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Ecological compensation is an innovative and effective tool to explore the coordinated development of socioeconomic prosperity and ecological protection, especially for a watershed crossing different regions. It converts the externalities of ecosystem services into practical financial incentives for local stakeholders. This empirical study applies a quantitative policy evaluation approach to evaluate the environmental and economic effects of an ecological compensation policy, using the paddy land–to–dry land (PLDL) program implemented in China's Miyun Reservoir watershed as an example. The study is based on responses to a 2017 questionnaire regarding agricultural production inputs and outputs administered to 269 households in Hebei Province, where the PLDL program has been operational for over 10 yr. The results show that the program has reduced nitrogen usage by 24% on average in 2017 and decreased the total nitrogen emission load by 16.98 tons for the entire case area, which accounts for approximately 18.6% of the total nitrogen load reduction of the Miyun Reservoir basin. However, the upstream households involved in this program have experienced agricultural income losses higher than that allowed for by the current compensation criterion. Therefore, this paper discusses the factors that should be considered in the process of determining ecological compensation criteria. In particular, the paper proposes a differential compensation scheme based on the environmental effect at the individual level to avoid a standard payment for all households irrespective of their different contributions. This differential compensation payment scheme facilitates the fair treatment of environmental contributors and maximizes environmental benefits through an equitable allocation of limited ecological compensation funds. This study serves as a theoretical and practical reference for further improvement of the current ecological compensation policy in China. The study also sheds light on practices for estimating ecological compensation criteria and formulating ecological compensation policies for other regions or countries in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural insurance is a significant driver of agricultural development worldwide. In this paper, a fixed‐effects panel approach and instrumental variable regressions are used to examine the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural output in China. The study is based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2004 to 2018. Findings indicate that agricultural insurance led to a significant increase in aggregate agricultural output across provinces. The results remain robust when potential endogeneity in insurance uptake is considered. In addition, mechanism tests were performed to identify the channels through which insurance influences productivity. These show that agricultural insurance contributes to increasing labor productivity and the area of cultivated land per capita and encourages specialized planting, all of which promote growth in agricultural production. Finally, agricultural insurance plays a more important role in Eastern China and nonmajor crop‐producing areas [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q18]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input‐output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional‐level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector‐level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary: Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences. Key Points: The economic cascading effect of climate change is approximately 18 times larger than its direct damageThe least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more economic impacts than the most developed regionThe decline in agricultural output also affects manufacturing and services through trade networks, especially in developed regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is accompanied by a large amount of water consumption, nonpoint source pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the comprehensive and quantitative analysis of associated impacts on regional water, the environment, and the economy caused by variations in agricultural distribution is insufficient. This paper evaluates the evolution of grain production distribution and its effects on water resources, the economy, and the environment in China by using virtual water theory. The results show that the grain production area located in northern China is characterized by scarce water resources and a less developed economy. Due to the imbalance between grain supply and demand, virtual water embedded in grain will transfer among regions. These flows have formed a pattern where virtual water transfers from the water‐scarce northern region to the water‐rich southern region, increasing from 72.99 Gm3 in 1997 to 124.64 Gm3 in 2014. Evolution of grain production distribution changes the spatial pattern of grain production and consumption, and it exacerbates water resource pressure, the gray water footprint, and greenhouse gas emissions in the area that exports grain virtual water. The gray water footprint and carbon emissions in the grain export area increased by 10.66% and 31.06% during the study period, respectively. Meanwhile, the distribution of regional grain production influences the allocation of water resources in agriculture and other industries. Due to the difference between the economic benefits created by industry and agriculture, grain virtual water flow will have effects on the regional economic development. Key Points: Grain virtual water flow (VWF) dynamics along with the variations in the grain planting distribution from long time series are exploredThe associated impacts on regional water, the environment, and the economy caused by grain virtual water flow are evaluatedA