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Climatic changes can cause unpredictability in flood regimes that traditional flood risk management (FRM) approaches may struggle with. Therefore, flood resilience is seen as a supplementation to these approaches, putting a larger emphasis on flood acceptance and minimising consequences. An (emergent) group contributing towards flood resilience is civil society. This paper examines how civil society contributions can be furthered and guided in the Netherlands as well as exploring potential limitations in doing so. To achieve this, England is used as a good practice example due to a more developed and defined role for civil society being present here. Data were collected on both actual (England and the Netherlands) and potential (The Netherlands) civil society contributions. These were compared to identify potential avenues for Dutch civil society contributions to flood resilience that can be further investigated. The research shows that the most promising avenues are improving advocacy from citizens, improving local flood awareness and developing relationships between FRM authorities and existing citizen groups that can be harnessed and mobilised to support flood resilience. Additionally, the research also provides insights into potential limitations for transferring resilience approaches from one context to another beyond the cases discussed in this publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and water scarcity pose a risk to the economy, particularly sectors where water is a crucial input to the production process. This paper describes integrated simulations of water shortages from a dynamic national water resource systems model with a static economic input‐output (I‐O) model to assess total drought risk to the economy. To quantify the economic risks of drought and water scarcity, the analysis: (a) integrates a large ensemble of simulated meteorological droughts, propagated through a national hydrological model and water resource systems model to simulate water availability from reservoirs and groundwater; (b) assesses implications of restrictions on water availability for multiple water user categories, representing natural and human contributions to water scarcity; (c) investigates how water shortages propagate into economy‐wide direct and indirect impacts. The study focuses on England and Wales where the water supply system is considered under strain, with growing recognition of the economic risk of prolonged and widespread shortages. The direct Expected Annual Loss (EAL) to water users, averaged over an ensemble equivalent to 2800 years of synthetic daily weather, is estimated to be £11.7 million in the 2011 base‐year. Accounting for indirect economic losses results in a total EAL of £30.2 million in 2011. The most severe event simulated results in a total loss of £1.4 billion in 2011, equivalent to 0.11% of GVA. The analysis provides a framework to assess what the economically efficient level of system reliability should be, and for deciding upon appropriate water management regulations and strategic investments. Key Points: Simulated water availability from a national water resource system model are integrated with a macroeconomic model to assess drought riskThe use of a large ensemble of synthetic drought simulations supports the risk‐based analysis of direct and indirect economic lossesThe method supports national economic assessment of the implications of climate change and different water management strategies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the local environment and population. Projected future changes in climate (e.g. UKCP09) indicate that North West England is likely to experience an increasing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes, leading to flooding, heat waves and storms. Consequently, it is important that the region enhances its preparedness for such events. This paper explores the possibility of developing quantifiable climate risk indices for the case study area of Greater Manchester, using a combination of archival research and statistical analysis of past climate data. For extremes which are the function of a single meteorological variable (e.g. heat waves, pluvial flooding and heavy snowfall) the thresholds proved to be reliable and skillful. Days with maximum daily temperature greater than or equal to 29.2 °C, daily snowfall amount greater than or equal to 6 cm or maximum gust speed greater than or equal to 60 knots are found to be indicative of weather-related impacts which have in the past affected human health/well-being, have caused damage to the urban infrastructure or have severely disrupted services. Extreme events which are the result of a more complex interaction between variables (e.g. drought, freezing conditions) were less well captured by applying the thresholds associated with a single variable in isolation. Such critical threshold indices can be used in conjunction with future projections of climate change to establish weather-related risk for the future. This risk-based approach can subsequently be integrated to climate change adaptation strategies and development planning to ensure future preparedness. