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Purpose: After three decades of development, the Chinese electric vehicle industry became the world's largest electric vehicle market in 2015. However, little is understood about how the Chinese electric vehicle industry, as a latecomer in this strategic newly emerged industry, could catch up with international incumbents. The purpose of this paper is to study how the windows of opportunity emerge and interactively influence the catch-up process of Chinese electric vehicle industry. Design/methodology/approach: This paper conducted a case study to examine how Chinese electric vehicle latecomers use the windows of opportunity along with the development of a sectoral system of innovation to reduce the gaps. Findings: The results indicate that windows of opportunity appeared in the introduction stage (2005) and the transition from the introduction stage to the growth stage (2015) because of the sectoral changes in technologies, demand, policies and the interaction among these factors. Domestic electric vehicle latecomers currently follow the catch-up pattern of duplication, creative imitation and innovation. Practical implications: To capture the previous windows of opportunity, domestic electric vehicle latecomers rely on technology transfer through international joint ventures, government support and local advantages from cheap labor. To seize future windows of opportunity, apart from progressively accumulating innovation capabilities, it is also essential for managers to recognize, break through and extend the windows of opportunity by anticipating and monitoring the process of changes of the sectoral system. Originality/value: This paper provides a fine-grained study on how latecomers in a new industry with emerging markets can seize windows of opportunities to catch up with the international leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Electric Vehicles (EVs) are considered to be a potential viable technology to address the persistent unsustainable problems in transport sector. In this paper, we focus on analyzing the transition processes of EVs in China because the sustainability of developing countries is essential for the worldwide sustainability. The two-round demonstration programs of EVs in China were analyzed by adopting the strategic niche management (SNM) approach so as to find out what niche protection has been provided and which obstacles hamper the further development of EVs. The results show that the financial subsidy is the most important protective measure. However, the diffusion results of EVs in different pilot cities are greatly different. The main reason lies in the uneven geographical landscape. In addition, some obstacles were exposed during the niche internal processes including low quality of expectations and poor alignment within the network. Based on the analysis results, we develop a list of suggestions that are important to consider when developing EVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of electric vehicles has attracted growing attention and is now seen as a possible pathway for a transition towards sustainable transportation. This paper provides insight into the commercialization of electric vehicles in Shenzhen focusing on business innovation and the regulatory context in which it occurs. Using the business model canvas framework, this paper analyzes interactions between enterprises and governments along the value chain of electric vehicles in the bus and taxi fleets. It also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the Shenzhen model both in business innovation and government regulation for promoting electric vehicle use. This paper finds that Shenzhen has succeeded in fostering a distinct government-enterprise cooperation model that not only reduces the financial pressure on the local government to promote electric vehicle use, but also gives enterprises significant leeway to experiment with various innovative business models. The joint result of these efforts is that the commercialization of electric vehicles has become feasible for delivering the public transport service (buses and taxis) in Shenzhen. Still, this paper argues that the current model of Shenzhen can be further enhanced by: 1) encouraging private investment in charging infrastructures by means of public–private-partnerships; and 2) standardizing electric-vehicle technologies and production to break down the local protectionism in the electric vehicle market. The Shenzhen model acts as a source of inspiration by pointing out the significance of integrating business innovations and government regulations to facilitate the deployment of electric vehicles, which provides practical lessons for industrial players and policy makers in other cities. Furthermore, this work offers theoretical references regarding the application of the multi-actor perspective and the business model canvas framework to analyze the actors and interactions along the value chain of innovative technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how the technological ecosystem extension facilitates the technology substitution in an emerging industry. Specifically, this paper has three findings: 1) the technological ecosystem with an expanded scope including supply, demand and intermediaries; 2) two type of ecosystem extension as the bottom-up and top-down ecosystem extension; 3) the determinants of sustaining the ecosystem extension. We have conducted in-depth interviews in the Chinese low-speed electric vehicle industry, which adopted the bottom-up ecosystem extension by comparing with the traditional car industry with top-down ecosystem extension to the emerging EV industry. This paper also offers managerial implications to the focal firms and policy makers to capture the emerging opportunities within an ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The adoption of electric vehicles is key to lowering the consumption of fossil fuels and emission of greenhouse gases. Cross-national surveys studying citizens' purchase intentions regarding electric vehicles (EVs) remain limited, especially when it comes to combining individual micro-level factors and contextual macro-level forces. Based on a cross-national dataset with 2806 respondents from China (n = 1078), Brazil (n = 929), and Russia (n = 799), this study analyzes variations and determinants of purchase intentions for EVs in these three countries. The survey results indicate that purchase intentions for EVs among Chinese citizens is higher than amongst Brazilian and Russian citizens. The purchasing intention of citizens in all three countries is especially high for people who have a wide social network, and if they already know somebody with an EV. Other macro-level factors, including pollution and charging infrastructure, only impact on purchasing intention in Brazil, while government policy initiatives for EVs seem to have limited effects in all three countries. Micro-level factors, such as age and education, do not have any statistically significant effect in Russia and Brazil, and only a weak effect in China. Based on these results, we provide recommendations for business and policy makers who need to anticipate citizens' demand for EVs and design policies suitable to accelerate the adoption of sustainable transport solutions. Highlights • This paper analyzes EV purchase intentions in China, Brazil and Russia. • Electric vehicle purchase intentions among Chinese citizens are highest. • Purchase intentions of citizens are high if they have a wide social network. • Purchase intentions of citizens are high if they know