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The Paris Agreement created an institutionalized role for non-state actors through voluntary cooperation. Many international NGOs (INGOs) are particularly active in these "Paris partnerships," often working with multinational corporations to reduce emissions and promote decarbonization. Though there is ample work on both the effectiveness of the Paris partnerships and on the role of INGOs in the global climate regime, much of this work focuses "outward" – on how INGOs contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation, or influence norms, discourse and policy. Yet, there is considerably less work that focuses "inward" – examining who INGOs work with in order to achieve their policy goals. This paper provides a descriptive analysis of key INGOs in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, as a first step in a larger research agenda to understand the incentives and opportunities that drive INGO behavior. Specifically, it uses network analysis to identify the "climate establishment" – which I define as the insider INGOs working within the multilateral process and with large corporations to influence rulemaking, soft law and firm behavior. Measures of network centrality demonstrate that two INGOs – WWF and the World Resources Institute – are by far, the most authoritative members of the climate establishment. They participate in the largest number of partnerships, and have "important" friends, as measured by eigenvector centrality. The data also indicate that the climate establishment sees carbon pricing as a key strategy, and it often cooperates with banks that are large funders of fossil fuel projects. The descriptive analysis of the climate establishment and its partners raises important questions for future research about why INGOs choose to partner with F100 companies, and how such cooperation might influence INGO behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this policy paper is to characterize the current situation of Tunisian municipalities in matters of climate change policies and actions and to understand the barriers and best practices. By surveying municipalities in Tunisia, we were able to provide an overview of the Tunisian municipalities in matters of climate change actions and strategies, as well as finding the main barriers and best practices. First, we found that most Tunisian municipalities are facing different effects of climate change. Second, the majority of municipalities do not have a strategy for mitigation and adaptation of climate change at the local level. Third, the main barrier that municipalities face in investing in climate change actions is the lack of financial resources and funding. Four, we have identified some of the best climate change mitigation and adaptation practices of surveyed cities, which should be taken into consideration and implemented also by the other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, we find ourselves in a paradigm in which we believe that accepting climate change data will lead to a kind of automatic action toward the preservation of our environment. I have argued elsewhere (Fried 2020) that this lack of civic action on climate data is significant when placed in the historical, military context of the technologies that collect this data––Earth remote sensing technologies. However, I have not yet discussed the phenomenological or moral implications of this context, which are deeply interconnected. In this paper, I assert that Earth remote sensing technologies can, if we are not careful, lead us to a kind of environmental deskilling. This assertion comes in four parts. First, the military context of Earth remote sensing technologies––which collect important data on climate change––acts as a kind of stability, as defined by Don Ihde and others. Second, I invoke Sir Patrick Heelan to argue that the theoretical underpinnings of Earth systems science do not translate from military to environmental praxes as we imagine they do. Third, Hannah Arendt makes the case that a state's trust in simplifying narratives like that of climate data, meant to create "islands" of certainty in an uncertain world, can be self-defeating. That is to say, they can silence public action. I extend these arguments through Vallor's analysis of moral deskilling, in which she points out that an overemphasis on autonomous data collection––and trust in a kind of automated decision-making on that data––can deskill us from important questions relevant to our collective flourishing. In all of these examples, the lines between environmental and military research are blurry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major cause of soil degradation (contamination, erosion, compaction) is closely linked to agriculture, i.e., unsustainable agriculture practices, which are reflected in the depletion of the soil organic carbon pool, loss in soil biodiversity, and reduction of C sink capacity in soils. Therefore, the agricultural practice of applying carbon-rich materials into the soil is an attractive solution for climate change mitigation and soil ecosystem sustainability. The paper aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the addition of organic-mineral mixtures to the mineral salts (NPK), including the exogenous organic matter (lignite) mixed with zeolite-carbon (NaX-C) or zeolite-vermiculite (NaX-Ver) composites in the restoration of soils contaminated with PAHs. The addition of zeolite composites to fertilizer resulted in a significant reduction in soil PAH levels and a corresponding reduction in plant tissue content, without compromising yields, compared to the control and separate application of NPK. A Significant correlation between PAHs and pHH2O, pHKCl, EC and dehydrogenase activity (DhA) was found in soils. The addition of zeolite composites with lignite significantly reduced the content of PAHs in straws, especially following the application of NaX-C. However, in the case of grains, the highest percentage reduction in comparison to NPK was observed for the highest dose of NaX-Ver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the severe effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, urgent action is required on the part of farmers and is, indeed, critical to reducing climate change impacts. However, reports globally revealed farmers' engagement in climate change adaptation is still insufficient, ambivalent, and inconsistent and farmers do not consider adaptation to be urgent. Researchers have argued that this issue is rooted in psychological biases beside other factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate how psychological distance determines climate change beliefs, risk perception and adaptation strategies among Iranian farmers. A cross-sectional paper-based survey was conducted in the Dasht-e Azadegan county of Khuzestan province in southwest Iran. The study sample consisted of 250 farmers selected through a multi-stage random sampling process. An expert panel review and a pilot study were conducted to confirm convergent validity and reliability of the scales. The results confirm that all four dimensions of psychological distance influence water management adaptation strategies and non-farm activities. Moreover, all psychological dimensions, except the temporal dimension, affect adaptation in farming management. Thus, making climate change more proximal to decision makers could be a strategic way of encouraging individuals to take adaptive actions. This study emphasizes that concepts of psychological distance can be applied to help organizations (e.g., agriculture extension services) to understand farmers' risk perceptions and responses to climate change impacts and improve risk communication to better engage farmers in climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty sources in climate change impact studies can be addressed in two distinct phases, climate modelling and impact assessment. Generally, uncertainty