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Climatic changes can cause unpredictability in flood regimes that traditional flood risk management (FRM) approaches may struggle with. Therefore, flood resilience is seen as a supplementation to these approaches, putting a larger emphasis on flood acceptance and minimising consequences. An (emergent) group contributing towards flood resilience is civil society. This paper examines how civil society contributions can be furthered and guided in the Netherlands as well as exploring potential limitations in doing so. To achieve this, England is used as a good practice example due to a more developed and defined role for civil society being present here. Data were collected on both actual (England and the Netherlands) and potential (The Netherlands) civil society contributions. These were compared to identify potential avenues for Dutch civil society contributions to flood resilience that can be further investigated. The research shows that the most promising avenues are improving advocacy from citizens, improving local flood awareness and developing relationships between FRM authorities and existing citizen groups that can be harnessed and mobilised to support flood resilience. Additionally, the research also provides insights into potential limitations for transferring resilience approaches from one context to another beyond the cases discussed in this publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global increase in extreme weather events in recent years has spurred political scientists to examine the potential political effects of such phenomena. This paper explores effect of flooding on electoral outcomes and offers evidence that the impact of adverse events varies with changes in political context. Using a difference‐in‐differences identification strategy to analyse three consecutive general elections in the United Kingdom (2015, 2017 and 2019), the paper finds variability in partisan electoral benefit from one election to the next that calls into question the blind retrospection and rally‐round‐the‐leader explanations which are often advanced to account for electoral reactions to natural disasters. Instead, changing party positions on environmental issues appear to account more convincingly for shifts in electoral support in response to flooding. This suggests that parties can derive benefit from, or be punished for, the positions they take on environmental issues when extreme weather events affect citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the challenging – and frightening – times in which we now live, education is seen as playing a key role in making change for the better. However, the Department for Education's (2022) strategy on education for sustainability and climate change, applicable to schools in England, is lacking in many areas and fails to address students', teachers', and teacher educators' priorities. Crucially, the environment and climate emergency greatly concerns many children and young people and these issues should be addressed across the whole curriculum, not just in geography and science. Further, there needs to be more focus on emotions rather than facts, wellbeing rather than the economy. So, the question is: How can we 'green' art, craft and design education to ensure it is both effective and affective? Art can change the world because it is 'homeless, endless, and edgeless' – this sounds exciting but does not aid teachers in curriculum design. In this paper I will share an emergent manifesto for an environmentally responsible art, craft and design (ACD) curriculum... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and water scarcity pose a risk to the economy, particularly sectors where water is a crucial input to the production process. This paper describes integrated simulations of water shortages from a dynamic national water resource systems model with a static economic input‐output (I‐O) model to assess total drought risk to the economy. To quantify the economic risks of drought and water scarcity, the analysis: (a) integrates a large ensemble of simulated meteorological droughts, propagated through a national hydrological model and water resource systems model to simulate water availability from reservoirs and groundwater; (b) assesses implications of restrictions on water availability for multiple water user categories, representing natural and human contributions to water scarcity; (c) investigates how water shortages propagate into economy‐wide direct and indirect impacts. The study focuses on England and Wales where the water supply system is considered under strain, with growing recognition of the economic risk of prolonged and widespread shortages. The direct Expected Annual Loss (EAL) to water users, averaged over an ensemble equivalent to 2800 years of synthetic daily weather, is estimated to be £11.7 million in the 2011 base‐year. Accounting for indirect economic losses results in a total EAL of £30.2 million in 2011. The most severe event simulated results in a total loss of £1.4 billion in 2011, equivalent to 0.11% of GVA. The analysis provides a framework to assess what the economically efficient level of system reliability should be, and for deciding upon appropriate water management regulations and strategic investments. Key Points: Simulated water availability from a national water resource system model are integrated with a macroeconomic model to assess drought riskThe use of a large ensemble of synthetic drought simulations supports the risk‐based analysis of direct and indirect economic lossesThe method supports national economic assessment of the implications of climate change and different water management strategies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meat production and consumption are major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and other aspects of environmental degradation. It is the aim of this paper to explore red meat in the configuration of main meals eaten out in England across types and styles of cuisine, and to consider the implications for transition towards less resource intensive ways of eating in the future. We show that the odds ratio of eating a dish without red meat is significantly lower in North American/European and Near/Middle Eastern cuisines compared with East Asian (with no difference between South and East Asian), that women are more likely than men to eat fish and poultry (with no gender