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Spatial information on inundation dynamics is expected to improve greenhouse gas estimates in climate models. Satellite data can provide land cover information from local to global scale. The detection capability for dynamics is however limited. Cloud cover and daylight independent methods are required for frequent updates. Suitable are therefore sensors which make use of microwaves. The purpose of the present study is to assess such data for determination of wetland dynamics from the viewpoint of use in climate models of the boreal and tundra environments. The focus is on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) operating in C-band due to, among microwave systems, comparably good spatial resolution and data availability. Continuity is also expected for such systems. Simple classification algorithms can be applied to detect open water in an automatised way allowing the processing of time series. Such approaches are robust when the water surface is smooth. C-band data from ENVISAT ASAR (Advanced SAR) operating in wide swath mode (150m resolution) have been investigated for implementation of an automated detection procedure of open water fraction. More than 4000 samples (single acquisitions tiled into 0.5 degree grid cells) have been analysed for July/August 2007 and 2008. Modification of input parameters results in differences below 1% open water fraction. The actual challenge is the frequent occurrence of waves due to wind and precipitation. This reduces the separability of the water class from other land cover. The possible update intervals for surface water extent are therefore decreased considerably. Statistical measures of the backscatter distribution can be applied in order to retrieve the for classification suitable data. The Pearson correlation between each sample dataset and a location specific representation of the bimodal distribution has been used for assessment. On average only 40% of acquisitions allow a separation of the open water class. Satellite data are available every 2-3 days over the Western Siberian study region. With respect to the irregular acquisition intervals and varying length of unsuitable weather periods a minimum update interval of 10 days is suggested for the Northern Eurasian test case. Although SAR data availability is currently constraint future satellite missions which aim for operational services such as Sentinel-1 with its C-band SAR instrument may provide the basis for inundation monitoring in support of climate modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual) rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment applying increased growing season rainfall variability and year round warming in native perennial grassland. During ten years of study, total growing season rainfall varied 2-fold, and we found ~50-200% interannual variability in plant growth and aboveground net primary productivity, leaf carbon assimilation (ACO2), and soil CO2 efflux (JCO2) despite only ~40% variation in mean volumetric soil water content (0-15 cm, Θ15). Interannual variation in soil moisture was thus amplified in most measures of ecosystem response. Differences between years in Θ15 explained the greatest portion (14-52%) of the variation in these processes. Experimentally increased intra-annual rainfall variability doubled the amplitude of intra-annual soil moisture variation and reduced Θ15 by 15%, causing most ecosystem processes to decrease 8-40% in some or all years with increased rainfall variability compared to ambient rainfall timing, suggesting reduced ecosystem rainfall use efficiency. Warming treatments increased 5 cm soil temperature, particularly during spring, fall, and winter. Warming advanced canopy green up in spring, increased winter JCO2, and reduced summer JCO2, and forb ANPP , suggesting that the effects of warming differed in cooler versus warmer parts of the year. We conclude that (1) major ecosystem processes in this grassland may be substantially altered by predicted changes in interannual climate variability, intra-annual rainfall variability, and temperature, (2) interannual climate variation was a larger source of variation in ecosystem function than intra-annual rainfall variability and warming, and (3) effects of increased growing season rainfall variability and warming were small, but ecologically important. The relative effects of these climate drivers are likely to vary for different ecosystem processes and in wetter or drier ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and climate change have increased the frequency of heavy precipitation. Heavy rainfall results in a large amount of water entering roadways within a short time period. Water remains in the pavement system for a certain time period, reduces strengths and moduli of granular bases and subgrades, and induces pavement distresses. Geotextiles are commonly used in roadways for drainage purposes, which require soil saturation. However, soil saturation does not always exist in roadways to enable gravity drainage of water by conventional geotextiles. Wicking geotextile, a new type of woven geotextile, was recently introduced to the market to remove moisture from unsaturated soils. The wicking geotextile includes special hydrophilic and hygroscopic 4 deep groove fibers with multichannel cross sections, which can induce high capillary force to wick water out of moist soil without saturation of soil. The ability and rate of this geotextile to remove water from moist soil depends on several factors, including temperature and relative humidity. In this study, a series of laboratory tests under controlled temperature and relative humidity were conducted to quantify the water removal rate of the wicking geotextile. A half length of the wicking geotextile was submerged in water tanks, and the other half was hung outside of the tanks. The water wicked from the tank into the geotextile evaporated into the air. Such tests were conducted under 12 different test conditions (i.e., different temperatures and relative humidities). Test results demonstrated that the wicking geotextile could remove water from the water tank at a certain rate. Three commonly used methods available in the literature were adopted to quantify the water removal rate of the wicking geotextile based on vapor pressure, temperature, and relative humidity. A new concept of equivalent water evaporation length of a wicking geotextile is proposed in this study. It should be pointed out that the tests presented in this paper aimed to determine the maximum water removal capacity of the geotextile given sufficient water supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Predicting precipitation changes due to climate change is of great importance for society. We propose that the present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle (for which precipitation roughly equals evaporation) predicts the spatial scale of future precipitation changes under global warming. For smaller scales than the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle, changes in precipitation could be much larger than the global mean change due to water vapor convergence contributions. However, above this scale the precipitation changes approach the relatively small global mean change. Using reanalysis data sets, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and additional numerical simulations, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change. These results suggest that changes in precipitation on the regional‐continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change. Key Points: The