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biodiversity and climate crises demand ambitious policies lowering the environmental impacts of farming. Most current interventions incentivise so‐called land‐sharing approaches to address the widespread trade‐off between farm yields and on‐farm environmental outcomes by compensating farmers who adopt yield‐reducing interventions that encourage wildlife or reduce net emissions within farmed land.Here, we present the first quantification of the likely costs to taxpayers of land sharing compared with land sparing, in which large areas are removed from production altogether because of high‐yielding practices elsewhere in the landscape. Focusing on arable production in the United Kingdom, we used a choice experiment to explore farmer preferences and estimated the overall costs of contrasting agri‐environment schemes that delivered increased populations of three well‐studied farmland birds and reduced net carbon emissions in England. We included capital, administration and monitoring costs, and lost food production.Sparing delivered our target biodiversity and carbon emission outcomes at 79% of the food production cost and 48% of the taxpayer cost of sharing. The difference in subsidy payments required by farmers roughly tracked lost food production but other costs favoured sparing even more strongly.The cost‐related merits of sparing would probably increase further in studies incorporating (1) the many species and ecosystem services not deliverable on farmland, (2) the costs of food imports to compensate domestic lost production and (3) countries without as long and extensive a history of agriculture as the United Kingdom.Our results suggest that, for at least some conservation outcomes, continuing a land‐sharing approach in countries such as the United Kingdom is not only an inefficient use of government funds but also undermines conservation and food security in food‐exporting countries which bear the burden of compensating domestic production forgone in the name of conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Pressurised metered‐dose inhalers (MDIs) have a much higher carbon footprint than dry powder inhalers (DPIs). We aimed to describe variations of inhaler options in local adult asthma prescribing guidance. Methods: We reviewed local clinical commissioning group (CCG) adult asthma prescribing guidance for primary care in England in 2019 and recorded DPI and MDI inclusion. The relationship to prescribing data from OpenPrescribing.net was examined. Results: In total, 58 unique guidance documents were analysed covering 144 out of 191 CCGs in England. Only 3% of CCG guidelines expressed an overall preference for DPIs, while 12% explicitly preferred MDIs. The inclusion of DPIs first‐line was 77% for short‐acting β‐agonists, 78% for low‐dose inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) inhalers and 90–96% for combination long‐acting β‐agonist/ICS inhalers. MDIs were included first‐line in 98–100% of these classes. In 26% of CCGs, there was no first‐line DPI option for at least 1 asthma management step. Ten percent of CCGs had no DPI included first‐line for any of the 5 classes examined. Many CCGs recommended higher carbon footprint options; Ventolin MDI (25.6%), inhalers containing HFA227ea (57.9%) and ICS regimes recommending 2 puffs of a lower dose over 1 puff of higher dose (94.2%). MDIs were prescribed more in CCGs that recommended them. Conclusion: Before the COVID pandemic, there was substantial variation between CCGs in adult asthma prescribing guidance regarding higher and lower carbon footprint options. There may still be scope to amend local guidance to improve clinical and environmental outcomes. This study provides a method and baseline for further investigation of this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flood maps covering the whole European continent have become available in recent years. However, their ability to complement or replace high‐resolution local flood maps was not investigated so far. In this paper we compare pan‐European estimates of extreme sea levels and coastal flood extents at given return periods with observations and high‐resolution reference maps. The analysis is done for two pan‐European assessments and one global study. We find that whereas the models have good accuracy in estimating storm surge heights, large disparities exist between the large‐scale flood maps and four local maps of flood extents from England, the Netherlands, Poland, and France. Moreover, the accuracy of the underlying digital elevation model and assumptions about flood protection existing in a given area influence significantly the results. In addition, the first pan‐European projection of temporal trends in the size of flood zones is presented, with and without assuming flood protection levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at the 29th New Phytologist Symposium: Stomata in Manchester, England in July 2012 on the global impact of stomatic pores and guard cells is presented. Topics include stomatal development and evolution, climate models and improved crop production. Its logo is also provided which shows the role of such cells in regulating worldwide issues such as climate change and breeding of sustainable crop.