from the climate modelling phase is the larger contributor and the impact phase uncertainty is sometimes marginalized. This paper aims to develop integrated uncertainty analysis approaches that deal with uncertainties at the impact level with all sources included. The existing uncertainty analysis method of Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) is modified for impact studies by bracketing the hydrological model parameter uncertainty. A novel probabilistic approach referred to as Bootstrapped Ensemble Uncertainty Modelling (BEUM) is also proposed for uncertainty analysis at the impact phase. Modified REA and BEUM are applied to streamflow projections of the Hulu Langat basin with uncertainties stemming from emission scenarios, general circulation models (GCM), downscaling method, and a hydrological model parametrization for a comprehensive integrated uncertainty assessment. The modified REA increased the reliability measure of each streamflow scenario and improved the uncertainty coverage percentage when compared with the original REA. The REA eliminated the projections of the less reliable GCMs, and therefore reduced uncertainty bands compared to the BEUM. The BEUM can create a large ensemble of streamflow projections through nonparametric bootstrapping of the limited impact scenarios and define the streamflow distribution for every quantile. Therefore, BEUM is able to encompass larger uncertainty intervals and explain the behavior of ensemble members through probabilistic distributions that can assist in decision making for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, which threatens food security, ecosystem protection and restoration initiatives, and fresh water resources availability and quality. Groundwater largely contributes to the mitigation of climate change effects by offering short- to long-term transient water storage. However, groundwater storage remains extremely difficult to monitor. In this paper, we review the strengths and weaknesses of satellite remote sensing techniques for addressing groundwater quantity issues with a focus on GRACE space gravimetry, as well as concepts to combine satellite observations with numerical models and ground observations. One particular focus is the quantification of changes in groundwater resources in the different climatic regions of Africa and the discussion of possible climatic and anthropogenic drivers. We include a thorough literature review on studies that use satellite observations for groundwater research in Africa. Finally, we identify gaps in research and possible future directions for employing satellite remote sensing to groundwater monitoring and management on the African continent. Article Highlights: Overview on the distribution and characteristics of African groundwater resources including future projections Combination of satellite and in situ observations with numerical models allows us to obtain a synoptic view of groundwater-related processes Summary of current concepts and achievements of satellite remote sensing-based groundwater monitoring and decision making over Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change is among the most renowned concerns of the current century, endangering the lives of millions of people worldwide. To comply with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), hospitals should be on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although hospitals contribute to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases, they are also affected by the health consequences of climate change. Despite all the guidance provided, hospitals need more radical measures to confront climate change. The current study was carried out to examine the components of hospitals' adaptation to climate change and to review measures to confront climate change in hospitals. Method: This systematic review was designed and carried out in 2020. The required information was collected from international electronic databases including Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Google Scholar. Moreover, Iranian datasets such as Scientific Database (SID), Irandoc, Magiran, and IranMedex were reviewed. No restriction was considered in the methodology of the study. For the relevant thesis, the ProQuest database was also explored. The related sources were examined and the Snowball method was applied to find additional related studies. The research team also reviewed other accessible electronic resources, such as international guidelines and academic websites. The checklist of the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI, 2017) was employed in order to evaluate the quality of the included papers. The studies published until June1, 2020, were included in the study. Results: Of 11,680 published documents in the initial search, the full-texts of 140 were read after evaluating the titles and abstracts, of which 114 were excluded due to lack of sufficient information related to countermeasures in hospitals. Finally, the full-texts of 26 studies were reviewed to extract the required components. Two strategies were found, including climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation, with 13 components including water, wastewater, energy, waste, green buildings, food, transportation, green purchasing policy, medicines, chemicals and toxins, technology, sustainable care models, and leadership in hospitals were identified as affecting these measures and strategies. Conclusion: Considering the significance of climate change and strategies to confront it as one of the current challenges and priorities in the world, it is necessary to develop a framework and model to reduce the effects of climate change and adapt to climate changes in hospitals and other health centers. The identification and classification of the measures and components, influencing hospital adaptability and solutions for reducing the climate change impacts could be the first stage in developing this strategy. This is because it is impossible to create this framework without identifying these factors and their mutual impacts at the first. In the present study, through a systematic review using a comprehensive approach, the related components were explored and divided into two categories, including measures to reduce the effects and measures to adapt to climate change. The results of this study can be useful in developing a comprehensive action model to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt hospitals to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil and other Earth scientists who conduct research on C management found themselves, in the past decade within a swirl of efforts concerning climate mitigation, economic and business investments in carbon markets, and political aspirations. All these external pressures are issues with which soil science is largely unfamiliar. As a result, science has responded without deeply considering the landscape in which it finds itself, and some of the unanticipated challenges these issues present. Here, we suggest soil C scientists now consider and respond to these issues. The first order challenge is to transition from the concept of technical carbon sequestration potentials, made in the absence of social and policy contexts, to societally achievable sequestration estimates based on highly transdisciplinary teams of natural and social sciences and scientists. To achieve this will requires re-thinking national science funding programs, in which climate-relevant social science is under-funded. In addition, the science of soil C itself is in need of a priority shift. Presently, publications in soil C sequestration out-strip papers on soil feedbacks to climate change, and on how to adapt soil to climate change: two areas of research which may well be more societal important in the next few decades than sequestering C. Most seriously, given the urgent nature of our collective societal climate problem, our profession must not find