differences in vegetarian dishes), that Prestonians are the least likely to select a vegetarian dish, compared with people in London and Bristol, and that the odds of a vegetarian dish compared with red meat is higher amongst managerial workers compared with the routine manual workers (with no other statistically significant class differences). We suggest the term "translated cuisine" to refer cuisines that travel and become incorporated into the palate of the new food culture, and discuss how this could play a role in transitions towards less meat‐centred patterns of food consumption in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the structure, regulation and performance of the water industry in England and Wales in the postprivatisation period from 1989. The paper examines the improvements achieved in drinking water and wastewater effluent quality and in the overall performance. The challenges facing the industry in the areas of water resource planning, energy efficiency and chemical consumption, arising from climate change, are also considered. The paper considers how the industry's current approach and attitude towards research and development (R&D) will influence its ability to meet the latest challenges laid down by the regulators. The paper calls for increased emphasis on, and incentive for, R&D in the water industry to ensure sustainable solutions in both water and sewage treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having impacts on biodiversity within Europe, with habitats and species needing to change and adapt to rising global temperatures and shifts in bio-climatic zones. Spatial planning represents an important intervention to further European, national and local biodiversity objectives for climate change adaptation. Drawing on case-studies of plans for inland and coastal areas, and involving stakeholder workshops, this paper reports on a trans-national study examining the scope of spatial plans in the Netherlands, England and France in addressing the impact of climate change. It concludes that spatial planning is making provision for biodiversity and dynamic natural processes. However, while good practice in planning for biodiversity under conditions of climate change is developing, systematic use is not being made of available procedures. The paper examines some of the barriers to implementation of this new policy commitment to climate change adaptation. Recommendations are made covering policy development to include climate change impacts upon biodiversity, modified procedures for plan-making and the appraisal of plans and projects. Amongst the specific measures recommended are the climate-proofing of projects and plans through the use of EIA and SEA; the integration of plans through adoption of common objectives and review of time horizons and boundaries; and an ecosystem-based planning approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling the role of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystem functioning is paramount to protect water quality in lake catchments worldwide. For more effective management, however, we need to determine whether these two forcing factors interact at different spatial and temporal scales., This study compares centennial-scale archival data and lake sediment records of eutrophication from Blelham Tarn and previously published data from Lake Windermere's North Basin in the English Lake District. We aimed to quantify how lake morphometry, catchment characteristics and landscape position influence the relationship between climate, local land use and algal community change., Redundancy analysis revealed that increases in cyanobacterial pigments and stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon in sediments of Blelham Tarn from the 1970s onwards correlate strongly with rising densities of sheep and cattle in the catchment. Concomitant installation of piped water and sewage processing facilities appeared to lead to the expansion of filamentous cyanobacteria. In contrast, elevated fossil pigments from siliceous algae after 1990 were related inversely to winter precipitation, suggesting seasonal changes in hydraulic flushing also influenced the algal community response to centennial-scale fertilisation., Abundance of vernal algae increased synchronously in Blelham Tarn and Lake Windermere's North Basin after regional agricultural intensification in the mid-nineteenth century. In contrast, differences in timing of wastewater disposal and treatment at each site led to asynchronous changes in summer taxa such as filamentous cyanobacteria., This study highlights that lake catchments can act as local filters to regional climate change, both due to differences in localised land-use and intrinsic hydrological features (e.g. catchment:lake area, flushing rate). Further, this paper highlights the ability of palaeolimnology to aid identification of significant nutrient sources over different spatial scales for effective catchment water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at the 29th New Phytologist Symposium: Stomata in Manchester, England in July 2012 on the global impact of stomatic pores and guard cells is presented. Topics include stomatal development and evolution, climate models and improved crop production. Its logo is also provided which shows the role of such cells in regulating worldwide issues such as climate change and breeding of sustainable crop.

ABSTRACT Wetlands are fragile ecosystems that provide a range of useful functions. However, such ecosystems have been experiencing persistent pressures and stresses from a range of socio-economic drivers in the last few centuries. In the 21st century, changes in global climate are expected to have impacts on hydrological and water supply regimes, which will in turn impose additional pressures on wetlands. Consequently, the need for quantitative methods to evaluate the likely impact of climate change is essential if appropriate conservation strategies and integrated water management regimes are to be developed. In this paper, a methodology is presented to evaluate the implications of potential climate change on groundwater-fed wetlands underlain by an unconfined limestone (Chalk) aquifer in eastern England, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the UK. A daily weather generator, a recharge model and a groundwater model have been coupled to investigate the most extreme consequences of future climate change as