Adapting to climate change is just one among many challenges facing river managers. The response will involve balancing the long-term water demands of society with the changing needs of the environment in sustainable and cost effective ways. This paper describes a modeling framework for evaluating the sensitivity of low river flows to different configurations of abstraction licensing under both historical climate variability and expected climate change. A rainfall-runoff model is used to quantify trade-offs among environmental flow (e-flow) requirements, potential surface and groundwater abstraction volumes, and the frequency of harmful low-flow conditions. Using the River Itchen in southern England as a case study it is shown that the abstraction volume is more sensitive to uncertainty in the regional climate change projection than to the e-flow target. It is also found that "smarter" licensing arrangements (involving a mix of hands off flows and "rising block" abstraction rules) could achieve e-flow targets more frequently than conventional seasonal abstraction limits, with only modest reductions in average annual yield, even under a hotter, drier climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size is a key parameter of organism fitness. While the impact of climate change on body size has received increasing attention, the long‐term consequences of landscape fragmentation are still poorly known. These two major global threats may potentially induce opposite trends: the decrease of body size in warmer environments (e.g. individuals developing faster) or the selection of larger individuals in fragmented habitats (e.g. large individuals more capable of reaching distant patches). We assessed the relationship between temperature and landscape fragmentation with mean body size during the last century, within four European regions (Austria, Belgium, England and above the Arctic circle in Scandinavia) and among queens of five bumblebee species. At the regional scale, we first analysed the variation over time of body size and the two hypothesised drivers, temperature and landscape fragmentation. Then, at the local landscape scale, we tested whether body size varied according to these drivers irrespective of the region. At the regional level, we observed a statistically clear increase of queen body size corresponding to an increase of landscape fragmentation (i.e. in Belgium and England). There was no increase of size when fragmentation did not increase (i.e. in Austria and above the Arctic Circle). Temperature also increased through time in all regions. At the local landscape scale, we found that all species were impacted by changes in both climate and landscape fragmentation but show different trends. The body size of the two largest species significantly increased at landscape level with higher fragmentation while body size of the two smallest species decreased with higher fragmentation. We highlight that, in a context of global changes, landscape fragmentation can also be a major driver of body size clines. Depending on the dispersal abilities of species, larger species could be positively selected for and overcome landscape fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location: Europe. Taxon: Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods: We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results: We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, Hd = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (Hd = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (<1,000 meters above sea level) equating to 1 to 12 unique haplotypes being at risk under climate scenarios projecting 1°C and 2–3°C increases respectfully in global temperature by 2070. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that historical range expansion and retraction processes by a cold‐adapted mountain species caused diversification between populations, resulting in unique genetic diversity which may be at risk if distributions of cold‐adapted species shrink in future. Assisted colonizations of individuals from at‐risk populations into climatically suitable unoccupied habitat might help conserve unique genetic diversity, and translocations into remaining populations might increase their genetic diversity and hence their ability to adapt to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread declines in farmland biodiversity have led to state‐funded schemes which take land out of production to create (semi‐)natural habitats for biodiversity (e.g. EU agri‐environment schemes; US Conservation Reserve Program). Common features of such schemes are grassland strips at the edges of agricultural fields, and we examine potential co‐benefits of these biodiversity set‐asides for contributing to grassland connectivity. Although set‐aside strips had negligible impact on landscape‐scale species persistence (using metapopulation models parameterized for flying insects run on 267 landscapes of ~30 000 ha across England), they nonetheless improved connectivity in 74% (198/267) of landscapes (comparing landscapes with and without set‐asides), as shown by range expansion rates increasing by up to 100%. Benefits of set‐aside strips varied according to species type (high/low dispersal, high/low population density), but had little benefit for species with low dispersal and small population sizes, which generally failed to expand. High dispersal/high density species were already successful expanders regardless of set‐asides (> 75% of simulations were successful without set‐asides) although expansion rates were still improved when set‐asides were added. Whilst alternative strategies for placement of set‐aside strips (more/less aggregated), revealed no consensus 'better' strategy across species types, set‐aside benefits were generally greatest in landscapes with intermediate availability of semi‐natural grassland (0.5‐4% cover). We conclude that small‐scale set‐asides have the potential to improve connectivity, which we