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This study empirically estimates farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in Pakistan's agricultural sectors. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed to determine a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues. The survey was conducted by distributing structured questionnaires among Pakistani farmers. The study found that 67 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme. However, several socioeconomic and motivational factors exert greater influence on their willingness to pay (WTP). This paper specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support attempts by policy makers to design an efficient adaptation framework for mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is a key component of climate policy, yet we have limited and fragmented understanding of if and how adaptation is currently taking place. In this paper, we document and characterize the current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable 'hotspot' nations in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract evidence of adaptation initiatives. In total, 100 peer-reviewed articles, 161 grey literature documents, and 27 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications were reviewed, constituting 760 adaptation initiatives. Results indicate a significant increase in reported adaptations since 2006. Adaptations are primarily being reported from African and low-income countries, particularly those nations receiving adaptation funds, involve a combination of groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability, and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels of government or collaboration across nations. Gaps in our knowledge of adaptation policy and practice are particularly notable in North Africa and Central Asia, and there is limited evidence of adaptation initiatives being targeted at vulnerable populations including socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, children, indigenous peoples, and the elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, efforts to move towards a low carbon economy have been increasingly coupled with the acknowledgement that we also need to develop climate resilient economies, capable of adapting and responding to changes in climate. To shift society in these directions we need to quantify impacts in relation to these objectives and develop cost-effective interventions. Techniques for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions are relatively well established and enable identification of hotspots where there is emissions reduction potential. However, there are no established techniques to assess and quantify adaptation vulnerability issues and identify hotspots for intervention. This paper presents work undertaken at a European level with the objective of identifying potential hotspots where ecosystem services may be vulnerable to climate change and thus where intervention may be required under the European Rural Development Programme. A pragmatic and relatively simple approach is presented, based on data that is readily available across Europe. The vulnerability assessments cover: Water (quality: dilution and filtration, regulation: flooding and provision); soils (erosion and organic matter); and biodiversity (forest fires, migration and pollination). The framework and assessments presented are considered fit for purpose (at a basic level) and they are potentially valuable tools for targeting limited resources to achieve desirable outcomes. They also contribute towards providing a better understanding of the climate change challenges we face and support the formulation of solutions to optimally address those challenges. There is scope to further improvement and a number of options are discussed and explored within this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of regional vulnerability to climate change has become an important issue in climate change adaptation. In order to aid decision making in terms of prioritising adaptation action or allocating resources for adaptation measures, both scholars and policy makers emphasise the need for comprehensive and spatially explicit vulnerability studies. Adaptive capacity is not only an important part of vulnerability assessments, it also underlies and enables the governing of adaptation activities, thus making it an issue relevant to policy. Hence, the assessment of adaptive capacity gives decision makers on international, national and regional level important information to develop adaptation policy. Drawing on current vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies, the objective of this paper is to present a framework that structures adaptive capacity assessments based on science-policy interaction, discussing the objectives of the assessment, the methodology and the use of results. The framework is applied to two examples: a pan-European assessment of adaptive capacity and an assessment of the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector in the European Alps, both on the regional level. The main findings show how decisions related to methodology can influence the use of results in decision making. In conclusion, this paper contributes to the literature by arguing that more attention needs to be paid to assessment design in order to better support the mobilisation of adaptive capacity for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity is one of the most critical issues facing agriculture today. To understand how people manage the risk of water scarcity and growing pressures of increased climate variability, exploring perceptions of risk and how these perceptions feed into response behaviour and willingness to adapt is critical. This paper revisits existing frameworks that conceptualise perceptions of environmental risk and decision-making, and uses empirical evidence from an in-depth study conducted in