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Bayesian methods have been proposed as a natural fit for pediatric extrapolation, as they allow the incorporation of relevant external data to reduce the required sample size and hence trial burden for the pediatric patient population. In this paper we will discuss our experience and perspectives with these methods in pediatric trials. We will present some of the background and thinking underlying pediatric extrapolation and discuss the use of Bayesian methods within this context. We will present two recent case examples illustrating the value of a Bayesian approach in this setting and present perspectives on some of the issues that we have encountered in these and other cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ERCP is essential in managing pancreaticobiliary disease, with well-documented complications. Rates of clinically significant complications are about 10%, approximately half of which is related to post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). We aimed to quantify the effect of previous sphincterotomy on post-endoiscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP). Data were collated from a contemporaneously collected database of 2876 consecutive ERCP procedures of a single operator in a tertiary referral centre. Analysis was conducted using R software, and logistic regression models. Of 2876 procedures (mean age 63 years, 56% female), 120 (4.2%) developed PEP and 268 (9.3%) had prolonged/unplanned hospital admission. Univariate analysis showed patients with previous sphincterotomy 28/1054 (2.7%) had decreased risk of PEP compared with those without sphincterotomy 92/1822 (5.0%) (OR 0.52, p =.0021). This difference was not evident when multivariate analysis for age, sex and indication was undertaken due to a particularly low risk of PEP in stent change patients (1.4%), which were disproportionately represented in the previous sphincterotomy group. The rate of prolonged/unplanned hospital admission was recorded for a total of 2876 patients, occurring in 184/1802 (10.1%) in the native ampulla group, versus 84/1045 (8.0%) in the previous sphincterotomy group. The risk of PEP is halved by prior sphincterotomy. The presence of a biliary stent conferred an even lower risk of PEP (1.4%), but those without an in situ stent at the time of ERCP had a similar risk of PEP (4.6%) of prolonged/unplanned hospitalisation to those with a native ampulla. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract How can we describe and categorize government relationships with pro-government militias (PGMs)? Most research tends to focus on government sponsorship of PGMs. This entails a cooperative relationship and government delegation to PGMs. Yet most government-PGM relations are nuanced, complex, and are often fraught with uncertainty and even conflict and hostility. In this article we discuss the conceptualization of PGMs vis-à-vis a government or state, we then discuss the complexities of government-PGM relations, and then develop a spectrum framework to categorize these relationships. We classify government-PGM relations based on their alignment of interests/objectives, the degree to which a government has control over a PGM and their balance of power, and the extent to which a government provides material support to a PGM. We introduce five categories – government control, delegation, cooperation, acquiescence, and conflict. This spectrum framework aids in a better understanding of the nuances in government-PGM relationships, includes under-explored aspects of their possible relations, such as competition/conflict, and how these relations change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Church was a powerful institution in early modern times with courts to enforce its laws on the people at large. Most historians, however, consider its disciplinary machinery to be in decline by the 1690s, while Evan Davies claims there was a new vitality in the enforcement of religious conformity in the Diocese of Worcester after the Restoration. What were the nature and extent of the Church's controls over society? Charge sheets in surviving consistory court books show the nature of church concerns and how these changed over time, while analyses of numbers summoned, their attendance at court and completion of business reveal the extent of its controls over society. The article traces trajectories over the seventeenth century to bring a broader perspective than Evan Davies to these questions. It sets Worcester within trends in other dioceses to confirm that the Church was a diminishing force in society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insecurities associated with the credible commitment problem during disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) processes are usually examined within a dyadic relationship between the government and a rebel group, ignoring how these insecurities play themselves out in the context of multiple warring parties. In addition, most studies on these dynamics take an overview macro-perspective, leaving out micro-dynamics such as how insecurity is experienced by those undertaking the disarmament process. This paper examines FARC members' perception of insecurity and threat during the disarmament process in Colombia in the context of multiple armed groups. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with FARC combatants in three different demobilisation camps during the process of disarmament, this paper sheds light on how credible commitment problems between the FARC and the Colombian government were influenced by the presence of additional armed actors and how associated insecurities are perceived by combatants who are disarming vis-à-vis various armed actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