expect to help some species track climate change, and connect habitat patches within existing climate space for others. However, set‐asides are unlikely to benefit low dispersal species which are probably at greatest risk from agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources planning and management by water utilities have traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates the analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modeling system that combines hydrological modeling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth, and land‐use change on the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment in the south of England. The results show that alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the south of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represent a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognize their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies. Key Points: Proposes an integrated water quality‐quantity model,including abstraction rules and reservoir water quality,for PWS reliability assessmentAssesses the impact of land‐use change, and potential mitigations, on water supply reliabilityApplies a novel climate dataset to explore hydrological variability and change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly observations are used to study the relationship between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26° N and sea level (ζ) on the New England coast (northeastern United States) over nonseasonal timescales during 2004–2017. Variability in ζ is anticorrelated with AMOC on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. This anticorrelation reflects the stronger underlying antiphase relationship between ageostrophic Ekman‐related AMOC transports due to local zonal winds across 26° N and ζ changes arising from local wind and pressure forcing along the coast. These distinct local atmospheric variations across 26° N and along coastal New England are temporally correlated with one another on account of large‐scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Geostrophic AMOC contributions from the Gulf Stream through the Florida Straits and upper‐mid‐ocean transport across the basin are together uncorrelated with ζ. This interpretation contrasts with past studies that understood ζ and AMOC as being in geostrophic balance with one another. Key Points: The AMOC at 26° N and New England coastal sea level are anticorrelated across intraseasonal and interannual timescales during 2004–2017This anticorrelation reflects distinct local oceanic responses to temporally correlated, spatially disparate atmospheric forcing mechanismsThe relevant local atmospheric forcing is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and West Atlantic Index [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstractions for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydrometeorological variability is considered within a synthetic data set of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977–2004) and for projections for near future (2022–2049) and far future (2072–2099). The probability, magnitude, and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, more frequent, and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations. Plain Language Summary: Droughts are expected to become more common in many regions worldwide due to climate change. During droughts events, environmental regulators can impose water abstraction restrictions for irrigation to protect drinking water supplies and meet the minimum water requirements for the natural environment. This study provides a novel approach to evaluate the risk of economic losses in irrigated agriculture due to water abstraction restrictions implemented during current and future drought conditions under climate change, using England and Wales as a case study. A data set of modeled daily rainfall and river flow for a baseline period (1977–2004) and for near future (2022–2049) and far future (2072–2099) is used. Decisions regarding when to implement restrictions in 129 catchments are made considering a set of rainfall and river flow thresholds, with the associated economic losses calculated by crop type. Results show that in the future water abstraction restrictions for irrigation will become more severe, more frequent, and longer. The highest economic losses will affect the most drought‐sensitive crops, which are located in water stressed catchments and have a high financial value in the food market. This research highlights the importance of a collaborative work between environmental regulators and irrigators to manage scarce water resources and balance environmental and economic considerations under drought. Key Points: A novel probabilistic approach of the risk of economic losses in irrigated agriculture due to climate change and drought management is shownFuture water restrictions on irrigation in England and Wales are projected to increase in duration, severity, and frequencyHydroclimatic variability, drought management, and the distribution and sensitivity of crops to water stress shape the economic impacts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bateman, M. D., Buckland, P. C., Whyte, M. A., Ashurst, R. A., Boulter, C. & Panagiotakopulu, E. 2011: Re-evaluation of the Last Glacial Maximum typesite at Dimlington, UK. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00204.