Rajasthan, India, to emphasise how individual and collective memories, and experience of past extreme events shape current definitions and future expectations of climatic risks. In doing so, we demonstrate the value of recognising the role of local perceptions of water scarcity (and how they vary between and within households) in constructing social vulnerability. This expanded understanding of risk perception is critical for incentivising individual adaptation and strengthening local adaptation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (~ 157,000 km2) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed, energy systems will be highly vulnerable to extreme weather events or shifts in weather patterns, such as changes in precipitation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved in climate projections and response strategies, any strategy implementation should perform adequately regardless of which scenario actually materialises. In this paper, we analyse the effects of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear energy sector using the Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method. The key feature of the method is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by (min, max) values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option’s performance can be visually inspected for robustness. The method can be utilised as a “module” of its own in different uncertainty management approaches. Based on the case study, the presented adaptation strategies “Maintaining industrial production and final demand” and “Smart grid infrastructure” were more robust than the “No planned or automatic adaptation”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into the climate change and migration nexus has often focussed solely on how people move in response to the impacts of variability and change in climate. This notion often ignores the nature of migration as a tried and tested livelihood choice amid a variety of socio-economic and environmental opportunities and limitations. This paper closely looks at the behavioural aspects of migration decision-making in Bangladesh in the context of changes in its economy, and, increasingly, exposure to the impacts of climate variability and change. We find that villagers in areas particularly affected by increasing climatic stresses and shocks are diversifying their traditional livelihood strategies by migrating. Environmental factors, including climatic stresses and shocks, often make such shifts even more necessary. Although the migrants' primary motivation is better income, in effect, migration becomes an effective form of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study in three geographically distinct places of Bangladesh, we propose that migration is a socially acceptable behaviour that occurs in the context of perceived environmental change and climate variability. Migration decisions are mediated by a set of 'behavioural factors' that assesses the efficacy of different responses to opportunities and challenges, their socio-cultural acceptance and the ability to respond successfully. This understanding has policy relevance for climate change adaptation, in terms of both how migrants are perceived and how their movements are planned for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic factors make mountain communities around the world vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, and reliance on recreation and tourism can increase vulnerability to the secondary economic impacts.The goal of this research was to investigate the current state of community adaptation planning in the Southern Rocky Mountain region of North America. Using original survey data this paper discusses the challenges that community and county officials currently face, the perceived effects of future climate change in this region, and the perceived barriers to adaptation planning and hurdles to adaptation implementation. Results show lack of resources, information and political will are the most commonly reported barriers to adaptation. This paper also examines the connectivity between mountain communities and the surrounding federal public lands. Fifty one percent of respondents report that decisions made on nearby public lands frequently or always affect planning and decision making in their community. Collaborative efforts between these entities are proposed as a way to reduce the resource burden of adaptation planning for both entities. Finally, this paper discusses how attitudes and beliefs about climate change affect responses to questions about adaptation planning. On average, respondents who report higher levels of concern about and belief in climate change and those who are better informed about climate change report higher levels of adaptation planning. Elected officials in this sample have, on average, lower concern about and belief in climate change than bureaucratic respondents. Thus changes in elected official composition or improved leadership on climate change planning by incumbent officials could facilitate progress on adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project's general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of various adaptation options is dependent on the capacity to plan, design and implement them. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity is, therefore, crucial for effective responses to climate change. This paper offers an assessment of adaptive capacity across a range of sectors in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper has four parts, including (1) an overview of adaptive capacity, in particular as a learning process; (2) a description of the various methods used to determine adaptive capacity; (3) a synthesis of the determinants of adaptive capacity; and (4) the identification of mechanisms to build adaptive capacity in the region. We conclude that the major issue impacting adaptive capacity is not the availability of physical resources but the dominant social, political and institutional culture of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South East Queensland's (SEQ's) centralised electricity system is under great pressure to adapt. Climate change is converging with socio-economic, demographic and technological changes to create a 'perfect storm' for the region's electricity system. Distribution networks are particularly affected, with these factors contributing to tremendous peak demand growth, about double the rate of growth in average demand in recent years. This paper reviews how Australia's electricity system is adapting to multiple drivers of peak electricity demand. We use socio-technical transitions theory to understand the temporal interconnected social and technical dimensions of adaptation in this setting. Specifically, we present an historical narrative of the emergence of centralisation in Australia and outline the peak demand problem in SEQ and review adaptation options from the international literature. We also analyse the interactions between key social groups and their adaptation responses over the past decade. Our analysis shows that adaptation has become a contested process between supply-chain actors and end-users, each with different economic objectives, adaptation needs and capacities. The resulting adaptation dynamic that is emerging shows worrying signs of maladaptation. Implications for market governance and urban policy and research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to climate change in agricultural settings depends on understanding farmers' perceptions of the nature of climate change, their agency in adapting and the efficacy of adaptive measures themselves. Such knowledge can improve mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses the limited understanding of how farmers appraise their private adaptive measures and influential factors. It uses data from structured interviews with 598 rice farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Based on protection motivation theory, farmers' assessments of private adaptive measures were measured by perceived self-efficacy, perceived adaptation efficacy and perceived adaptation cost. Multiple regressions were used to understand significant factors affecting those assessments. Some demographic and socio-economic factors, belief in climate change, information and objective resources were found to influence farmers' adaptation assessments. It is shown that the sources and quality of information are particularly important. The improvement of both the accessibility and usefulness of local services (e.g. irrigation, agricultural extension, credit and health care) is deemed a necessity for successful adaptation strategies in the Mekong Delta. The paper also shows the application of PMT in measuring farmers' appraisals of private adaptive measures to climate change, thereby opening this area for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. Methods: We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the 'counterfactual method' to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation. Results: We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Conclusions: Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Melaleuca consists of around 260 species covering over eight million hectares (including native and introduced species) and distributed mostly in Australia, but also occurring in South-East Asia, the Southern United States and the Caribbean. Melaleuca populations predominantly occur in wetland or/and coastal ecosystems where they have been significantly affected by climate change. This paper assesses the potential responses of the Melaleuca genus to climate change, based on the synthesis of worldwide published data. The main findings include: (i) that the Melaleuca genus has a rich species diversity, and significant phenotypic diversity in a variety of ecosystems; (ii) they demonstrate significant local adaptation to harsh conditions; and (iii) the fossil records and taxon biology indicate the evolution of the Melaleuca genus began around 38 million years ago and they have survived several significant climatic alterations, particularly a shift towards cooler and drier climates that has occurred over this period. These findings show that the Melaleuca genus is highly resilient and adaptable and based on this, this paper argues that Melaleuca can adapt to climate change through Wright's 'migrational adaptation', and can be managed to achieve sustainable benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper undertakes an in-depth analysis of six least developed countries (LDCs) in South and Southeast Asia to assess the extent of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development plans by reviewing their National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs), national development plans, and Strategic Programs for Climate Resilience (SPCRs) (where available). The paper proposes two perspectives to analyze the level of mainstreaming and five factors that may affect such a level. The results show that there is a significant difference in the success of their mainstreaming efforts: mainstreaming is relatively advanced in Bangladesh, limited in Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Maldives, and Nepal, and still minimal in Bhutan and Cambodia. Among the factors, the study finds that the inter-ministerial coordination supported by the highest levels of government is most relevant to the success of mainstreaming, which is measured by the integration of climate adaptation consideration into development priorities and a country's own initiatives, particularly those involving budget allocation. Recognition of the need for mainstreaming and monitoring and evaluation also affect the success of mainstreaming efforts in LDCs. Another important factor is to make adaptation plans compatible with national development plans in terms of their time horizon, and