itself a decade from now continuing the now 20-year-old narrative that soil C can potentially mitigate climate change and compensate for greenhouse gas emissions. We must consider the possibility that other options and expenditures of resources are more viable, and we must reframe our science's objectives to expand into the many other urgent needs that confront humanity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in energy demand and consumption is one of the significant challenges of the world community. Global climate change and temperature rise can significantly affect energy demand, especially in the building sector. Green passive design strategies (GPDS) such as green roof and green wall are considered a passive energy-saving technology which can deal with further climate change in near future. This paper compares the energy demand and CO2 emissions of a building with different structural scenarios during the current (2000–2019) and future climatic conditions (the 2050s) in two hot-dry (Kerman) and hot-humid (BandarAbbas) climate samples in Iran. The base case, green roof, and green wall modeling of the selected building have been developed by DesignBuilder software. Results revealed that 61% of the annual energy consumption of Kerman is related to the heating sector, while it will be changed to 47% under the effect of climate change and based on RCP2.6. However, 99% of the annual energy consumption of BandarAbbas belongs to cooling demand and it will not change by 2050s. Also, the maximum heating and cooling energy demand were calculated for the base building. Based on the results, green wall has more efficiency in optimizing total energy consumption compared to green roof in both climate types. On the other hand, GPDS are more efficient to optimize heating energy demand in comparison with cooling energy demand. Furthermore, the green wall strategy has better performance in reducing CO2 emissions as well. Accordingly, CO2 emissions reduce in Kerman by 2.73% and 2.93% by the implementation of the green wall during the observation period and 2050s, respectively. Meanwhile, this strategy can reduce CO2 emissions by only 1% per year in BandarAbbas during all studied periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Glasgow a year later than scheduled, with expected outcomes achieved under a post-pandemic background. Based on the Issue-Actor-Mechanism Framework, this paper systematically evaluates the outcomes achieved at COP26 and analyzes the tendency of post-COP26 climate negotiations. Overall, with the concerted efforts of all parties, COP26 has achieved a balanced and inclusive package of outcomes and concluded six years of negotiations on the Paris Rulebook. It is fair to say that COP26 is another milestone in climate governance following the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the Glasgow Climate Pact has cemented the consensus on a global commitment to accelerating climate action over the next decade and reached a breakthrough consensus on reducing coal, controlling methane, and halting deforestation. In the post-COP26 era, we still need to take concrete actions to implement the outcomes of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, innovate ways to speed up CO2 emissions reduction, and continue to strive for breakthroughs in important issues such as finance, technology, adaptation, and collaboration. In addition to avoiding the escalation of international conflicts, we need to collectively and properly handle the relationship between energy security, carbon reduction, and development and facilitate the efforts of countries to achieve their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including climate-related goals. China will continue to maintain the existing multilateral mechanisms and processes for climate governance, unremittingly take concrete actions to address climate change, promote a domestic comprehensive green transition and global cooperation on carbon neutrality, and contribute constructively to global climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on climate change mitigation and adaptation is pressing in order to understand its implications and risks in different urban areas. It is especially critical for those who face high degrees of urban inequality in the context of an uneven state presence. This paper is an explorative and investigative study which uses Cairo as a case. The focus of the study is on mapping state and private sector efforts in mitigating climate change issues, specifically for vulnerable groups who have limited access to public services. The study adopted an investigative approach where a literature search and bibliometric mapping were used to identify the gap in knowledge in the field of architecture and urban climate change mitigation and adaptation, followed by a field survey which included conducting interviews and questionnaires with different stakeholders from the public and private sector to investigate the link between the efforts for climate change mitigation. The explorative part of the study concluded that there is a huge knowledge gap in the Middle East and in Egypt when it comes to research efforts related to climate change with a focus on the built environment. The results of the investigative part of this study revealed that—apart from already limited efforts on ground—there is no synchronization in efforts between the public and private sector. Climate change issues are still not a priority when poverty, economy, and health are still a prime concern and take precedence over climate change. There is uneven presence of public efforts for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The efforts that do exist in the public sphere are self-help unorganized work (efforts) conducted by the civil society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today's 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a "no-regret option" in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands are significant components of the coastal landscape with important roles in ecosystem service provision and mitigation of climate change. They are also likely to be the system most impacted by climate change, feeling the effects of sea levels rise, temperature increases and rainfall regime changes. Climate change impacts on estuarine coastal wetlands (mangroves, saltmarsh) have been thoroughly investigated; however, the impacts on coastal freshwater wetlands (CFWs) are relatively unknown. To explore the current knowledge of the impacts of climate change on CFWs globally, we undertook a systematic quantitative literature review of peer-reviewed published literature. We found surprisingly little research (110 papers of an initial 678), the majority of which was conducted in the USA, focusing on the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on CFW vegetation or sediment accretion processes. From this research, we know that SLR will lead to reduced productivity, reduced regeneration, and increased mortality in CFW vegetation but little is known regarding the effects of other climate change drivers. Sediment accretion is also not sufficient to keep pace with SLR in many CFWs and again the effects of other climate drivers have not been investigated. The combination of unhealthy vegetation communities and minimal gain in vertical elevation can result in a transition towards a vegetation community of salt-tolerant species but more research is required to understand this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts from climate change will significantly affect local governance, and efforts to develop adaptation and mitigation policies will require widespread public support. However, public engagement, and discussions of climate change, remains limited. A new approach to public engagement titled, deliberative framing, can help bridge political divides and provide opportunities to discover innovative policy options. This paper reviews deliberative democracy and framing where