framework to evaluate economic impact of VWF is established by scenario analysis regarding industrial structure and water reallocation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the relationship between crop yields and the environmental impacts of crop agriculture has been well‐documented, research on the relationship between farm size and the sustainability of cereal production is limited. Using survey data on 120 farms with both small‐ and large‐scale fields in Northeast China, this paper combines a life cycle assessment and the carbon‐based sustainability index (SI) algorithm to examine how maize productivity and agricultural inputs vary with farm size and to clarify how increasing farm size is correlated with energy use efficiency (EUE) and the SI. The results indicate that maize grain yield did not vary with farm size. Increasing farm size was shown to lead to reductions in the areal (per ha) rates of agro‐chemical inputs, energy depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions and increased in EUE and SI. Fertilizer‐ and fuel‐related agricultural inputs dominated the variations of EUE and SI. A scenario analysis indicates that, if farmers adopt a comprehensive management strategy (i.e., machines appropriate to farm size and recommended fertilizer application rates and crop management strategies), EUE and SI would increase by 68.5% (from 4.45 to 7.50) and 74.3% (from 10.1 to 17.6), respectively. Although increasing farm size could benefit maize sustainable production when matched with technical innovation and machinery coordination, supporting smallholder farmers to increase their resource use efficiency and sustainability is also key in China and other regions where smallholder farms comprise a large portion of the cropland area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China (NEC) is the most prominent grain‐producing region in China. However, it is currently facing significant impacts from climate change. Since the climate‐related impacts on crop yield in this region are a major concern for society in the future, quantifying climate change impacts on crop yields in NEC is essential to ensure future food security. This study aimed to quantify the effects of future climate change on crop yields in NEC and explore adaptation strategies using the Crop Growth Model (PCSE) driven by downscaled CMIP6 climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios during 2015–2100. Results showed that there could be average reductions in crop yields of 21.4% for maize and 4.2% for soybean by the year 2100 under SSP585 compared to the 2015 baseline. The increasing temperature was the dominant factor in reducing yields, although elevated CO2 and precipitation offered partial compensation. The optimized planting date brought noticeable benefits for rice and soybean but had limited effects on maize due to heat stress. Relocating rice expansion eastward and implementing earlier planting increased yields by up to 50% but adversely decreased soybean and maize due to competition. This study enriches our comprehension of climate change impacts on NEC agriculture, while also quantifying potential benefits and constraints of evaluated adaptations. The proposed adaptations may help mitigate projected yield declines in other key agricultural regions across the globe. Adjusting crop management practices to capitalize on changing climate factors shows promise as a strategy for sustaining production globally. Plain Language Summary: Northeast China (NEC) is essential for achieving food accessibility and food security in China, but its agricultural production is seriously threatened by climate change. This study investigated how climate change could impact maize, rice, and soybean crop yields in this region from 2015 to 2100, using the PCSE crop model and forcing from the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. Simulation results suggested rising temperatures would negatively affect crop yields, especially for maize. Increased carbon dioxide and rainfall partially offset these losses. By 2100, average declines were projected for maize (−21%) and soybeans (−4%), respectively. Altering planting dates to match crop needs was an effective adaptation to boost yields, with rice benefiting the most. Relocating rice production eastward and expanding its area substantially increased simulated rice yields (+62%) but decreased other crops due to competition (−32% maize, −28% soybeans). Even with adaptations, some areas still showed yield declines, indicating extra measures may be needed to maintain production. Overall, this study suggests significant risks to crop yields from climate change in Northeast China, with adaptations like optimized planting and strategic crop relocation able to mitigate some but not all of the projected impacts. Key Points: Rising temperatures negatively impacted simulated future crop yields, especially for maizeAdjusting planting dates boosted yields for rice and soybeans but had limited benefits for maizeRelocating and expanding the rice area increased yields substantially [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China's crop production growth rate has decreased. This has provoked questions on whether the grain yields have reached their potential. Taking the North China Plain (NCP) as the study area, this study first simulated the potential yield of an irrigated maize crop with the WOFOST model, using daily weather data for 1960–2017. The yield gap was quantified for 1998–2017, and finally, the total potential maize production was estimated. The results indicate that during 1960–2017, the average potential yield for the region varied annually from 9.5 to 13.5 t ha−1, showing an obvious downward trend at a rate of 37.6 kg ha−1 per year. The long‐term mean potential yield at all 327 counties ranged from 9.9 to 13.7 t ha−1, increasing from south to north. The annual maize yield gap was between