SPCRs effectively facilitate this process. As all countries still require external support for advancing mainstreaming, the role of development partners is instrumental. The paper points to issues that need to be incorporated in the relevant NAPAs including updating to facilitate mainstreaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines an issue that is becoming increasingly relevant as the pressures of a warming planet, changing climate and changing ecosystems ramp up. The broad context for the paper is the intragenerational, intergenerational, and interspecies equity implications of changing the climate and the value orientations of adapting to such change. In addition, the need to stabilize the planetary climate by urgent mitigation of change factors is a foundational ethical assumption. In order to avoid further animal and plant extinctions, or at the very least, their increased vulnerability to becoming rare and endangered; the systematic assisted colonization of 'at risk' species is being seriously considered by scientists and managers of biodiversity. The more practical aspects of assisted colonization have been covered in the conservation biology literature; however, the ethical implications of such actions have not been extensively examined. Our discussion of the value issues, using a novel case study approach, will rectify the limited ethical analysis of the issue of assisted colonization of species in the face of climate change pressures. Beyond sustainability ethics, both animal and environmental ethical approaches will be used and intrinsic versus instrumental value orientations in the literature shall form the basis of our discussion. After the application of all the ethical approaches to the case studies, we conclude that without mitigation and the prospect of a future stable climate, assisted colonization will be involved in an inherently unethical process and a 'move and lose it' outcome. With mitigation, there is wide-ranging ethical support for assisted colonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers’ adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs-benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a ‘Need-Based Adaptation’ planning incorporating farmers’ perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the relationship between specific household traits (region of residence, head of household occupation, financial diversity, female level of education, land and animal ownership, social capital, and climate perception) and choice of specific adaptation strategies used by households in two sites in Baja California Sur, Mexico, during a severe drought from 2006 to 2012 using survey data and key informant interviews. We analyzed the co-occurrence of household traits adopting different drought adaptation strategies, then applied Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to examine the relationship between traits and strategies and integrated interview data to understand how rancheros perceive associations. We found evidence of diversity among households within the larger cultural group, both in the types of resources they have available and in the adaptation strategies they select. However, the most robust finding across the analyses appeared to be urban access; that is, the more a household was able to access urban services including piped water, the less likely they were to have used one of the drought adaptation strategies under study. These findings suggest that social structure and public investments are stronger predictors of smallholder adaptation rather than individual household traits. We also found that rancheros seem to rely less on traditional environmental migration to adapt to drought and rather settle in key watershed zones. We call for targeted policies to address inequities to access fresh water, including urban water, during drought times for the benefit of overall watershed health and the sustainability of rural ranchero livelihoods as they evolve to respond to climatological and economic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable urban infrastructure transition is perhaps the biggest challenge confronting cities in the global south in a time of climate change. Fast-growing cities are increasingly faced with deficiencies in the provisioning of public infrastructures, such as delivering water and sewage treatment and mitigating the risk of flooding to large segments of the population. Problems such as flooding encapsulate both structural and individual dimensions of adaptation. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework to analyze urban adaptation to increasing flood risk in the capital city of Belem in the Brazilian Amazon. Our analysis focuses on two domains of adaptive capacity to floods: generic capacity (provisioning of basic infrastructure and services) and specific capacity (effective flooding response, proactive strategies for risk reduction). We combined data from census sector and household semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, observational and archival data, and photo documentation to analyze both capacities in the city of Belém. Our findings indicated deficiency and intra-urban variability of both generic (water supply, sanitation, waste management, and adequate storm drainage) and specific capacities (specific individual and community and political actions for flood mitigation). However, significant inequalities exist across sectors of the population. Poorest urban sectors present higher deficits of generic adaptive capacity related to infrastructure. The expansion of vast areas of informal settlements, lack of basic infrastructure, and failed projects to reduce flood risk also challenge the specific adaptive capacity of households. A perception of corruption associated with public projects and high levels of violence also prevent cooperation and collective action among residents affected by flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research