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The authors explore the trends in the human health risks caused by air pollution and changing levels of weather and climate comfort on the territory of Russia in 2020–2050 under two climate change scenarios. Generally, the dynamics of risks is expected to be moderate. It will presumably be characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion by the country's climate zones. In certain areas, primarily in Siberia, very noticeable trends have been revealed. The paper shows a need for additional attention when planning the measures of adaptation to climate change in southern and central regions of European Russia, most of Western Siberia, the Magadan oblast and Kamchatka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overview of papers dealing with the analysis of current and future climate change on the territory of Russia and their impact on the crop productivity is presented. Using the reanalysis data for 1950–2020, trends in air temperature and precipitation are estimated for different regions of Russia. A correlation was found between changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores an almost untouched topic in the fast-growing climate econometrics literature-the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995-2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but non-linear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. In mild warming scenarios, according to our estimates Russia saves roughly USD 3-4 billion in regional government expenditures between 2000 and the 2020s without undertaking adaptation measures, depending on the scenario. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1-2 $$^{\circ }$$ C). Larger temperature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamentally new integrated approach to the state activity on the adaptation to changing environmental conditions, namely, the territorial planning of land use is proposed by the example of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation being the most vulnerable region to climate change. Adaptation measures for natural ecosystems are scientifically grounded for the Arctic region: the prevention of permafrost surface cover disturbances, the minimization of other types of anthropogenic impact and pollution, the maintenance and increase in surface albedo in winter. The examples of development of a dual indicator system are given: for monitoring the implementation of measures and adaptation efficiency (the quantitative markers of climate-caused damage). The analysis of all indicators in the adaptation efficiency monitoring system, as well as the projections of indicators for 5–10 years ahead help to make reasoned management decisions to correct the applied adaptation measures. The practical application of the results includes the use of the developed approaches in the sectoral and regional plans and at the second stage of the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data on modern climate and environmental changes in the northwestern region of Russia are compared with the public perception of such changes. The analysis reveals that unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact on the public perception than long-term periods of climate change. The majority of population consider climate and environmental changes locally, do not associate them with global drivers, and are not prepared to adaptation. The numerical climate perception index is developed to characterize the awareness of population about the climate change and preparedness to adaptation. The index can be used for improving the awareness of policymakers for regional climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Vuoksi watershed in eastern Finland were studied in order to assess the possibilities to adapt lake regulation to the projected changes. A conceptual watershed model and several climate scenarios were used to estimate the effects of climate change on three lakes in the Vuoksi watershed for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. The adaptation possibilities were studied by using alternative regulation strategies. In Lake Pielinen the impacts of these water level changes on social, economic and ecological indicators were assessed with two different outflow strategies. According to the results, climate change will alter snow accumulation and melt and therefore cause large seasonal changes in runoff and water levels. Runoff and water levels will decrease during late spring and summer and increase during late autumn and winter. In some lakes current calendar-based regulation practices and limits, which have been developed based on past hydrology, may not be appropriate in the future. Modifying the regulation practices and limits is a necessary and effective way to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]