Search

The response of plants to climate change has become a topical issue. However, there is no consensus on the synergistic processes of the canopy and trunk growth within different vegetation types, or on the consistency of the response of the canopy and trunk to climate change. This paper is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), tree-ring width index (TRW) and climate data from the Irtysh River basin, a sensitive area for climate change in Central Asia. Spatial statistical methods and correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of plants and climate, and to reveal the differences in the canopy and trunk response mechanisms to climate within different vegetation types. The results show a warming and humidifying trend between 1982 and 2015 in the study area, and NDVI and TRW increases in different vegetation type zones. On an interannual scale, temperature is the main driver of the canopy growth in alpine areas and precipitation is the main limiting factor for the canopy growth in lower altitude valley and desert areas. The degree of response of the trunk to climatic factors decreases with increasing altitude, and TRW is significantly correlated with mean annual temperature, precipitation and SPEI in desert areas. On a monthly scale, the earlier and longer growing season due to the accumulation of temperature and precipitation in the early spring and late autumn periods contributes to two highly significant trends of increase in the canopy from March to May and August to October. Climatic conditions during the growing season are the main limiting factor for the growth of the trunk, but there is considerable variation in the driving of the trunk in different vegetation type zones. The canopy growth is mainly influenced by climatic factors in the current month, while there is a 1–2-month lag effect in the response of the trunk to climatic factors. In addition, the synergy between the canopy and the trunk is gradually weakened with increasing altitude (correlation coefficient is 0.371 in alpine areas, 0.413 in valley areas and 0.583 in desert areas). These findings help to enrich the understanding of the response mechanisms to climate change in different vegetation type zones and provide a scientific basis for the development of climate change response measures in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are well established throughout the world. By now many local, regional, and central authorities are aware of these impacts and they try to take necessary precautions according to their environmental circumstances. Preliminary decisions cannot be taken unless there is a model for future climate change impacts, especially for rainfall occurrence, amount, and frequency estimations. The main purpose is to combine the general circulation (climate) model (GCM) outputs with the local meteorology station records by a suitable downscaling procedure. In this paper, a statistical quadrangle downscaling model (QDM) is developed for rainfall estimations up to 2100. This model helps to downscale the nearby four scenario rainfall amounts at GCM grids to a desired point. Two main steps in the model structure are the use of a regional dependence function (RDF) for transferring the GCM output data from the four nearest grid points to the location. The second step is to adjust the downscaled scenario monthly rainfalls with the local rainfall records. The GCM monthly rainfall outputs are downloaded from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with special report emission scenario A2. The application of the methodology is presented for Riyadh City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The RDF is obtained from the most reliable meteorology records at 27 locations that are irregularly scattered all over the country. Then it is used for scenario data transfer from the regular grid points. The adjustment is based on the average statistical properties of concurrent monthly rainfall amounts between 1985 and 1996. The trend component in the GCM remains intact. It has been observed that there is a major increasing trend in the monthly rainfalls after 2050. In the meantime, each decade starting from 2011 gives estimates that indicate steady rainfall increases up to 2050. The QDM indicates a 40% increase in the annual total rainfall amounts, with a 15% standard deviation increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is a drought-prone region that is sensitive to global climate change. The increased actual evapotranspiration intensifies the drought impacts in this area. However, little is known about the similarities and differences between various types of drought in Central Asia, as well as the relative importance of water income and consumption processes during drought events. Therefore, this study evaluates the trends and characteristics of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Central Asia using precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage as indicators; explores the temporal correlation of and spatial similarity between various types of drought; and quantitatively assesses the contribution of water balance variables to drought intensity. The results indicate that drought has intensified in Central Asia, and the trends of precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage in this region were −0.75 mm·yr−1 (p = 0.36), −0.0003 m3·m−3 yr−1 (p < 0.01), and −0.3742 cm·yr−1 (p < 0.001), respectively. Severe droughts are typically short in duration and high in intensity. Three various types of drought have low temporal correlation and spatial similarity. Furthermore, agricultural and hydrological droughts were primarily driven by actual evapotranspiration, accounting for relative contributions of 64.38% and 51.04% to these drought types, respectively. Moreover, the extent of increased actual evapotranspiration expanded to cover 49.88% of the region, exacerbating agricultural and hydrological droughts in 23.88% and 35.14% of the total study area, respectively. The study findings demonstrate that actual evapotranspiration plays a critical role in causing droughts. This study establishes a theoretical foundation to carry out drought assessment, the construction of multivariate drought indices, and water resource management