that projects biophysical changes under climate change is more advanced than research that projects socio-economic changes. There is a need in adaptation planning for informed socio-economic projections as well as analysis of how these changes may exacerbate or reduce vulnerability. Our focus in this paper is on the delivery of time-sensitive socio-economic information that can better support anticipatory adaptation planning approaches. Using a ‘multiple lines of evidence’ approach based on Australian Bureau of Statistics’ data (2010/2011), we examine the socio-economic vulnerability of the grazing sector located on Australia’s east coast. We profile the east coast grazing sector through an overview of the composition of its workforce and the value of grazing commodities produced. We then assess the potential vulnerability of the grazing sector using spatial snapshots of five factors known to shape socio-economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland: (1) reliance on agriculture, (2) geographic remoteness, (3) socio-economic disadvantage, (4) economic diversity and (5) age. Our assessment of the east coast grazing sector reveals six subregions characterised by high potential socio-economic vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. We find high percentages of labour forces employed in agriculture, geographic remoteness and age (high percentages of owner/managers and employees in younger age groups) to be drivers of vulnerability. Finally, we evaluate the ways in which these vulnerabilities may be exacerbated or reduced in light of emerging environmental, economic and social trends. This approach complements demographic projection methods to deliver time-sensitive socio-economic information to support anticipatory adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper "soft measures" and more costly "hard" irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country’s population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to implement adjustments in production and marketing, as well as to mitigate the impact of climate variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the financial viability of a series of state trust funds designed to strategically provide financial products to support interventions advanced in the name of climate change adaptation and resilience in the New York metropolitan region. This paper evaluates the proposition that the regional resilience trust funds (RRTFs) could be feasibly capitalized by a surcharge on insurance (Proposition A). Second, the paper evaluates the proposition that the RRTF could sustainably support a range of grants and financial products that could accommodate 100% of states’ unmet resilience needs (Proposition B). The findings of this research support an affirmation of the feasibility of the RRTF pursuant to Proposition A. Consistent with Proposition B, this paper provides evidence in support of a sustainable portfolio strategy that can ultimately be operated independent of the insurance surcharges. However, with the exception of Connecticut, under the modeled assumptions, the RRTFs could not could fulfill 100% of the unmet resilience needs. This paper provides a broader strategic understanding of how investment products and portfolios can be designed to operate in the uncertainties associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models predict temperature rises and changes in precipitation regimes that will shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural crops in Nepal. Understanding the influence of climate change on local climates and the suitability of specific sites for the production of individual crop types at present and in the future is crucial to increasing local crop resilience and ensuring the long-term viability of plantations—especially of high-value, perennial tree crops that require significant investment. This paper focuses on two cash crops, Macadamia and Juglans. A literature review summarises data on temperature, precipitation, and other macro- and microclimatic requirements of both genera. On this basis, we investigate the short- and long-term suitability of areas in Nepal for production of the two crops by means of a spatial model based on extensive in situ measurements, meteorological data, and climatic layers from the WorldClim dataset. Finally, we track changes in potential cultivation area under four Representative Concentration Pathways. Results show that climatic requirements for the cultivation of Macadamia and Juglans are fulfilled across a large part of Nepal at present and in the future: the total suitable area for both trees shrinks only marginally under all four scenarios. However, suitable areas shift considerably in spatial and altitudinal terms, meaning that some currently productive areas will become unproductive in the future, while currently unproductive ones will become productive. We conclude that the consideration of macro- and microclimatic changes in agricultural planning is essential to long-term agricultural success in Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hundreds of thousands of significant archaeological and cultural heritage sites (cultural sites) along the coasts of every continent are threatened by sea level rise, and many will be destroyed. This wealth of artefacts and monuments testifies to human history, cosmology and identity. While cultural sites are especially important to local and Indigenous communities, a stall in coordinated global action means adaptation at a local scale is often unsupported. In response, this paper produces a practical climate change risk analysis methodology designed for independent, community-scale management of cultural sites. It builds on existing methods that prioritise sites most at risk from climate impacts, proposing a field survey that integrates an assessment of the relative cultural value of sites with assessment of exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts. The