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Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the so-called water tower of Asia, plays an important role in the water cycle. However, few studies have linked the TP's water vapor supply with the climate over North China. In this study, we found that changes in the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) dynamically induce drought in North China, and the TP plays an important role in this relationship. During July–August for the period of 1981–2019, the SWJ center between 75° and 105°E obviously shifted northward at a rate of 0.04° per year. Correspondingly, the zonal winds in the southern subtropics were incredibly weakened, causing the outflow of water vapor from the TP to decrease dramatically. Combined with numerical simulations, we discovered that a reduction in water vapor transport from the TP can obviously decrease the precipitation over North China. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that if the water vapor outflow from the eastern border of the TP decreases by 52.74%, the precipitation in North China will decrease by 12.69% due to a decrease in the local cloud fraction caused by a diminished water vapor content in the atmosphere. Therefore, although less water vapor transport occurs in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere, the impact of transport from the TP in the former on the downstream precipitation cannot be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May–October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, the probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up to an approximately exponential cutoff scale sL where probability drops much faster. Hence sL can be used as an indicator of high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme precipitation accumulations). Overall, the climatology of sL over continental China is about 54 mm. In terms of cutoff changes, the current warming stage (1980–2015) is divided into two periods, 1980–97 and 1998–2015. We find that the cutoff in 1998–2015 increases about 5.6% compared with that of 1980–97, with an average station increase of 4.7%. Regionally, sL increases are observed over East China (10.9% ± 1.5%), Northwest China (9.7% ± 2.5%), South China (9.4% ± 1.4%), southern Southwest China (5.6% ± 1.2%), and Central China (5.3% ± 1.0%), with decreases over North China (−10.3% ± 1.3%), Northeast China (−4.9% ± 1.5%), and northern Southwest China (−3.9% ± 1.8%). The conditional risk ratios for five subregions with increased cutoff sL are all greater than 1.0, indicating an increased risk of large precipitation accumulations in the most recent period. For high precipitation accumulations larger than the 99th percentile of accumulation s99, the risk of extreme precipitation over these regions can increase above 20% except for South China. These increases of extreme accumulations can be largely explained by the extended duration of extreme accumulation events, especially for "extremely extreme" precipitation greater than s99. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global water cycle and energy balance and frequently generate high-impact weather events. The majority of existing literature studying MCS activity over East Asia is based on specific case studies and more climatological investigations revealing the precipitation characteristics of MCSs over eastern China are keenly needed. In this study, we use an iterative rain cell tracking method to identify and track MCS precipitation during 2008-16 to investigate regional differences and seasonal variations of MCS precipitation characteristics. Our results show that the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (YRB-ML) receive the largest amount and exhibit the most pronounced seasonal cycle of MCS precipitation in eastern China. MCS precipitation over YRB-ML can exceed 2.6mmday-1 in June, contributing over 30.0% of April-July total rainfall. Particularly long-lived MCSs occur over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), with 25% of MCSs over the ETP persisting for more than 18 h in spring. In addition, spring MCSs feature larger rainfall areas, longer durations, and faster propagation speeds. Summer MCSs have a higher precipitation intensity and a more pronounced diurnal cycle except for southeastern China, where MCSs have similar precipitation intensity in spring and summer. There is less MCS precipitation in autumn, but an MCSprecipitation center over the ETP still persists. MCSs reach peak hourly rainfall intensities during the time of maximum growth (a few hours after genesis), reach their maximum size around 5 h after genesis, and start decaying thereafter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of gridded high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs) is important in areas with complex topography, because rain gauges that are unevenly and sparsely distributed over an area cannot effectively reflect the spatial variabilities of the precipitation and related extremes in detail. In this study, the applicability of six satellite-based precipitation products (TMPA 3B42V7, IMERG, GSMaP-Gauge, CMORPH-CRT, PERSIANN-CDR, and GPCP) and five gauge-based precipitation products (APHRODITE, CN05.1, GPCC-D, GPCC-M, and CRU) over southwest China from 1998 to 2016 is evaluated by performing a comparison with meteorological station observations. The results show that GPCC-M exhibits the best performances for annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, which is supported by the lowest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for annual and seasonal precipitation and the lowest normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) for monthly precipitation. According to the NRMSE and critical success index (CSI), CN05.1 outperforms the other HRPPs at detecting daily precipitation; however, CN05.1 tends to overestimate the frequencies of light precipitation and underestimate the frequencies of heavy precipitation, which is reflected by the probability density function (PDF) for daily precipitation. The bias ratio (BIAS) and extreme precipitation indices show that IMERG shows numerous advantages over the other HRPPs in detecting extreme precipitation and