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The article provides information about the development of the journal "Archives of Disease in Childhood." The British Medical Association (BMA) has founded the journal in 1926. In 1977, the BMA and British Pediatric Association (BPA) became partners and shared profits and losses with up to 800 copies given to BPA members. Years passed by, the journal has adapted new technology and become more friendly to the reader. It has embraced standard approaches to assessment and criticisms of papers.

This paper examines the experiences of women in one professional organisation - the British Medical Association in Australia - during a significant period in the development of such bodies. In doing so it offers an opportunity to consider the relationship between professional societies and the construction of a gendered profession. For the medical profession in particular the time-frame of this study, from the 1880s to the 1930s, has been regarded by scholars as especially important. In this period various features of medical professionalism came to prominence: the status and authority of doctors, the processes of formally registering medical credentials, and the scope and cohesiveness of professional associations. Taking the third of these themes, the current paper extends previous analyses by uniting gender with history and medicine as the central point of examination, in order to evaluate the changing and contested positions of women within the profession. In this way we not only demonstrate how the history of professional societies can reveal the diverse beliefs and shifting priorities of their members, but also contribute to explaining the remarkable persistence of gendered differences in the medical profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In low-seismicity areas such as Europe, seismic records do not cover the whole range of variable configurations required for seismic hazard analysis. Usually, a set of empirical models established in such context (the Mediterranean Basin, northeast U.S.A., Japan, etc.) is considered through a logic-tree-based selection process. This approach is mainly based on the scientist's expertise and ignores the uncertainty in model selection. One important and potential consequence of neglecting model uncertainty is that we assign more precision to our inference than what is warranted by the data, and this leads to overly confident decisions and precision. In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach, using nine ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) issued from several databases. The BMA method has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, especially in empirical settings with large number of potential models and relatively limited number of observations. Two numerical techniques, based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method and the maximum likelihood estimation approach, for implementing BMA are presented and applied together with around 1000 records issued from the RESORCE-2013 database. In the example considered, it is shown that BMA provides both a hierarchy of GMPEs and an improved out-of-sample predictive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff or water level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state‐of‐the‐art hydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with meteorological ensemble forecasts. Hence, biases and dispersion errors of the meteorological forecasts cascade down to the hydrological predictions and add to the errors of the hydrological models. The systematic parts of these errors can be reduced by applying statistical postprocessing. For a sound estimation of predictive uncertainty and an optimal correction of systematic errors, statistical postprocessing methods should be tailored to the particular forecast variable at hand. Former studies have shown that it can make sense to treat hydrological quantities as bounded variables. In this paper, a doubly truncated Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method, which allows for flexible postprocessing of possibly multimodel ensemble forecasts of water level, is introduced. A case study based on water levels for a gauge of river Rhine reveals a good predictive skill of doubly truncated BMA compared both to the raw ensemble and the reference ensemble model output statistics approach. Using rolling training periods, BMA considerably outerperforms ensemble model output statistics. However, this gap shrinks drastically when using analog‐based training periods. Key Points: Doubly truncated Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is introduced as a postprocessing methodThe proposed BMA approach, which is tailored to bounded variables, outperforms an ensemble model output statistics reference methodThe benefit from BMA is considerable for rolling training periods but shrinks drastically for analog‐based training periods [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into bone marrow adiposity (BMA) has expanded greatly since the late 1990s, leading to development of new methods for the study of bone marrow adipocytes. Simultaneously, research fields interested in BMA have diversified substantially. This increasing interest is revealing fundamental new knowledge of BMA; however, it has also