Search

Despite increasing digitalization and automation, complex production processes often require human judgment/decision-making adaptability. Humans can abstract and transfer knowledge to new situations. People in production are an irreplaceable resource. This paper presents a new concept for digitizing human expertise and their ability to make knowledge-based decisions in the production area based on ontologies and causal Bayesian networks for further research. Dedicated approaches for the ontology-based creation of Bayesian networks exist in the literature. Therefore, we first comprehensively analyze previous studies and summarize the approaches. We then add the causal perspective, which has often not been an explicit subject of consideration. We see a research gap in the systematic and structured approach to ontology-based generation of causal graphs (CGs). At the current state of knowledge, the semantic understanding of a domain formalized in an ontology can contribute to developing a generic approach to derive a CG. The ontology functions as a knowledge base by formally representing knowledge and experience. Causal inference calculations can mathematically imitate the human decision-making process under uncertainty. Therefore, a systematic ontology-based approach to building a CG can allow digitizing the human ability to make decisions based on experience and knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the differences between conference papers and journal papers in the field of computer science based on Bayesian network. This paper investigated the differences between conference papers and journal papers in the field of computer science based on Bayesian network, a knowledge-representative framework that can model relationships among all variables in the network. We defined the variables required for Bayesian networks modeling, calculated the values of each variable based Aminer dataset (a literature data set in the field of computer science), learned the Bayesian network and derived some findings based on network inference. The study found that conferences are more attractive to senior scholars, the academic impact of conference papers is slightly higher than journal papers, and it is uncertain whether conference papers are more innovative than journal papers. The study was limited to the field of computer science and employed Aminer dataset as the sample. Further studies involving more diverse datasets and different fields could provide a more complete picture of the matter. By demonstrating that Bayesian networks can effectively analyze issues in Scientometrics, the study offers valuable insights that may enhance researchers' understanding of the differences between journal and conference in computer science. Academic conferences play a crucial role in facilitating scholarly exchange and knowledge dissemination within the field of computer science. Several studies have been conducted to examine the distinctions between conference papers and journal papers in terms of various factors, such as authors, citations, h-index and others. Those studies were carried out from different (independent) perspectives, lacking a systematic examination of the connections and interactions between multiple perspectives. This paper supplements this deficiency based on Bayesian network modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the fundamental goals of modern astrophysics is to estimate the physical parameters of galaxies. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model to compute age maps from images in the H α line (taken with Taurus tunable filter, TTF), ultraviolet band (GALEX far UV, FUV), and infrared bands (Spitzer 24, 70, and 160 |$\mu$| m). We present the burst ages for young stellar populations in a sample of nearby and nearly face-on galaxies. The H α to FUV flux ratio is a good relative indicator of the very recent star formation history (SFH). As a nascent star-forming region evolves, the H α line emission declines earlier than the UV continuum, leading to a decrease in the H α/FUV ratio. Using star-forming galaxy models, sampled with a probabilistic formalism, and allowing for a variable fraction of ionizing photons in the clusters, we obtain the corresponding theoretical ratio H α/FUV to compare with our observed flux ratios, and thus to estimate the ages of the observed regions. We take into account the mean uncertainties and the interrelationships between parameters when computing H α/FUV. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model where a joint probability distribution is defined to determine the parameters (age, metallicity, IMF) from the observed data (the observed flux ratios H α/FUV). The joint distribution of the parameters is described through independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables generated through MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the structure of the households' social capital of rural Vietnam households with secondary data from 2008 to 2018. This paper applied the fundamental theories (resource and network theories) and the Bayesian network to estimate the interaction of proxies to explore the structure of social capital. Results showed that the triangle structure in household social capital with the core point is organization participation. The connections show the tendency from organization participation, linking to household networks. Alongside that, linking social capital and Organization participation are determinants of social capital indicators (social events, social cost). Therefore, this paper suggests employing proxies such as structured indicators for integrating social capital into the livelihood papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main topics of the presented papers focus on various aspects of maritime operations and security, including anomaly detection in maritime traffic, collision risk assessment, and the use of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data for enhancing maritime safety and surveillance. These papers cover a wide range of subjects within the maritime domain, such as trajectory clustering, kinematic behaviour analysis, Bayesian networks for risk assessment, resilience analysis of shipping networks, and the development of novel methods for detecting abnormal maritime behaviour. The emphasis is on using data-driven approaches, statistical methodologies, and advanced technologies to improve maritime operations and security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on changes at the journal that have been implemented or will be implemented soon that will entice the home run paper. It provides recent examples of home run papers in the area of Bayesian statistics research. It describes how the home run paper will involve both practitioners and doctoral students. To motivate authors to strive for home runs, the journal will adopt policies that will involve procedural changes and some will involve content changes, including the use of modern technology to spread the message from the papers.