described by the UKCIP02 'high' greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Simulations showed that a declining trend in wetland water levels could result in loss of species with a small tolerance to dry conditions by the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we show how a seemingly unremarkable object - a cattle grid - has come to presence climate change in partial and contingent ways on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK. We identify the cattle grid as an 'anticipatory object' through which conservation organisations seek to manage the future and adapt to climate change, but which at the same time presences that unthought-of future for others in the landscape. We explore the ways in which the cattle grid acts to presence something that is not only absent - climate change - but has uncertain imminence. We investigate the ways in which the cattle grid make climate relevant as an embodied and experiential process, a physical and intellectual artefact, and the means to imagine climate and the ways it might change. Drawing upon interpretative approaches informed by theorisations of materiality, presence and absence to understand climate change as a social phenomenon, we go beyond a consideration of this ordinary object defined by its function to consider how the object is experienced, the processes and practices through which people relate to it, and the ways in which social meaning accumulates around it. The empirical basis for this argument is provided by in-depth interviews with local representatives of Natural England, residents and farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could have dramatic consequences for the earth's environment, especially its hydrology, yet the 'noise' of natural climate variability can mask the impacts of climate change on shorter time scales, and can act (in an unpredictable way) to enhance or reduce its effect in any given period in the future. Thus, impact studies based on time slices, which look at modelled differences between baseline (e.g. 1961-1990) and future (e.g. 2070-2099) periods, can be misleading. This paper makes use of three new transient climate projections, from a perturbed parameter ensemble of a regional climate model (RCM) covering the period 1950-2099, to investigate transient changes in flood frequency and timing for two example catchments in England. Annual maximum (AM) time series are extracted from modelled flow timeseries (for hourly, daily mean and running 30-day mean flows). The AM series are analysed in terms of flood frequency (using a fitted generalised logistic distribution) and timing in a 30-year moving window. A non-linear trend analysis is performed on the derived time series, with permutation testing to estimate statistical significance. The results show that changes over the period are often non-linear, and vary considerably in size and statistical significance according to catchment, flow time step and RCM ensemble member. The relative effects of the three RCM ensemble members are consistent with their relative climate sensitivities. A nationwide analysis, using daily mean flows from a grid-based runoff and routing model for the UK with one of the RCM ensemble members, was consistent with the catchment results in terms of direction of trends, but generally gave trends of a higher magnitude, indicating the presence of some hydrological model structure uncertainty. The nationwide results suggest increased flood risk across much of the country. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the local environment and population. Projected future changes in climate (e.g. UKCP09) indicate that North West England is likely to experience an increasing frequency and intensity of meteorological extremes, leading to flooding, heat waves and storms. Consequently, it is important that the region enhances its preparedness for such events. This paper explores the possibility of developing quantifiable climate risk indices for the case study area of Greater Manchester, using a combination of archival research and statistical analysis of past climate data. For extremes which are the function of a single meteorological variable (e.g. heat waves, pluvial flooding and heavy snowfall) the thresholds proved to be reliable and skillful. Days with maximum daily temperature greater than or equal to 29.2 °C, daily snowfall amount greater than or equal to 6 cm or maximum gust speed greater than or equal to 60 knots are found to be indicative of weather-related impacts which have in the past affected human health/well-being, have caused damage to the urban infrastructure or have severely disrupted services. Extreme events which are the result of a more complex interaction between variables (e.g. drought, freezing conditions) were less well captured by applying the thresholds associated with a single variable in isolation. Such critical threshold indices can be used in conjunction with future projections of climate change to establish weather-related risk for the future. This risk-based approach can subsequently be integrated to climate change adaptation strategies and development planning to ensure future preparedness. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adapting to climate change is just one among many challenges facing river managers. The response will involve balancing the long-term water demands of society with the changing needs of the environment in sustainable and cost effective ways. This paper describes a modeling framework for evaluating the sensitivity of low river flows to different configurations of abstraction licensing under both historical climate variability and expected climate change. A rainfall-runoff model is used to quantify trade-offs among environmental flow (e-flow) requirements, potential surface and groundwater abstraction volumes, and the frequency of harmful low-flow conditions. Using the River Itchen in southern England as a case study it is shown that the abstraction volume is more sensitive to uncertainty in the regional climate change projection than to the e-flow target. It is also found that "smarter" licensing arrangements (involving a mix of hands off flows and "rising block" abstraction rules) could achieve e-flow targets more frequently than conventional seasonal abstraction limits, with only modest reductions in average annual yield, even under a hotter, drier climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A homogenized 