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Stress forecasting is the cognitive process of anticipating and preparing to respond to future stress experiences based on one's own perceived future stress. Though it may seem intuitive that stress forecasting predicts stress, competing theories exist that indicate the relationship is not so inherent. In this paper we conducted two studies which both examine the relationships between stress forecasting and day stress, examining two different stress domains (appraisal and coping). Participants in Study 1 (n = 143 working adults) and Study 2 (n = 60 undergraduate students) completed 4 and 14 days, respectively, of ecological momentary assessment reports of stress appraisal forecasting, stress coping forecasting, stress appraisal reports, and stress coping reports, for a combined total of 5280 completed assessments. Exploratory analysis in Study 2 examined the importance of morning forecast discrepancy in relation to evening recalls of day stress. Results indicate that within domain (e.g., stress appraisal to appraisal reports), or domain specific, stress forecasting is predictive of day stress, and that across domains (e.g., stress appraisal to coping reports), or domain crossover, was consistent between stress appraisal forecasting and stress coping reports. Results suggest that magnitude of bias and day outlook (i.e., being either optimistic or pessimistic) about one's coping ability matters for day stress outcomes. Findings have implications for developing challenge‐based thinking interventions and further understanding cognitive processes for building stress management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event definition and censoring are given. Hazard models are introduced, with special emphasis on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We provide check lists that may be useful both when fitting the model and assessing its goodness of fit and when interpreting the results. Special attention is paid to how to avoid problems with immortal time bias by introducing time-dependent covariates. We discuss prediction based on hazard models and difficulties when attempting to draw proper causal conclusions from such models. Finally, we present a series of examples where the methods and check lists are exemplified. Computational details and implementation using the freely available R software are documented in Supplementary Material. The paper was prepared as part of the STRATOS initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) can predict clinically relevant outcomes or events. Typically, prognostic CPMs are derived to predict the risk of a single future outcome. However, there are many medical applications where two or more outcomes are of interest, meaning this should be more widely reflected in CPMs so they can accurately estimate the joint risk of multiple outcomes simultaneously. A potentially naïve approach to multi-outcome risk prediction is to derive a CPM for each outcome separately, then multiply the predicted risks. This approach is only valid if the outcomes are conditionally independent given the covariates, and it fails to exploit the potential relationships between the outcomes. This paper outlines several approaches that could be used to develop CPMs for multiple binary outcomes. We consider four methods, ranging in complexity and conditional independence assumptions: namely, probabilistic classifier chain, multinomial logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and a Bayesian probit model. These are compared with methods that rely on conditional independence: separate univariate CPMs and stacked regression. Employing a simulation study and real-world example, we illustrate that CPMs for joint risk prediction of multiple outcomes should only be derived using methods that model the residual correlation between outcomes. In such a situation, our results suggest that probabilistic classification chains, multinomial logistic regression or the Bayesian probit model are all appropriate choices. We call into question the development of CPMs for each outcome in isolation when multiple correlated or structurally related outcomes are of interest and recommend more multivariate approaches to risk prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accompanying the ageing of contemporary ageing societies is an increase in age associated morbidity, with dementia having an important impact. Mental frailty in later life is a source of fear for many and a major policy concern to all those concerned with health and welfare services. This introduction to the special issue on 'Ageing, dementia and the social mind' situates the selected papers within the context of debates about dementia and its social relations. In particular it draws attention to the importance of the social imaginary of the fourth age and what this means for the issue of personhood, care, social representations of dementia and its social contextualisation. The papers illuminating these themes draw on a variety of disciplines and approaches; from the social sciences to the humanities and from the theoretical to the empirical in order to help orientate future researchers to the complexities of dementia and the social and cultural matrix in which it exists. This paper provides an introduction to the potential for a more extended sociology of dementia; one which could combine the insights from medical sociology with the concerns of social gerontology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Home hemodialysis (HD) was first introduced in the 1960s with a rapid increase in its use due to inability of dialysis units to accommodate patient demand. A sharp decline was subsequently seen with expanding outpatient dialysis facilities and changes in reimbursement policies. In the last decade, with emerging reports of benefits with home HD and more user-friendly equipment, there has been resurgence in home HD. However, home HD remains underutilized with considerable variations between and within countries. This paper will review the history of home HD, elaborate on its established benefits, identify some of the barriers in uptake of this modality and expand on potential strategies to overcome these barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]