Background: Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV) is the cause of a chronic immune complex disease, Aleutian disease (AD), which is common in mink-producing countries. In 2005, implementation of an AMDV eradication programme in Finland created a need for an automated high-throughput assay. The aim of this study was to validate an AMDV-VP2 -recombinant antigen ELISA, which we developed earlier, in an automated assay format for the detection of anti-AMDV antibodies in mink blood and to determine the accuracy of this test compared with the reference standard (counter-current immunoelectrophoresis, CIEP). Methods: A blood sampling method based on filter paper 12-strips (blood combs) and a device to introduce these strips to an ELISA plate for elution of the samples were developed. Blood and serum samples were collected from 761 mink from two farms with low (2%) and high (81%) seroprevalences of AMDV infection in 2008. ELISA sensitivity and specificity were estimated with a Bayesian 2-test 2-population model that allowed for conditional dependence between CIEP and ELISA. Agreement between the two tests was assessed with kappa statistic and proportion agreement. Results: The sensitivity and specificity of the automated ELISA system were estimated to be 96.2% and 98.4%, respectively. Agreement between CIEP and ELISA was high, with a kappa value of 0.976 and overall proportion agreement of 98.8%. Conclusions: The automated ELISA system combined with blood comb sampling is an accurate test format for the detection of anti-AMDV antibodies in mink blood and offers several advantages, including improved blood sampling and data handling, fast sample throughput time, and reductions in costs and labour inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relay protection rejection and misoperation exist in the existing distribution network, which will affect the fault diagnosis results. To diagnose faults in distribution networks, this paper presents a fault diagnosis method for the distribution network based on the D-S evidence theory Bayesian network. First, the collected relay protection information is divided into two categories, protection information and circuit breaker information; the corresponding Bayesian network model is established based on their respective action logic, and the corresponding component failure probability is obtained by Bayesian backward inference. Second, the fault probabilities obtained from the two Bayesian networks are fused by the D-S evidence theory, and the obtained fault probabilities are used to diagnose the faulty component. Then, using the Bayesian network corresponding to the faulty component to perform Bayesian forward inference, the protection devices and circuit breakers are identified for misoperation or rejection to achieve the fault diagnosis of the distribution network. Finally, the correctness and reliability of the proposed diagnosis method are verified through the analysis of arithmetic cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As observations of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) in redshifted 21 cm emission begin, we assess the accuracy of the early catalog results from the Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER) and the Murchison Wide-field Array (MWA). The MWA EoR approach derives much of its sensitivity from subtracting foregrounds to <1% precision, while the PAPER approach relies on the stability and symmetry of the primary beam. Both require an accurate flux calibration to set the amplitude of the measured power spectrum. The two instruments are very similar in resolution, sensitivity, sky coverage, and spectral range and have produced catalogs from nearly contemporaneous data. We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo fitting method to estimate that the two instruments are on the same flux scale to within 20% and find that the images are mostly in good agreement. We then investigate the source of the errors by comparing two overlapping MWA facets where we find that the differences are primarily related to an inaccurate model of the primary beam but also correlated errors in bright sources due to clean. We conclude with suggestions for mitigating and better characterizing these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

P values linked to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most widely (mis)used method of statistical inference. Empirical data suggest that across the biomedical literature (1990–2015), when abstracts use P values 96% of them have P values of 0.05 or less. The same percentage (96%) applies for full-text articles. Among 100 articles in PubMed, 55 report P values, while only 4 present confidence intervals for all the reported effect sizes, none use Bayesian methods and none use false-discovery rate. Over 25 years (1990–2015), use of P values in abstracts has doubled for all PubMed, and tripled for meta-analyses, while for some types of designs such as randomized trials the majority of abstracts report P values. There is major selective reporting for P values. Abstracts tend to highlight most favorable P values and inferences use even further spin to reach exaggerated, unreliable conclusions. The availability of large-scale data on P values from many papers has allowed the development and applications of methods that try to detect and model selection biases, for example, p-hacking, that cause patterns of excess significance. Inferences need to be cautious as they depend on the assumptions made by these models and can be affected by the presence of other biases (e.g., confounding in observational studies). While much of the unreliability of past and present research is driven by small, underpowered studies, NHST with P values may be also particularly problematic in the era of overpowered big data. NHST and P values are optimal only in a minority of current research. Using a more stringent threshold, as in the recently proposed shift from P < 0.05 to P < 0.005, is a temporizing measure to contain the flood and death-by-significance. NHST and P values may be replaced in many fields by other, more fit-for-purpose, inferential methods. However, curtailing selection biases requires additional measures, beyond changes in inferential methods, and in particular reproducible research practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much debate exists between Frequentist and Bayesian methods in statistics. In the evaluation of evidence, the likelihood ratio is credited with quantifying the value of evidence in favour of one or other proposition by considering the probability of the evidence conditional on each proposition and this then converts the Bayesian prior odds into the posterior odds. Motivated by this approach, this paper considers an alternative p-value-based likelihood ratio by explicitly taking into account the behaviour of the Frequentist p-value under both hypotheses, rather than restricting focus solely on the null hypothesis. It is shown that by accommodating the alternative hypothesis, analysis leads to inferential conclusions which are consistent with Bayesian methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on an analysis of the structure of a scientific paper on plate tectonics using philosophical models. Basis of a survey of scientific papers; Correctness of the experimental result; Use of Bayesianism to account for the argument for the theoretical explanation of the experimental result.