they have been applied to examine public engagement on climate change. Integrating insights from these fields can help develop a practice of deliberative framing for managing climate change mitigation and adaptation actions at local scales, to complement national and international efforts. This could assist with community-based agenda setting toward greater justice and the public good. Challenges include building capacity for reflexivity, communication, and public engagement among government actors, recognizing there are different ways to frame climate change and designing deliberative forums that are more inclusive of disparate groups and often underrepresented minorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plan quality has become an established framework for analyzing the contents of plans and assessing their strengths and deficiencies. The research presented in this paper contributes to academic scholarship on plan quality by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of climate change plans in 63 of the most populous communities across Canada. Plans were evaluated using a coding protocol consisting of 46 indicators based on eight plan quality characteristics: fact base, goals, policies, implementation, monitoring and evaluation, inter-organizational coordination, participation, and plan organization and presentation. The analysis revealed three key findings that are important for policy and practice. First, Canadian municipal climate change plans prioritize climate change mitigation over adaptation. Second, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation are relatively weak aspects of municipal climate change plans in Canada. Finally, despite the importance that scholars and practitioners ascribe to stakeholder engagement, Canadian municipalities appear to have given insufficient consideration to this element of the climate change plan-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to some scholars, while sets of greenhouse gases emissions generate harms deriving from climate change, which can be mitigated through collective actions, individual emissions and mitigation activities seem to be causally insufficient to cause harms. If so, single individuals are neither responsible for climate harms, nor they have mitigation duties. If this view were true, there would be collective responsibility for climate harms without individual responsibility and collective mitigation duties without individual duties: this is puzzling. This paper explores a way to solve this puzzle. First, it will be argued that individual emissions, though not proper and full-fledged causes, causally contribute to raise the probability of climate harms. As a consequence, individuals are in fact responsible for their expected contributions to climate harms - this is contributive responsibility for likely outcomes. Second, it will be argued that people have responsibility also for the possible impacts of their individual emissions on climate harms. People can plausibly be regarded as individually responsible for the possible outcomes of their actions in close possible alternative worlds - this is robust responsibility. Non-causal individual responsibility for climate harms is plausible, and the puzzle may be solved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing focus on the economics of adaptation as policy moves from theory to practice. However, the techniques commonly used in economic appraisal have limitations in coping with climate change uncertainty. While decision making under uncertainty has gained prominence, economic appraisal of adaptation still uses approaches such as deterministic cost-benefit analysis. Against this background, this paper provides a critical review and assessment of existing economic decision support tools (cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis) an uncertainty framework (iterative risk management) and alternative tools that more fully incorporate uncertainty (real options analysis, robust decision making and portfolio analysis). The paper summarises each method, provides examples, and assesses their strengths and weaknesses for adaptation. The tools are then compared to identify key differences, and to identify when these approaches might be appropriate for specific applications in adaptation decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to carbon dioxide, it is becoming increasingly clear that there are numerous other potent agents of anthropogenic forcing (e.g. methane, ozone, black carbon) at work in the climate system today. The typical ethical framing of climate change has not yet accommodated this complexity. In addition, geoengineering has often been presented as a Plan B that would simply counter unintentional (and positive) anthropogenic forcing with intentional (and negative) anthropogenic forcing. This paper attempts to better address the complexity by outlining an ethical framework for reducing all anthropogenic forcing, a position it labels the 'climate imperative.' The paper considers geoengineering alongside various other anthropogenic forcing activities and discusses what the climate imperative would say about each of them. On this analysis, GHG and black carbon reductions remain a priority. At the same time, the framing reveals a significant ethical difference between geoengineering through solar radiation management and through carbon dioxide removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a model for the distribution of the Global Carbon Budget between the countries of the world is presented. The model is based on the criteria of equity while also taking into account the different historical responsibilities. The Global Carbon Budget corresponds to the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere while maintaining the increase in the average earth surface temperature below 2 °C, and it is therefore compatible with the long-term objective defined in the Paris Agreement. The results of applying the model are shown both for the 15 emitters that currently top the ranking for world emissions as well as for the other countries, which are grouped together in three main groups: Other African, Other Latin American and Caribbean, and the Rest of the World. Mitigation curves compatible with the carbon budget allocated to the different countries are presented. When comparing each emitter’s historical emissions for the period 1971-2010 with the proposed distribution for the period 2011-2050 obtained using the model, it can be seen that developed countries must face the future with a greatly reduced carbon budget, whereas developing countries can make use of a carbon budget that is higher than their cumulative historical emissions. Finally, there is a discussion about how a model with these characteristics could be useful when implementing the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios exist so that decision makers and those who provide them with information can make statements about the future that claim less confidence than do predictions, projections, and forecasts. Despite their prevalence, fundamental questions remain about how scenarios should best be developed and used. This paper proposes a particular conceptualization of scenarios that aims to address many of the challenges faced when using scenarios to inform contentious policy debates. The concept envisions scenarios as illuminating the vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, as concise summaries of the future states of the world in which a proposed policy would fail to meet its goals. Such scenarios emerge from a decision support process that begins with a proposed policy, seeks to understand the conditions under which it would fail, and then uses this information to identify and evaluate potential alternative policies that are robust over a wide range of future conditions. Statistical cluster analyses applied to databases of simulation model results can help identify scenarios as part of this