somebody with an EV. • Government policy for EVs seem to have limited effects in all three countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electric vehicle (EV) industry was selected as a national priority in Made in China 2025 (MIC2025) industrial strategy and has benefitted, as such, from all the attention and support provided by the Chinese state. The development of this industry presented itself as a solution by which China could eventually outperform the West in the global car market, where it couldn’t manage to assert itself in spite of all the efforts made, because it had never been able to master well enough the internal combustion engine technology and its complex fine tuning. This paper looks at China’s progress in the emerging purview of the EV industry –which builds upon a newer, but simpler and more easily replicable technology –, keeping track of Chinese domestic market developments, in terms of supply, demand, prices, local actors, market segments and specifics and providing, at the same time, a brief view on the accomplishments attained, as well as on the risks and challenges China still has to overcome, in its race for global dominance in this field.

This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO 2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down-type Environmental Input–Output (EI–O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO 2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO 2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO 2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7870 Mt CO 2 ) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal-based electricity, helps reduce CO 2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO 2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO 2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles have great potential in dramatically reducing environmental pollution, which has become an important strategic direction for future sustainable development. With the influence of policy support and market, the construction of new energy supply infrastructure in China has achieved remarkable outcomes. However, according to the actual use of the new energy supply facilities, there is still a severe imbalance between long queues and unattended charging stations in some areas. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a fuzzy demand-profit model to accurately optimize new energy supply from the perspective of the three-level service chain. Then, based on authoritative historical sales data of electric vehicles in China in 2011–2018, the model is used to analyze the fuzzy demand for electric vehicle charging capacity. The research results indicate that the fuzzy demand-profit model is an effective tool to promote the coordination of new energy supply, which will provide support for the sustainable development of electric vehicles in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 2000s, the Chinese government has been adopting active industrial policies to create a market for electric vehicles. While celebrated as a success nationally and internationally, a closer look reveals a mixed picture with market growth concentrated in only a few cities. On the basis of heterodox industrial policy literature, Chinese-language policy documents and interviews, we develop an analytical framework to empirically study electric vehicles deployment at the city-level, and to assess the achievements and obstacles of implementing industrial policies in this sector. We particularly stress the interrelatedness of policies governing the demand structure of the electric vehicles market and its main complementary sector, the charging infrastructure, which need to be aligned in the progressively more complex segments making up the electric vehicles market. Taking this industry as a case study, we contribute to the wider debate on the determinants of industrial policy effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates different scenarios for electric vehicle (EV) deployment in China and explores the implications thereof with regard to energy portfolio, economics and the environment. Specifically, we investigate how to better deliver the value of EVs by improving designs in the power system and charging strategies, given expected developments by 2030 in both the power system and EV penetration levels. The impact of EV charging is quantified by applying an integrated transportation-power system model on a set of scenarios which represent uncertainties in charging strategies. We find that deploying EVs essentially shifts the use of gasoline to coal-fired power generation in China, thus leading to more coal consumption and CO 2 emissions of the power system. Economically, EVs outperform gasoline-powered vehicles in terms of average fueling costs. However, the impact of EVs in terms of CO 2 emissions at the national level largely depends on the charging strategy. Specifically, controlled charging results in more CO 2 emissions associated with EVs than uncontrolled charging, as it tends to feed EVs with electricity produced by cheap yet low-efficiency coal power plants located in regions where coal prices are low. Still, compared with uncontrolled charging, controlled charging shows absolute advantages in: (1) mitigating the peak load arising from EV charging; (2) facilitating RES generation; and (3) reducing generation costs and EV charging costs. Hence, in light of this trade-off of controlled charging with the goals of energy security, economic efficiency and reducing environmental impacts, policy interventions in the Chinese power system should opt for controlled charging strategies in order to best realize the benefits of EVs. Accordingly, this paper proposes that increasing the use of cleaner forms of electricity generation, such as RES power and gas power, and establishing energy efficiency and CO 2 emission regulations in power dispatch are critical for China. Lastly, this work illustrates what the optimized charging profiles from the power system perspective look like for different regions. These results can inform Chinese policy makers in creating a better integration of the transportation and the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a stochastic model to quantify the impact of the electric vehicle (EV) on China’s electricity load profiles. Most of the existing literature utilized travel data to model EV charging behavior and ignored the influence of people’s social attributes that are significant for the accuracy of EV charging behavior. Based on the dataset of the national household travel survey, the most significant influencing factors, e.g. age, location, and weekday/weekend, are identified. Markov-chain is used to construct a sequence of destinations of each vehicle trip, depending on EV’s driver, day of the week, and time of day. Vehicle-driven distance, driving time, and parking duration are used to model electricity demand and potential EV charging flexibility. The charging infrastructure accessibility in a certain parking location has an influence on EV charging decisions. The model’s outputs are used to assess the impacts of various EV charging strategies on electricity load profiles on a national scale. It is found that at 60% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs by 2050, the electricity demand of EV will be 510 TWh, accounting for 4.5% of the national demand in 2050. The national peak loads will further increase by 8.2% under the unmanaged charging strategy of EV. In contrast, implying last-minute charging strategy only increases peak demand by 2.6% relative to the unmanaged charging strategy.