present‐day characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle predicts the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate changeUsing reanalysis data sets and CMIP5 models, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 kmThese results suggest that changes in precipitation on the continental scale could be much larger than the global mean change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP's precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies' preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate - fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 °C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 °C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 °C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 °C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of water required to support a river ecosystem in proper condition are of particular importance in the areas of high natural value. The hydrological threats for the protected areas are region-specific and vary from region to region. The local hydrological conditions depend largely on the temporal and spatial variations of the hydrologic cycle, of the main components and physiographic conditions on site. Future climate change is projected to have a significant impact on the hydrological regime, water resources and their quality in many parts of the world. The water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Investigating the current climate changes and their hydrological consequences are very important for hydrological issues. This analysis may be a very important foundation for determining the causes observed in the recent period of anomalous growth - both hydrological and climatic. The aim of the research is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water resources in lowland catchment the Narew River in Poland. The hydrological reaction to climate warming and wetter conditions includes changes in flow and water level. This paper describes the directions of changes climatic and hydrological conditions and the impact of climate change on the Narew River. The data such as: daily air temperature, precipitation obtained from the Bialystok climate station located within the Narew river and hydrological data such as water flows and water states observed in water gauges were used for the analysis of climate variability and their hydrological consequences. The results show a significant decrease in winter outflows in river, as well as a delayed increase in the spring melt flow. It has also been observed that this is the initial phase of changes in maximum water levels and maximum flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO2 simulation and the model’s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energybalance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34:25±5:21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85:44±4:37 and 14:98±4:61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A currently popular idea is that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be viewed as a linear deterministic system forced by noise representing processes with periods shorter than ENSO. Also, there is observational evidence to suggest that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) acts to trigger and/or amplify the warm phase of ENSO in this way. The feedback of the slower process, ENSO, to higher-frequency atmospheric phenomena, of which a large part of the variability in the intraseasonal band is due to the MJO, has received little attention. This paper considers the hypothesis that the probability of an El Niño event is modified by high MJO activity and that, in turn, the MJO is regulated by ENSO activity. If this is indeed the case, then viewing ENSO as a low-frequency oscillation forced by additive stochastic noise would not present a complete picture. This paper tests the above hypothesis using a stochastically forced intermediate coupled model by allowing ENSO to directly influence the stochastic forcing. The model response to a variety of stochastic forcing types is found to be sensitive to the type of forcing applied. When the model is operated beyond its intrinsic Hopf bifurcation, its probability distribution function (PDF) is fundamentally altered when the stochastic forcing is changed from additive to multiplicative. The model integration period also influences the shape of the PDF, which is also compared to the PDF derived from observations. It is found that multiplicative stochastic forcing reproduces some measures of the observations better than the additive stochastic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In mountain regions, important differences in the time trends of climate series can be detected even within relatively small areas, leading to uncertainty when assessing climate change. The paper deals with a structured algorithm for high-resolution downscaling of climate characterisation in a region (precipitation and temperature), leading to a twofold application: increasing spatial resolution of past climate definition for the area and attaining high-resolution downscaling for climate projections. In the first stage, multi-variate analysis ('partial least squares' regression) was applied to a number of time series (10) in order to obtain climate averages for a larger number of sites. Predictions made with single-site values (such as seasonal means) can in some cases be improved by applying 'random perturbation' of the value and averaging single predictions in the ensemble. This analysis laid the foundation for implementing the same technique to the output of statistical downscaling of multi-model climate projections. Climate shift in the study area (Trentino), located in the north-eastern Italian Alps, was simulated for two 30-year time windows: 2021-2050 and 2071-2099. Progressive warming is predicted, being stronger in the summer, along with a mixed, seasonally differentiated trend for precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 4°C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960-2008 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of ⩾ 0.1 mm d occurring under a daily minimum temperature (Tmin) of ⩽ 0°C] in the greater Beijing region (BJR), where a rapid process of urbanization has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in BJR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in BJR in the cold season (November-March). There is a slight increasing trend [1.22 mm (10 yr)] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960-2008. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm (10 yr). The warming rate of Tmin in BJR is 0.66°C (10 yr). Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by −0.67 times per °C. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast BJR (mostly urban sites) are 17%-20% less than those in the northwestern (rural and montane sites). The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern BJR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d (10 yr), respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP (<0.2 mm d) significantly decreased throughout BJR [by about 5.74% (10 yr) in the urban area and northeast BJR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2% (10 yr). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response over West Africa to uniform warming of the Atlantic Ocean is analyzed using idealized simulations with a regional climate model. With warming of 1 and 1.5 K, rainfall rates increase by 30%-50% over most of West Africa. With Atlantic warming of 2 K and higher, coastal precipitation increases but Sahel rainfall decreases substantially. This nonlinear response in Sahel rainfall is the focus of this analysis. Atlantic warming is accompanied by decreases in low-level geopotential heights in the Gulf of Guinea and in the large-scale meridional geopotential height gradient. This leads to easterly wind anomalies in the central Sahel. With Atlantic warming below 2 K, these easterly anomalies support moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and precipitation increases. With Atlantic warming over 2 K, the easterly anomalies reverse the westerly flow over the Sahel. The resulting dry air advection into the Sahel reduces precipitation. Increased low-level moisture provides moist static energy to initiate convection with Atlantic warming at 1.5 K and below, while decreased moisture and stable thermal profiles suppress convection with additional warming. In all simulations, the southerly monsoon flow onto the Guinean coast is maintained and precipitation in that region increases. The relevance of these results to the global warming problem is limited by the focus on Atlantic warming alone. However, confident prediction of climate change requires an understanding of the physical processes of change, and this paper contributes to that goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extratropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher resolution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions is shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A generalized Pareto distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased vertical velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations have indicated a trend of freshwater loss in the global western boundary current extension regions over several recent decades. In this paper, the coupled ocean--atmosphere response to the observed freshwater flux trend [[defined as evaporation minus precipitation (EmP)]] over the Kuroshio--Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is studied in a series of coupled model experiments. The model explicitly demonstrates that the positive EmP forcing in the KOE region can set up a cyclonic gyre straddling the subtropical and the subpolar gyre, which induces anomalous southward cold advection in the west and northward warm advection in the interior. This leads to the formation of a temperature dipole in the midlatitudes with a cooling in the west and a warming in the east. With the positive EmP forcing in the KOE, the response of the extratropical atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific sector is characterized by an equivalent barotropic low originating primarily from the western tropical Pacific changes and countered by the extratropical SST forcing. The positive EmP forcing also strengthens the tropical zonal SST gradient and thus ENSO through several competing processes including the surface-coupled wind--evaporative--SST (WES) mechanism, subduction of extratropical warm anomalies, and spinup of the density-driven meridional overturning circulation. Applications to recent Pacific climate changes are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly precipitation data of 42 rain stations over the Pearl River basin for 1960–2005 were analyzed to classify anomalously wet and dry conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and aridity index ( I) for the rainy season (April–September) and winter (December–February). Trends of the number of wet and dry months decided by SPI were detected with Mann-Kendall technique. Furthermore, we also investigated possible causes behind wet and dry variations by analyzing NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset. The results indicate that: (1) the Pearl River basin tends to be dryer in the rainy season and comes to be wetter in winter. However, different wetting and drying properties can be identified across the basin: west parts of the basin tend to be dryer; and southeast parts tend to be wetter; (2) the Pearl River basin is dominated by dry tendency in the rainy season and is further substantiated by aridity index ( I) variations; and (3) water vapor flux, moisture content changes in the rainy season and winter indicate different influences of moisture changes on wet and dry conditions across the Pearl River basin. Increasing moisture content gives rise to an increasing number of wet months in winter. However, no fixed relationships can be observed between moisture content changes and number of wet months in the rainy season, indicating that more than one factor can influence the dry or wet conditions of the study region. The results of this paper will be helpful for basin-scale water resource management under the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT--precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that 'the science is settled'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980–2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400–800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the analysis of the feature of Asian continent becoming cold in the early 21st century winter under the background of global warming, the Asian Warming Hole (AWH) index is proposed in this paper to measure the intensity during the cold events process. Result shows that the Asian continent is indeed experiencing a cold stage in the early 21st century winter, but it is just in a cold phase and will become warmer in the future. In recent years the activity of the winter cold events has an obvious quasi-four-year cycle, which can be reflected by atmospheric circulation, and AO (Arctic Oscillation) may play a very important role. It is credible that Asian surface temperature will be higher in the coming 3-4 years compared with 2011 winter, signifying that the precipitation may increase correspondingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change leads to the increase of frequency and intensity for extreme precipitation events, potentially threatening the development of our society. It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation for understanding cycle process of water and its response to global warming. This paper selects the Xijiang River basin, which locates on a low latitude and coastland, as the research area. The spatiotemporal distribution and homogeneity of precipitation are analyzed, and the spatial trend is studied using 12 extreme precipitation indices. Finally, chaotic characteristics are evaluated for daily precipitation. The results showed that the precipitation in the basin tended to be unevenly distributed. On wet days, precipitation in the middle and the west was more and more uniform. The proportion of tiny rain was the largest, between 33.5% and 41.3%. The proportion of violent rain was the smallest, between 0.1% and 4.7%. Duan had the highest frequency for violent rain, and the probability of disasters caused by extreme precipitation near the station was the highest. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) showed a significant increase in the middle and the northeast. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation) showed a decreasing trend in the northwest. The average rates of variation for R95PTOT (precipitation on very wet days) and R99PTOT (precipitation on extremely wet days) were −0.01 mm/year and 0.06 mm/year, respectively. There might be a risk of drought on the west of the basin in the future. Precipitation in other locations was still relatively abundant. Daily precipitation showed high dimension and high chaotic characteristics. The MED (minimum embedding dimension) was between 11 and 30, and the MLE (largest Lyapunov exponent) was between 0.037 and 0.144. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a consensus estimate of the changes in oceanic precipitation off the coast of Europe under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and three gauge and satellite-derived observational precipitation datasets are compared. While the fit between the RCMs’ simulation of current climate and the observations shows the consistency of the future-climate projections, uncertainties in both the models and the measurements need to be considered to generate a consensus estimate of the potential changes. Since oceanic precipitation is one of the factors affecting the thermohaline circulation, the feedback mechanisms of the changes in the net influx of freshwater from precipitation are relevant not only for improving oceanic-atmospheric coupled models but also to ascertain the climate signal in a global warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been found in previous studies to be a major synoptic factor affecting the climate of many regions in the high and mid-latitudes. This paper demonstrates the physical process by which the AO affects the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with a focus on precipitation in Israel as a case study. It is shown that a trend of increasing AO is associated with a substantial decrease of winter precipitation from the Iberian Peninsula, though Italy, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, as well as Lebanon, Syria and also the northern parts of Israel. Winter rain is slightly increased in the southern coast of the eastern half of the Mediterranean Sea. The immediate meteorological causes are shown to be a larger northerly component of the flow over the Mediterranean Sea, associated with a decreasing relative humidity and stability, except over the southern coast, where the air mass has the longest track over the relatively warm water. We suggest here that the observed changes in air flow that drives the precipitation trends can be explained by shifts in the AO that can be partially explained by increasing greenhouses gases. Results from the IPCC multi climate models show that the AO will continue to increase during the 21st century. This increase may lead to a continuation of the trends discussed here. The importance of the analysis provided here is in pointing out the possibility that processes that have been predicted by global warming and changes in global circulation have already started to affect precipitation and major water resources in the Mediterranean basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Snow is a major determinant of forage availability for reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus; hereafter Rangifer) in winter and is, consequently, a medium through which climate variation may influence population dynamics in this species. Periodic "icing" of winter ranges, where interludes of mild weather result in formation of crusted snow and basal ice that restrict access to forage, is held to be a cause of mass starvation, catastrophic declines in numbers, and even extirpation of local populations. It has been suggested that warming of the Arctic may result in increased frequency of winters with unfavorable snow and ice conditions, with serious consequences for Rangifer. This paper examines data on major declines in populations of Rangifer to determine the mechanism(s) of these events and the role of snow and ice conditions in them. Thirty-one declines, involving numerical decreases between 25% and 99%, were identified in 12 populations. Declines were of two types: the negative phase of irruptive oscillations, mainly associated with populations introduced into new habitat, and numerical fluctuation in persistently unstable established populations. The mechanisms of decline differed widely in both categories, ranging from wholly mortality to almost wholly emigration. In all cases, the observed dynamics are best interpreted as a product of interaction between internal processes (density dependence) and the external abiotic conditions (density independence). The strength and the form of density independence, parameterized in terms of local weather or large-scale climate, varies widely between populations, reflecting the enormous range of climate conditions across the circumpolar distribution of Rangifer. This complicates the search for abiotic components likely to be consistently important determinants of population growth in the species. There are few data demonstrating the presence of extensive hard snow or basal ice on ranges during winter(s) in which populations declined, and none confirming ice as a ubiquitous and potent agent in the dynamics of Rangifer. Instead, where the simultaneous effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors are examined across the full temporal record of dynamics, climatic conditions associated with increased amounts of snow or winter warming are generally found to enhance the abundance of animals, at least in established populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of human-induced climate change impacts arising from the emission of atmospheric chemical constituents such as carbon dioxide typically utilize multiple integrations (or ensembles) of numerous numerical climate change models to arrive at multimodel ensembles from which mean and median values and probabilities can be inferred about the response of various components of the observed climate system. Some responses are considered reliable in as much as the simulated responses show consistency within ensembles and across models. Other responses—particularly at regional levels and for certain parameters such as precipitation—show little intermodel consistency even in the sign of the projected climate changes. The authors’ results show that in these regions the consistency in the sign of projected precipitation variations is greater for intramodel runs (e.g., runs from the same model) than intermodel runs (e.g., runs from different models), indicating that knowledge of the internal “dynamics” of the climate system can provide additional skill in making projections of climate change. Given the consistency provided by the governing dynamics of the model, the authors test whether persistence from an individual model trajectory serves as a good predictor for its own behavior by the end of the twenty-first century. Results indicate that, in certain regions where intermodel consistency is low, the short-term trends of individual model trajectories do provide additional skill in making projections of long-term climate change. The climate forcing for which this forecast skill becomes relatively large (e.g., correct in 75% of the individual model runs) is equivalent to the anthropogenic climate forcing imposed over the past century, suggesting that observed changes in precipitation in these regions can provide guidance about the direction of future precipitation changes over the course of the next century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian- African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments is analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in coupled GCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian-African continental area due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño-like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and the risk of flooding. The changes, however, often differ from the theorized expectation of increases in water‐holding capacity of the atmosphere in the warmer conditions, especially when water availability is limited. Here, the relationships of changes in extreme precipitation and flood intensities for