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This paper scrutinizes the zonal oscillation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via diagnosing its two extreme phases, which are defined by the top 10% strongest (positive phase) and the weakest (negative phase) WNPSH index (WNPSHI) days during summers in 1979–2016. Key findings include the following: a tripole pattern consisting of intensified (weakened) precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon regions, and suppressed (strengthened) precipitation over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region during positive (negative) WNPSH phases; a westward movement of WNPSH-induced precipitation anomalies that subsequently affects eastern China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula at different time lags; an OLR–vorticity pattern explained by atmospheric responses to thermal sources is suggested to drive the oscillation; and the competitive interaction of local air–sea feedbacks, especially during the positive phase. In addition, moderate-to-strong positive correlations between the WNPSHI and the Niño-3.4 index are found on 1–2-, 2–3-, and 3–6-yr time scales; both exhibit decadal shifts to a higher-frequency mode, suggesting the intensification of both the zonal WNPSH oscillation and the ENSO under the changing climate and their close interdecadal association. A nonlinear quasi-biennial WNPSH–ENSO relationship is identified: the positive (negative) WNPSH phase sometimes occurs during 1) a decaying El Niño (La Niña) in the preceding summer/autumn, and/or 2) a developing La Niña (El Niño) in the current summer/autumn. A full ENSO transition from moderate-to-strong El Niño to La Niña is often seen during the positive phase, offering potential in predicting ENSO events and extreme WNPSH phases and thereby the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The probability of climate extremes is strongly affected by atmospheric circulation. This study quantifies the worldwide influence of three major modes of circulation on station-based indices of intense precipitation: the El Niño--Southern Oscillation, the Pacific interdecadal variability as characterized by the North Pacific index (NPI), and the North Atlantic Oscillation--Northern Annular Mode. The study examines which stations show a statistically significant (5%%) difference between the positive and negative phases of a circulation regime. Results show distinct regional patterns of response to all these modes of climate variability; however, precipitation extremes are most substantially affected by the El Niño--Southern Oscillation. The effects of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the world, including in India, Africa, South America, the Pacific Rim, North America, and, weakly, Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong, continent-wide effect on Eurasia and affects a small, but not negligible, percentage of stations across the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes. This percentage increases slightly if the Northern Annular Mode index is used rather than the NAO index. In that case, a region of increase in intense precipitation can also be found in Southeast Asia. The NPI influence on precipitation extremes is similar to the response to El Niño, and strongest in landmasses adjacent to the Pacific. Consistently, indices of more rare precipitation events show a weaker response to circulation than indices of moderate extremes; the results are quite similar, but of opposite sign, for negative anomalies of the circulation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is coupled to three different land surface schemes (LSSs), both individually and in combination (i.e., the LSSs receive the same AGCM forcing each time step and the averaged upward surface fluxes are passed back to the AGCM), to study the uncertainty of simulated climatologies and variabilities caused by different LSSs. This tiling of the LSSs is done to study the uncertainty of simulated mean climate and climate variability caused by variations between LSSs. The three LSSs produce significantly different surface fluxes over most of the land, no matter whether they are coupled individually or in combination. Although the three LSSs receive the same atmospheric forcing in the combined experiment, the inter-LSS spread of latent heat flux can be larger or smaller than the individually coupled experiment, depending mostly on the evaporation regime of the schemes in different regions. Differences in precipitation are the main reason for the different latent heat fluxes over semiarid regions, but for sensible heat flux, the atmospheric differences and LSS differences have comparable contributions. The influence of LSS uncertainties on the simulation of surface temperature is strongest in dry seasons, and its influence on daily maximum temperature is stronger than on minimum temperature. Land–atmosphere interaction can dampen the impact of LSS uncertainties on surface temperature in the tropics, but can strengthen their impact in middle to high latitudes. Variations in the persistence of surface heat fluxes exist among the LSSs, which, however, have little impact on the global pattern of precipitation persistence. The results provide guidance to future diagnosis of model uncertainties related to LSSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]