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In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve how extreme events and climate variations are managed, there is a need to foster a deeper understanding of their interconnections. Consistent with this objective, this paper describes how precipitation extremes change both temporally and spatially in the Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP), China and explains their causal factors. The paper refers to data collected from 43 meteorological stations in IMP and describes how precipitation extremes formed and how they influence agriculture. Data gathered and presented in this paper may be useful in understanding the extent to which the IMP is being influenced by global environmental change. This study reveals that the eleven precipitation extremes indices, except the number of precipitation days with over 0.5 mm (R0.5), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), and total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), decreased in the IMP between 1959 and 2014, and most of them were non-significant in temporal. But the dry index has a larger magnitude decreasing trend than that of the wet indices, which can indicate that the dry situation was alleviated in IMP during the study interval. This study also indicated that precipitation extremes have strong relationships with elevation, latitude, and longitude. Atmospheric circulation and topography may be further primary reasons which result in the spatial variation characteristics in precipitation extremes over the IMP. Decreases in precipitation extremes, together with human activities such as livestock improvement and ecological restoration programs, has a positive effect in gross output value of agriculture and animal husbandry in the IMP. The results contribute to a deeper insight on the possible impacts of precipitation extremes and support the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with climate extremes. This paper further proposes science-based policies for grassland protection, agriculture, and animal husbandry on the national or regional and herdsman scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]