the end of the twenty-first century with spatial and seasonal water availability are quantified. Results show an intensification of extreme precipitation and flood events over all climate regions which increases as water availability increases from wet to dry regions. Similarly, there is an increase in the intensification of extreme precipitation and flood with the seasonal cycle of water availability. The connection between extreme precipitation and flood intensity changes and spatial and seasonal water availability becomes stronger as events become less extreme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses of extreme precipitation to global warming are of great importance to society and ecosystems. Although observations and climate projections indicate a general intensification of extreme precipitation with warming on global scale, there are significant variations on the regional scale, mainly due to changes in the vertical motion associated with extreme precipitation. Here, we apply quasigeostrophic diagnostics on climate-model simulations to understand the changes in vertical motion, quantifying the roles of dry (large-scale adiabatic flow) and moist (small-scale convection) dynamics in shaping the regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS). The dry component weakens in the subtropics but strengthens in the middle and high latitudes; the moist component accounts for the positive centers of EPS in the low latitudes and also contributes to the negative centers in the subtropics. A theoretical model depicts a nonlinear relationship between the diabatic heating feedback (α) and precipitable water, indicating high sensitivity of α (thus, EPS) over climatological moist regions. The model also captures the change of α due to competing effects of increases in precipitable water and dry static stability under global warming. Thus, the dry/moist decomposition provides a quantitive and intuitive explanation of the main regional features of EPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has substantial impacts on the hydrologic cycle and precipitation characteristics. This study aimed to explore variability in the form of precipitation by analysis of trends in the snowfall-day (SD)/total precipitation-day (PD) ratio across Iran. To this end, the PD and SD records were acquired from 33 synoptic stations during 1965–2014. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was the main method used for trend detection. Analyzing data exposed that the annual SD/PD ratio was less than 25% in a plethora of the stations. The MK test findings indicated downward tendencies in the SD/PD ratio over most regions of the country; although in many cases, the observed trends were not statistically significant. The changes in the annual SD/PD ratio were estimated down to − 2% per decade over ~ 70% of Iran's total area. Further studies are required to ascertain the linkages between the large-scale climate oscillations and the form of precipitation across this region. Also, using remotely sensed data (e.g., obtained from the MODIS) and fine-resolution gridded data (e.g., global and regional reanalysis data) in future research could improve the findings of such studies and dwindle the uncertainties caused by the scanty site-based observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The devastating socioeconomic impacts of recent droughts in the Western Cape have intensified the quest for future drought mitigation measures. While ongoing global warming may increase atmospheric evaporative demand and worsen drought conditions, most studies on drought in the Western Cape have overlooked the role of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present study examines the role of PET on future drought characteristics, focusing on four river catchments. Two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were analysed. The capability of the Co‐ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment simulations to reproduce the drought characteristics was evaluated by comparing present‐day climate simulations with observations. The impacts of different global warming levels (GWLs) on the SPI and SPEI projections were assessed using self‐organizing map (SOM) classifications. The results project that a robust drying signal across the Western Cape, but the magnitudes of the projections, which vary across the river catchments, increase with the GWLs. The changes in the drought intensity and frequency are weaker when using the SPI than the SPEI, suggesting that SPI projections may underestimate the influence of global warming on drought because they do not account for the influence of PET. The SOM classification confirms the differences between the two drought indices reveals the drought patterns that are not seen in the drought ensemble means. Nevertheless, the study underscores the need to mitigate future drought impacts over the Western Cape, but with careful consideration on the drought index used in characterizing the droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanisms that cause changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) precipitation amplitude under global warming are examined in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under global warming in representative concentration pathway 8.5, MJO precipitation intensifies in most models relative to current climate while MJO wind circulations increase at a slower rate or weaken. Changes in MJO precipitation intensity are partially controlled by changes in moisture profiles and static stability. The vertical moisture gradient increases in the lower half of the troposphere in response to the surface warming, while the vertical static stability gradient increases due to preferential warming in the upper troposphere. A nondimensional quantity called α has been defined that gives the efficiency of vertical advective moistening associated with diabatic processes in the free troposphere, and has been hypothesized by previous studies to regulate MJO amplitude. The term α is proportional to the vertical moisture gradient and inversely proportional to static stability. Under global warming, the increased vertical moisture gradient makes α larger in models, despite increased static stability. Although α increases in all models, MJO precipitation amplitude decreases in some models, contrary to expectations. It is demonstrated that in these models more top-heavy MJO diabatic heating with warming overwhelms the effect of increased α to make vertical moisture advection less efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mean precipitation along the U.S. West Coast exhibits a pronounced seasonality change under warming. Here we explore the characteristics of the seasonality change and investigate the underlying mechanisms, with a focus on quantifying the roles of moisture (thermodynamic) versus circulation (dynamic). The multimodel simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a simple "wet-get-wetter" response over Washington and Oregon but a sharpened seasonal cycle marked by a stronger and narrower wet season over California. Moisture budget analysis shows that changes in both regions are predominantly caused by changes in the mean moisture convergence. The thermodynamic effect due to the mass convergence of increased moisture dominates the wet-get-wetter response over Washington and Oregon. In contrast, mean zonal moisture advection due to seasonally dependent changes in land–sea moisture contrast originating from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation dominates the sharpened wet season over California. More specifically, the