field survey also stands as a monitoring program and complements an assessment of organisational adaptive capacity. The preliminary field survey was tested by Indigenous land managers in remote northern Australia at midden and rock art sites threatened by sea level rise, extreme flood events and a range of non-climactic hazards. A participatory action research methodology-incorporating planning workshops, semi-structured interviews and participant observations-gave rise to significant modifications to the preliminary field survey as well as management prioritisation of 120 sites. The field survey is anticipated to have global application, particularly among marginalised and remote Indigenous communities. Well-planned and informed participation, with community control, monitoring and well-informed actions, will contribute significantly to coordinated global and regional adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a “slick hair” gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermo-tolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat-resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate changes, farmers in developing countries seek to employ strategies to help them sustain food production. The objectives of this paper were to identify adaptation strategies in response to climate change and the determinants for their adoption, and to explore the impact of these strategies on food security. The analysis was based on a survey of 900 small-scale farmers in a semi-arid (Dodoma) and a semi-humid (Morogoro) region in Tanzania. Farmers in the semi-humid region tended to diversify their crops, i.e. added additional crop types. Given the more challenging environment in the semi-arid region, farmers there changed their portfolio of crops, i.e. substituted some crops or cultivars with others. Logistic regressions highlighted higher tolerance to risk, land ownership, education and experiences of farmers as drivers of adoption, while income diversification had a negative effect. The propensity score matching approach showed that adopters of climate-smart strategies are on-average more food-secure. These users showed a more diverse pattern of food consumption, greater protein intake and better economic access to food. Changing crop portfolios can help households to cope with climate-related shocks such as droughts and thus appears to be the best performing strategy, especially in terms of more stable food provisioning throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand why climate information is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and scientific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was performed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innovators, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes 'good' science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations mediate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal partnership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowledge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist-user interactions may fail to deliver more 'usable' climate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less 'integrated' in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes effects of forage-legume intercropping on grain and fodder yield, land equivalent ratio, residual soil fertility, disease and insect pest reduction in mixed crop-livestock systems in Africa. In particular, it discusses the potential benefit of forage-legume intercropping in improving productivity, resource use efficiency and resilience of the system under climate change. Research undertaken in Africa demonstrates that intercropping forage legumes with cereals improves land intensification due to improvement in overall yield and soil fertility, and reduced risk of crop failure owing to rainfall variability, diseases, weeds and pests. Forage from intercropped legumes improves the intake of dietary nitrogen, digestibility of poor-quality feed, animal performance and efficiency of roughage feed utilization by ruminants. The improvement in digestibility alone leads to 15-30% reduction in methane emission per unit of animal product. Additional role that legumes may play includes lowering erosion (20-30%), reducing nitrogen leaching and carbon losses, and promoting carbon sequestration. Nitrogen fixed by legumes was on average 45 kg N/ha, and this ranges between 4 and 217 kg N/ha for herbaceous legumes and 8 and 643 kg N/ha for fodder tree species. Despite the many benefits of forage-legume intercropping, the current adoption rate in sub-Saharan Africa is very low. Future research aimed at selection of compatible varieties, appropriate plant geometry and temporal arrangement of the various intercrops under different locations and management scenarios, and minimizing the confounding effects of water, soil, light, microclimate and seeds could enhance adoption of the technology in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic framework as a foundation for identifying and organising barriers and opportunities in terms of three broad phases of the adaptation process, i.e. (1) understanding the problem, (2) planning adaptation options and (3) managing implementation of such options. Data come from the analysis of documents (e.g. policy, plans and reports) and a survey of 49 representatives from 42 organisations (e.g. government, environmental non-governmental organisations, businesses and local industry and professional associations). Nineteen barriers and/or opportunities pertaining to the different phases of the adaptation process were identified. Three of those barriers (i.e. competing priorities, existing management context and existing ecological context) are our additions to the initial list of common barriers proposed in the diagnostic framework. Barriers pertaining to the understanding phase were the most frequently noted by respondents. The understanding