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When scholars investigate the legacy of John Maynard Keynes’s Treatise on Probability (1921) for the development of Keynes’s thinking, the attention usually focuses on the connections among Keynes’s probability theory, his conception of decision-making under uncertainty, and the theory of the functioning of the macroeconomic system that derives from it—through the marginal efficiency of capital, the preference for liquidity, and the self-referential functioning of financial markets. By contrast, this paper aims to investigate the connections between Keynes’s probability theory, on the one hand, and his economic policy recommendations, on the other. It concentrates on the policy recommendations defended by Keynes during the Great Depression but also after the General Theory. Keynes’s economic policy can be understood as a framework for decision-making in situations of uncertainty: fiscal policy aims to induce private agents to change their “rational” probability statements, while monetary policy aims to allow more weight to these statements.

The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 was the unconventional monetary policy of its time. It suspended the convertibility of the Bank of England's notes into gold, a policy that lasted until 1821. The current historical consensus is that it was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetization, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves following a landing of French troops in Wales. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the suspension, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data that leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of prudential collaboration between the Bank and the Treasury.

The Dutch pension system is generally looked upon with admiration. It scores higher marks for level of participation, level of pension income and sustainability than retirement provisions of most other countries. The Dutch state retirement pension is funded as a pay-as-you-go scheme, second-pillar pensions are collectively funded and third-pillar annuities have a fully funded basis too. The Dutch retirement reserve equals more than 100 per cent of the country's GDP and 90 per cent of the workforce is entitled to a corporate pension. The Dutch practice of a 50/50 split between pay-as-you-go and funded schemes gives a robust and balanced outcome for beneficiaries. The ‘EET’-system, that is, where pension contributions are exempt, accruals to the pension fund are exempt and actual pension income is taxed at the moment of payout, ensures that the tax revenue collected keeps pace with the ageing of the beneficiaries. Nevertheless, the Dutch system also has come under pressure where the Netherlands has to take measures like any other country. And this pressure, partly caused by the ageing population combined with the current and foreseeable economic conditions, painfully shows some of the shortcomings of the Dutch system. Does the Netherlands actually still have the world's best pension system? Maybe the Netherlands used to have sufficiently funded and well-organized pension schemes up until now, but this seems to be rapidly changing. This article intends to provide inspiring examples of dos and donts, which will give more insight in the Dutch system and could be useful for pension practitioners and policymakers in other countries.

Tax revenues are forecast to increase from 23.5% of GDP in 2015-16 to 25.1% of GDP by 2019-20. Expenditures are expected to fall from 25.8% to 25.2% of GDP over the same period. Over the four year period the government's nominal tax receipts are forecast to increase by 30%. Tax receipts will amount to $500 billion by 2019-20. Whilst much of the increase is predicated on growth new tax measures will also need to contribute, and in a big way. The government plans to collect an additional $28 billion each year!

GST also known as the Goods and Services Tax is defined as the giant indirect tax structure designed to support and enhance the economic growth of a country. More than 150 countries have implemented GST so far. However, the idea of GST in India was mooted by Vajpayee government in 2000 and the constitutional amendment for the same was passed by the Loksabha on 6th May 2015 but is yet to be ratified by the Rajyasabha. However, there is a huge hue and cry against its implementation. It would be interesting to understand why this proposed GST regime may hamper the growth and development of the country.

Senegal is a typical sub-Saharan economy, which conducted an import substitution policy over 1960-86, followed by a policy of support for the private sector and liberalization of the economy. It suffers from a low level of economic development, hindering the process of economic diversification, and translating into an over-concentration of its exports and production. Through a careful analysis of the main advantages and drawbacks of the Senegalese economy, this scoping paper emphasizes the key obstacles to unleashing prosperity in the country: electricity supply and quality, and the educational system.

The financial crisis that struck the world economy in 2008 affected not only the financial sector in many countries around the world, but also the real sector. One important aspect of the financial crisis was that it has lead to unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal support, resulting in hundreds of billions of Dollars and Euros to rescue some of the biggest financial institutions of the world, and to support economic activity. This large size government intervention is surprising from the perspective of a quarter century of economic policy preceding the crisis, where deregulation was the main policy objective in most OECD-countries. Industries that had been considered natural monopolies in the past, thus requiring either direct or indirect government ownership and/or strict regulation, were privatized and deregulated. The underlying argument was that free and unfettered markets were best-equipped to ensure an efficient allocation of resources and to achieve sustainable economic growth and higher living standards for the vast majority of people. Privatization and deregulation were subsequently not confined to natural monopolies like telecommunication, railways, etc. but also changed the structure of the financial sector. In addition, in many countries including Austria, there was a substantial shift in the pension system from the government to private funds thereby feeding enormous amounts of money into the financial system. Given the apparent tension between the policy objective of privatization and deregulation on one hand, and the size of government intervention over the last 2 years on the other hand, it was a natural decision, to deal at least with some aspects of the crisis at the Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association in May 2010. In particular, we decided to focus on the consequences of the crisis for competition policy in Austria and in the EU. Before the financial crisis, competition policy could be seen to some extent to have replaced state ownership in Europe and regulation in the USA. After many years of policy geared towards privatization and

This article explores the determinants of price level fluctuations in Britain during the first suspension of the gold standard over the 1797-1821 period. I find that the contemporary price level was determined by world gold prices and expectations regarding the resumption of the gold standard at the pre-war parity. As the latter hinged on market participants’ expectations concerning the financial burden of the Napoleonic Wars, my contribution establishes the importance of fiscal factors for the determination of the price level.

The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy held its second conference on November 14 and 15, 2003. The organization is sponsored by the European Central Bank, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Center for German and European Studies, and the Center for Financial Studies. It was formed to encourage research on monetary policy issues that are relevant from a global perspective, and it organizes conferences that are held alternately in the euro area and the United States. ; The 2003 conference, held in Washington, D.C., featured ten papers. Among the topics examined were the Great Inflation of the 1970s in the United States and the influence of learning, or adjustment of expectations, on policy outcomes; the tradeoffs between rules-based and discretionary monetary policy; the 1999 formation of the European Economic and Monetary Union and whether it altered the degree of economic integration between the United States and the euro area; the potential benefits of greater competition in the euro area; and optimal monetary policy in an international setting.

The Manufacturing Green Paper calls for greater consultation, participatory decision making at all levels in the community and increased government intervention in the economy. A “deepseated and long-standing malaise” in the manufacturing sector is seen. Lower tariffs, more use of direct subsidies, and the formation of industry councils are recommended. The reviewer argues the Green Paper does not give enough attention to an economic analysis of key issues and that it neglects the implications of the interrelatedness between manufacturing and other sectors of the economy.