stronger climatological land–sea thermal contrast in winter with warmer ocean than land results in more moisture increase over ocean than land under warming and hence wet advection to California. However, in fall and spring, the future change of land–sea thermal contrast with larger warming over land than ocean induces an opposite moisture gradient and hence dry advection to California. These results have important implications for projecting changes in the hydrological cycle of the U.S. West Coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models project that extreme precipitation events will intensify in proportion to their intensity during the 21st century at large spatial scales. The identification of the causes of this phenomenon nevertheless remains tenuous. Using a large ensemble of North American regional climate simulations, we show that the more rapid intensification of more extreme events also appears as a robust feature at finer regional scales. The larger increases in more extreme events than in less extreme events are found to be primarily due to atmospheric circulation changes. Thermodynamically induced changes have relatively uniform effects across extreme events and regions. In contrast, circulation changes weaken moderate events over western interior regions of North America and enhance them elsewhere. The weakening effect decreases and even reverses for more extreme events, whereas there is further intensification over other parts of North America, creating an "intense gets intenser" pattern over most of the continent. Plain Language Summary: Climate models project that extreme precipitation events will intensify during the 21st century at large spatial scales, with several studies suggesting that the most extreme events will exhibit the highest rate of intensification. Identification of the causes of this phenomenon nevertheless remains tenuous, partly because estimating long‐term changes in precipitation extremes is difficult, particularly for precipitation extremes at impact‐relevant spatial scales. Robustly estimated changes in precipitation extremes at small spatial scales can only be obtained from large extreme precipitation data sets from large ensemble simulations. We employ a large ensemble regional climate simulation experiment performed for North America. The large volume of output from this experiment allows us to confidently obtain statistical evidence that precipitation intensification occurs more rapidly with warming for more extreme events at impact‐relevant spatial scales, and secondly, to determine the causes for this phenomenon. The effect of atmospheric moisture increases caused by greenhouse gas warming is found to be similar for extreme precipitation events of different intensities, ranging from 2‐ to 50‐year events. In contrast, atmospheric circulation change due to greenhouse gas warming tends to reduce the effect of the atmospheric moisture increases on less intense events rather than intensifying the effect on more extreme events. Key Points: More rapid increases are found in more extreme precipitation events in response to warmingThe more rapid increases in more extreme events are caused by atmospheric circulation changesThermodynamically induced changes have relatively uniform effects across extreme events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled climate system models consistently show that the low-level southerly wind associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is enhanced under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, and the enhanced EASM was attributed to the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast by previous studies. Based on a comparison of the global warming scenarios with the present-day climate in an ensemble of 30 coupled models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidence that changes in land–sea thermal contrast cannot explain the enhanced EASM circulation in terms of the seasonality. Indeed, the enhanced low-level southerly wind over East Asia is associated with a large-scale anomalous cyclone around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and numerical simulation by the Linear Baroclinic Model suggests that the enhanced latent heating over the TP associated with enhanced precipitation is responsible for this low-level cyclone anomaly and the enhanced EASM circulation projected by the coupled models. Moisture budget analysis shows that enhanced hydrological recycling and enhanced vertical moisture advection due to increased specific humidity have the largest contribution to the increased precipitation over the TP, and more than half of the intermodel uncertainty in the projected change of EASM circulation is associated with the uncertainty in the changes of precipitation over the TP. Therefore, the TP plays an essential role in enhancing the EASM circulation under global warming through enhanced latent heating over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing risk of extreme precipitation is difficult to project. Events are rare by definition, and return periods of heavy precipitation events are often calculated assuming a stationary climate. Furthermore, ensembles of climate model projections are not large enough to fully categorize the tails of the distribution. To address this, we cluster the contiguous United States into self‐similar hydroclimates to estimate changes in the expected frequency of extremely rare events under scenarios of global mean temperature change. We find that, although there is some regional variation, record events are projected in general to become more intense, with 500‐year events intensifying by 10–50% under 2 °C of warming and by 40–100% under 4 °C of warming. This analysis could provide information to inform regional prioritization of resources to improve the resilience of U.S. infrastructure. Key Points: Spatial clustering can be used to create stable projections of extreme precipitation eventsAnalysis over the United States suggests 1,000‐year events will be up to 5 times more frequent under 2 degree C warmingDifferences in projections between regions are evident, with the U.S. East Coast and mountain regions showing large intensification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global warming–induced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrowing onto the higher-latitude circulation is examined in the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 2.1 (AM2.1), run over zonally symmetric aquaplanet boundary conditions. A striking reconfiguration of the deep tropical precipitation from double-peaked, off-equatorial ascent to a single peak at the equator occurs under a globally uniform +4 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. This response is found to be highly sensitive to the SST profile used to force the model. By making small (≤1 K) perturbations to the surface temperature in the deep tropics, varying control simulation precipitation patterns with both single and double ITCZs are generated. Across the climatologies, narrower regions of ascent correspond to more equatorward Hadley cell edges and eddy-driven jets. Under the global warming perturbation, the experiments in which there is narrowing of the ITCZ show significantly less expansion of the Hadley cell and somewhat less poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet than those without ITCZ narrowing. With a narrower ITCZ, the ascending air has larger zonal momentum, causing more westerly upper-tropospheric subtropical wind. In turn, this implies 1) the subtropical jet will become baroclinically unstable at a lower latitude and 2) the