led to a highly variable nomenclature that makes it difficult to interpret and compare results from different studies. A consensus on BMA nomenclature has therefore become indispensable. This article addresses this critical need for standardised terminology and consistent reporting of parameters related to BMA research. The International Bone Marrow Adiposity Society (BMAS) was formed in 2017 to consolidate the growing scientific community interested in BMA. To address the BMA nomenclature challenge, BMAS members from diverse fields established a working group (WG). Based on their broad expertise, the WG first reviewed the existing, unsystematic nomenclature and identified terms, and concepts requiring further discussion. They thereby identified and defined 8 broad concepts and methods central to BMA research. Notably, these had been described using 519 unique combinations of term, abbreviation and unit, many of which were overlapping or redundant. On this foundation a second consensus was reached, with each term classified as " to use " or " not to use." As a result, the WG reached a consensus to craft recommendations for 26 terms related to concepts and methods in BMA research. This was approved by the Scientific Board and Executive Board of BMAS and is the basis for the present recommendations for a formal BMA nomenclature. As an example, several terms or abbreviations have been used to represent "bone marrow adipocytes," including BMAds, BM-As , and BMAs. The WG decided that BMA should refer to "bone marrow adiposity"; that BM-A is too similar to BMA ; and noted that "Ad" has previously been recommended to refer to adipocytes. Thus, it was recommended to use BMAds to represent bone marrow adipocytes. In conclusion, the standard nomenclature proposed in this article should be followed for all communications of results related to BMA. This will allow for better interactions both inside and outside of this emerging scientific community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many jurisdictions require cyclists to wear bicycle helmets. The UK is currently not one of these. However, an increasing number of interest groups, including the British Medical Association, want to change the status quo. They argue that mandatory cycle helmet laws will reduce the incidence of head injuries and that this will be both good for cyclists (because they will suffer fewer head injuries) and good for society (because the burden of having to treat cyclists suffering from head injuries will be reduced). In this paper we argue against this position. We suggest that cycle helmets may not be especially effective in reducing head injuries and we suggest that the imposition of such a restrictive law would violate people's freedom and reduce their autonomy. We also argue that those who accept such a restrictive law would be committed to supporting further legislation which would force many other groups -- including pedestrians -- to take fewer risks with their health. We conclude that cycle helmet legislation should not be enacted in the UK unless, perhaps, it is restricted to children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the study area was the Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali, West Africa. The IND is threatened by climate change, increasing irrigation, and dam operations. 2D hydrodynamic modelling was used to simulate water levels, discharge, and inundation extent in the IND. Three different digital elevation models (DEM) (SRTM, MERIT, and a DEM derived from satellite images were used as a source of elevation data. Six different models were created, with different sources of elevation data and different downstream boundary conditions. Given that the performance of the models varies according to the location in the IND, the variable under consideration and the performance criteria, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was used to assess the relative performance of each of the six models. The BMA weights, along with deterministic performance measures, such as the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), provide quantitative evidence as to which model is the best when simulating a particular hydraulic variable at a particular location. After the models were combined with BMA, both discharge and water levels could be simulated with reasonable precision (NS > 0.8). The results of this work can contribute to the more efficient management of water resources in the IND. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a paper in the last issue of Clinical Medicine, some of the background to attitudes to newly dead bodies, the current context of an urgent need for organs for transplant and the objections to calling a proposal to address this 'presumed consent' were outlined. Here further concerns are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the British Medical Association's (BMA) efforts to promote medical ethics among its members. The topics discussed include the evolution of BMA's series of advisory materials over the years into the 900-page "Medical Ethics Today - the BMA's Handbook of Ethics and Law," the shorter "Everyday Medical Ethics and Law" pocketbook version, and how BMA formulates ethical standards and guidelines. Examples of common and recent ethical issues as of February 2014 are presented.