George Morley was Bishop of Worcester for only eighteen months but at a critical juncture: the Restoration of the Church and the Monarchy. The purpose of this article is to describe and assess his achievement. The episcopal apparatus had to be revived after fourteen years of abolition. In addition to routine activities, such as institutions of clergy, diocesan visitations, confirmations and the church court, the treatment of intruder clergy and a backlog of building repairs made his agenda particularly challenging. Worcester was an important diocese and was probably seen as a training ground for a top post in the Church. This article surveys Morley's record as far as surviving documents allow and attempts to place it in context. Despite shortcomings, Morley more than fulfilled his promise which no doubt led to his swift translation to Winchester. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responding to burgeoning scholarship examining discrete positive emotions, the overarching goals of the current review are to provide a summary of 28 enjoyable emotions and to offer an initial classification of these emotions into families. The families of discrete enjoyable emotions, many proposed for the first time, are as follows: (1) Self-praising emotions (authentic pride, fiero, naches, feeling respected), (2) other-praising emotions (admiration, elevation, gratitude, inspiration), (3) past-oriented emotions (forgiveness, nostalgia, relief), (4) future-oriented emotions (anticipatory enthusiasm, courage, determination, hope), (5) hazardous emotions (lust, schadenfreude, hubristic pride), (6) affectionate emotions (love, attachment love, tenderness, positive empathy), (7) arousal-defined emotions (euphoria, serenity), (8) violation-elicited emotions (amusement, awe, curiosity, positive surprise).This review describes how the 28 enjoyable emotions were selected, outlines the classification process generating the families of enjoyable emotions, provides a brief summary of current scholarship on each emotion, and concludes with a discussion of fertile future directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an investigation into claims that paramilitary violence in Colombia can pose a threat to the peace agreement signed in 2016 between the Colombian government and the FARC rebels. These claims highlight the capacity for paramilitary groups to 'spoil' the peace deal. Hitherto, however, there is a lack of scholarly research to investigate the potential of paramilitary spoiling. Firstly, this article highlights the flaws in the government's perspective that paramilitarism no longer exists in Colombia. Instead, the government argues that Colombia is plagued by criminal bands (known as BACRIMs). Secondly, through fieldwork interviews and questionnaires conducted in FARC demobilisation camps, together with descriptive data analysed through a uniquely coded dataset on violence in western Colombia, this article supports claims that successor paramilitary groups represent a key spoiler threat to the current government-FARC peace process. On the one hand, the paramilitaries can represent a direct spoiler threat by, for instance, violently targeting demobilising FARC guerrillas. On the other hand, successor paramilitary groups represent a key indirect spoiler threat, as paramilitary violence is exacerbating the root causes of the conflict that the peace deal seeks to address, with negative implications for the prospects for peace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:Indications for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) have received little attention, especially in scientific or objective terms. Aim:To review the prevailing ERCP indications in the literature, and to propose and evaluate a new ERCP indication system, which relies on more objective pre-procedure parameters. Methods:An analysis was conducted on 1758 consecutive ERCP procedures, in which contemporaneous use was made of an a-priori indication system. Indications were based on the objective pre-procedure parameters and divided into primary [cholangitis, clinical evidence of biliary leak, acute (biliary) pancreatitis, abnormal intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC), or change/removal of stent for benign/malignant disease] and secondary [combination of two or three of: pain attributable to biliary disease (‘P’), imaging evidence of biliary disease (‘I’), and abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) (‘L’)]. A secondary indication was only used if a primary indication was not present. The relationship between this newly developed classification system and ERCP findings and adverse events was examined. Results:The indications of cholangitis and positive IOC were