Companies are usually overloaded with data that they may not know how to take advantage of. On the other hand, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are known to "keep learning" as the data increase. In this context, our research question emerges: what AI-based methods, in the literature, could be used to automatize business processes and support the decision-making processes of companies? To fill this gap, in this paper, we performed a review of the literature to identify these techniques. We ensured the usage of methods since they allowed reproducibility and extensions. We applied our search string in the Scopus and Web of Science databases and discovered 21 relevant papers pertaining to our question. In these papers, we identified methods that automated tasks and helped analysts make assertive decisions when designing, extending, or reengineering business processes. The authors applied diverse AI techniques, such as K-means, Bayesian networks, and swarm intelligence. Our analysis provides statistics about the techniques and problems being tackled and point to possible future directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the issues related to the bayesian analysis and likelihood-ratio tests for interpretation of evidences in legal cases for giving appropriate judgments. It highlights the accuracy and precision of the non-scientific approaches for assessment of evidences. Also investigated is feasibility of the approaches in coming to a conclusion for appropriate judgments in different court cases.

The article discusses the criticism of the court against the evidences presented in R v. T legal case. It mentions that the juries expressed their concern regarding the illogical method implied to prove the crime against the accused. Also investigated are deformities in the bayesian analysis and likelihood-ratio tests approaches for assessment of evidences in legal cases.

The determination of plotting positions on probability graph paper so that the associated weighted least squares estimators of the scale parameter and the percentiles of a continuous distribution have certain properties is discussed. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for an invariant optimal plot for percentile estimation. Also discussed is the derivation of ordered plotting positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In conservation biology, uncertainty about the choice of a statistical model is rarely considered. Model-selection uncertainty occurs whenever one model is chosen over plausible alternative models to represent understanding about a process and to make predictions about future observations. The standard approach to representing prediction uncertainty involves the calculation of prediction (or confidence) intervals that incorporate uncertainty about parameter estimates contingent on the choice of a “best” model chosen to represent truth. However, this approach to prediction based on statistical models tends to ignore model-selection uncertainty, resulting in overconfident predictions. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been promoted in a range of disciplines as a simple means of incorporating model-selection uncertainty into statistical inference and prediction. Bayesian model averaging also provides a formal framework for incorporating prior knowledge about the process being modeled. We provide an example of the application of BMA in modeling and predicting the spatial distribution of an arboreal marsupial in the Eden region of southeastern Australia. Other approaches to estimating prediction uncertainty are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gives suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic and Bayesian analysis paradigms. How the methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods; Guidelines on presentation of results using the alternative procedures; Recommendations on the reporting of the results of statistical tests of null hypotheses.

A System-of-Systems (SoS) is characterized both by independence and by inter-dependency. This inter-dependency, while allowing an SoS to achieve its objectives, also means that failures can cascade throughout the SoS. An SoS needs to be resilient to deal with the impact of complex internal and external environments. In this paper, we propose a resilience analysis method of an SoS based on a hierarchy structure. Firstly, we establish a hierarchy structure, which is ranked from high to low as capability level, activity level and system level. Then, Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are used to analyze the resilience of the SoS. A resilience-based system importance metric is introduced, which is used in the budget allocation optimization problem during the development domain of an SoS. This paper proposes a mathematical programming model aimed at optimizing SoS resilience by optimally using budget to the subsystem. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study: a Next Generation Air Transportation setting. The study results provide evidence that the proposed inter-dependency analysis based on Bayesian theory and the SoS resilience design approach can assist SoS system engineers in increasing expected SoS resilience during the development domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the lifeblood of national energy, oil and gas pipelines are vulnerable to corrosion, third-party damage, and natural disasters. Among these, third-party damage accidents have a high probability and serious consequences. However, China lacks a mature and unified pipeline accident database, making it difficult to assess and manage the risk of such incidents. To address this issue, this paper identifies 20 key risk factors for third-party damage to oil and gas pipelines through literature and case studies. The paper then proposes a multistate probabilistic assessment model using the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling method (ISM), Røed method, and Bayesian network (BN). Real case studies demonstrate that the model not only predicts the probability of third-party damage risks but also clearly identifies key influencing factors and causal chains in the risk system. This provides a new approach for assessing third-party damage risks to oil and gas pipelines and offers a scientific basis for decision-making in managing actual pipelines. Practical Applications: The high probability and serious consequences of third-party damage accidents of oil and gas pipelines have caused certain hidden dangers to social security, environment, and economy, and put forward higher requirements for pipeline operation and management. In order to scientifically manage and effectively control the occurrence of third-party damage accidents of oil and gas pipelines, this paper, in the absence of an applicable pipeline failure database. Based on expert knowledge, a model that can be