critical (zero wind) line will shift equatorward, allowing midlatitude eddies to propagate farther equatorward. Both of these mechanisms modify the Hadley cell edge position, and the latter affects the jet position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of Tmax and Tmin, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in Tmean and Tmin by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in Tmax and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and changes in precipitation are altering the phenology of plants that signifi- cantly impact the functioning and services of ecosystems. Although a number of studies have addressed responses of plant phenology to warming and altered precipitation individually, their interactions can alter plant phenology differently than either does independently. To explore how the interactions between global change drivers alter alpine ecosystems, we conducted a factorial experiment manipulating warming (ambient and +2°C) and altered precipitation (50% decrease, control, and 50% increase) simultaneously in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Over two years, we monitored plant phenological events, leafout day and first flowering day, for 11 common plant species that account for 74.4% of the total above biomass. Surprisingly, there was no interaction between warming and changes in precipitation on community plant phenology, but warming advanced leaf-out and first flowering day by 7.10 and 9.79 d, respectively. Unlike the community response, plant functional groups had a variety of direct and interactive responses to the experimental climate drivers. While the phenology of legumes was most influenced by temperature, temperature and precipitation interacted to alter the phenology of grasses and forbs. To explore how plant phenological sensitivity on the Tibetan Plateau is compared with other meadow ecosystems, we combined our dataset with a global plant phenology dataset. Interestingly, the phenological sensitivity of leaf-out day and first flowering day on the Tibetan Plateau is 7.3 and 37.8 times greater than global phenological sensitivity, respectively. This result highlights that a meta-analysis of global phenological sensitivity may significantly underestimate change in some regions--even regions as large as the Tibetan Plateau. Together, our results suggest that the Tibetan Plateau may experience rapid change as temperatures warm and that these changes will likely be more rapid than in other regions of the world. Further, our study highlights that if we are to make accurate predictions of how plant phenology may change with warming, we need to understand the specific environmental cues that drive phenological responses across different areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels is important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought characteristics, including severity. By using a semiarid watershed in northern China (i.e., Wudinghe) as an example, here we show less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events emerge at 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘ C warming levels. We used meteorological forcings from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models under four representative concentration pathways, to drive a newly developed land surface hydrological model to simulate streamflow, and analyzed historical and future hydrological drought characteristics based on the standardized streamflow index. The Wudinghe watershed will reach the 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘ C warming levels around 2015–2034, 2032–2051 and 2060–2079, with an increase in precipitation of 8 %, 9 % and 18 % and runoff of 27 %, 19 % and 44 %, and a drop in hydrological drought frequency of 11 %, 26 % and 23 % as compared to the baseline period (1986–2005). However, the drought severity will rise dramatically by 184 %, 116 % and 184 %, which is mainly caused by the increased variability in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The climate models and the land surface hydrological model contribute to more than 80 % of total uncertainties in the future projection of precipitation and hydrological droughts. This study suggests that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘ C global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation extremes are expected to increase by 7% per degree of warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, this scaling behavior is inappropriate for high temperatures and short-duration precipitation extremes. Here, daily data from 702 stations during 1951–2014 and hourly data from 8 stations during 2000–15 are used to examine and explain this behavior in China. Both daily and hourly precipitation extremes exhibit an increase in temperature dependency at lower temperatures. The CC scaling transitions from positive to negative rates with temperatures greater than 25°C. Unlike the increase in daily data, which is similar to single-CC (1CC) scaling, the increase in hourly data resembles super-CC (2CC) scaling for temperatures greater than 13°C. Results show that the precipitation extremes are controlled by water vapor for a given temperature. At lower temperatures, precipitation extremes exhibit a positive linear dependence on daily actual vapor pressure whose value is almost equal to the saturated vapor pressure at a given temperature. At higher temperatures, actual vapor pressure has difficulty maintaining a consistent increasing rate because of the exponential increasing of the saturated vapor pressure. Higher temperatures result in larger vapor pressure deficits, which lead to sharp decreases in precipitation extremes. Similar scaling behaviors are obtained in 10 river basins over China, where the breaking point temperature increases from 17°C along the northwest inland area to 25°C along the southeast coast. These behaviors demonstrate that precipitation extremes are firmly linked to temperature when there is sufficient moisture at lower temperatures and limited by insufficient moisture at higher temperatures. Overall, precipitation extreme events require more attention in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A useful starting hypothesis for predictions of changes in precipitation extremes with climate is that those extremes increase at the same rate as atmospheric moisture does, which is ~7% K-1 following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This hypothesis, however, neglects potential changes in the strengths of atmospheric circulations associated with precipitation extremes. As increased moisture leads to increased precipitation, the increased latent heating may lead to stronger large-scale ascent and thus, additional increase in precipitation, leading to a super-CC scaling. This study investigates this possibility in the context of the 2015 Texas extreme precipitation event using the Column Quasi-Geostrophic (CQG) method. Analogs to this event are simulated in different climatic conditions with varying surface temperature (Ts) given the same adiabatic quasigeostrophic forcing. Precipitation in these events exhibits super-CC scaling due to the dynamic contribution associated with increasing ascent due to increased latent heating, an increase with importance that increases with Ts. The thermodynamic contribution (attributable to increasing water vapor; assuming no change in vertical motion) approximately follows CC as expected, while vertical structure changes of moisture and diabatic heating lead to negative but secondary contributions to the sensitivity, reducing the rate of increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of future floods triggered by climate change reinforced extreme precipitation upon rice production with the case study of the highly rice cultivated District of Duc Tho in the North Central Region of Vietnam. 