Modern high-throughput experiments provide a rich resource to investigate causal determinants of disease risk. Mendelian randomization (MR) is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the causal effect of a specific risk factor on an outcome. Multivariable MR is an extension of the standard MR framework to consider multiple potential risk factors in a single model. However, current implementations of multivariable MR use standard linear regression and hence perform poorly with many risk factors. Here, we propose a two-sample multivariable MR approach based on Bayesian model averaging (MR-BMA) that scales to high-throughput experiments. In a realistic simulation study, we show that MR-BMA can detect true causal risk factors even when the candidate risk factors are highly correlated. We illustrate MR-BMA by analysing publicly-available summarized data on metabolites to prioritise likely causal biomarkers for age-related macular degeneration. Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) extends the standard MR framework to consider multiple risk factors in a single model. Here, Zuber et al. propose MR-BMA, a Bayesian variable selection approach to identify the likely causal determinants of a disease from many candidate risk factors as for example high-throughput data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and human activities are considered to be the most likely reasons for negative trends in river inflow and the water level of some lakes and wetlands in the world. To quantify the uncertain impacts of climate variations and anthropogenic activities on Ajichay River flow in Iran, a multi-model ensemble approach based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is applied. Several statistical and simulation-based methods are used to distinguish the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on river flow. The results show that almost all the methods identified human activities as the dominant impact on streamflow (about 73–85% of the change). The between-model and within-model uncertainty analyses using BMA showed that the 95% uncertainty intervals of the individual approaches have relatively large deviation ranges. The BMA mean prediction could reduce the range of between-model uncertainties to 14–27% for climate impacts and 74–80% for human impacts. This approach provides a way to better understand the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on river flow change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the ruling in Y [2018], the UK Supreme Court has confirmed that there is no general requirement for the courts in England and Wales to authorise the withdrawal of clinically assisted nutrition and hydration from patients with prolonged disorders of consciousness. The perceived requirement, which originated in a court ruling in 1993, encompassed those in the vegetative state and those in the minimally conscious state. The ruling in Y confirms that the court may still be approached to decide difficult or contested cases, but there is otherwise no routine requirement that the judges be approached.Main Body: There is much to welcome in this ruling, particularly as it means that these decisions for these patients are no longer (unusually) singled out for a judicial decision, with all the financial and emotional costs that court proceedings can entail. However, there is also a risk that the ruling might have unwelcome consequences. First, there is the possibility that patients might die too soon, particularly if doctors should now adopt the courts' previous reasoning, which has suggested that patients in the vegetative state lack interests, so treatment may - perhaps must - be withdrawn. Secondly, there is the converse possibility that patients might live too long, since empirical research suggests that - whether intentionally or not - patients' families, clinicians, and the health system appear to promote treatment-by-default.Conclusion: Rather than adopt general positions, which may be contestable and potentially risky, this article argues, on a pluralistic basis, that the individual patient should be the focus of any decision made in his or her 'best interests'. The existing legal framework in England and Wales, which is provided by the Mental Capacity Act 2005, already points in this direction, although more efforts may be needed to ensure that those involved in making these decisions are suitably educated and supported. Fortunately, new guidance from the British Medical Association could help clinicians and families to make decisions in the future, which are appropriate for the incapacitated individual patient in question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A benzylureido-β-cyclodextrin was synthesized by the reaction of 6-amino-β-cyclodextrin with an active benzyl isocyanate. Then, it was bonded to silica gel by a thiol-ene addition reaction, obtaining a new benzylureido-β-cyclodextrin-based chiral stationary phase (BzCDP). Its chemical structure was characterized by infrared spectroscopy, elemental analysis, and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The BzCDP was successfully used to separate phenylmercapturic acid (PMA) and benzylmercapturic acid (BMA) enantiomers, which were confirmed as biomarkers of exposure to benzene and toluene in human urine. The enantiomeric separations were also optimized through the investigation of related factors. The resolutions of PMA and BMA enantiomers could be up to 2.25 and 2.14, respectively, within 30 min under reversed-phase chromatography. Based on the optimal chromatographic and mass spectrometry conditions, a new LC-MS/MS quantitative method for the PMA and BMA enantiomers was established by negative ion multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) and an isotope-labeled PMA (d2-PMA) as an internal standard. The limits of detection (LODs) of enantiomers were less than 0.17 μg/L for PMA and 0.14 μg/L for BMA, and the averaged recoveries of enantiomers were in the range of 86~100% for PMA and 86~113% for BMA. The method had good reproducibility levels with the RSDs (3.5~11.3% for intra-day and 3.9~13.1% for inter-day). The method was successfully applied to urine testing of 60 painting and printing workers. The results showed that only L-PMA was detected in the urine of the Printers, while a high content of L-PMA (27.5~106 μg/L) and D-PMA (19.9~82.8 μg/L) can be detected simultaneously in the urine of the Painters, indicating that benzene pollution was more serious in this group. The positive rate of BMA was rather higher, indicating that toluene pollution was more common than benzene. BMA also existed in the form of two enantiomers (L-BMA and D-BMA), but the difference between the two types of occupational groups was small. It is a meaningful work to deeply study the existence and content of chiral markers in human urine, which will help to better understand and evaluate the harmful effects of benzene series on human beings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the results of the election of voting members of the British Medical Association council in Great Britain for the year 1986-87. Data on the election in each region; List of officers elected; Number of voting papers issued nad valid papers returned.