an average of 2.7–6.0 t ha−1 (29.0%–51.3%) of the potential yield for the NCP during 1998–2017. At county‐level, the yield gap varied between 1.9 and 7.8 t ha−1 and exceeded 5.0 t ha−1 for 99 counties (30.3% of all counties). Attainable yields can be increased by 0.1–5.2 t ha−1 at county‐level, and by 2.2 t ha−1 for the whole NCP, implying that the maize production has the potential to increase with 20.8 Mt. To increase maize production, the focus areas should be the southcentral NCP, which have a larger yield gap during 2012–2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is under pressure to improve its agricultural productivity to keep up with the demands of a growing population with increasingly resource-intensive diets. This productivity improvement must occur against a backdrop of carbon intensity reduction targets, and a highly fragmented, nutrient-inefficient farming system. Moreover, the Chinese government increasingly recognizes the need to rationalize the management of the 800 million tonnes of agricultural crop straw that China produces each year, up to 40% of which is burned in-field as a waste. Biochar produced from these residues and applied to land could contribute to China's agricultural productivity, resource use efficiency and carbon reduction goals. However competing uses for China's straw residues are rapidly emerging, particularly from bioenergy generation. Therefore it is important to understand the relative economic viability and carbon abatement potential of directing agricultural residues to biochar rather than bioenergy. Using cost-benefit analysis ( CBA) and life-cycle analysis ( LCA), this paper therefore compares the economic viability and carbon abatement potential of biochar production via pyrolysis, with that of bioenergy production via briquetting and gasification. Straw reincorporation and in-field straw burning are used as baseline scenarios. We find that briquetting straw for heat energy is the most cost-effective carbon abatement technology, requiring a subsidy of $7 MgCO2e−1 abated. However China's current bioelectricity subsidy scheme makes gasification ( NPV $12.6 million) more financially attractive for investors than both briquetting ( NPV $7.34 million), and pyrolysis ($−1.84 million). The direct carbon abatement potential of pyrolysis (1.06 MgCO2e per odt straw) is also lower than that of briquetting (1.35 MgCO2e per odt straw) and gasification (1.16 MgCO2e per odt straw). However indirect carbon abatement processes arising from biochar application could significantly improve the carbon abatement potential of the pyrolysis scenario. Likewise, increasing the agronomic value of biochar is essential for the pyrolysis scenario to compete as an economically viable, cost-effective mitigation technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing crop production increases agricultural water consumption (AWC), but whether these two factors are matched in northern and southern China in the past two decades remains controversial. Here we used a remote sensing‐based water‐carbon coupling model combined with satellite observations to quantify the crop production, AWC, and water deficit changes in China over 2003–2018. We show that in northern China, crop production and AWC significantly (p < 0.05) increased, mainly due to planting area expansion, and the increasing rates were 2.6 and 6.2 times greater than those in southern China. The increasing irrigation demand in northern China greatly reduced the availability of stored terrestrial water and could not be met by the agricultural water supply in the next two decades. Our results show that the conflict between the limited agricultural water supply and the increasing irrigation demand cannot be resolved by the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project, and better management in water resources and crop production is needed to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Plain Language Summary: Water is essential to agricultural production. Increasing water consumption in water supply limited areas may result in a water crisis and threaten sustainable food security, especially in China, the most populated agricultural country in the world. There are continuous arguments regarding the matches between agricultural water consumption and supply in China for the past decades and for the future. Satellite‐based observation is an advanced technique to detect the real crop growth characteristics in large scales. Here we used a satellite‐driven water‐carbon coupling model to show the conflicts between the agricultural production and water resources in northern and southern China. We found that expansion in arable land areas increased irrigation water demand in northern China during 2003–2018 and has intensively reduced the available terrestrial water resources in agricultural areas. The additional water supplied by China's largest water transfer project has limited capability to mitigate the agricultural water crisis problems in northern regions in the near future, calling for improved agricultural water management measures to ensure food‐water security in a changing environment. Key Points: The crop production‐water resource conflicts between northern and southern China intensified during 2003–2018Crop water consumption and demand increased faster in north China than in south China due to crop production expansionChina's largest water transfer project has limited capacity to ease water crisis in next two decades, calling for improved water governance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An agricultural production function is estimated using a Chinese county-level dataset along with associated geographic information. County-specific output-input elasticities are computed using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mapped with the geographical information system (GIS). A comparison of the ordinary least squares