1. On the use of the intensityscale verification technique to assess operational precipitation forecasts.
- Author
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Gabriella Csima and Anna Ghelli
- Subjects
- *
PRECIPITATION forecasting , *ERROR analysis in mathematics , *QUANTITATIVE research , *COMPARATIVE studies , *CASE studies , *METEOROLOGICAL services - Abstract
The article describes the attempt to include the intensityscale technique introduced by Casati et al. 2004 into a set of standardized verifications used in operational centres. The intensityscale verification approach accounts for the spatial structure of the forecast field and allows the skill to be diagnosed as a function of the scale of the forecast error and intensity of the precipitation events. The intensityscale method has been used to verify two different resolutions of the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts ECMWF operational quantitative precipitation forecast QPF over France, and to compare the performance of the ECMWF and the Hungarian Meteorological Service operational model ALADIN forecasts, run over Hungary. Two case studies have been introduced, which show some interesting insight into the spatial scale of the error. The distribution of daily skill score for an extended period of time is also presented. The intensityscale technique shows that the forecasts in general exhibit better skill for largescale events, and lower skill for smallscale and intense events. In the paper, it is mentioned how some of the stringent assumptions on the domain over which the method can be applied, and the availability of the matched forecasts and observations, can limit its usability in an operational environment. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
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