used for the assessment and prediction of third-party damage probability of oil and gas pipelines is constructed. Through the application of real cases, it is shown that the model can be used not only to predict the probability of third-party damage of oil and gas pipelines, but also to identify the key influencing factors and key causal chains leading to third-party damage. The results of the study not only provide theoretical support for pipeline management in reality, but also provide new ideas for risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines that lack actual data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Administrative strategies to cope with drought are steadily changing, from emergency procedures to day-to-day monitoring. More consideration must be paid to long-term and preventive drought control measures in the future. This paper discusses the risk of hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin. The standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to characterize hydrological drought, and the run theory was used to identify drought states and quantify drought characteristic variables. Based on the drought severity and duration, a drought development plan was proposed and a three-dimensional copula function was constructed to obtain the joint distribution function of three-dimensional drought characteristic variables. A drought risk assessment system based on the loss × probability risk theory was constructed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of hydrological drought risk in the Yellow River Basin. Finally, according to the risk assessment results, the risk level was divided into low, medium and high risk, and a Bayesian network was used to explore the probability of hydrological drought. The main results are as follows: (1) From 1960 to 2018, the severity of hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin increased, the duration lengthened, and the development speed accelerated. (2) The hydrological drought risk in the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend, with the fastest increase in the HJ region of 0.041/10a. The highest annual average drought risk in the TDG region is 0.598. (3) The spatial transmission of hydrological drought risk is divided into three types: constant, enhanced and mitigation types, of which the constant type is the most common. The transmission probabilities of low, medium and high risk of hydrological drought from the HYK region to the low, medium and high risk of hydrological drought in the LJ region are 0.68, 0.66 and 0.78, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's highly advanced information technology environment, modern network and communication technologies are widely used in monitoring and controlling power systems. These technologies have evolved significantly. They now form a high-performance digital system known as the cyber–physical power system. However, vulnerabilities in communication networks present growing threats to these systems. This paper seeks to enhance the accurate assessment of the security posture of cyber-physical power systems by inferring attackers' intentions. A threat modeling approach based on Bayesian attack graphs is presented, employing Bayesian networks to define and evaluate potential threats that attackers could pose to different system infrastructures. The paper initially conducts a qualitative analysis of the system's threats, constructing a directed graph structure and establishing conditional probability tables among nodes based on prior knowledge. Subsequently, methods are developed to compute the threat levels at different system nodes using real-time detected attack events. Further analysis methods and security assessment metrics are also developed to identify attack paths and quantify system security. Finally, a Bayesian attack graph is constructed in accordance with the system's structure. In practical scenarios, the attack path analysis method can predict the most vulnerable attack paths, while the absolute values of the security assessment metrics indicate the overall risk level of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is common in financial markets for market makers to offer prices on derivative instruments even though they are uncertain about the underlying asset's value. This paper studies the mathematical problem that arises as a result. Derivatives are priced in the risk-neutral framework, so as the market maker acquires more information about the underlying asset, the change of measure for transition to the risk-neutral framework (the pricing kernel) evolves. This evolution takes a precise form when the market maker is Bayesian. It is shown that Bayesian updates can be characterized as additional informational drift in the underlying asset's stochastic process. With Bayesian updates, the change of measure needed for pricing derivatives is two-fold: the first change is from the prior probability measure to the posterior probability measure, and the second change is from the posterior probability measure to the risk-neutral measure. The relation between the regular pricing kernel and the pricing kernel under this two-fold change of measure is characterized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to identify the medical risk of applying big data technology and to build a medical big data risk (MBDR) control process and manage medical big data risk (MBDR) from a systematic perspective. In this process, we firstly used systematic literature reviews (SLRs) method to systematically search 322 papers in web of science with the topics of "medical risk" and "big data risk" to build a dimensional system of medical big data risk (MBDR) from the theoretical level. Based on a case study of a hospital in Shanghai, we explored the formation mechanism and interaction effect of medical big data risk (MBDR) by using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) method, and built a systematic risk control process. This paper finally finds that: the dimensional system of medical big data risk (MBDR) includes 24 subdimensions and 5 major categories of dimensions, which helps to explore the medical application of big data technology from a risk perspective. In addition, the medical big data risk (MBDR) control process constructed in this paper includes: risk prediction, reverse reasoning, risk control, and risk prevention in 4 aspects, which is important for hospitals to actually carry out medical big data risk (MBDR) control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In a cluster randomised controlled trial (CRCT), randomisation units are "clusters" such as schools or GP practices. This has methodological implications for study design and statistical analysis, since clustering often leads to correlation between observations which, if not accounted for, can lead to spurious conclusions of efficacy/effectiveness. Bayesian