and GWR estimates confirms that allowing spatial variation in the parameters improves model fit of the agricultural production function, and provides valuable insights into the relative importance of inputs in different regions. Moran's indices reveal the spatial dependence of output per unit of land, and four inputs across regions. Mappings of GWR estimates help to detect a few clusters of high output-input elasticities: for labour in the Northeast, North, Southwest and Northwest China, for land in the Central and Southwest, for mechanical power in the North, Northwest and coastal area of the East and South and for fertiliser in the East. The county-specific scale elasticities suggest constant return to scale is likely to hold in the Central, East, Southwest and South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is the world's largest consumer of water resources, and accurate measurement of crop water footprint (CWF) can provide a scientific basis for evaluating the water use characteristics of agricultural production and guiding water management. The measurement of regional CWF requires large amounts of ground data, and remote sensing provides an effective means to scientifically measure the CWF on a large scale. In this study, we developed an effective means to estimate regional maize CWF based on global evapotranspiration (MOD16 and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)‐Noah) products in China. And we also calculated the CWF based on the FAO Penman‐Monteith equation (FAO‐PM) on the site scale in China. We assessed the accuracy of these methods by comparing them against eight eddy‐covariance based flux tower measurements. Links and differences behind the results of the three water footprint calculations were analyzed in terms of the basic principles and characteristics of the calculations. The results showed that the CWF had a similar distribution based on the MOD16 and GLDAS‐Noah, reflecting the influence of regional soil moisture on the CWF. Computational rationale analysis of the three quantitative methods showed that the ETc‐based method from the FAO‐PM model was similar to the MOD16‐ and GLDAS‐Noah‐based CWF in the wetter areas, two remote sensing‐based methods considered the water constraints during soil evaporation and water dissipation during dry and wet canopy conditions, and were closer to reality than the ETc‐based methods in measuring the CWF in arid and semi‐arid regions. Key Points: An effective means based on MOD16 and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)‐Noah was developed for simulating regional maize crop water footprint (CWF)The accuracy of the estimated CWF based on FAO‐PM was influenced by the soil moistureThe CWF estimated by MOD16 or GLDAS‐Noah was closer to the reality than that estimated by FAO‐PM, especially in arid and semi‐arid region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although evidence shows that roads and conventional railways promote rural development, little is known about the impact of high‐speed rail (HSR) on agricultural output. To bridge this gap, this study explores how the establishment of HSR affects agricultural production. The causal effect was identified by constructing panel data mainly for Chinese counties between 2001 and 2017 using a difference‐in‐differences (DID) framework. The empirical results, after controlling for county‐specific linear trends, reveal that an HSR connection contributes to increasing agricultural value added and food output by approximately 4% and 6%, respectively. Moreover, the effects are mainly driven by increased productivity and adjustments to grain production and economic crops rather than the increased use of observed inputs. These results provide fresh evidence on the effect of transportation improvements on agricultural economies and highlight the need to control nonparallel trends when using the DID method to disentangle the effect. [EconLit Citations: O18, Q13, L92]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large quantities of fertilizers, mainly nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), are used in China's crop production; however, whether N, P, and K still limit yield under the current high input remains unknown. In addition, it is not clear whether magnesium (Mg) potentially limits crop production. To address these issues, a national survey of the soil nutrient status and farmers' fertilization practices was conducted in China to determine the soil N, P, K, and Mg status and current fertilization practices. In addition, various experiments, including optimized NPK (OPTNPK) and Mg fertilizer combined with OPTNPK (OPTNPK + Mg) in comparison with farmers' practices (FFP), were performed across China to identify the potential for reducing NPK application and the need for Mg application in crop production. The survey data from 2699 questionnaires indicated that (1) all soil samples were not deficient in NPK, but 73.0% were limited by Mg. (2) The average N, P (in P2O5), K (in K2O), and Mg (in MgO) balances were 422.6, 334.1, 326.3, and −22.6 kg ha−1, respectively. Only 15.7% of all farmers applied Mg fertilizer. (3) NPK fertilization can be reduced by an average of 28.8% without reducing the crop yield and quality. (4) For most crops, the application of Mg fertilizer increased the crop yield by 5.5–40.6% and improved the quality. However, different crops under different conditions had different responses to Mg fertilization. These results indicate that reduced NPK inputs and increased Mg inputs are equally important for the healthy development and sustainability of China's agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use household‐level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within‐village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation) and (2) the allocation of workers across sectors, in particular the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection). Selection