process. Drawing on themes from the decision support literature, this paper first reviews difficulties faced when using scenarios to inform climate-related decisions, describes the proposed approach to address these challenges, illustrates the approach with applications for three different types of users, and concludes with some thoughts on implications for the provision of climate information and for future scenario processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing impacts of climate change, many people in Bangladesh are being forced to move their homes and/or change their jobs. Unfortunately, little is known about how people jointly decide on their jobs and residential location changes in association with the influence of climate change disasters. The main purpose of this paper is to examine how residents in coastal and inland areas may change their jobs and/or residential location under different scenarios of potential impacts of floods and cyclones by comparing socioeconomic and experiential factors. A stated preference survey was conducted in 14 coastal and inland areas of Bangladesh. As a result, 788 respondents provided 3152 valid samples (1948 from coastal areas and 1204 from inland areas). Analysis results based on a cross-nested logit model indicate that flood has no obvious impact on choices of inland people, and flood and cyclone have limited effects on people's choices in coastal areas, except for cyclone intensity. Income is not significant in the decisions of the coastal people, but it does matter to the inland people. The inland people are more likely to depend on government help during disasters. However, the coastal people's decisions are driven by different factors in a complicated way. The inland people prefer changing their jobs to changing their residential locations, but the coastal people are slightly more aggressive in deciding to change their residential location in response to flood. Structural differences of choice behaviors under flood and cyclone are also revealed. Finally, policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries face substantial vulnerabilities to the current and projected health risks of climate change. The paper explores some key elements for health care system preparedness and adaptation planning for heatwaves, flooding and cyclones, illustrating the constraints faced in the Indian context, by analyzing data from a field study. The barriers are not insurmountable and many opportunities exist in building climate resilient infrastructure, improving intersectoral organization, resource planning, and framing health policies and programmes that mainstream climate risks. This is the first comprehensive attempt to collect and analyse data on morbidity, mortality, and extreme events, supported by intensive primary survey based data on the preparedness of the health care system to manage risks in India. Recognizing the importance of specific climatic events such as heatwaves, systematic documentation and assessment of risks with associated morbidity and mortality, and collaboration across relevant departments are instrumental in framing an appropriate adaptation plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical climatology is the use of documentary evidence for the reconstruction of past climate. This paper gives a brief personal view of the development of the discipline from early times to the present day. Although several papers have been published on the importance of carefully analysing and evaluating all historical sources before they are used in climate reconstructions, several of them in Climatic Change, the use of unreliable, unanalysed data still persists. This may lead to false impressions of the climate of the past. In these times, when climate data are being used for political, as well as purely scientific ends, the cause of accuracy, as championed by Climatic Change, will best be served by emphasising, yet again, the importance of using only reliable data. A number of examples are given which illustrate these points. These include discussions on wine growing in England in medieval times, the Norse settlement of Greenland, and comments on the climate history of the past thousand years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public fear over environmental and health impacts of CO storage, or over potential leakage of CO from geological reservoirs, is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale large enough so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO under the seabed moves this climate mitigation option away from inhabited areas and could thereby take away some of the opposition towards this technology. Given that in the event of CO leakage through the overburden in the case of sub-seabed CCS, the ocean could function as buffer for receiving this greenhouse gas, instead of it directly being emitted into the atmosphere, offshore CCS could also address concerns over the climatic impacts of CO seepage. We point out that recent geological studies provide evidence that to date CO has been safely stored under the seabed. Leakage for individual offshore CCS operations could thus be unlikely from a technical point of view, if storage sites are well chosen, well managed and well monitored. But we argue that on a global longterm scale, for an ensemble of thousands or millions of storage sites, leakage of CO could take place in certain cases and/or countries for e.g. economic, institutional, legal or safety-cultural reasons. In this paper we investigate what the impact could be in terms of temperature increase and ocean acidification if leakage occurs at a global level, and address the question what the relative roles could be of on- and offshore CCS if mankind desires to divert the damages resulting from climate change. For this purpose, we constructed a top-down energy-environment-economy model, with which we performed a probabilistic Monte-Carlo cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation with on- and offshore CCS as specific CO abatement options. One of our main conclusions is that, even under conditions with non-zero (permille/year) leakage for CCS activity globally, both onshore and offshore CCS should probably - on economic grounds at least - still account for anywhere between 20 % and 80 % of all future CO abatement efforts under a broad range of CCS cost assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing scientific and political interest in the links between urbanization and human vulnerability to climate change. However, our literature review shows that the existing scholarship has largely focused on exposure resulting from urbanization, while other dimensions of urban vulnerability such as sensitivity or capacity to cope and adapt have been insufficiently represented or understood. Furthermore, most attention has been given to the negative effects of urbanization, while opportunities for vulnerability reduction have been underemphasized. Therefore, this paper takes a broader perspective to explore key relationships between urbanization, economic development and socio-economic vulnerability on a global scale. Using data with national resolution, we applied a clustering approach to identify ten country groups sharing similar patterns of urbanization and national income. We then explored associations between these country groups and selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity drawing upon data from the World Risk Index. Our findings suggest that countries with rapid urbanization and economic transformation face significant challenges with respect to sensitivity and the lack of capacities. Additionally, these challenges tend to be greater the lower the income of the respective country. Yet, at the same time, urbanization can be a main driver for enhancing response capacity. The analysis suggests that urbanization can, hence, have nuanced effects on overall vulnerability. We argue that climate change science needs to be more balanced in terms