methodology offers a flexible, intuitive framework to deal with such issues, but its use within CRCT design and analysis appears limited. This review aims to explore and quantify the use of Bayesian methodology in the design and analysis of CRCTs, and appraise the quality of reporting against CONSORT guidelines. Methods: We sought to identify all reported/published CRCTs that incorporated Bayesian methodology and papers reporting development of new Bayesian methodology in this context, without restriction on publication date or location. We searched Medline and Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Reporting quality metrics according to the CONSORT extension for CRCTs were collected, as well as demographic data, type and nature of Bayesian methodology used, journal endorsement of CONSORT guidelines, and statistician involvement. Results: Twenty-seven publications were included, six from an additional hand search. Eleven (40.7%) were reports of CRCT results: seven (25.9%) were primary results papers and four (14.8%) reported secondary results. Thirteen papers (48.1%) reported Bayesian methodological developments, the remaining three (11.1%) compared different methods. Four (57.1%) of the primary results papers described the method of sample size calculation; none clearly accounted for clustering. Six (85.7%) clearly accounted for clustering in the analysis. All results papers reported use of Bayesian methods in the analysis but none in the design or sample size calculation. Conclusions: The popularity of the CRCT design has increased rapidly in the last twenty years but this has not been mirrored by an uptake of Bayesian methodology in this context. Of studies using Bayesian methodology, there were some differences in reporting quality compared to CRCTs in general, but this study provided insufficient data to draw firm conclusions. There is an opportunity to further develop Bayesian methodology for the design and analysis of CRCTs in order to expand the accessibility, availability, and, ultimately, use of this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we proposed a new method of evaluating horse ability and jockey skills in horse racing. In the proposed method, we aimed to estimate unobservable individual effects of horses and jockeys simultaneously with regression coefficients for explanatory variables such as horse age and racetrack conditions and other parameters in the regression model. The data used in this paper are records on 1800-m races (excluding steeplechases) held by the Japan Racing Association from 2016 to 2018, including 4063 horses and 143 jockeys. We applied the hierarchical Bayesian model to stably estimate such a large amount of individual effects. We used the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method coupled with Ancillarity- Sufficiency Interweaving Strategy for Bayesian estimation of the model and choose the best model with Widely Applicable Information Criterion as a model selection criterion. As a result, we found a large difference in the ability among horses and jockeys. Additionally, we observed a strong relationship between the individual effects and the race records for both horses and jockeys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the likelihood-ratio tests and bayesian approach for interpretation of evidences in legal practice. It highlights the differences in results concluded through putting the two logical approaches in determination of forensic evidences. It also refers to the differences between the legal tradition for the requirements of logical inference concluded through bayesian analysis and likelihood-ratio tests for evaluation of evidence by juries.

The exponential random graph model (ERGM) is a popular model for social networks, which is known to have an intractable likelihood function. Sampling from the posterior for such a model is a long-standing problem in statistical research. We analyze the performance of the stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithm (also known as noisy Longevin Monte Carlo) in tackling this problem, where the stochastic gradient is calculated via running a short Markov chain (the so-called inner Markov chain in this paper) at each iteration. We show that if the model size grows with the network size slowly enough, then SGLD converges to the true posterior in 2-Wasserstein distance as the network size and iteration number become large regardless of the length of the inner Markov chain performed at each iteration. Our study provides a scalable algorithm for analyzing large-scale social networks with possibly high-dimensional ERGMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian inference is a popular and widely-used approach to infer phylogenies (evolutionary trees). However, despite decades of widespread application, it remains difficult to judge how well a given Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) run explores the space of phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we investigate the Monte Carlo error of phylogenies, focusing on high-dimensional summaries of the posterior distribution, including variability in estimated edge/branch (known in phylogenetics as "split") probabilities and tree probabilities, and variability in the estimated summary tree. Specifically, we ask if there is any measure of effective sample size (ESS) applicable to phylogenetic trees which is capable of capturing the Monte Carlo error of these three summary measures. We find that there are some ESS measures capable of capturing the error inherent in using MCMC samples to approximate the posterior distributions on phylogenies. We term these tree ESS measures, and identify a set of three which are useful in practice for assessing the Monte Carlo error. Lastly, we present visualization tools that can improve comparisons between multiple independent MCMC runs by accounting for the Monte Carlo error present in each chain. Our results indicate that common post-MCMC workflows are insufficient to capture the inherent Monte Carlo error of the tree, and highlight the need for both within-chain mixing and between-chain convergence assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effectiveness of different unsupervised Bayesian changepoint detection (BCPD) methods for identifying soil layers, using data from cone penetration tests (CPT). It compares four types of BCPD methods: a previously utilised offline univariate method for detecting clay layers through undrained shear strength data, a newly developed online univariate method, and an offline and an online multivariate method designed to simultaneously analyse multiple data series from CPT. The performance of these BCPD methods was tested using real CPT data from a study area with layers of sandy and clayey soil, and the results were verified against ground-truth data from adjacent borehole investigations. The