In the backdrop of growing public concerns about climate change and air pollution, and the contribution of petroleum combustion in the transport sector to these issues, China has introduced a range of policy incentives for promoting the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). These incentives have resulted in a rapid increase in EV stocks since the early 2010s, and this trend is expected to continue, or even accelerate, in the years to come, which would, in turn, lead to a policy-oriented EV market. The primary objective of the project is to develop an understanding of the effect of various policy incentives on EV uptake based on annual data of 43 cities from 2011 to 2017, and these policies mainly refer to those that focus on EV purchasing, registering, driving, and charging stages. The novelty of this paper is that we focused on policy effect on EV adoption behavior, rather than adoption intention which has widely been analyzed in previous studies. Results showed that the abolishment of purchasing and driving restriction, government subsidies, purchase tax exemption, and dedicated license plates significantly promote EV diffusion, and the effect of the two restrictions are more powerful. Thus, this study suggested that abolishment of purchasing and driving restrictions can be insisted to drive EV market share, meanwhile improving policies that can guide consumers through various motivations are also necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the phasing down of subsidies, China has launched the new energy vehicle (NEV) credit regulation to continuously promote the penetration of electric vehicles. The two policies will coexist through 2020 and definitely pose a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and even the global electric vehicle market. However, few studies have systematically investigated the relationship between the two policies as well as the synergistic impacts during the overlap period. This paper interprets the rationales of China's subsidy policy and NEV credit regulation and establishes a bottom-up model to estimate the synergistic impacts of the two policies on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from the perspective of credit cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the subsidy policy still maintains strong support for the development of electric vehicles in China. For small BEVs whose driving ranges are higher than 300 km, subsidies even account for 40–50% of the manufacturing cost. In addition, we conclude that the two policies will complement each other in the transitional period and small BEVs are preferred by both policies. Under the NEV credit regulation, 350 km will consistently be the optimal driving range, which will definitely limit the development of other ranges. With the addition of the subsidy, the limitation will be amended in the short run. However, the effect of the subsidy is decreasing and is going to be canceled after 2020, so the focus should be on the optimization of the NEV credit regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Study the optimization of the EV incentive policy mixes at city level. • Residential preference heterogeneity has been examined in the research. • A stated preference experiment is conducted in the EV pilot cities. • Cities are grouped into three clusters by the compositions of the preference segments. • Demand-side EV policy mixes are tailored for the three city groups. The large-scale diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) helps pave the way towards carbon peak and neutrality goals, while it is affected by the governmental incentive policies at different levels. This paper studies the optimization of demand-side policy mixes from the perspective of residential preference heterogeneity with 18 EV pilot cities in China as the case. A latent class model is used to investigate urban residents' preferences for demand-side policies and characterization of urban heterogeneities of the preferences. Valid survey data from 1455 respondents were collected from a stated preference experiment, which segmented urban residents into a "policy-sensitive" group (8.25% of the sample), "policy-indifferent" group (27.97%), and "policy-cognitive" group according to their preferences. The 18 pilot cities were grouped into three clusters according to the different compositions of the preference segments. Our analysis shows that it may not be necessary for the municipal governments to provide subsidies for the installations of home chargers currently. Besides, different optimized policy mixes of bus lane access privileges, replacement subsidies, toll discounts, and preferential parking fees for charging were proposed for the three clusters of cities. Our research paradigm applies to cities in other countries that need to optimize EV policy mixes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to commercialize green vehicles by the Chinese government have been met with surprisingly subdued consumer responses and with sales targets that fall far short to targets. This paper examines the barriers to the adoption of green vehicles in China from a consumer perspective, focusing on battery-only vehicles (BEVs). A web-based survey was conducted to solicit views from Chinese residents in November 2012. The results indicated that although the majority of respondents expressed interests in BEVs and agreed that BEVs were good for the environment and were cheaper to run, many respondents expressed concerns over them being inconvenient to charge, long charging times, limited battery longevity, limited vehicle range and high price. The greatest barrier was inconvenience to charge. The results also show that the level of interest, perception, and demands are significantly influenced by gender, age, income, education, and car ownership status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Renewable energy is one of the possible solutions when addressing climate change. Today, large-scale renewable