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The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary Earth system studies, project future Earth climate and environment changes, and conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model version NESM v1 simulates the internal modes of climate variability well, it has no vegetation dynamics and suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and surface, resulting in large biases in the global mean surface air temperature, which limits its utility to simulate past and project future climate changes. The NESM v3 has upgraded atmospheric and land surface model components and improved physical parameterization and conservation of coupling variables. Here we describe the new version's basic features and how the major improvements were made. We demonstrate the v3 model's fidelity and suitability to address global climate variability and change issues. The 500-year preindustrial (PI) experiment shows negligible trends in the net heat flux at the top of atmosphere and the Earth surface. Consistently, the simulated global mean surface air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are all in a quasi-equilibrium state. The conservation of global water is demonstrated by the stable evolution of the global mean precipitation, sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea water salinity. The sea ice extents (SIEs), as a major indication of highlatitude climate, also maintain a balanced state. The simulated spatial patterns of the energy states, SST, precipitation, and SSS fields are realistic, but the model suffers from a cold bias in the North Atlantic, a warm bias in the Southern Ocean, and associated deficient Antarctic sea ice area, as well as a delicate sign of the double ITCZ syndrome. The estimated radiative forcing of quadrupling carbon dioxide is about 7.24Wm-2, yielding a climate sensitivity feedback parameter of -0:98Wm-2 K-1, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.69 K. The transient climate response from the 1%yr-1 CO2 (1pctCO2) increase experiment is 2.16 K. The model's performance on internal modes and responses to external forcing during the historical period will be documented in an accompanying paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements of air temperature and precipitation at 35 stations in Hubei Province, China, during 1962-2011 are used to investigate the regional climate change. There is an increasing trend for observed air temperature (0.23°C decade−1), which is slightly higher than that from multiple model simulations/predictions [phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) datasets] (0.16°C decade−1). The observed precipitation increases at the rate of 11.4 mm decade−1, while the CMIP5 results indicate a much lower decreasing trend (0.8 mm decade−1) in this region. To examine the ecological responses to the climate changes in Hubei Province, annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) products during 2000-10 and leaf area index (LAI) products during 1981-2011 are also analyzed. It is discovered that GPP, NPP, and LAI increase at the rate of 1.8 TgC yr−1 yr−1, 1.1 TgC yr−1 yr−1, and 0.14 m2 m−2 decade−1, respectively. A linear model is further used to conduct the correlation analyses between climatic parameters (i.e., air temperature and precipitation) and ecological indicators (i.e., GPP, NPP, and LAI). The results indicate that the air temperature has a significant positive correlation with LAI ( R2 = 0.311) and GPP ( R2 = 0.189); precipitation is positively correlated with NPP ( R2 = 0.209). Thus, it is concluded that the air temperature exerts a stronger effect on the ecosystem than precipitation in Hubei Province over the past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projecting future changes of streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is important for the planning and management of the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). This paper presented an analysis of the implications of CMIP5 climate models on the future streamflow in the JRB, using SWAT model. Results show that: (1) In the JRB, a 10% precipitation decrease might result in a streamflow increase of 15 to 18% and a 1 °C increase in temperature might results in a 2 to 5% decrease in streamflow; (2) GFDL-ESM2M and NORESM1-M showed considerable skill in representing the observed precipitation and temperature, which can be chosen to analyze the changes in streamflow in the future; (3) The precipitation and temperature were projected to increase by 0.8 to 5.0% and 1.31 to 1.87 °C. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 4.1 to 14.3% in the upper JRB. It was excepted to change by −4.6 to 8.1% in the middle and lower JRB (MLJRB). The changes of low streamflow in the MLJRB were −5.8 to 7.4%. Therefore, the potential impact of climate on streamflow will have little effect on the planning and management of the west route of SNWTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gridded climatic datasets with fine spatial resolution can potentially be used to depict the climatic characteristics across the complex topography of China. In this study, we collected records of monthly temperature at 1153 stations and precipitation at 1202 stations in China and neighboring countries to construct a monthly climate dataset in China with a 0.025° resolution (~ 2.5 km). The dataset, named LZU0025, was designed by Lanzhou University and used a partial thin plate smoothing method embedded in the ANUSPLIN software. The accuracy of LZU0025 was evaluated based on three aspects: (1) Diagnostic statistics from the surface fitting model during 1951–2011. The results indicate a low mean square root of generalized cross validation (RTGCV) for the monthly air temperature surface (1.06 °C) and monthly precipitation surface (1.97 mm1/2). The method used variable square root transformation for the spline surface fitting to reduce positive skewness in the measured precipitation values and no variable transformation in air temperature case. This indicates that the surface fitting models are accurate. (2) Error statistics of comparisons between interpolated monthly LZU0025 with the withholding of climatic data from 265 stations during 1951–2011. The results show that the predicted values closely tracked the real true values with values of mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.59 °C and 70.5 mm and standard deviation of the mean error (STD) of 1.27 °C and 122.6 mm. In addition, the monthly STDs exhibited a consistent pattern of variation with RTGCV. (3) Comparison with other datasets. This was done in two ways. The first was via comparison of standard deviation, mean, and time trend derived from all datasets to a reference dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), using Taylor diagrams. The second was to compare LZU0025 with the station dataset in the Tibetan Plateau. Taylor diagrams show that the standard deviation derived from LZU had a higher correlation with that produced by the CMA (R = 0.76 for air temperature, and R = 0.96 for precipitation) compared to those from other datasets. The standard deviation for the index derived from LZU was more close to that induced from CMA, and the centered normalized root-mean-square difference for this index derived from LZU and CMA was lower. A similar superior performance of LZU was found in the comparison of mean and time trend derived from LZU and those from other datasets. LZU0025 had high correlation with the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observation Project (CEOP)—Asian Monsoon Project (CAMP) Tibet surface meteorology station dataset for air temperature, despite a non-significant correlation for precipitation at a few stations. Based on this comprehensive analysis, we conclude that LZU0025 is a reliable dataset. LZU0025, which has a fine resolution, can be used to identify a greater number of climate types, such as tundra and subpolar continental, along the Himalayan Mountain. We anticipate that LZU0025 can be used for the monitoring of regional climate change and precision agriculture modulation under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals the impacts of climatic variable trends on drought severity in Xinjiang, China. Four drought indices, including the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), Erinç's index ( I ), Sahin's index ( I ), and UNEP aridity index (AI), were used to compare drought severity. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test were applied to analyze the nonlinear components and trends of the climatic variable and drought indices. Four and six climatic scenarios were generated in sc-PDSI, I , I , and AI with different combinations of the observed and detrended climatic variables, respectively. In Xinjiang, generally increasing trends in minimal, average, and maximal air temperature ( T , T , T ) and precipitation ( P) were found, whereas a decreasing trend in wind speed at 2 m height ( U ) was observed. There were significantly increasing trends in all of the four studied drought indices. Drought relief was more obvious in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang. The strong influences of increased P on drought relief and the weak influences of increased T , T , and T on drought aggravation were shown by comparing four drought indices under different climate scenarios. Decreased U had a weak influence on drought, as shown by the AI in different climate scenarios. The weak influences of T and U were considered to be masked by the strong influences of P on droughts. Droughts were expected to be more severe if P did not increase, but were likely milder without an increase in air temperature and with a decrease in U . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warmer climate may lead to less precipitation falling as snow in cold seasons. Such a switch in the state of precipitation not only alters temporal distribution of intra-annual runoff but also tends to yield less total annual runoff. Long-term water balance for 282 catchments across China is investigated, showing that a decreasing snow ratio reduces annual runoff for a given total precipitation. Within the Budyko framework, we develop an equation to quantify the relationship between snow ratio and annual runoff from a water-energy balance viewpoint. Based on the proposed equation, attribution of runoff change during the past several decades and possible runoff change induced by projected snow ratio change using climate experiment outputs archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analyzed. Results indicate that annual runoff in northwestern mountainous and northern high-latitude areas are sensitive to snow ratio change. The proposed model is applicable to other catchments easily and quantitatively for analyzing the effects of possible change in snow ratio on available water resources and evaluating the vulnerability of catchments to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

dataset of air temperature and precipitation time series (1959-2008) from 61 stations across Shanxi, China is used to analyze the climate change. The monotonic trends and step (abrupt) trends for annual and seasonal series data of mean air temperature and total precipitation are tested by using Mann-Kendall test and Mann-Whitney test, respectively. The results show that annual mean air temperature has increased by 1.20°C during the past 50 years. Winter, spring, and autumn have experienced a significant increase in air temperature. The step trend for annual mean air temperature is different from, but closely related with, those for seasonal mean air temperature. Spatially, there is an enhanced warming trend from south to north in Shanxi, and the most remarkable warming occurs in northern Shanxi. Annual precipitation has decreased by 99.20 mm during the past half century. The decrease is mainly caused by precipitation decline in rainy season (June-September), though precipitation in post-rainy season (October-November) also tended to decrease. An abrupt decrease in precipitation has occurred since late 1970s. Decrease in precipitation is highest in central Shanxi and in the area along the west fringe between Sanchuan River and Fenhe River in western Shanxi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In analyzing daily climate data from 305 weather stations in China for the period from 1955 to 2000, the authors found that surface air temperatures are increasing with an accelerating trend after 1990. They also found that the daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature increased at a rate of 1.27° and 3.23°C (100 yr)-1 between 1955 and 2000. Both temperature trends were faster than those reported for the Northern Hemisphere, where Tmax and Tmin increased by 0.87° and 1.84°C (100 yr)-1 between 1950 and 1993. The daily temperature range (DTR) decreased rapidly by -2.5°C (100 yr)-1 from 1960 to 1990; during that time, minimum temperature increased while maximum temperature decreased slightly. Since 1990, the decline in DTR has halted because Tmax and Tmin increased at a similar pace during the 1990s. Increased minimum and maximum temperatures were most pronounced in northeast China and were lowest in the southwest. Cloud cover and precipitation correlated poorly with the decreasing temperature range. It is argued that a decline in solar irradiance better explains the decreasing range of daily temperatures through its influence on maximum temperature. With declining solar irradiance even on clear days, and with decreases in cloud cover, it is posited that atmospheric aerosols may be contributing to the changing solar irradiance and trends of daily temperatures observed in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding historical trends in temperature, precipitation, and runoff is important but incomplete for developing adaptive measures to climate change to sustain fragile ecosystems in cold and arid regions, including the Balagaer River watershed on the Mongolian Plateau of northeast China. The objective of this study was to detect such trends in this watershed from 1959 to 2017. The detection was accomplished using a Mann-Kendall sudden change approach at annual and seasonal time scales. The results indicated that the abrupt changes in temperature preceded that in either runoff or precipitation; these abrupt changes occurred between 1970 and 2004. Significant (α = 0.05) warming trends were found at the minimum temperatures in spring (0.041 °C a−1), summer (0.037 °C a−1), fall (0.027 °C a−1), and winter (0.031 °C a−1). In contrast, significant decreasing trends were found in the precipitation (−1.27 mm a−1) and runoff (−0.069 mm a−1) in the summer. Marginally increasing trends were found in the precipitation in spring (0.18 mm a−1) and fall (0.032 mm a−1), whereas an insignificant decreasing trend was found in the runoffs in these two seasons. Both precipitation and runoff in the wet season exhibited a significant decreasing trend, whereas in the dry season, they exhibited a marginally increasing trend. Sudden changes in spring runoff and sudden rises in temperature are the main causes of sudden changes in basin rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]