substantially amplifies the productivity effect of distortionary policies by affecting occupational choices that worsen average ability in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused tremendous damages and deaths in Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China. Revealing the relationship between large‐scale circulation patterns and precipitation extremes is vital for understanding the physical mechanisms and providing potential value for improving prediction and hence reducing impacts. Here, nine large‐scale circulation patterns are identified for July–August using the self‐organizing map. We find daily precipitation extremes under the fifth pattern (P5), characterized with the strongest easterly wind anomalies in Henan, feature the highest frequency and the largest intensity. Seven out of total 11 days in the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, and the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger intensity of precipitation extremes is attributed to the dynamical contribution, suggesting more‐intense precipitation extremes under P5 are largely dominated by stronger ascending motions. Plain Language Summary: Henan is one of the most populated provinces in China. Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused devastating catastrophes, such as flooding and urban waterlogging, which resulted in widespread impacts on agricultural production, human livelihood, and economic development. We used a clustering method called self‐organizing map to link large‐scale circulation patterns with daily precipitation extremes in Henan Province. Our results show that the fifth pattern (P5), associated with the strongest easterly wind anomalies over Henan Province, is most conducive to extreme rainfall. Precipitation extremes under P5 exhibit the highest occurrence frequency and the largest mean intensity. Seven out of total 11 days for the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, while the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger mean intensity of precipitation extremes under P5 is mainly caused by strong ascending motions. This work provides important implications for understanding the physical mechanisms and also providing potential value for the forecasting of precipitation extremes in Henan Province. Key Points: The circulation pattern (P5) most conducive to the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes is identified using self‐organizing mapSeven out of total 11 days in the "21·7" and "75·8" catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5 patternThe dynamical processes, that is, the stronger ascending motions, dominate the more‐intense precipitation extremes in P5 pattern [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grain self‐sufficiency (GSS) is gaining increased attention throughout the world, and this holds particularly true for China. This study, therefore, investigated spatial and temporal patterns of GSS at the county level in China from 1980s to the 2010s; then explored future GSS changes in the 2035s according to China's 2016 dietary nutrition guidelines, under the circumstances of maximum, average and minimum grain yield increase rate; and finally discussed the ability of a county to purchase grain to meet its demands. The results indicate that the number of counties with self‐insufficiency for total grain and ration decreased, and the amount of counties with high‐level self‐sufficiency for total grain and ration increased. However, the change in the number of counties with feed grain self‐insufficiency and high‐level self‐sufficiency is opposite to that of ration and total grain. Eastern China was characterised by high GSS of total grain, ration and feed grain. As for different kinds of grain, high level of GSS distributed in main grain producing areas, such as rice in south China, wheat in western China and Huang Huai Hai Plain, maize in north and northwest China and soybean in northeast China. Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has undergone poor food security in the last 30 years. In the 2035s, China's total GSS level and ration self‐sufficiency level will be improved under the maximum and average grain yield increase rate, whilst for feed grain, the self‐sufficiency level will be improved only under the maximum grain yield increase rate. The Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has always been a fragile area of food security. This study plays the vital function in understanding China's food security and contributes to the optimisation of agricultural production as well as the utilisation of both internal and external markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global warming on crop production have received great attention in recent years. However, inconsistent results have been obtained with regard to major crops such as rice and wheat in rice–wheat rotation systems of China. Therefore, we undertook a comprehensive meta‐analysis of literature data. The yield response to warming differed for rice and wheat in the rice–wheat rotation system. Overall, warming significantly increased wheat yield (by 4.8%) but significantly reduced rice yield (by 14.8%). A number of factors were responsible for these observations. For example, rice yield responses varied with the temperature increase, variety and nitrogen (N) rate. Of these, N was the most important variable influencing yield responses to warming. The yield loss for rice was lower at temperature increases of 0.40–1.40°C and at a high N rate than that at temperature increases of 1.60–2.49°C and at a low N rate, respectively. The yield loss of indica rice was lower than that of japonica rice. For wheat, however, yield responses to warming varied with the warming regime, ambient temperature, temperature increases, and CO2 concentrations. Of these factors, ambient temperature was the most important variable