findings suggest that some BCPD methods are more suitable than others in providing a robust, quick, and automated approach for the unsupervised detection of soil layering, which is critical for geotechnical engineering design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian networks are commonly used for learning with uncertainty and incorporating expert knowledge. However, they are hard to interpret, especially when the network structure is complex. Methods used to explain Bayesian networks operate under certain assumptions about what constitutes the best explanation, without actually verifying these assumptions. One such common assumption is that a shorter length of the causal chain of one variable to another enhances its explanatory strength. Counterfactual explanations gained popularity in artificial intelligence over the last years. It is well-known that it is possible to generate counterfactuals from causal Bayesian networks, but there is no indication which of them are useful for explanatory purposes. In this paper, we examine how to apply findings from psychology to search for counterfactuals that are perceived as more useful explanations for the end user. For this purpose, we have conducted a questionnaire to test whether counterfactuals that change an actionable cause are considered more useful than counterfactuals that change a direct cause. The results of the questionnaire indicate that actionable counterfactuals are preferred regardless of being the direct cause or having a longer causal chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex risk factors make metro construction safety accidents prone to occur, and there are various types of accidents. Accident reports record detailed information about different types of accidents in text form. However, effectively utilizing such unstructured data presents a significant challenge. Text mining (TM) provides a viable foundation for addressing this challenge, but related studies have limitations in risk feature extraction and lack of in-depth analysis capability. To address the deficiencies of existing studies and provide a feasible strategy for identifying key risk factors in the metro construction domain, this paper proposes an integrated model combining TM and machine learning–based Bayesian networks. Firstly, the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) algorithm in TM was used to separately extract the direct and indirect cause factors from the accident reports, with the missing factors supplemented using the TextRank algorithm. Then, depending on the assumption of whether to consider the conditional independence between factors, an improved naive Bayesian network (NBN) and a tree-augmented naive Bayesian network (TAN) were built based on the extracted factors and the corresponding accident types, respectively, for further in-depth analysis. Finally, the training set was divided to train the two network models, and sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key risk factors. Using 162 accident reports from China as an application example, the results showed that TAN exhibited a higher average accuracy (79.62%) in the test set compared with the improved NBN (71.75%), and the importance of risk factors for different accident types was successfully ranked from multiple perspectives using TAN. Meanwhile, some new insights into metro accidents in China were obtained, which can support decision-making for accident prevention and control. In conclusion, this paper effectively addresses the relevant limitations of accident text utilization and presents a novel approach for metro construction safety management. Analyzing accident texts can help gain insights from objective historical data to support safety management efforts. However, accident texts are often unstructured and contain a lot of irrelevant content. How to quickly extract valid information from accident text and use it to analyze accidents in depth is of continuous interest to safety managers. In particular, those models that have real-time decision support capabilities in addition to theoretical insights. This paper proposes an integrated model that combines text mining and machine-learning Bayesian networks. This model achieves comprehensive textual feature extraction, multifaceted accident causation analysis, and allows safety managers to input current accident information into the model to obtain real-time decision support for accident prevention and control. Although the proposed model is developed for metro construction, it can be slightly adapted by incorporating the characteristics of accident texts from similar domains to obtain an integrated model suitable for these domains, so as to effectively control the occurrence of safety accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising the power production of large wind farms is key to the transition towards net zero. The overarching goal of this paper is to propose a computational method to maximise the power production of wind farms with two practical design strategies. First, we propose a gradient-free method to optimise the wind farm power production with high-fidelity surrogate models based on large-eddy simulations and a Bayesian framework. Second, we apply the proposed method to maximise wind farm power production by both micro-siting (layout optimisation) and wake steering (yaw angle optimisation). Third, we compare the optimisation results with the optimisation achieved with low-fidelity wake models. Finally, we propose a simple multi-fidelity strategy by combining the inexpensive wake models with the high-fidelity framework. The proposed gradient-free method can effectively maximise wind farm power production. Performance improvements relative to wake-model optimisation strategies can be attained, particularly in scenarios of increased flow complexity, such as in the wake steering problem, in which some of the assumptions in the simplified flow models become less accurate. The optimisation with high-fidelity methods takes into account nonlinear and unsteady fluid mechanical phenomena, which are leveraged by the proposed framework to increase the farm output. This paper opens up opportunities for wind farm optimisation with high-fidelity methods and without adjoint solvers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precast concrete production process faces uncertainties and risks that reduce the efficiency of the Saudi precast concrete industry. Assessing the risk factors' interdependence yields better results than considering individual analyses only. The previous precast risk studies did not consider the interdependencies among risk factors concerning different process stages. This paper aims to identify precast risk factors and prioritize their importance in Saudi Arabia. Using a dynamic Bayesian network, the assessment considers the interrelationships among the risk factors and different production stages. The risk factors were collected from previous studies, evaluated, and classified into the five construction stages by performing structured interviews with ten experts. The probabilities of the root risks and conditional probabilities of intermediate and leaf risks were assessed based on the ten experts. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to provide the status of these probabilities, which were considered input data for the GeNIe program. The main results revealed that erection productivity is the highest risk, with a probability value of 0.87. In addition, the design schedule's significance directly impacts production capacity, resulting in a probability value of 0.74. However, the site management risk is low, with a 0.32 probability value. This paper assists practitioners in optimizing construction schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework to estimate parameters of an acquisition function given observed human behavior that can be modeled as a collection of sample paths from a Bayesian optimization procedure. The methodology involves defining a likelihood on observed human behavior from an optimization task, where the likelihood is parameterized by a Bayesian optimization subroutine governed by an unknown acquisition function. This structure enables us to make inference on a subject's acquisition function while allowing their behavior to deviate around the solution to the Bayesian optimization subroutine. To test our methods, we designed a sequential optimization task which forced subjects to balance exploration and exploitation in search of an invisible target location. Applying our proposed methods to the resulting data, we find that many subjects tend to exhibit exploration preferences beyond that of standard acquisition functions to capture. Guided by the model discrepancies, we augment the candidate acquisition functions to yield a superior fit to the human behavior in this task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-source data fusion techniques are widely applied in dynamic target detection scenarios, such as target situational awareness, radar signal resolution, and feature fusion labeling. Currently, techniques including clustering, neural networks, Bayesian analysis, and machine learning have been applied to improve the success rate of multi-source data fusion in terms of interference data noise reduction. The research on data tampering prevention of multiple data sources is mainly based on the data distributed authentication technology. The research on performing data fusion process in a trusted execution environment is mainly based on cryptography and codec technology. This paper focuses on the technical application architecture that can effectively improve the comprehensive efficiency of multi-source data fusion processing under the constraints of business scenarios. Accordingly, this paper proposes a trusted execution environment architecture based on blockchain technology for multi-source data fusion scenarios. It integrates the strategy of trusted data source data verification in blockchain smart contracts into the typical multi-source data fusion application architecture. After comparison tests in a simulation environment, the trusted execution environment architecture based on blockchain technology has shown considerable improvements in fusion success rate with limited performance cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structured mixture item response models (StrMixIRMs) are a special type of constrained confirmatory mixture item response theory (IRT) model for detecting latent performance differences in a measurement instrument by characteristic item groups, and classifying respondents according to these differences. In light of limited software options for estimating StrMixIRMs under existing frameworks, this paper proposes reparameterizing it as a confirmatory mixture IRT model using interaction effects between latent classes and item groups. The reparameterization allows for easier implementation of StrMixIRMs with multiple software programs that have mixture modeling capabilities, including open-source ones. This widens the accessibility to these models to a broad range of users and thus can facilitate research and applications of StrMixIRMs. This paper serves two main goals: First, we introduce StrMixIRMs, focusing on the proposed reparameterization based on interaction effects and its various extensions. Second, we illustrate use cases of this novel reparameterization within the mirt 1.41 package in R by employing two empirical datasets. Detailed R code with notes are provided for the applications along with an interpretation of the outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medical cancer rehabilitation healthcare center data maintenance is a global challenge with increased mortality risk. The Internet of Things (IoT)-based applications in healthcare were implemented through sensors and various connecting devices. The main problem of this procedure is the privacy of data, which is the biggest challenge with IoT, as all the connected devices transfer data in real time, the integration of multiple and other protocols can be hacked by the end-to-end connection, and it is not secure, security issues may crop up due to handling of such massive data in real time. Recent studies showed that a more structured risk assessment is needed to secure the medical cancer rehabilitation healthcare center data maintenance. In this respect, collaborative learning frameworks, such as Deep Federated Collaborative Learning (DFCL), are implemented for the study of medical cancer rehabilitation healthcare center data maintenance based on IoT-based systems and are proposed with smart short-term Bayesian convolution network systems for data analysis. This DFCL approach has been preferred in this context, strengthening privacy by allowing sensitive data to be retained. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the federated model balances fairness, privacy, and accuracy. In this paper, we analyze administrative data count by medical stages taken from 2016 to 2022, the administrative data include data for routine operations. It is frequently used to assess by achieving an accuracy range of 19.8%. The leading diagnoses taken as per the patient's cost and stay count identifying a disease, illness, or problem by examining the unusual combination of symptoms made an accurate diagnosis which is 26% more efficient than the leading diagnosis. The hospital dictionary analysis is based on dictionary analysis count and data visualization summary; accuracy is 50% higher than the existing data visualization summary. By comparing the hospital dictionary, home health care analysis shows a 44.5% efficient analysis rate for patient data maintenance. Moreover, the adult day-care centers analyzed 88.6% efficient analysis rate for patient data maintenance with 750 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Making predictions bounded by uncertainty is a crucial component of modern decision support systems. Knowledge graphs provide a structured, semantic-oriented approach to data integration, storage and retrieval; however, they represent data in an absolute way and do not natively support reasoning under uncertain future conditions. In this paper, we present a novel technique for building a probabilistic model from a knowledge graph using a Bayesian network, which is a step towards enabling probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty within a knowledge graph. Our approach supports mixing of continuously and discretely-distributed variables, which is necessary for jointly processing real-world data, but has not typically been supported in prior work. As an interface to the probabilistic model, we propose an extension of the SPARQL query language called Orion DSL, which is currently a working prototype. We also define a custom probabilistic ontology in order to store outputs of the model directly in the knowledge graph alongside the original data, which we refer to as a Probabilistic Knowledge Graph (PKG). The evaluation shows that: (1) the dependencies and distributions of data in a synthetically-generated knowledge graph were accurately captured by the Bayesian model, and (2) an SPARQL query against the PKG to retrieve computed probability distributions was orders of magnitude more performant than a similarly-intentioned query against the base knowledge graph. We anticipate that the models generated by this system will have applications in the areas of predicting missing data, approximate query processing, and utility-based optimization. Future work will involve more detailed explorations of each of these topics as we work towards a PKG-based decision support system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having a safe and efficient system for mineral transportation is a top priority for all mining operations. Trucks are the most widely used material transportation systems that are applied in both surface and underground mines. Any truck failure disrupts the mineral transportation process and consequently decreases the overall output. Therefore, the reliability analysis of such equipment plays a critical role in increasing the efficiency and productivity of a mining operation. This paper proposes a novel method for analyzing the reliability of a fleet of mining trucks based on the Bayesian Network modeling. Considering the reliability block diagram, the fault tree of trucks was developed according to the logical relationship between the units. Then, a dynamic Bayesian network was constructed according to the conditional probability analysis. Moreover, the relative contributions of each truck's component to the occurrence of the fleet failure were studied by using critical analysis. The results of this paper show that the successful operation of the fleet of trucks is most sensitive to truck no. 5, which has the highest reliability level in all time intervals. The reliability of the fleet of trucks reaches 0.881 at 20 h, and the fuel injection system of the truck's engine is the main leading cause of the trucks failure. A proper preventive maintenance strategy should be paid more attention to improve the reliability and availability of the engine system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A typhoon passing through or making landfall in a coastal city may result in seawater intrusion and continuous rainfall, which may cause urban flooding. The urban flood disaster caused by a typhoon is a dynamic process that changes over time, and a dynamic Gaussian Bayesian network (DGBN) is used to model the time series events in this paper. The scene data generated by each typhoon are different, which means that each typhoon has different characteristics. This paper establishes multiple DGBNs based on the historical data of Macau flooding caused by multiple typhoons, and similar analysis is made between the scene data related to the current flooding to be predicted and the scene data of historical flooding. The DGBN most similar to the scene characteristics of the current flooding is selected as the predicting network of the current flooding. According to the topography, the influence of the surface confluence is considered, and the Manning formula analysis method is proposed. The Manning formula is combined with the DGBN to obtain the final prediction model, DGBN-m, which takes into account the effects of time series and non-time-series factors. The flooding data provided by the Macau Meteorological Bureau are used to carry out experiments, and it is proved that the proposed model can predict the flooding depth well in a specific area of Macau under the condition of a small amount of data and that the best predicting accuracy can reach 84%. Finally, generalization analysis is performed to further confirm the validity of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of model complexity has been lively debated in environmental sciences as well as in the forest modelling community. Simple models are less input demanding and their calibration involves a lower number of parameters, but they might be suitable only at local scale. In this work we calibrated a simplified ecosystem process model (PRELES) to data from multiple sites and we tested if PRELES can be used at regional scale to estimate the carbon and water fluxes of Boreal conifer forests. We compared a multi-site (M-S) with site-specific (S-S) calibrations. Model calibrations and evaluations were carried out by the means of the Bayesian method; Bayesian calibration (BC) and Bayesian model comparison (BMC) were used to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters and model structure. To evaluate model performances BMC results were combined with more classical analysis of model-data mismatch (M-DM). Evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) measurements collected in 10 sites of Finland and Sweden were used in the study. Calibration results showed that similar estimates were obtained for the parameters at which model outputs are most sensitive. No significant differences were encountered in the predictions of the multi-site and site-specific versions of PRELES with exception of a site with agricultural history (Alkkia). Although PRELES predicted GPP better than evapotranspiration, we concluded that the model can be reliably used at regional scale to simulate carbon and water fluxes of Boreal forests. Our analyses underlined also the importance of using long and carefully collected flux datasets in model calibration. In fact, even a single site can provide model calibrations that can be applied at a wider spatial scale, since it covers a wide range of variability in climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]