of acknowledging and examining the different possible pathways of vulnerability effects related to urbanization. The country group analysis can provide a first entry point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a focus on the fat upper tail of the climate sensitivity probability distribution. However, while climate sensitivity is undoubtedly important, what ultimately matters is transient temperature change. A focus on transient temperature change stresses the interplay of climate sensitivity with other physical uncertainties, notably effective heat capacity. In this paper we present a conceptual analysis of the physical uncertainties in economic models of climate mitigation, leading to an empirical application of the DICE model, which investigates the interaction of uncertainty in climate sensitivity and the effective heat capacity. We expand on previous results exploring the sensitivity of economic evaluations to the tail of the climate sensitivity distribution alone, and demonstrate that uncertainty about the system's effective heat capacity also plays a very important role. We go on to discuss complementary avenues of economic and scientific research that may help provide a better combined understanding of the physical and economic processes associated with a rapidly warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerating the international use of climate mitigation technologies is key if efforts to curb climate change are to succeed, especially in developing countries, where weak domestic technological innovation systems constrain the uptake of climate change mitigation technologies. Several intergovernmental agencies have set up specific programmes to support the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies. Using a simplified technological innovation system-based framework, this paper aims to systematically review these programmes, with the dual aim of assessing their collective success in promoting technological innovation, and identifying opportunities for the newly formed UNFCCC Technology Mechanism. We conclude that, while all programmes reviewed have promoted technology transfer, they have given limited attention to innovation capabilities with users, government and universities. Functions that could be further developed include knowledge development, legitimation and market formation. These could be focal areas for the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism. We recommend that, in future programmes, part of the funding is dedicated to programmes doing research and development as well as capability development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong focus in climate negotiations on the transfer and diffusion of technologies as a means to mitigate and adapt to climate change has entailed various programs to promote the transfer and diffusion of climate technologies, including the Technology Needs Assessment project (TNA). Despite the technology focus in the project, practice shows that the questions of what a technology is and how the key concepts of technology transfer and diffusion should be understood and operationalized remain diffuse. This paper explores the reasons for this by analysing the experience of the TNA project in using a framework for categorizing technologies according to the types of markets and non-markets in which they are diffused. While the framework has contributed to a higher degree of 'market literacy' among national stakeholders, four challenges in categorizing technologies have been identified: i) technologies comprising varying degrees of software, orgware and hardware; ii) technologies appearing as whole systems of production; iii) technologies covering different application markets; and iv) technologies situated on a continuum between research, development and diffusion. These challenges are proxies for the challenges in formulating plans of actions for technologies. If, due to a lack of conceptual clarity, it is not clear to countries whether the diffusion of a specific technology should be implemented by a project or by means of an enabling framework, the measures proposed in the action plans may be misleading. We therefore call for an increased focus on clarifying the technology concept in the training for the next generation of TNAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although in recent years great emphasis has been placed on global agreements and national commitments on climate change, ultimately action on mitigation and adaptation must take place at the local level. Many local authorities have to face questions of whether they should develop policies on climate change, and if so, on what evidence should policies be designed and delivered. This paper describes how academic research on the economics of low carbon cities (the 'mini-Stern review') helped create such an evidence base for the Leeds City Region and its constituent local authorities. We describe how the response to the evidence and the pathways to impact were different in the individual local authorities and what this means for our understanding of evidence in local policy making. In terms of Weiss' (Social sciences and modern states: national experiences and theoretical crossroads. Advances in political science, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ) classification, the study was mainly useful as an argument and idea rather than being used instrumentally. We find that the policy and political context in each authority determines to a large extent whether such an academic study is useable as evidence. The contents and timing of the study need to align with existing policy and/or political agendas: is climate change on the agenda at all, with what priority and how is it framed. We find confirmation of a relationship between the policy problem type and the role of evidence as argument, idea or data. The mini-Stern study itself was just one contribution to wide-ranging processes of informing, convincing, pressurising, etc., not just within the different councils but also within the wider communities. Other contextual factors include composition, agenda and activities of local civil society and the local business community. Finally, it depends on the expertise of policy officers in the councils what use is made of evidence. Making policy takes (much) time, translation and negotiation across levels and sectors. Policy work describes how policy officers bring their diverse forms of knowledge to bear on policy questions; how this work is done is something that is learned from practice rather than from the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a 'backwards' approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios using statistical cluster-finding algorithms. This backwards approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs. In this illustrative analysis, we find that energy sobriety, equity and convergence prove most important towards explaining future difference in challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The results also demonstrate the difficulty in finding explanatory drivers for a middle scenario (SSP2). We argue that methodologies such as that used here are useful for broad questions such as the definition of SSPs, and could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers in the field of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combined influences of a change in climate patterns and the increased concentration of property and economic activity in hazard-prone areas has the potential of restricting the availability and affordability of insurance. This paper evaluates the premiums that private insurers are likely to charge and their ability to cover residential losses against hurricane risk in Florida as a function of (a) recent projections on future hurricane activity in 2020 and 2040; (b) insurance market conditions (i.e., soft or hard market); (c) the availability of reinsurance; and (d) the adoption of adaptation measures (i.e., implementation of physical risk reduction measures to reduce wind damage to the structure and buildings). We find that uncertainties in climate projections translate into a divergent picture for insurance in Florida. Under dynamic climate models, the total price of insurance for Florida (assuming constant exposure) could increase significantly by 2040, from $12.9 billion (in 1990) to $14.2 billion, under hard market conditions. Under lower bound projections, premiums could decline to $9.4 billion by 2040. Taking a broader range of climate change scenarios, including several statistical ones, prices could be between $4.7 and $32.1 billion by 2040. The upper end of this range suggests that insurance could be unaffordable for many people in Florida. The adoption of most recent building codes for all residences in the state could reduce by nearly half the expected price of insurance so that even under high climate change scenarios, insurance premiums would be lower than under the 1990 baseline climate scenario. Under a full adaptation scenario, if insurers can obtain reinsurance, they will be able to cover 100 % of the loss if they allocated 10 % of their surplus to cover a 100-year return hurricane, and 63 % and 55 % of losses from a 250-year hurricane in 2020 and 2040. Property-level adaptation and the maintenance of strong and competitive reinsurance markets will thus be essential to maintain the affordability and availability of insurance in the new era of catastrophe risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio ( φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6-as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4-can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider sensitivity scenarios reflecting increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm. The only adaptation considered is upgrading and maintaining dikes. Under the unmitigated scenario and without adaptation, the number of people flooded reaches 168 million per year in 2100. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.4, adaptation by factor 461 and both options together by factor 540. The global annual flood cost (including dike upgrade cost, maintenance cost and residual damage cost) reaches US$ 210 billion per year in 2100 under the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.3, adaptation by factor 5.2 and both options together by factor 7.8. When assuming adaptation, the global annual flood cost relative to GDP falls throughout the century from about 0.06 % to 0.01-0.03 % under all scenarios including the sensitivity ones. From this perspective, adaptation to coastal flood impacts is meaningful to be widely applied irrespective of the level of mitigation. From the perspective of a some less-wealthy and small island countries, however, annual flood cost can amount to several percent of national GDP and mitigation can lower these costs significantly. We conclude that adaptation and mitigation are complimentary policies in coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The small but stubbornly unyielding possibility of a very large long-term response of global temperature to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide can be termed the fat tail of high climate sensitivity. Recent economic analyses suggest that the fat tail should dominate a rational policy strategy if the damages associated with such high temperatures are large enough. The conclusions of such analyses, however, depend on how economic growth, temperature changes, and climate damages unfold and interact over time. In this paper we focus on the role of two robust physical properties of the climate system: the enormous thermal inertia of the ocean, and the long timescales associated with high climate sensitivity. Economic models that include a climate component, and particularly those that focus on the tails of the probability distributions, should properly represent the physics of this slow response to high climate sensitivity, including the correlated uncertainty between present forcing and climate sensitivity, and the global energetics of the present climate state. If climate sensitivity in fact proves to be high, these considerations prevent the high temperatures in the fat tail from being reached for many centuries. A failure to include these factors risks distorting the resulting economic analyses. For example, we conclude that fat-tail considerations will not strongly influence economic analyses when these analyses follow the common-albeit controversial-practices of assigning large damages only to outcomes with very high temperature changes and of assuming a significant baseline level of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing appropriate climate change adaptations to protect biodiversity requires taking into account the dynamics of agro-ecological and socio-economic change. A framework for approaching this problem was proposed, but not applied in detail, as part of a major biodiversity and climate change report prepared in Australia. This paper describes the first trial application of the method. It was applied across Vietnam as the Government is interested in identifying adaptation options and detailed data are readily available for its 65 provinces. The process involves identifying ecoregions and collating information for each region based on the current conditions and trends in biodiversity, population, income and agricultural production. Climate change scenarios are identified for each region, together with governance options. Educational needs and key adaptation actions are then identified for each region taking into account the agro-ecological and socio-economic input data. It is concluded that the framework could easily be applied in other countries and should assist the development of strategic adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key limitations of integrated assessment models (IAMs) are their highly stylized and aggregated representation of climate damages and associated economic responses, as well as the omission of specific investments related to climate change adaptation. This paper proposes a framework for modeling climate impacts and adaptation that clarifies the relevant research issues and provides a template for making improvements. We identify five desirable characteristics of an ideal integrated assessment modeling platform, which we elaborate into a conceptual model that distinguishes three different classes of adaptation-related activities. Based on these elements we specify an impacts- and adaptation-centric IAM, whose optimality conditions are used to highlight the types of functional relationships necessary for realistic representations of adaptation-related decisions, the specific mechanisms by which these responses can be incorporated into IAMs, and the ways in which the inclusion of adaptation is likely to affect the simulations' results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers some thoughts on the value added of new economic estimates of climate change damages. We begin with a warning to beware of analyses that are so narrow that they miss a good deal of the important economic ramifications of the full suite of manifestations of climate change. Our second set of comments focuses attention on one of the most visible products of integrated assessment modeling-estimates of the social cost of carbon which we take as one example of aggregate economic indicators that have been designed to summarize climate risk in policy deliberations. Our point is that these estimates are so sensitive to a wide range of parameters that improved understanding of economic damages across many (if not all) climate sensitive sectors may offer only limited value added. Having cast some doubt on the ability of improved estimates of economic damages to increase the value of economic damage estimates in integrated assessment modeling designed to inform climate policy deliberations, we offer an alternative approach-describing