estimating the precipitation intensity. Such results are helpful for future research on precipitation/extremes and related hydrometeorological disasters that occur throughout southwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear regression model is constructed to predict the April–May precipitation in central China (PCC) with a lead time of 1–2 months. This model not only reproduces the historical April–May PCC from 1985 to 2006 but also demonstrates strong robustness and reliability during the independent test period of 2007–16. Two preceding factors are selected to build the model, the February–March Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (IOSST), indicating a synergistic impact of Arctic and tropical signals on the midlatitude climate. A possible mechanism of ASO changes affecting Chinese precipitation is that the stratospheric circulation anomalies related to ASO changes may downward influence circulation over North Pacific, and then extend westward to influence East Asia, leading to changes in Chinese precipitation. Anomalies of the other predictor, IOSST, are associated with a baroclinic structure over central China. For example, warm IOSST causes anomalous convection over central China and affects the warm and humid airstream flowing from the Pacific to China. These processes related to the two predictors result in the April–May PCC anomalies. Sensitivity experiments and a transient experiment covering a longer period than the observations/reanalysis support the results from our statistical analysis based on observations. It implies that this statistical model could be applied to the output of seasonal forecasts from observations and improve the forecasting ability of April–May PCC in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we investigate the response of boreal spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC) to central Pacific (CP) El Niño based on observational datasets. While there is enhanced precipitation over southern China during the decaying boreal spring of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, so far no clear precipitation response has been detected during the same decaying stage for CP El Niño composites. Here we show that around half of the CP El Niño events coincide with enhanced SPSC (wet CP El Niño), while the other half are accompanied by reduced SPSC (dry CP El Niño). These two types of CP El Niño events bear dramatically different evolution features in their respective tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns. Wet CP El Niño events are characterized by an SSTA longitudinal position confined to the tropical central-eastern Pacific. In contrast, dry CP El Niño events exhibit a clear westward propagation of SSTAs during their evolution, with maximum SSTAs located to the west of the date line after their mature phase. These different longitudinal positions of positive SSTAs during their decaying phase result in distinct meridional structures of the tropical Pacific convection anomalies as well as the ENSO combination mode (C-mode) response. An anomalous low-level anticyclone is evident over the western North Pacific during wet CP El Niño events during their decaying phase, while an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found for dry CP El Niño events. We emphasize that the impacts of CP El Niño on the SPSC depend crucially on the simultaneous zonal location of warm SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model, HadRM3P, is used to dynamically downscale the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2c (20CRv2c), to generate a fine-resolution reconstruction of China's climate from 1851 to 2010. The downscaled dataset has a small warm and seasonal wet bias (1.4°C; 0.9 mm day−1) relative to recent observations but otherwise represents spatial and temporal trends realistically. Analysis focused on temperature and precipitation shows that downscaling 20CRv2c is found to improve its representation of China's climatological annual cycle, particularly over areas with sparse observational coverage such as the Tibetan Plateau. The downscaled dataset better represents the interannual variability and trends in observed temperature since 1901 and suggests that China has experienced a significant and sustained increase in temperature of 0.05°C (10 yr)−1 since the 1850s. Chinese precipitation trends have not changed significantly in the recent past or over the past 160 years. This analysis serves as an initial yet imperative step toward improving in-depth understanding of the characteristics and multidecadal drivers of high-impact events over China such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mei-yu onset over the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) varies considerably from early June to mid-July, which leads to large interannual changes in rainy-season length, total summer rainfall, and flooding potential. Previous studies have investigated the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the mei-yu onset. This study shows that a strong (weak) East Asian and western North Pacific (EAWNP) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in spring leads to an early (late) onset of the mei-yu over the MLYRV, and this ISO–mei-yu relationship is attributed to different types of ENSO in the preceding winter. A strong EAWNP ISO in spring is related to an eastern Pacific El Niño (EP El Niño) in the previous winter, and negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea (SCS) in May, which can cause an early onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon that also favors an early mei-yu onset. In contrast, a weak EAWNP ISO in spring is associated with a central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) before April, but with an EP El Niño after April, and positive SST anomalies in both the eastern Indian Ocean and the SCS in May. A statistical forecast model combining the intensity of spring EAWNP ISO, CP ENSO, and EP ENSO indices shows a high prediction skill of the observed mei-yu onset date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics and mechanisms of diurnal rainfall and winds near the south coast of China are explored using satellite data (CMORPH), long-term hourly WRF Model data (Du model data), a simple 2D linear model, and 2D idealized simulations. Both the CMORPH and Du model data indicate that the diurnal cycle of rainfall has two propagation modes near the coast: onshore and offshore. The diurnally periodic winds (vertical motions) also show a similar propagation feature. Analysis of the rainfall budget indicates that vertically integrated vertical vapor advection plays a key role in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and thus provides a physical connection between winds and rainfall in the diurnal cycle. It was found that a simple 2D linear land–sea breeze model with a background wind can well capture the two propagation modes, which are associated with inertia–gravity waves, in terms of speed and phase. The background wind changes the pattern of the inertia–gravity waves and further affects the diurnal propagation. The effect of the background wind on the diurnal propagation was verified through idealized simulations using a simplified version of the WRF Model that can also capture the diurnal features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A northwest-southeast-oriented summer monsoon trough exists between northern Indochina and northwestern Borneo. Ahead of this the South China Sea (SCS) trough is located at a convergent center west of the Philippines, which provides an environment favorable for rain-producing synoptic systems to produce rainfall over this center and form the SCS summer rainfall center. Revealed from the x- t diagram for rainfall, this rainfall center is developed by multiple-scale processes involved with the SCS trough (TR), tropical depression (TY), interaction of the SCS trough with the easterly wave/tropical depression (EI), and easterly wave (EW). It is found that 56% of this rainfall center is produced by the SCS trough, while 41% is generated by the other three synoptic systems combined. Apparently, the formation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center is contributed to by these four rain-producing synoptic systems from the SCS and the Philippines Sea. The Southeast Asian summer monsoon undergoes an interannual variation and exhibits an east-west-oriented cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalous circulation centered at the western tropical Pacific east of the Luzon Strait. This circulation change is reflected by the deepening (filling) of the SCS summer monsoon trough, when the monsoon westerlies south of 15°N intensify (weaken). This interannual variation of the monsoon westerlies leads to the interannual variation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center to follow the Pacific-Japan oscillation of rainfall. The rainfall amount produced over this rainfall center during the weak monsoon season is about two-thirds of that produced during the strong monsoon season. The rain-production ratio between TR and TY + EI + EW is 60:38 during the strong monsoon season and 47:49 during the weak monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential predictability of seasonal extreme precipitation accumulation (SEPA) across mainland China is evaluated, based on daily precipitation observations during 1960-2013 at 675 stations. The potential predictability value (PPV) of SEPA is calculated for each station by decomposing the observed SEPA variance into a part associated with stochastic daily rainfall variability and another part associated with longer-time-scale climate processes. A Markov chain model is constructed for each station and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to estimate the stochastic part of the variance. The results suggest that there are more potentially predictable regions for summer than for the other seasons, especially over southern China, the Yangtze River valley, the north China plain, and northwestern China. There are also regions of large PPVs in southern China for autumn and winter and in northwestern China for spring. The SEPA series for the regions of large PPVs are deemed not entirely stochastic, either with long-term trends (e.g., increasing trends in inland northwestern China) or significant correlation with well-known large-scale climate processes (e.g., East Asian winter monsoon for southern China in winter and El Niño for the Yangtze River valley in summer). This fact not only verifies the claim that the regions have potential predictability but also facilitates predictive studies of the regional extreme precipitation associated with large-scale climate processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual and seasonal trends of precipitable water (PW) and relative humidity (RH) at 850, 700, and 500 hPa are studied using the data from 106 radiosonde stations over China during the period 1979-2005. Analysis shows evidence of an increase in PW associated with the slight warming observed in the lower to midtroposphere over China. The northern part of China shows a significant upward trend of PW in summer, and drying of the atmosphere in winter is found in most regions over China. Annual and seasonal trends in RH at the 850-, 700-, and 500-hPa levels show no significant trends in most regions in China except for Xinjiang, which shows an upward trend, and central China, where there was a downward trend in RH at 500 hPa. It is found that changes in PW are coincident with the warming of the surface and the lower to midtroposphere. The RH in the lower to midtroposphere in most regions over China has remained steady during the most recent 30 years, as might be expected given the increasing of PW and the warming above the surface. The long-term trend of precipitation over China may be linked to the trends of PW and RH at the lower level and midlevel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many works suggest that the intensity of extreme precipitation might be changing under the background of global warming. Because of the importance of extreme precipitation in the Yellow--Huaihe and Yangtze--Huaihe River basins of China and to compare the spatial difference, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) function is used to fit the daily precipitation series in these basins and an estimate of the extreme precipitation spatial distribution is presented. At the same time, its