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Recent erosion has allowed re-examination of the stratigraphy and sampling for both optically stimulated luminescence dating and palaeoecological analysis of the key sections in the Last Glacial Maximum deposits at Dimlington in East Yorkshire, England. Both stratigraphy and fossil insect evidence support a subaerial origin for laminated and cross-bedded sediments between two diamictons previously interpreted as synchronous. The fossil biota indicates conditions similar to those of a pond on sandur in the high Arctic, with little or no vegetation cover. The existence of distinct oscillations of the ice front is indicated. The first, within the period 21.7-16.2 ka, appears coincident with climate warming, as deduced from Greenland ice-core evidence, and is interpreted as an ice stream associated with changing flow patterns within the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The second, dating between 16.2 and 15.5 ka, appears to coincide with a climatic cooling, although current models show that the BIIS had by this period already retreated back to ice centres. This new evidence supports the view that the eastern sector of the BIIS did not reach its maximal extent synchronously with other parts of the BIIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Severn Estuary is an ideal site for tidal renewable energy projects and the probability of coastal flood risk in the estuary will increase accordingly due to climate change. Therefore, it is significant to predict the future status of coastal flooding in this estuary using various scenarios with the effects of climate change and potential barrage construction. An existing two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is outlined first. Three scenarios at the open seaward boundary are then presented. Finally, the model was used to simulate the hydrodynamic processes in the estuary using three boundary scenarios. Simulated results show that (i) without the barrage, the maximum levels along the estuary could rise by 1.0-1.2 m due to sea-level rise, and the effect of extreme sea levels on the distribution of maximum water levels would be noticeable only in the outer estuary reach; (ii) with the barrage, the maximum water levels could reduce by 0.5-1.2 m upstream of the barrage even if a sea-level rise of 1.0 m would occur by 2100, and extreme sea levels could not influence the distribution of maximum water levels upstream of the barrage; and (iii) the future flood risk in a small coastal floodplain would increase and the potential losses could reach £6.5 M/year due to sea-level rise without the barrage, and it could be avoided completely if the barrage were to be constructed as proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar geometry is used to accurately date the four paintings of Waterloo Bridge and one painting of Charing Cross Bridge, from Monet's London Series, that have the sun clearly visible within the image. Monet reworked the ‘enveloppe’ within these images on subsequent days when the sun was in a similar position but did not change the position of the sun. Letters to Monet's wife and contemporary weather data verify the probable dates. This confirms that Monet painted what he saw and that we can cautiously use his London Series as a pictorial ‘weather diary’ of typical Victorian London fogs. Monet painted these images from the Savoy Hotel during stays in 1900 and/or 1901 and the fifth floor balcony he used has now been located for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Marine flooding, particularly that associated with North Sea storm surges, has posed a recurrent threat to human use of the Thames Estuary and its shorelines. During the later Middle Ages a growing frequency of surges placed increasing burdens upon the resources of coastal communities. This is reflected in expenditure upon sea-walls and related defences and in the frequent issuing of commissions of sewers, the mechanism by which the Crown intervened in matters of flood prevention and drainage. In the era of labour shortages initiated by the Black Death of 1349, the defence of some reclaimed marshlands around the Estuary and tidal river was abandoned in a precursor of managed retreat or realignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Environment Agency in England is investing £2.5 billion with the aim of reducing flood risk to at least 300,000 homes by 2020/21. Several of the schemes being considered are on rivers that have experienced an upsurge of flooding over recent years. Decisions on whether to invest and how high to build are usually made on the basis of stationary methods of flood frequency analysis that assume the probability of flood flows is unchanging over time. Following successive severe floods in Cumbria, trend tests and non‐stationary flood frequency analysis techniques have been applied. These allow parameters of the frequency distribution to change over time or with some other covariate. The resulting estimates of flow, for the present day, were up to 55% higher than the stationary estimates at river gauges in north‐west England. The results have been incorporated into the scheme appraisal process. A national analysis indicates that there is evidence of upward trends in peak flows at nearly a quarter of river flow gauges across Great Britain. Many rivers show an abrupt increase in flood flows in the late 1990s. Trends tend to occur in upland areas but they are also seen on some rivers across south‐east England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]