The author presents his views on a joint meeting of the Royal Society of Medicine and the British Medical Association related to No Fault Compensation scheme held on January 12-13, 1989. The scheme abandons the rule that a patient has to show negligence in medical care for demanding the compensation. He comments on the disadvantages of such funding schemes.

The article discusses the Family Doctor Charter of the National Health Service in Great Britain that was enacted in 1966. It revitalised the discipline after a period of stagnation and ushered in a golden age of general practice. It outlines the Gillie Report of 1963 that described general practice as a cottage industry and outlines the recommendations agreed by the Central Health Services Committee with the British Medical Association (BMA).

Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff orwater level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-arthydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with meteorologicalensemble forecasts. Hence, biases and dispersion errors of the meteorological forecastscascade down to the hydrological predictions and add to the errors of the hydrologicalmodels. The systematic parts of these errors can be reduced by applying statisticalpost-processing. For a sound estimation of predictive uncertainty and an optimalcorrection of systematic errors, statistical post-processing methods should be tailoredto the particular forecast variable at hand. Former studies have shown that it canmake sense to treat hydrological quantities as bounded variables. In this paper adoubly truncated Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method [1] is introduced, whichgeneralizes the truncated normal BMA model for wind speed calibration [2]. Theproposed approach allows for flexible post-processing of multi-model ensembleforecasts of water level. A case study based on water level for a gauge of riverRhine, reveals a good predictive skill of doubly truncated BMA compared both tothe raw ensemble and the reference ensemble model output statistics approach[3]. References [1] Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M. (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1155–1174. [2] Baran, S. (2014) Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using Bayesian model averaging with truncated normal components. Comput. Stat. Data. Anal. 75, 227–238. [3] Hemri, S. and Klein, B. (2017) Analog based post-processing of navigation-related hydrological ensemble forecasts. Water Resour. Res. 53, 9059–9077. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the first five of the 24 recommendations that outline the British Medical Association (BMA) proposals for the high-level governance of the British National Health Service (NHS). These include a recommendation which suggests that a constitution for the NHS should settle an agreement between the government, the NHS and the public. Another implies that an independent board of governors must be established in order to divide national politics from day-to-day running of the NHS.

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products are widely utilized for streamflow simulation, which is one critical hydrological application, especially for ungauged regions. Possible ways to improve streamflow simulation are investigated in this study by merging multi-source precipitation products, or directly merging streamflow simulated with different precipitation products. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (3B42 Version 7) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and one reanalysis precipitation product, National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) are selected. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to merge multi-source precipitation estimates and streamflow simulations. The results show that merging multi-source precipitation products made little difference to improve streamflow simulation. Merging multi-source streamflow simulations using the BMA generally achieved better performance on streamflow simulation, indicating that this approach is more efficient than merging multi-source precipitation products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation is an important and difficult climate variable to predict. Skillful sub-seasonal precipitation forecast can provide useful information for agriculture and water resources management communities. Nevertheless, sub-seasonal forecasts have been given less attention compared with forecasts of shorter/longer time horizons. Recently, the S2S database has made sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts/reforecasts from 11 operational centers available to researchers. In this work, reforecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) spanning over a 20-year period were evaluated. Raw and post-processed precipitation forecasts were put against observed precipitation series of a number of synoptic stations with different precipitation regimes for all months of the year. By comparison, precipitation forecasts were more skillful in wet months. Raw forecasts in December and February were better than that in other months, while the weakest results were detected in August. There was no significant relationship between precipitation regime and prediction skill. Furthermore, quantile mapping (QM), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and QM_BMA combination were adopted for post-processing. BMA outperformed QM and QM_BMA through improving the correlation coefficient between observations and average of ensemble forecasts; however, BMA performed weaker in other evaluation criteria, in particular in humid regions. It is concluded that the application of post-processing techniques greatly improved the results of ensemble precipitation forecasts. However, in a number of stations/months, the forecast results were not acceptable even after post-processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed 2005–2017 data sets on ozone (O3) concentrations in an area (the Vic Plain) frequently affected by the atmospheric plume northward transport of the Barcelona metropolitan area (BMA), the atmospheric basin of Spain recording the highest number of exceedances of the hourly O3 information threshold (180 µ g m -3). We aimed at evaluating the potential benefits of implementing local-BMA short-term measures to abate emissions of precursors. To this end, we analyzed in detail spatial and time variations of concentration of O3 and nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2 , including OMI remote sensing data for the latter). Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is done with the air quality (AQ) data to evaluate potential O3 reductions in the north of the BMA on Sundays compared with weekdays as a consequence of the reduction in regional emissions of precursors. The results showed a generalized decreasing trend for regional background O3 as well as the well-known increase in urban O3 and higher urban NO decreasing slopes compared with those of NO2. The most intensive O3 episodes in the Vic Plain are caused by (i) a relatively high regional background O3 (due to a mix of continental, hemispheric–tropospheric and stratospheric contributions); by (ii) intensive surface fumigation from mid-troposphere high O3 upper layers arising from the concatenation of the vertical recirculation of air masses; but also by (iii) an important O3 contribution from the northward transport/channeling of the pollution plume from the BMA. The high relevance of the local-daily O3 contribution during the most intense pollution episodes is clearly supported by the O3 (surface concentration) and NO2 (OMI data) data analysis. A maximum decrease potential (by applying short-term measures to abate emissions of O3 precursors) of 49 µ g O3 m -3 (32 %) of the average diurnal concentrations was determined. Structurally implemented measures, instead of episodically, could result in important additional O3 decreases because not only the local O3 coming from the BMA plume would be reduced, but also the recirculated O3 and thus the intensity of O3 fumigation in the plain. Therefore, it is highly probable that both structural and episodic measures to abate NOx and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the BMA would result in evident reductions of O3 in the Vic Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1970 the medical associations of South Africa and Rhodesia (now, Zimbabwe) were expelled from the Commonwealth Medical Association. The latter had been set up, as the British Medical Commonwealth Medical Conference, in the late 1940s by the British Medical Association (BMA). These expulsions, and the events leading up to them, are the central focus of this article. The BMA's original intention was to establish an organisation bringing together the medical associations of the constituent parts of the expanding Commonwealth. Among the new body's preoccupations was the relationship between the medical profession and the state in the associations' respective countries. It thus has to be seen as primarily a medico-political organisation rather than one concerned with medicine per se. Although, there were also tensions from the outset regarding the membership of the Southern African medical associations. Such stresses notwithstanding, these two organisations remained in the BMA-sponsored body even after South Africa and Rhodesia had left the Commonwealth. This was not, however, a situation which could outlast the growing number of African associations which joined in the wake of decolonisation; and hardening attitudes towards apartheid. The article therefore considers: why the BMA set up this Commonwealth body in the first place and what it hoped to achieve; the history of the problems associated with South African and Rhodesian membership; and how their associations came to be expelled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the position of the British Medical Association (BMA) on the issue of abortion time limits in Great Britain. Motion debated by BMA; Developments in medicine on which supporters of the motion focused; Reason behind the option of women for abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

Background Obesity is a top-priority global health issue; however, a clear way to address obesity in primary care is not yet in view. Aim To conduct a meta-ethnography of patient and primary care practitioner perspectives of roles and responsibilities in how to address obesity in the UK, to inform evidence-based services that are acceptable to, and appropriate for, patients and practitioners. Design and setting Qualitative synthesis applying metaethnographic methods according to the Noblit and Hare monograph. Database searches in MEDLINE®, Social Sciences Citation Index®, CINAHL, and Health Management Information Consortium were limited to 1997-2012 to examine recent perspectives. Method Full articles of practitioner and/or patient perspectives on obesity services in primary care were reviewed, and included semi-structured or unstructured interviews and focus groups, and participant observations. Results Nine studies were synthesised with perspectives from patients (n = 105) and practitioners (n = 144). Practitioners believe that patients are responsible for obesity, and that primary care should not help, or is poorly equipped to do so. Patients 'take responsibility' by 'blaming' themselves, but feel that practitioners should demonstrate more leadership. The empowerment of patients to access health services is reliant on the empowerment of practitioners to take an unambiguous position. Conclusion Primary care has the potential either to perpetuate or counter obesity-related stigma. There needs to be a firm decision as to what role primary care will take in the prevention and treatment of obesity. To remain ambiguous runs the risk of losing patients' confidence and adding to a growing sense of futility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]