phase was also one which most of the barriers were nevertheless considered as opportunities. Emerging critical barriers and/or opportunities for climate change adaptation included perception of signal, availability and accessibility of information, existing management context and leadership. We propose that addressing these barriers and opportunities would involve improving perception about climate change and availability and accessibility of information, fostering anticipatory planned adaptation through the existing management context and developing leadership for adaptation. Findings from this study may prove useful to other jurisdictions, particularly those where climate adaptation is at its early stages of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global cities are taking a leadership role in climate change adaptation. Increasing numbers of cities are creating climate adaptation plans and strategies, and a wide range of international organizations are developing tools and programs to promote and support further planning, despite the fact that the few studies to date that have evaluated adaptation planning have found it to be ineffective: focused more on broad visions than specific actions. To understand why cities continue to engage in adaptation planning, what benefits planners anticipate, and whether these benefits can be achieved through vision-oriented strategies as well as action-based plans, this study reports on a qualitative case study of the creation and adoption of the 2011 London, United Kingdom, Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. Results from interviews with participants and stakeholders indicate the London Strategy was consciously developed as a vision-setting strategy and was successful in: raising awareness of cross-sectoral risks, coordinating pre-existing adaptation efforts, validating stakeholder engagement, providing political authorization for use of resources and personnel, and creating continuity of purpose across changing political administrations. To accurately capture these benefits in other urban adaptation planning efforts will require a new evaluation approach. Based on the London case, this paper proposes future adaptation strategies be evaluated according to how well they build the adaptive capacity of city institutions to enable ongoing adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change continues to affect food production and farmers incur additional costs to adopt appropriate adaptation strategies to combat its effects and attain food security. To enhance adaptive and sustainable coping strategies and food security, it is necessary to study the opportunity costs of implementing climate adaptations and how they influence the net revenue of farmers. Therefore, the study empirically investigates adaptation to climate change and the net revenue of cassava farmers in Southwest Nigeria. The primary data used for this study were collected through a well-structured questionnaire for 221 respondents. The analytical methods used were descriptive statistics, paired sample tests, and multiple regression. Analysis revealed that the majority (55%) of the sampled cassava farmers employed planting different varieties and using agrochemicals as their main adaptation strategies. The results revealed that insufficient funding and labour shortage were the main barriers to adaptation in the study area. The results of opportunity cost on net revenue and costs using paired samples test revealed that cassava farmers derived and perceived the utility and the net benefits using adaptation measures than when it is not used. The result of the regression showed that climate variables such as adaptation options, rainfall, and access to climate information are co-joint with socioeconomic and production factors to determine the average net revenue in the area. Therefore, the study suggests that the costs of adaptation resources should be subsidized by the government at affordable prices for the farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent 6th Assessment Report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been damning to the world. An overwhelming amount of evidence that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) can contribute to stabilising or reversing the course of impacts of climate change is now common. Given the likely update of NDC measures compounded by their complexities and limited resources, it is imperative to adopt effective Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) systems to ensure that NDCs achieve their planned objectives. Effective roll-out and M&E of NDCs require full participation from all actors in various countries. However, despite existing evidence that shows the developing countries are the most affected by climate change, the role of their researchers in climate change research is not known. Therefore, the need to investigate the global North–South disparities and develop an agenda for future research about NDCs is imperative. To address this gap, a systematic review was undertaken using appropriate terms in Web of Science, Dimensions and ScienceDirect to identify relevant literature. The analysis of the identified literature led to two main findings. Firstly, most studies about NDCs are conducted by global North research institutes and researchers with very little involvement of those from the global South. Secondly, there is a global paucity of research about M&E of NDCs measures. As a major recommendation, while countries should equitably contribute to rolling out NDC projects, research should play a key role and should be inclusive as possible representing voices from the global North and South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed smallholder maize farmers' perceptions of climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The study used a cross-sectional quantitative approach, with smallholder farmers selected based on farm size (less than 10 