76-year daily-mean temperature series is presented for Moor House, an upland peatland meteorological station in northern England, which provides the longest instrumental temperature record in the UK uplands. This paper assesses trends in the temperature record over time compared to the nearby lowland temperature record at Durham. Overall warming for 1991-2006 compared with 1931-1960 and 1961-1990 was approximately the same at the upland site (0.53 °C and 0.73 °C for the two time periods, respectively) as at Durham (0.61 °C and 0.71 °C), maintaining a similar lapse rate. However, winter warming is dominant at Moor House and more pronounced and concentrated over a shorter period than at Durham; summer warming is more prominent at Durham. Therefore, seasonal lapse rates have changed and become more divergent between winter and summer half-years. Rather than changes in the dominance of particular air-masses over the study area accounting for seasonal lapse rate changes, there had been significant steepening of lapse rates over time for some air flow types. Minimum temperatures have increased more than maximum temperatures at Moor House with a consequent significant reduction in diurnal range. At Durham minimum and maximum temperatures have changed in approximate tandem so that there is no significant change in diurnal temperature range. The frequency of air frosts reduced by approximately 23% (from 129 days per year to 99) at Moor House from 1991-2006 compared to 1953-1980, and this may have major implications for the functioning of terrestrial and aquatic systems in the region. These results demonstrate that while overall annual warming in the uplands and lowlands within particular regions may be similar, even where annual lapse rates have been maintained, the seasonal distribution of that warming may be quite different even over short distances and so lowland records are not a reliable indicator of regional upland temperature change. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of forward scenarios is a useful method of envisaging the environmental implications of potential changes in land use, as a tool for policy development. In this paper, a spatially explicit case study is used to provide insight into the environmental impacts of Common Agricultural Policy reform on Skylark Alauda arvensis, a species which is widespread on arable farmland, breeds in crops and has declined in recent decades. A generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate Skylark breeding population densities in different crops, using survey data collected from farms in the east of England, supplemented by the literature. Model outputs were then used to predict Skylark densities in an East Anglian Joint Character Area dominated by arable cropping. Predicted densities were mapped at field level using GIS, based on actual cropping derived from Integrated Administration and Control System data collected for the administration of subsidy payments. Three future scenarios were then created, based on expert opinion of potential changes in cropping over the next 5 years, and potential changes in Skylark density mapped on the basis of the predicted changes in cropping patterns. Overall, Skylark densities were predicted to decrease on average by 11–14% under ‘market-led’ (increasing wheat and oilseed rape, reduced set-aside) and ‘energy crop’ (5% area under short rotation coppice) scenarios, but remained virtually unchanged under an ‘environment-led’ (diverse cropping) scenario. The ‘market-led’ scenario is closest to short-term agricultural trajectories, but wider cultivation of biomass energy crops as modelled under the ‘energy crop’ scenario could occur in the medium term if energy policies are favourable. Appropriate mitigation strategies therefore need to be implemented if a continued decline in the Skylark population on lowland arable farmland is to be averted. The results provide a readily accessible visualization of the potential impacts of land-use change for policy-makers; similar techniques could be applied to visualize effects of changes arising through other drivers, including climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the potential role of floodplain woodland in flood alleviation. In theory, the presence of trees and associated woody debris on the floodplain increases the hydraulic roughness, thus slowing down flood flows and enhancing flood storage. One and two-dimensional models were used to simulate a 2.2 km reach of river in south-west England to test this theory for a 1 in 100 year flood using appropriate roughness parameters. Both models predicted a reduction in water velocity within the woodland, increasing water level by up to 270 mm and creating a backwater effect that extended nearly 400 m upstream. Flood storage increased by 15 and 71%, while flood peak travel time was increased by 30 and 140 min for the two scenarios simulated. The results suggest that there is considerable scope for using strategically placed floodplain woodland to alleviate downstream flooding. In particular, it offers a means of tackling the increased flood risk associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a farmer in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4°C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each °C warmer. A comparison with historical farming records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flood maps covering the whole European continent have become available in recent years. However, their ability to complement or replace high‐resolution local flood maps was not investigated so far. In this paper we compare pan‐European estimates of extreme sea levels and coastal flood extents at given return periods with observations and high‐resolution reference maps. The analysis is done for two pan‐European assessments and one global study. We find that whereas the models have good accuracy in estimating storm surge heights, large disparities exist between the large‐scale flood maps and four local maps of flood extents from England, the Netherlands, Poland, and France. Moreover, the accuracy of the underlying digital elevation model and assumptions about flood protection existing in a given area influence significantly the results. In addition, the first pan‐European projection of temporal trends in the size of flood zones is presented, with and without assuming flood protection levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]