influencing yield in response to warming. Warming increased wheat yield at a mean growth season temperature ≤10°C, temperature increases of 0.80–1.50°C, and at ambient CO2 concentrations. In addition, either daytime warming or nighttime warming significantly increased wheat yield. However, all‐day warming had no effect on wheat yields. We conclude that global warming will benefit wheat production but result in a serious loss of rice yield in rice–wheat rotations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid and semi‐arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi‐arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high‐resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS‐2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro‐Ecological Zone model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high‐resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Key Points: Improving the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions in the semi‐arid North ChinaThe high‐resolution Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies projections correspond better with the observationsThe Chinese Medicinal Yam production areas will expand northward in the future, the average yield will increase by 1196–1336 kg DM/ha in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Crop production is facing unprecedented challenges. Despite the fact that the food supply has significantly increased over the past half‐century, ~8.9 and 14.3% people are still suffering from hunger and malnutrition, respectively. Agricultural environments are continuously threatened by a booming world population, a shortage of arable land, and rapid changes in climate. To ensure food and ecosystem security, there is a need to design future crops for sustainable agriculture development by maximizing net production and minimalizing undesirable effects on the environment. The future crops design projects, recently launched by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), aim to develop a roadmap for rapid design of customized future crops using cutting‐edge technologies in the Breeding 4.0 era. In this perspective, we first introduce the background and missions of these projects. We then outline strategies to design future crops, such as improvement of current well‐cultivated crops, de novo domestication of wild species and redomestication of current cultivated crops. We further discuss how these ambitious goals can be achieved by the recent development of new integrative omics tools, advanced genome‐editing tools and synthetic biology approaches. Finally, we summarize related opportunities and challenges in these projects. Significance Statement: To ensure food and ecosystem security, there is a need to design future crops for sustainable agriculture development by maximizing net production and minimalizing undesirable effects on the environment. The future crops design projects, recently launched by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), aim to develop a roadmap for rapid design of customized future crops using cutting‐edge technologies in the Breeding 4.0 era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major aspect of the 'egalitarianism' said to have undermined work incentives in Chinese agricultural production teams during the 1960s and 1970s was the distribution of grain rations independently of work contribution. Although a degree of such 'needs' or 'work-disregarding' distribution may in principle have been consistent with efficient work incentives, each of two contrasting versions of the ration system seem likely to have weakened incentives in 'poorer' teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic diversity of populations has important ecological and evolutionary consequences, whose understanding is fundamental to improve the sustainability of agricultural production. Studies of how differences in agricultural management and environment influence the population structure of insect pests are central to predict outbreaks and optimize control programs. Here, we have studied the population genetic diversity and evolution of Sitobion avenae and Sitobion miscanthi, which are among the most relevant aphid pests of cereals across Europe and Asia, respectively. We have used genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to identify genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to infer the geographic structure and migration patterns. In the present study, we show that the population structure in present‐day populations is different from that described in previous studies, which suggest that they have evolved recently possibly as a response to human‐induced changes in agriculture. This study shows that S. avenae in England is predominantly parthenogenetic and there has been a demographic and spatial expansion of a single genetic cluster, which could correspond with the insecticide resistance superclone identified in previous studies. Conversely, in China, S. miscanthi populations are mostly cyclical parthenogenetic, with one sexual stage in autumn to produce overwintering eggs, and there are six genetically differentiated subpopulations and high genetic differentiation between geographic locations, which suggests that further taxonomical research is needed. Unlike S. avenae in England, there is no evidence for insecticide resistance and there is no predominance of a single lineage in S. miscanthi in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mythimna separata (Walker) moths captured in light traps were monitored in Luohe, central‐northern China, from 1980 to 2016. Annual average temperature recorded an increase of 0.298°C/10 years in this region in the period. Our results indicate that a rising April and May average temperature and earlier occurrences of days recording the highest day temperature (30°C) caused an advanced peak and increasing proportion of high ovarian development