energy integration needs to include the experience to balance the discrepancy between electricity demand and supply. The electrification of transportation may have the potential to deal with this imbalance and to reduce its high dependence on oil production. For this reason, it is interesting to analyse the extent to which transport electrification can further the renewable energy integration. This paper quantifies this issue in Inner Mongolia, where the share of wind power in the electricity supply was 6.5% in 2009 and which has the plan to develop large-scale wind power. The results show that electric vehicles (EVs) have the ability to balance the electricity demand and supply and to further the wind power integration. In the best case, the energy system with EV can increase wind power integration by 8%. The application of EVs benefits from saving both energy system cost and fuel cost. However, the negative consequences of decreasing energy system efficiency and increasing the CO2 emission should be noted when applying the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). The results also indicate that developing renewable energy is crucial for transportation electrification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Electric vehicles are developing quickly in China. Based on the expert interview, the current status, development trends, possible paths and related policy recommendations of the electric vehicle technology in China are discussed in this paper. It is found that there are some bottleneck problems for the electric vehicle development and some promotion policies should be taken in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Micro-grid can be used as a supplement to power supply of large power grids. Combined with smart park, users can easily manage the micro-grid. In the tourist scenic area, the local distributed new energy is mainly used to provide energy for the system. The micro-grid control system as the core of the system controls the optimal operation of the entire smart park. In order to ensure the efficient operation of the entire system, the energy management system is needed for smart control and automatic scheduling. In the grid-connected mode, the main-grid complements the system energy and charges the park energy storage device. In the island mode, the distributed energy is fully used to provide energy for the smart park system. The energy power fluctuates greatly, and the energy management system needs to schedule the micro-grid energy, energy storage system, electric vehicle load and so on, and power quality needs to be monitored. Use of micro-grid control system in the smart parking deploying photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, charging and exchanging devices and other devices, real-time monitoring of the park of cars, charging cars automatically complete charging, automatic processing of visitor cars into and out of smart park, and improve work efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition from conventional vehicles (CVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) could be promising in tackling environmental challenges in China. Using a sample of 1216 respondents in Beijing, China, our study intends to understand the underlying factors that drive the decision to purchase an EV among potential Chinese vehicle purchasers. We built two choice models to estimate vehicle purchase behavior and fuel choice. We found that males and having higher household income are associated with greater intention to purchase EVs (both plug-in and battery electric vehicles). However, a previous inclination to choose CV negatively impacted willingness to buy EVs. Between specific EV types, we found that Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) purchase was negatively associated with plans to obtain a driver's license within three years and longer durations of having owned a motorized vehicle first. Yet, the number of electric bicycles in the household was positively associated with PHEV-purchase likelihood. For Battery EVs (BEV), we found that respondents who had previous experience with an EV (either as a driver or passenger) were more likely to purchase a BEV while existing ownership of a driver's license and a higher purchase budget reduced such possibility. Based on our findings, we recommend authorities continue to, or increasingly, provide direct monetary incentives to purchase EVs, and to provide EV driving and riding experience to customers, especially who are in the middle- and low-income vehicle purchasing groups, to improve the Chinese EV market relative to CVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the emission status and predict the future trends of heavy-duty diesel passenger buses in Hainan Province, the technical level distribution, activity characteristics, and operating conditions of heavy-duty diesel passenger buses were statistically analyzed. The emissions of CO, CO2, NOX, and PM of the province's heavy-duty diesel passenger buses in 2017 were calculated by the COPERT model. The Portable Emission Measurement System was applied to the calibration of emission factors calculated by the model to improve the accuracy of emission predictions. The prediction of emission trends sets three different scenarios: baseline scenarios (BAS), emission reduction standard scenario (ERS), and emission reduction standard and replacement by electric vehicle scenario (ERS and REV). The gray model was used to predict the number of heavy-duty diesel passenger buses in the three scenarios and combined with the calibrated emission factors to predict the emission trends under different scenarios. Results show that the ERS will reduce CO, CO2, NOX, and PM emissions by approximately 23%, 12%, 23%, and 46% respectively, in 2025 compared with BAS. ERS and REV will reduce CO, CO2, NOX, and PM emissions by approximately 38%, 33%, 38%, and 50% for the three emissions, compared with the BAS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]