hectares). Using simple random sampling techniques, 210 smallholder farmers in South Kivu Province was selected from October and November 2021. The data were analyzed using frequency analysis, non-parametric Mann–Whitney U-tests, Tobit regression model and structural equations modeling, which demonstrated that demographic and socioeconomic factors influenced smallholder farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change. The findings revealed that the level of education, size of the field, and activities of smallholder farmers had significant effects on climate change perception and adaptation strategies. Smallholder farmers' perceptions had a negative (p < 1%) influence on maize smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change. Common efforts should be made to encourage smallholder farmers to feel committed enough to implement climate change adaptation measures that are effective in mitigating or preventing climate change risk. The results of this study would have implications for policies to support maize smallholder farmers in their efforts to mitigate and resilient to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Firstly, the promotion of climate literacy must be sufficient to provide farmers with information on climate and forecasting. Secondly, to empower smallholder farmers with means and resources to prevent and reduce the effects of climate change. Lastly, enhancing the current environment for the agriculture sector will advance community inclusivity and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the oases of Morocco, climate trends show an increase in average temperatures of 2.2 °C and exacerbated precipitation by + 20% between 2020 and 2050 according to climate change scenarios. The consequences of these changes have a clear decrease in water availability and an increase in water needs. Therefore, analyzing water resource capacity and searching for adequate solutions to water scarcity in oases are essential for developing drylands. In this study, we assess the possible effects of climate change on water scarcity and the oasis ecosystem and its components. The calculated water stress index (WSI) remains very low due to a decrease in the resource impacted by the combined increase in precipitation and temperature. The obtained results indicate that for scenario 1 the WSI varies from 904 to 699 m3/inhab/year in 2030 and for scenario 2 the WSI varies between 583 in 2030 and 451 m3/inhab/year in 2050. The water availability indicator takes a value in scenario 1 of 75% for Zagora and 50% for Ouarzazate at the horizons 2030 and 2050, then increase in scenario 2 to 89% for Zagora and 78% for Ouarzazate at the horizons2030 and 2050. These results were used to develop the adaptation process, which aims to identify needs, activities, and projects in the short, medium, and long term at the horizons 2030 and 2050. In addition, it could shed light on sustainable development in this region. In addition, this study could be a reference for researchers and a decision–support document for decision-makers to place economic development within an environmental management framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A broad consensus has been reached on the need to adapt the management of our forests to the context of the rapidly changing climate, which resulted in the development of numerous models capable of simulating the impact of the climate change on the forest. The primary goal of this specific endeavor is to propose a novel framework of comparative analysis which could lead to the unique and universal description and mapping of these models. This framework is based on the reduction of the model output to the relatively simplistic information about the presence of the tree species suitable for the forest management i.e.,—a binary classifier, making it comparable with the largely available tree presence observations. The framework we propose comes along with a new score, based on the joint use of the Principal Component Analysis and the Co-inertia Analysis, which evaluates the model vis-á-vis the corresponding observations with the focus on its phase space dynamics, i.e., its dependence on external environmental variables, rather than its spatial precision. The pertinence of the proposed multi-scale approach, suitable for the multi-scale analysis, is demonstrated by conjointly using prototype binary classifiers, designed for this purpose, and two different examples of binary classifiers used in the forest management—climate-dependent tree species distribution models. This work has the ambition to serve as the basis for a potential combination of different models at different spatial scales in order to improve the decision-making process in the forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis with the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events and heat waves are considered and differ across groups. Rain events affect the lower income classes more, while heat waves are the bigger burden for higher income classes. Overall, the strength of perceived impacts is larger for lower income classes, directly threatening their daily incomes. Urban managers have no immediate feedback on their livelihood, but often refer to health issues. The strongest effect on ameliorating burdens is investments in schemes to ease traffic, e.g., by improving the sewage and drainage infrastructure paired with other supply side measures to enable transport of goods for lower income classes during rain. During heat events, improving the water supply situation would reduce burden for all, while constant electricity supply is an effective means in reducing burden for the higher income classes in particular. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the water supply and sewage infrastructure would be the most suitable first step to initiate a well-planned adaptation strategy for all social groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]