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Global warming and sea-level rise (SLR) induced by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can cause coral bleaching, death, and submergence of the world's coral reefs. Adopting the GIS and RS methods, we modeled how these two stressors combine to influence the future growth of the atolls and table reefs of three archipelagoes in the South China Sea (SCS), based on geomorphic and ecological zones. A large-scale survey of the coral communities in Xisha Islands in 2014, Dongsha Islands in 2014–2016 and Nansha Islands in 2007 provided zone-specific process datasets on the range of reef accretion rates. Sea surface temperature and extreme (minimum and maximum) SLR data above 1985–2005 levels by 2100 in the SCS were derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model projected that: (1) the Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands may have a better growth status, because the reef flat biotic sparse zone may be recolonized with hard coral and become a biotic dense zone; (2) the southern Nansha Islands reefs have a risk of stopping growing due to their earlier annual bleaching years. The increasing of water depths of these reefs is stronger in the RCP with more emissions. Our approach offers insights into the best-case and worst-case impacts of two global environmental pressures on potential future reef growth under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are important as they can help to maintain ecological balance, biological resources, and species diversity on earth. However, they are globally threatened by human activities and climate change. As live coral cover (LCC) is regarded as an important measure of the health of coral reefs, analysis on LCC change associated with environmental parameters, such as chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), sea surface temperature (SST), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), is of great value. Research on this front would help us comprehend the changes in coral reefs induced by human activities and global changes. Instead of using spasmodically in-field-measured environmental parameters, in this study, we chose to combine the successive Chl-a, SST, and PAR products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with historic LCC records to establish an empirical relationship using nonlinear optimization. Thereafter, the established relationship was further used to discuss some possible developments of LCCs. According to the experiments, we concluded that the degradation of the LCC around Weizhou Island may be mainly caused by human-activity-caused eutrophication. Besides, we also showed that even if the Chl-a and the PAR can keep constant with current average levels, the corals around Weizhou Island may still be in a risk of disappearing between 2120–2140 as the SST continues to rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]