in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past 30 years, Northwest China has experienced a warm and humid climate increase trend. How this climate change will affect the species diversity of plant communities is a hot issue in ecological research. In this study, four α diversity indexes were applied in 29 shrub communities at desert sites in Xinjiang, including the Margalef index, Simpson index, Shannon–Wiener index, and Pielou index, to explore the relationship between the α diversity of the desert shrub communities and climate factors (mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP)). The species diversity indexes varied across these different desert shrub communities. Tamarix ramosissima communities had the highest Margalef index, while the Krascheninnikovia ewersmannia communities had the lowest Margalef index; T. ramosissima communities also showed the highest Simpson index and Shannon–Wiener index, but Alhagi sparsifolia communities showed the lowest Simpson index and Shannon–Wiener index. The Ephedra przewalskii communities and Karelinia caspica communities showed the highest and the lowest Pielou index, respectively. The α diversity indexes (except the Pielou index) of desert shrub communities had a significantly positive correlation with MAP (p < 0.05) but a non-significantly correlation with MAT (p > 0.05). These results indicate that, compared with temperature, water conditions are still a more vital climatic factor affecting the species diversity of desert shrub communities in Xinjiang, and thus, the recent "warm and humid" climate trend in Xinjiang affects the α diversity of desert shrub communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Grassland degradation is the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. • The carbon storage of farmland has increased significantly. • The risk of carbon storage reduction in the future is still high. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The negative impacts of climate change on mammals have been largely based on assessments of total species' assemblages or individual species at broad scales. Here, we evaluate how the predicted magnitude and velocity of climate change in the arid region of southwest Asia might affect regional functional groups of terrestrial mammals. Location: Iran. Methods: We gathered data from 186 species to map diversity hotspots of 12 functional groups, threatened species richness and total species richness. We mapped areas with high risk of exposure to extreme drying and warming events and calculated the velocity of climate change by using precipitation and temperature data from current and future periods. We then quantified the exposure of these hotspots to extreme changes in magnitude and velocity. Results: Hotspots of functional groups, threatened species and species richness were most exposed to precipitation decline in current and future scenarios (average of 17.9% and 29.9% respectively), compared to temperature rise. While most hotspots are found in mountains, hotspots located in lowlands were more exposed to extreme drying, particularly for carnivore, desert and large‐bodied functional groups, as well as threatened species. These patterns remained intact when we considered only hotspots covered by existing protected areas. The impacts of velocity also varied significantly among functional groups, with highest levels for carnivore, large‐bodied and specialist groups and threatened species. Main conclusions: We show that climate change does not equally impact all species within a community and that vulnerability to these changes differed between functional groups. We found that the areas with the highest risk of exposure to extreme climates are located in lowlands and not in mountains. We found that extreme drying, rather than warming, is the major threat to regional mammal diversity in this arid region, particularly for large‐bodied and threatened species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of plants to climate change has become a topical issue. However, there is no consensus on the synergistic processes of the canopy and trunk growth within different vegetation types, or on the consistency of the response of the canopy and trunk to climate change. This paper is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), tree-ring width index (TRW) and climate data from the Irtysh River basin, a sensitive area for climate change in Central Asia. Spatial statistical methods and correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of plants and climate, and to reveal the differences in the canopy and trunk response mechanisms to climate within different vegetation types. The results show a warming and humidifying trend between 1982 and 2015 in the study area, and NDVI and TRW increases in different vegetation type zones. On an interannual scale, temperature is the main driver of the canopy growth in alpine areas and precipitation is the main limiting factor for the canopy growth in lower altitude valley and desert areas. The degree of response of the trunk to climatic factors decreases with increasing altitude, and TRW is significantly correlated with mean annual temperature, precipitation and SPEI in desert areas. On a monthly scale, the earlier and longer growing season due to the accumulation of temperature and precipitation in the early spring and late autumn periods contributes to two highly significant trends of increase in the canopy from March to May and August to October. Climatic conditions during the growing season are the main limiting factor for the growth of the trunk, but there is considerable variation in the driving of the trunk in different vegetation type zones. The canopy growth is mainly influenced by climatic factors in the current month, while there is a 1–2-month lag effect in the response of the trunk to climatic factors. In addition, the synergy between the canopy and the trunk is gradually weakened with increasing altitude (correlation coefficient is 0.371 in alpine areas, 0.413 in valley areas and 0.583 in desert areas). These findings help to enrich the understanding of the response mechanisms to climate change in different vegetation type zones and provide a scientific basis for the development of climate change response measures in Central Asia.