implicitly a research agenda that could (a) effectively inform mitigation decisions while, at the same time, (b) providing economic estimates for aggregate indicators like the social cost of carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social, economic, and environmental systems can be vulnerable to disruptions in water supplies that are likely to accompany future climate changes. Coupled with the challenges of tightening environmental regulations, population growth, economic development and fiscal constraints water supply systems are being pushed beyond the limits of their design and capacity for maintenance. In this paper we briefly review key economic concepts, various economic measures and metrics, and methods to estimate the economic effects on water resources from water supply changes that could accompany climate change. We survey some of the recent empirical literature that focuses on estimates developed for U.S. watersheds at both national and regional scales. Reported estimates of potential damage and loss associated with climate and water supply changes that we observe are significant, though often the metrics vary and make valid and consistent direct cross-comparisons difficult. Whether in terms of changes in GDP or in terms of estimated changes in economic welfare based on associated changes in economic costs and benefits, both national and regional estimates suggest that governments and organizations incorporate prudent steps to assess vulnerabilities to plausible future water supply and demand scenarios and develop responsive adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an empirical study of the relationship between residential energy demand and temperature. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage and special emphasis is given to the heterogeneous response of different regions and to the contrasting effects on energy demand for cooling and heating purposes. To account for this we distinguish between different regions, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature demand elasticities are estimated. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts as they provide an empirical basis for the study of the impact of climate change on energy demand. To illustrate the potential of the results as a basis for the study of climate change impacts, the estimates are used in a simple exercise that projects changes in energy demand due to temperatures increase in 2085. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) recently (re-)emerged in the literature as a key atmospheric mode in Northern Hemisphere climate variability, especially in the Pacific sector. Defined as a dipole of sea level pressure (SLP) between, roughly, Alaska and Hawaii, the NPO is connected with downstream weather conditions over North America, serves as the atmospheric forcing pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and is a potential mechanism linking extratropical atmospheric variability to El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. This paper explores further the forcing dynamics of the NPO and, in particular, that of its individual poles. Using observational data and experiments with a simple atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we illustrate that the southern pole of the NPO (i.e., the one near Hawaii) contains significant power at low frequencies (7-10 years), while the northern pole (i.e., the one near Alaska) has no dominant frequencies. When examining the low-frequency content of the NPO and its poles separately, we discover that low-frequency variations (periods >7 years) of the NPO (particularly its subtropical node) are intimately tied to variability in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Niño-Modoki/Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon. This result suggests that fluctuations in subtropical North Pacific SLP are important to monitor for Pacific low-frequency climate change. Using the simple AGCM, we also illustrate that variability in central tropical Pacific SSTs drives a significant fraction of variability of the southern node of the NPO. Taken together, the results highlight important links between secondary modes (i.e., CPW-NPO-NPGO) in Pacific decadal variability, akin to already established relationships between the primary modes of Pacific climate variability (i.e., canonical El Niño, the Aleutian Low, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequently heard call to harmonize adaptation and mitigation policies is well intended and many opportunities exist to realize co-benefits by designing and implementing both in mutually supportive ways. But critical tradeoffs (inadequate conditions, competition among means for implementation, and negative consequences of pursuing both simultaneously) also exist, along with policy disconnects that are shaped by history, sequencing, scale, contextual variables, and controversial climate discourses in the public. To ignore these issues can be expected to undermine a more comprehensive, better integrated climate risk management portfolio. The paper discusses various implications of these tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation for science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to pose considerable new challenges to California's electricity sector. This paper primarily focuses on the adaptation challenges of an important component of the energy arena: electricity demand in the residential and commercial sectors and electricity supply. The primary challenge to California's electricity sector will likely be the increase in demand for air conditioning as a result of rising temperatures. In addition, renewable energy sources, which are an increasing share of the electricity portfolio, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many of the key players have been actively considering the implications of climate change. Because electricity generation accounts for nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, this sector has been a target of the state's efforts to reduce emissions. Fortunately, many of the same tools can simultaneously improve the sector's resilience to a changing climate. Demand management strategies and supply diversification are both important strategies. Local governments can play a central role in encouraging the adoption of more energy efficient building codes and the use of more renewable sources, such as solar energy. The positive steps taken by many local governments are encouraging. Steps to increase public awareness are an important, often missing component, however. Increases in research, development, and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop new energy conservation tools are also needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008-2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2-0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Issues of social responsibility, ethics and interdependence, as well as the pragmatic imperative to better understand complexity, require that diverse viewpoints be invited and given credence by policy makers seeking imaginative 'solutions' to climate change. This paper explores the statutory introduction of biofuels into New Zealand by way of the discourses that preceded this decision. This inquiry used Critically Systemic Thinking and 'Mode 2' Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to engage with multiple stakeholders to the Biofuels policy to discover how the discourse was conducted. It concludes that the process of policymaking was framed in technical rationalist terms thereby favouring certain 'worldviews' over others. Accordingly, a model of 'ideal' discourse and decision making for governing the conduct of future public discourse is presented. This inquiry assists in re-establishing SSM as a rigorous and reflexive approach to analysing a complex issue and for enhancing collective learning into its content and process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]