levels of first‐generation females in earlier summers. Results using Johnson's formulation of "oogenesis‐flight syndrome" indicate that increasing sexual maturity proportion has resulted in more emigrant individuals in the local first‐generation moth becoming residents, and then increased individuals rapidly in the local second‐generation moth since 2006. Consequences of this action have a boom in corn damage since 2007 in this region. Advanced peak dates of the first and second‐generation moth revealed the same response to increasing average monthly temperatures in the monitoring period. Increasing temperatures, the average May temperature exceeds or equal to 22°C, during the early 2000's may represent a physiological threshold for M. separata development. Our results suggest that climate warming may impact M. separata migratory status and cause a problem of crop production in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore how rice farmers adjust their farm management practices in response to extreme weather events and determine whether their adjustments affect the mean, risk, and downside risk of rice yield. Based on a survey of 1,653 rice farmers in China, our econometric analyses show that the severity of drought and flood in the study areas significantly increases the risk and downside risk of rice yield. The applied farm management measures respond to severe drought and flood and can be considered as adaptation to climate change, an issue often ignored in previous studies. We model adaptation and its impact on rice yield for adapters and non-adapters. Utilizing a moment-based approach, we show that adaptation through farm management measures significantly increases rice yield and reduces the risk and downside risk of rice yield. Several policies, including scaling up the cost-effective farm management adaptation and providing public services related to natural disasters, are recommended to improve adaptive capacity of farmers, particular the poor, in response to extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bstract This article explores the possibility of spatial diversification of weather risk for 17 agricultural production regions in China. We investigate the relation between the size of the buffer load and the size of the trading area of a hypothetical temperature-based insurance. The analysis adopts the hierarchical Archimedean copula approach that allows for flexible modeling of the dependence structure of insured losses. We find that the spatial diversification effect depends on the type of the weather index and the strike level of the insurance. Our findings are relevant for the current discussion on the viability of private crop insurance in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a case study conducted in Henan province in China in order to examine the impact of government investment and agricultural policies in china. Henan province plays a critical role in the national grain balance, accounting for 27 percent of total wheat and 10 percent of maize outputs in China. It has been found in this study that non-price factors such as local climate condition, irrigation and infrastructure are also important measures of encouraging crop production.

The productivity of agriculture in England and the Yangtze Delta are compared c.1620 and c.1820 in order to gauge the performance of the most advanced part of China vis-à-vis its counterpart in Europe. The value of real output is compared using purchasing power parity exchange rates. Output per hectare was nine times greater in the Yangtze Delta than in England. More surprisingly, output per day worked was about 90 per cent of the English performance. This put Yangtze farmers slightly behind English and Dutch farmers c.1820, but ahead of most other farmers in Europe—an impressive achievement. There was little change in Yangtze agricultural productivity between 1620 and 1820. In 1820, the real income of a Yangtze peasant family was also about the same as that of an English agricultural labourer. All was not rosy in the Yangtze, however, for incomes there were on a downward trajectory. Agriculture income per family declined between 1620 and 1820, even though income per day worked changed little since population growth led to smaller farms and fewer days worked per year. The real earnings of women in textile production also declined, since the relative price of cotton cloth dropped—possibly also because a larger population led to greater production. The implication is that the Yangtze family, unlike the English family, had a considerably higher real income c.1620, and that period was the Delta's golden age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochastic frontier approach, and decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress components. Efforts are made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in China's livestock sector, TE improvement has been relatively slow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A generalized maximum entropy approach is adapted to empirically estimate crop-specific production technologies in Chinese agriculture. Despite a modest behavioral assumption about equal marginal returns of nonland inputs among crops, this method does not require price information, which is usually distorted in a centrally planned economy such as China. A multi-output technology for Chinese agriculture is estimated and input allocations for each province are recovered simultaneously. The estimated multi-output production technology and input allocations imply that China may have greater grain production potentials than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the relationship between credit and productivity in Chinese agriculture. Overview of China's farm sector and rural credit market; Disequilibrium model of farm household consumption, production and investment; Econometric specification and empirical results.