long-term trends are estimated for the period between 1951 and 2004 by using a generalized linear model (GLM), which is based on GPD. High quality daily precipitation data from 215 observation stations over the area are used in this study. The statistical significance of the trend fields is tested with a Monte Carlo experiment based on a two-dimensional Hurst coefficient, H2. The spatial distribution of the shape parameter of GPD indicates that the upper reaches of the Huaihe River (HuR) basin have the largest probability of extreme rainfall events, which is consistent with most historical flood records in this region. Spatial variations in extreme precipitation trends are found and show significant positive trends in the upper reaches of Poyang Lake in the Yangtze River (YaR) basin and a significant negative trend in the mid- to lower reaches of the Yellow River (YeR) and Haihe River (HaR) basins. The trends in the HuR basin and the lower reaches of Poyang Lake in the YaR basin are nearly neutral. All trend fields are significant at the 5%% level of significance from the Monte Carlo experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have been conducted on the impact of soil moisture on the climate, but few studies have attempted to diagnose the linkage between soil moisture and climate variability using observational data. Here, using both observed and reanalysis data, the spring (April--May) soil moisture is found to have a significant impact on the summer (June--August) monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in east China by changing surface thermal conditions. In particular, the spring soil moisture over a vast region from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley to north China (the YRNC region) is significantly correlated to the summer precipitation in east China. When the YRNC region has a wetter soil in spring, northeast China and the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley would have abnormally higher precipitation in summer, while the region south of the Yangtze River valley would have abnormally lower precipitation. An analysis of the physical processes linking the spring soil moisture to the summer precipitation indicates that the soil moisture anomaly across the YRNC region has a major impact on the surface energy balance. Abnormally wet soil would increase surface evaporation and hence decrease surface air temperature ( Ta). The reduced Ta in late spring would narrow the land--sea temperature difference, resulting in the weakened East Asian monsoon in an abnormally strengthened western Pacific subtropical high that is also located farther south than its normal position. This would then enhance precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. Conversely, the abnormally weakened East Asian summer monsoon allows the western Pacific subtropical high to wander to south of the Yangtze River Valley, resulting in an abnormally reduced precipitation in the southern part of the country in east China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation trends in the Zhujiang River basin, South China, are analyzed. Nonparametric trend tests are applied to daily precipitation data from 192 weather stations between 1961 and 2007 for the following indices: annual, monthly, and daily precipitation; annual and monthly number of rain days and precipitation intensity; annual and monthly maximum precipitation; 5-day maximum precipitation, number of rainstorms with >50 mm day−−1, and peaks over thresholds (90th, 95th, and 99th percentile). The results show that few stations experienced trends in the precipitation indices on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, significant positive and negative trends above the 90%% confidence level appear in all months except December. Trends in the indices of monthly precipitation, rain intensity, rain days, and monthly maximum precipitation show very similar characteristics. They experience the most distinct negative (positive) trends in October (January). A change of the mean wind direction by 50°° from east-southeast to east-northeast explains the downward trend in precipitation in October. Dry October months (months with low precipitation indices) can be observed when the mean wind direction is east-northeast (arid) instead of the prevailing mean wind direction, east-southeast (moist). The former is typical for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Nearly 90%% of the driest October months can be explained by wind directions typical for the EAWM. The upward trend in precipitation indices in January cannot be explained by changes in large-scale circulation. The analysis of the precipitation indices delivers more detailed information on observed changes than other studies in the same area. This can be attributed to the higher station density, the quality of daily data, and the focus on monthly trends in the current study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using hourly station rain gauge data during 1966–2005, the authors studied changes in the characteristics of the late-summer (July–August) rainfall, which has exhibited a so-called southern flooding and northern drought (SFND) pattern over eastern China in recent decades. Although the rainfall amount and frequency have significantly increased (decreased) in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (North China) during this period, the rainfall intensity has decreased (increased). This finding differs from previous results based on daily data, which showed that the rainfall intensity has increased in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. In this region, the mean rainfall hours on rainy days have increased because of the prolonged rainfall duration, which has led to an increased daily rainfall amount and to a decreased hourly rainfall intensity. Results also show that the SFND pattern is mostly attributed to changes in precipitation with moderate and low intensity (≤10 mm h−1), which contributes 65% (96%) of rainfall amount to the “flooding” (“drought”) in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. Neither frequency nor amount of strong intensity (>20 mm h−1) rainfall exhibits the SFND pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]