predictive of choledocholithiasis at ERCP (101/154 and 74/141 procedures, respectively). With respect to secondary indications, only if all three of ‘P’, ‘I’, and ‘L’ were present there was a statistically significant association with choledocholithiasis (χ2(1) = 35.3,p < .001). Adverse events were associated with an unusual indication leading to greater risk of unplanned hospitalization (χ2(1) = 17.0,p < .001). Conclusions:An a-priori-based indication system for ERCP, which relies on pre-ERCP objective parameters, provides a more useful and scientific classification system than is available currently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three online studies assessed a new approach for increasing help seeking among people with depressive symptomatology (i.e. a positive emotion infusion, PEI). A PEI refers to the induction of positive emotion such that people’s mindsets – including perceptions of help-seeking – are temporarily altered. Study 1 (n = 382) indicated that help-seeking intentions are negatively correlated with depressive symptomatology and positively correlated with elevation and gratitude. Studies 2 and 3 implemented fully randomized experimental designs. In Study 2, two elevation-based (Study 2a, n = 285) and two gratitude-based (Study 2b, n = 338) emotion inductions increased levels of elevation and gratitude, respectively. Results of Study 3a (n = 390) indicate a causal relationship between experiencing the story-based elevation induction and increased help-seeking intentions. The two gratitude-based PEIs (Study 3b, n = 466) were unsuccessful at influencing help-seeking; auxiliary analyses indicate the possibility of iatrogenic effects. Overall, the potential of PEIs was indicated, as was need for caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term elevation (also referred to as moral elevation), described by Thomas Jefferson and later coined by Jonathan Haidt, refers to the suite of feelings people may experience when witnessing an instance of moral beauty. The construct of elevation signifies the emotion felt when a person is a witness to, but not a recipient of, the moral behavior of others. Scholarship examining elevation has burgeoned since Haidt first introduced the construct. Researchers have explored the antecedents of, and outcomes associated with, witnessing instances of moral beauty. The current review will outline the existing scholarship on elevation, highlight conflicting findings, point out critical gaps in the current state of elevation research, and delineate fertile future directions for basic and applied research. Continued investigation of the affective, motivational, and behavioral responses associated with witnessing virtuous actions of others is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Women in Scotland who request an abortion (for non-medical reasons) within the legal gestational limit (up to 24 weeks) but beyond the gestational limit of all abortion facilities in Scotland (only up to 20 weeks) must travel to England if they wish to terminate the pregnancy. We wished to determine the number and characteristics of women presenting at ≥16 weeks’ gestation for abortion, and compare the characteristics of those proceeding to abortion with those continuing the pregnancy. Methods: Over a period of 12 months we conducted a prospective audit of women presenting at ≥16 weeks’ gestation to abortion services throughout Scotland. The characteristics of women proceeding to abortion and those continuing the pregnancy were compared. Results: A total of 267 women presented for abortion at ≥16 weeks’ gestation. Their median age was 22 years (range 14 to 47 years); 231 were from deprived areas (86.5%), 128 (47.9%) already had a child and 73 (27.3%) had previously undergone abortion. A total of 175 women (65.5%) proceeded to abortion, locally (n = 125; 46.8%) or in England (50; 18.7%). Those at ≥20 weeks’ gestation were statistically more likely to continue the pregnancy than those at earlier gestations (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Relatively few women present for abortion in Scotland at ≥16 weeks’ gestation. Those who are over 20 weeks’ gestation and would need to travel to England for abortion are more likely to continue the pregnancy, suggesting that travel is a barrier to accessing legal abortion for this group of women. Provision of abortion services up to 24 weeks’ gestation should be considered within Scotland. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article assesses the effect that leveraging civilian defense force militias has on the dynamics of violence in civil war. We argue that the delegation of security and combat roles to local civilians shifts the primary targets of insurgent violence toward civilians, in an attempt to deter future defections, and re-establish control over the local population. This argument is assessed through an analysis of the Sunni Awakening and ancillary Sons of Iraq paramilitary program. The results suggest that at least in the Al-Anbar province of Iraq, the utilization of the civilian population in counterinsurgent roles had significant implications for the targets of insurgent violence. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Elevation has garnered empirical support as the emotional response to witnessing moral beauty. The current studies investigated elevation’s construct validity by experimentally testing whether feelings of elevation are distinct from gratitude, another moral and ‘other-praising’ emotion. Study 1 demonstrated that feelings of elevation are distinct from gratitude, serenity (i.e. a secondary comparison condition), and boredom (i.e. a control condition). Study 2 added a behavioral outcome measure in the form of monetary donations to a moral charity. The third study expanded on Study 2 by randomly assigning participants to an elevation or gratitude mood induction and then randomly assigning them to have the opportunity to donate to either a moral or an amoral charity. Together, these studies support Haidt’s conceptualization of elevation, clarify Algoe and Haidt’s qualitative assessment of the emotional differences between elevation and gratitude, and reveal that elevation results in different behavioral responses than gratitude. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Mentoring is a prosocial behavior in which an experienced person guides someone with less experience. Elevation refers to the responses elicited when a person witnesses others upholding the highest standards of moral virtue. Three experimental studies bring these two domains together. For all three studies, participants were randomly assigned to either read a story of someone exhibiting moral excellence or to a control condition. Participants in the elevation condition reported feeling more elevated, more positive attitudes toward mentoring, less negative attitudes toward mentoring, greater intentions to become a mentor (Study 1); an increased proclivity to gather information about becoming a mentor (Study 2a); and, an increased tendency to engage in mentoring directly via submitting advice to students (Study 2b). In their totality, the current studies link another prosocial outcome with elevation and demonstrate a condition under which individuals are more likely to be motivated to become a mentor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevation refers to the feeling experienced when a moral act is witnessed. The current study sought to illuminate elevation by examining conditions under which elevation is amplified. Study 1 demonstrated that the character of the recipient of the moral deed moderates the relationship between witnessing a moral deed and experiencing elevation. Study 2 replicated the first and included a behavioral outcome measure: donation behavior. Study 3 considered an additional factor: the immoral act. Finally, to ensure the character of the recipient is not the sole moderator, Study 4 experimentally tested a second moderating variable (i.e. the effort required for completing the moral act). As a whole, these four studies consistently support Haidt’s conceptualization of elevation, open the door for a new path of theoretical exploration, and introduce a new line of applied research seeking to maximize prosocial behavior by exposing people to acts of morality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Studies on terrorism have traditionally focused on non-state actors who direct violence against liberal states. These studies also tend to focus on political motivations and, therefore, have neglected the economic functions of terrorism. This article challenges the divorce of the political and economic spheres by highlighting how states can use terrorism to realise interconnected political and economic goals. To demonstrate this, we take the case of the paramilitary demobilisation process in Colombia and show how it relates to the US-Colombian free trade agreement. We argue that the demobilisation process fulfils a dual role. First, the process aims to improve the image of the Colombian government required to pass the controversial free trade agreement through US Congress to protect large amounts of US investment in the country. Second, the demobilisation process serves to mask clear continuities in paramilitary terror that serve mutually supportive political and economic functions for US investment in Colombia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on a survey designed to examine the factors that influence management development. The survey of management development used as the basis of this analysis was designed to build on the outcomes of three reports. Each of the reports found substantial weaknesses in Great Britain's system of management development, both in its own context and especially in comparison to their main competitors. The survey consisted of three separate subprojects--18 case studies; 501 telephone interviews of the person responsible for management development in organizations with more than 100 employees; and 389 postal questionnaires from small businesses. The questionnaire for the telephone interviews was derived in part from the one used for the employer survey for the 1987 Constable-McCormick report. Looking at the drivers of management development as perceived by the respondents to the questionnaire provides an alternative approach to causality. The article is only a first step toward the statistical analysis of the determinants of management development and further work is necessary before a robust model emerges.