24 hour - extreme precipitation and its recurrence interval were identified by applying Probability Weighted Moment to Generalized Extreme Value distribution using historical daily observations and output of ensemble median of eight selected GCMs. The calculation was run under RCP2.6 with low climate sensitivity (best case) and RCP8.5 with high climate sensitivity (worst case). The predicted future precipitation data was then used for flood modeling and inundation calculation using hydrological models and GIS. An integrated method taking into account flood depth, inundation duration and crop calendar was then used for potential damage calculation. The results show that under the impact of climate change, extreme precipitation and floods would be intensified, and as floods become more intensified, deeper and longer, the loss they would cause to rice production would increase significantly. The loss in 2050s under the worst case would be 30.1% and under the best case would be 10.3% greater than that in the baseline period (1986-2005). The results of this study provide valuable scientific information for policy maker in long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning to minimize potential damages of future floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming climate is expected to intensify extreme precipitation, and climate models project a general intensification of annual extreme precipitation in most regions of the globe throughout the twenty-first century. We investigate the robustness of this future intensification over land across different models, regions, and seasons and evaluate the role of model interdependencies in the CMIP5 ensemble. Strong similarities in extreme precipitation changes are found between models that share atmospheric physics, turning an ensemble of 27 models into around 14 projections. We find that future annual extreme precipitation intensity increases in the majority of models and in the majority of land grid cells, from the driest to the wettest regions, as defined by each model’s precipitation climatology. The intermodel spread is generally larger over wet than over dry regions, smaller in the dry season compared to the wet season and at the annual scale, and largely reduced in extratropical compared to tropical regions and at the global scale. For each model, the future increase in annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation amounts exceeds the range of simulated internal variability in the majority of land grid cells. At both annual and seasonal scales, however, there are a few regions where the change is still within the background climate noise, but their size and location differ between models. In extratropical regions, the signal-to-noise ratio of projected changes in extreme precipitation is particularly robust across models because of a similar change and background climate noise, whereas projected changes are less robust in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes extreme temperature and precipitation responses over the global land to five explosive tropical volcanic eruptions that occurred since the 1880s, using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in annual extreme indices during posteruption years are examined using a composite analysis. First, a robust global decrease in extreme temperature is found, which is stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from random bootstrap sampling). Intermodel correlation analysis shows a close relationship between annual extreme and mean temperature responses to volcanic forcing, indicating a similar mechanism at work. The cooling responses exhibit strong intermodel correlation with a decrease in surface humidity, consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Second, extreme and mean precipitation reductions are observed during posteruption years, especially in Northern and Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon regions, with good intermodel agreement. The precipitation decreases are also larger than the internal variability ranges and are dominated by the monsoon regions. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that most of the precipitation decrease over the monsoon regions is explained by evaporation decrease, as well as dynamic and thermodynamic contributions. Interestingly, the dynamic effect is found to have a large influence on intermodel spread in precipitation responses, with high intermodel correlation with mean and extreme precipitation changes. These model-based results are largely supported by an observational analysis based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Extremes Index 2 (HadEX2) dataset for the recent three volcanic eruptions. Our results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation extremes significantly respond to volcanic eruptions, largely resembling mean climate responses, which have important implications for geoengineering based on solar radiation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4◦C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4◦C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4◦C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5◦C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical (308N-308S) interdecadal precipitation changes and trends are explored for the satellite era using GPCP monthly analyses and CMIP5 outputs and focusing on precipitation intensity distributions represented by percentiles (Pct) and other parameters. Positive trends occur for the upper percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th), and become statistically significant for Pct ≥ 80th. Negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (;20th-65th) and are statistically significant for the 20th-40th percentiles. As part of these trends there is a decadal shift around 1998, indicating the presence of an interdecadal [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] signal. For the lower percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), positive trends occur, although weakly. The AMIP-type simulations generally show similar trend results for their respective time periods. Precipitation intensity changes are further examined using four precipitation categories based on the climatological percentiles: Wet (Pct ≥ 70th), Intermediate (70th. Pct ≥ 30th), Dry (30th. Pct ≥ 5th), and No Rain (5th . Pct ≥ 0th). Epoch differences of occurrence frequency between 1988-97 and 1998-2015 have spatial features generally reflecting the combined effect of the PDO and external forcings, specifically the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)-related warming based on comparisons with both AMIP and CMIP results. Furthermore, precipitation intensity over Wet zones shows much stronger changes than mean precipitation including a more prominent change around 1998 associated with the PDO phase shift. Trends also appear in the sizes of Intermediate and Dry zones, especially over ocean. However, changes in the sizes of Wet and No Rain zones are generally weak. AMIP simulations reproduce these changes relatively well. Comparisons with the CMIP5 historical experiments further confirm that the observed changes and trends are a combination of the effect of the PDO phase shift and the impact of anthropogenic GHG-related warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method’s performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]