Abstract: The meteorological data such as rainfall and temperatures, covering the period between 1979 and 2008, has been analyzed. The data were simulated using the geographic information systems (GIS) and computer software “MATLAB”. The output results were converted into geographical maps. Three parameters were analyzed: annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature, and mean annual rainfall during the period (1979–2008). The analyzed results were also used to forecast for the period (2009–2018). The results show that no change has occurred in the mean annual rainfall in both northern and eastern part, while it has increased in the central region of Jordan. Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, but over the past 50 years, the mean local temperature in Jordan has increased rapidly since 1992 by 1.5–2°C. It is noticed from the data that the change in both maximum and minimum temperatures has clearly begun after 1991, in which this phenomenon may give an indication of changing point in climate of Jordan. As for prediction is concern, the show continuous increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern, northern and southern regions of Jordan. The application of GIS in this study was successfully used to analyze the data and to produce ‘easy to use’ maps to understand the impact of global warming. This application is the first in terms of its applicability in Jordan. The authors believe that the results of this study will be of great help to the decision makers in the field of environment in Jordan. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Inland lakes are major surface water resource in arid regions of Central Asia. The area changes in these lakes have been proved to be the results of regional climate changes and recent human activities. This study aimed at investigating the area variations of the nine major lakes in Central Asia over the last 30 years. Firstly, multi-temporal Landsat imagery in 1975, 1990, 1999, and 2007 were used to delineate lake extents automatically based on Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) threshold segmentation, then lake area variations were detailed in three decades and the mechanism of these changes was analyzed with meteorological data and hydrological data. The results indicated that the total surface areas of these nine lakes had decreased from 91,402.06 km to 46,049.23 km during 1975-2007, accounting for 49.62% of their original area of 1975. Tail-end lakes in flat areas had shrunk dramatically as they were induced by both climate changes and human impacts, while alpine lakes remained relatively stable due to the small precipitation variations. With different water usage of river outlets, the variations of open lakes were more flexible than those of other two types. According to comprehensive analyses, different types of inland lakes presented different trends of area changes under the background of global warming effects in Central Asia, which showed that the increased human activities had broken the balance of water cycles in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid regions of the world occupy up to 35% of the earth's surface, the basis of various definitions of climatic conditions, vegetation types or potential for food production. Due to their high ecological value, monitoring of arid regions is necessary and modern vegetation studies can help in the conservation and management of these areas. The use of remote sensing for mapping of desert vegetation is difficult due to mixing of the spectral reflectance of bright desert soils with the weak spectral response of sparse vegetation. We studied the vegetation types in the semiarid to arid region of Mond Protected Area, south-west Iran, based on unsupervised classification of the Spot XS bands and then produced updated maps. Sixteen map units covering 12 vegetation types were recognized in the area based on both field works and satellite mapping. Halocnemum strobilaceum and Suaeda fruticosa vegetation types were the dominant types and Ephedra foliata, Salicornia europaea- Suaeda heterophylla vegetation types were the smallest. Vegetation coverage decreased sharply with the increase in salinity towards the coastal areas of the Persian Gulf. The highest vegetation coverage belonged to the riparian vegetation along the Mond River, which represents the northern boundary of the protected area. The location of vegetation types was studied on the separate soil and habitat diversity maps of the study area, which helped in final refinements of the vegetation map produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow contributes one of the main water sources to runoff in the arid region of China. A clear understanding of the spatiotemporal variation of snowfall is not only required for climate change assessment, but also plays a critical role in water resources management. However, in-situ observations or gridded datasets hardly meet the requirement and cannot provide precise spatiotemporal details on snowfall across the region. This study attempted to apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to clarify the spatiotemporal variation of snowfall and the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation over Xinjiang in China during the 1979–2015 period. The results showed that the snowfall increased in the southern edge of the Tarim Basin, the Ili Valley, and the Altay Mountains, but decreased in the Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains. The snowfall/precipitation (S/P) ratio revealed the opposite trends in low-elevation regions and mountains in the study area. The S/P ratio rose in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin, but declined in the Altay Mountains, the Tianshan Mountains, and the west edge of the Junggar Basin. The study area comprises two major rivers in the middle of the Tianshan Mountains. Both the runoff magnitude increase and earlier occurrence of snowmelt recharge in runoff identified for the 1980s were compared with the 2000s level in decreasing S/P ratio regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In arid areas, lakes play important roles in sustaining the local ecology, mitigating flood hazard, and restricting economic activity of society. In this study, we used multi-temporal satellite data to study annual variations in 16 natural lakes with individual surface areas over 10 km2, categorized into six regions based on their geographical and climatic information and on their relations with climate variables. Results indicated that annual variations in lake surface areas are different across these six regions. The surface area of Kanas Lake has not obviously changed due to its typical U-shape cross section; the areas of Ulungur Lake and Jili Lake increased sharply in the 1980s and then slightly decreased; the areas of Sayram Lake, Ebinur Lake, and Bosten Lake increased and then decreased, with peaks detected in the early 2000s; the areas of Barkol Lake and Toale Culler decreased, while those of the lakes located in the Kunlun Mountains steadily increased. Lake areas also show various relationships with climate variables. There is no obvious relationship between area and climate variables in Kanas Lake due to the specific lake morphology; the areas of most lakes showed positive correlations with annual precipitation (except Sayram Lake). A negative correlation between area and temperature were detected in Ulungur Lake, Jili Lake, Barkol Lake, and Toale Culler, while positive correlations were suggested in Bosten Lake and the lakes in the Kunlun Mountains (e.g., Saligil Kollakan Lake, Aksai Chin Lake, and Urukkule Lake). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]