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Projections of both the short- and long-term course of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in Great Britain have demonstrated great uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge of key aspects of the biology and epidemiology of this new disease. Such projections are sensitive to assumptions made regarding the pattern of exposure to BSE-infected animals, the effectiveness of control measures introduced in 1989 and 1996 in reducing this exposure, the functional form of the incubation period distribution and patterns of age-dependent susceptibility/exposure. This paper provides short-term projections for vCJD onsets using the time- and age-distributed onset data to the end of 2000, with results that are directly comparable to the other papers in this issue. These results demonstrate the continued uncertainty in the future scale of this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incubation period of the new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) from infection to clinical onset and the eventual impact of the disease remain major concerns. Based on i) epidemiological conceptualization of human exposure to BSE contaminated material, ii) exponentially decreasing susceptibility after 15 years of age, and iii) typical incubation period (IP) distributions for time from infection to onset, we have previously estimated mean incubation period and projected number of vCJD cases. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of these estimates with respect to i-iii using the UK's 113 vCJD cases with clinical onset before December 2000. Mean incubation period was estimated at 16.4 years (95% CI 11.4-24.8), 15.9 years (95% CI 11.4-22.0), 14.1 years (95% CI 10.4-24.2) with the log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distributions respectively. Corresponding predictions for the total size of the epidemic ranged from 183 to 304. Maximal susceptibility to infection between 1.3 and 15.9 years and decreasing by 15% per year of age thereafter yielded the best fit. The shape of the IP distribution did not affect the predictions. In summary, within a set of reasonable assumptions, mean incubation period for vCJD ranged from 15 to 20 years, and the eventual impact of vCJD was a few hundred patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming that human exposure to BSE was through beef mechanically recovered meat (MRM) consumed as burgers and other meat products, we estimated the French consumption of different food items containing beef MRM, and compared these consumptions for French and British populations. To estimate consumption of meat products containing bovine MRM, we used dietary data from national individual and household food surveys conducted between 1980 and 1995. After reconciliation of consumption data between the available surveys and calendar year adjustments, we simulated consumption of one-thousandth of the French population. Consumption was estimated by birth cohort and gender, and for the periods 1980-89 and 1990-95 separately. Data showed that burgers (including manufactured minced meat) represented around 75-80% of the individual consumption of meat products containing MRM, and that consumption of burgers increased by 40% over the 1980-95 period. In all age groups, consumption was higher in males than in females. In both genders, the 1940-69 birth cohort had the highest mean consumption of burgers and other beef products containing MRM. Similar findings have been reported for the UK population. Estimated consumption of bovine MRM per calendar year increased markedly over the study period, concomitantly with an increase of bovine carcasses imported from the UK. Comparison of the 1980-1995 pattern of bovine MRM consumption in the UK and France indicated thatthis consumption peaked later in France than in the UK. This difference might result in different temporal pattern of vCJD incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]