forest and XGBoost predicted grain yield accurately at the V6 stage (R2 = 0.78–0.80; RSME and MAE = 1.22–1.29 and 0.96–0.98 Mg ha−1, respectively). Model accuracy up to the V6 stage was comparable to that of the full-season prediction. The response patterns simulated by varying the N doses showed that grain yield started to plateau at 125–150 kg total N ha−1 in eight out of ten on-farm trials conducted independently. There was great potential for economic and environmental gains from ML-assisted N fertilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Devastating floods occur regularly around the world. Recently, machine learning models have been used for flood susceptibility mapping. However, even when these algorithms are provided with adequate ground truth training samples, they can fail to predict flood extends reliably. On the other hand, the height above nearest drainage (HAND) model can produce flood prediction maps with limited accuracy. The objective of this research is to produce an accurate and dynamic flood modeling technique to produce flood maps as a function of water level by combining the HAND model and machine learning. In this paper, the HAND model was utilized to generate a preliminary flood map; then, the predictions of the HAND model were used to produce pseudo training samples for a R.F. model. To improve the R.F. training stage, five of the most effective flood mapping conditioning factors are used, namely, Altitude, Slope, Aspect, Distance from River and Land use/cover map. In this approach, the R.F. model is trained to dynamically estimate the flood extent with the pseudo training points acquired from the HAND model. However, due to the limited accuracy of the HAND model, a random sample consensus (RANSAC) method was used to detect outliers. The accuracy of the proposed model for flood extent prediction, was tested on different flood events in the city of Fredericton, NB, Canada in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019. Furthermore, to ensure that the proposed model can produce accurate flood maps in other areas as well, it was also tested on the 2019 flood in Gatineau, QC, Canada. Accuracy assessment metrics, such as overall accuracy, Cohen's kappa coefficient, Matthews correlation coefficient, true positive rate (TPR), true negative rate (TNR), false positive rate (FPR) and false negative rate (FNR), were used to compare the predicted flood extent of the study areas, to the extent estimated by the HAND model and the extent imaged by Sentinel-2 and Landsat satellites. The results confirm that the proposed model can improve the flood extent prediction of the HAND model without using any ground truth training data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of a computationally efficient machine learning-based framework to understand the underlying causes for biases in climate model simulated fields is presented in this study. The framework consists of a two-step approach, with the first step involving the development of a Random Forest (RF) model, trained on observed data of the climate variable of interest and related predictors. The second step involves emulations of the climate variable of interest with the RF model developed in step one by replacing the observed predictors with those from the climate model one at a time. The assumption is that comparing these emulations with that of a reference emulation driven by all observed predictors can shed light on the contribution of respective predictor biases to the biases in the climate model simulation. The proposed framework is used to understand the biases in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model simulated surface soil moisture (SSM) for the April–September period, over a domain covering part of north-east Canada. The grid cell-based RF model, trained on daily SSM and related climate predictors (water availability, 2 m temperature, relative humidity, snowmelt, maximum snow water equivalent) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5), demonstrates great skill in emulating SSM, with root mean square error of 0.036. Comparison of the five RF emulations based on GEM predictors with that based on ERA5 predictors suggests that the biases in the mean April–September SSM can be attributed mainly to biases in three predictors: water availability, 2 m temperature and relative humidity. The regions where these predictors contribute to biases in SSM are mostly collocated with the regions where they are shown to be the among the top three influential predictors through the predictor importance analysis, i.e., 2 m temperature in the southern part of the domain, relative humidity in the northern part of the domain and water availability over rest of the domain. The framework, without having to undertake expensive simulations with the climate model, thus successfully identifies the main causes for SSM biases, albeit with slightly reduced skill for heavily perturbed simulations. Furthermore, identification of the causes for biases, by informing targeted climate model improvements, can lead to additional reductions in computational costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged as competent tools for identifying areas that are susceptible to flooding. The primary variables considered in most of these works include terrain models, lithology, river networks and land use. While several recent studies include average annual rainfall and/or temperature, other meteorological information such as snow accumulation and short-term intense rain events that may influence the hydrology of the area under investigation have not been considered. Notably, in Canada, most inland flooding occurs during the freshet, due to the melting of an accumulated snowpack coupled with heavy rainfall. Therefore, in this study the impact of several climate variables along with various hydro-geomorphological (HG) variables were tested to determine the impact of their inclusion. Three tests were run: only HG variables, the addition of annual average temperature and precipitation (HG-PT), and the inclusion of six other meteorological datasets (HG-8M) on five study areas across Canada. In HG-PT, both precipitation and temperature were selected as important in every study area, while in HG-8M a minimum of three meteorological datasets were considered important in each study area. Notably, as the meteorological variables were added, many of the initial HG variables were dropped from the selection set. The accuracy, F1, true skill and Area Under the Curve (AUC) were marginally improved when the meteorological data was added to the a parallel random forest algorithm (parRF). When the model is applied to new data, the estimated accuracy of the prediction is higher in HG-8M, indicating that inclusion of relevant, local meteorological datasets improves the result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2014, through the World-Class Tanker Safety System (WCTSS) initiative, the Government of Canada launched the Northern Marine Transportation Corridors (NMTC) concept. The corridors were created as a strategic framework to guide Federal investments in marine transportation in the Arctic. With new government investment, under the Oceans Protection Plan (OPP), the corridors initiative, known as the Northern Low-Impact Shipping Corridors, will continue to be developed. Since 2016, the Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS) has been using the corridors as a key layer in a geographic information system (GIS) model known as the CHS Priority Planning Tool (CPPT). The CPPT helps CHS prioritize its survey and charting efforts in Canada's key traffic areas. Even with these latest efforts, important gaps in the surveys still need to be filled in order to cover the Canadian waterways. To help further develop the safety to navigation and improve survey mission planning, CHS has also been exploring new technologies within remote sensing. Under the Government Related Initiatives Program (GRIP) of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), CHS has been investigating the potential use of Earth observation (EO) data to identify potential hazards to navigation that are not currently charted on CHS products. Through visual interpretation of satellite imagery, and automatic detection using artificial intelligence (AI), CHS identified several potential hazards to navigation that had previously gone uncharted. As a result, five notices to mariners (NTMs) were issued and the corresponding updates were applied to the charts. In this study, two AI approaches are explored using deep learning and machine learning techniques: the convolution neural network (CNN) and random forest (RF) classification. The study investigates the effectiveness of the two models in identifying shoals in Sentinel-2 and WorldView-2 satellite imagery. The results show that both CNN and RF models can detect shoals with accuracies ranging between 79 and 94% over two study sites; however, WorldView-2 images deliver results with higher accuracy and lower omission errors. The high processing times of using high-resolution imagery and training a deep learning model may not be necessary in order to quickly scan images for shoals; but training a CNN model with a large training set may lead to faster processing times without the need to train individual images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]