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This paper positions discussion of learning designs in the broad context of reuse and repurpose. It proposes that not enough attention has been given to the "purpose" of reuse and the motivation of those who choose to share or use reusable learning resources. There is a need for both a broad and deep understanding of what occurs when designs, activities and resources with potential for reuse are encountered in practice. The paper compares two longitudinal case-based studies, one from Australia and one from the UK. The independently conceived and executed investigations shed light on what influences reuse of designs, activities, and resources. While Wills has tracked the reuse of online role play designs, activities and resources to create a deep understanding of reuse and repurposing of specific resources, Pegler has drawn on five significant UK-based case studies representing different levels of reuse-focused activity, ranging from personal to national initiatives. Mapping the two studies, both representing extensive doctoral research (Wills, 2010 and Pegler, 2011), reveals a general consistency in the factor types identified and a common focus on the influence, complexity and importance of context. In exploring academics' thresholds for reuse, Pegler proposes the concept of "zones of proximity" and Wills proposes "nuances of reuse". Both concepts highlight that reuse currently more typically occurs in close contexts. The paper points to the need for research to be directed towards understanding how to better facilitate the goal of sharing and reusing of learning designs, resources and activities, globally.

Addressing the problems of bullying in schools, this paper presents a novel and highly innovative pedagogical approach, building on the immersive power of virtual role-play. Educational role-play is widely accepted as a powerful instrument to change attitudes and behaviour, but faces some difficulties and disadvantages when applied to sensitive social issues in the classroom. This paper shows how the FearNot! software application, developed within the scope of the EU-funded projects VICTEC (Virtual ICT with Empathic Characters) and eCIRCUS (Education through Characters with emotional-Intelligence and Role-playing Capabilities that Understand Social interaction) uses virtual role-play and autonomous agents to provide children aged eight to eleven years of age with the opportunity to visit a virtual school environment populated by 3D animated synthetic characters that engage in bullying episodes. The characters' actions and the storyline are created as improvised dramas by use of emergent narrative, resulting in unscripted and highly believable interaction experiences for the learner. While the students are spectators to the bullying episodes that unfold among the FearNot! characters, the victimised character starts a conversation with the student in between the episodes, describing their experiences with bullying and how they feel as a result to it, and asking the student for advice. The aim of this approach and particularly of this interaction sequence in between the virtual bullying episodes is to sensitise primary school students to the potential problems that victims of persistent aggressive behaviour are facing: By triggering an empathic relationship between learners and characters, learners understand and vicariously feel into the plight of the victimised character. Empirical evidence from bullying research implies that bullies are regularly reinforced by bystanders that witness the bullying and turn their attention to it, but do not actively intervene to end it (Craig & Pepler 1996; Lean 1998; Salmivalli 1999; Hawkins et al. 2001). Hence, this intervention strategy targets these bystanders to stand up to the bully and help the victim, due to their heightened awareness and sensitivity to the grave consequences victims face. Preliminary evaluation results indicate that the children were willing to immerse themselves in the virtual drama and that they empathically engage with the characters, attributing a range of emotions to the characters depending on the events that happen within the respective scenario. An ongoing long-term intervention in school in the UK and Germany covers several interactions with the software over a ten week period of time.

[This paper is part of the Focused Collection on Curriculum Development: Theory into Design.] This manuscript discusses how learning theories have been applied to shape multiple aspects of the design of curricular activities combining interactive computer simulations and University of Washington style tutorials (so-called simulation-tutorials). When considering the curriculum goals (what to teach), we drew on theories of representational competence and learning with multiple representations. When considering how to teach, we drew on theories of constructivism and sketching to learn, leveraging the advantages of sketching as a constructive process that requires students to make their current understanding explicit in visual form, to make specific choices in order to make their ideas concrete, and to organize information to support deep processing. When considering when and why to sketch, we drew upon theories of representational competence, learning with multiple representations and inventing to prepare for future learning to describe six distinct purposes of sketching both prior to and while working with the simulation. This is illustrated by presenting specific sketching tasks to show how theory informed the design and the sequencing of the tasks. We followed a design-based research method, working at two institutions in two countries and with multiple cohorts of students to understand, and where necessary improve, the design of these activities, primarily basing our decisions on the sketches that students had created. The key message of this research is that the design and sequencing of sketching tasks needs to be carefully matched to the pedagogical rationale and that theory can shape these decisions in many ways.

This paper describes and discusses a case study of postgraduate students undertaking accident investigation and risk assessment exercises in an online virtual world as part of their course curriculum. These exercises were constructed to overcome the ethical and practical barriers inherent in real-world exercises. In particular this paper focusses upon the potential of such exercises to facilitate the authentic dimension of situated learning and identifies some of the factors that affect the sense of authenticity in virtual world learning exercises. Thirteen such factors were identified. Nine of those were positive factors that enhanced the sense of authenticity; these were facilitation, presence and authority, visual realism, socialisation, comparative reality, engagement, active learning, generalizability and enabling learning from mistakes. The 4 negative factors which detracted from the sense of authenticity were the public image of virtual worlds, lack of naturalism, unrealistic graphics and lack of tactile sense. (Contains 3 figures and 1 table.)

Background: Many of the potential benefits of using virtual worlds for teaching and learning are difficult to define and often become overly focused on the functionality of the technology or on its ability to support informal or "social" forms of learning. Purpose: The aim of the paper is to highlight the experiential nature of virtual worlds and to relate this to theories of experiential learning with a view to providing educators with a conceptual framework by which they can analyse their practice. Sources of evidence: The paper principally draws upon our own experience as professionals who have used virtual worlds for teaching purposes with the specific purpose of better understanding and analysing their characteristics. One significant source is the Open Habitat project, which, during 2008, piloted the use of virtual worlds with undergraduate art and design students based at Leeds Metropolitan University and lifelong distance philosophy students studying with the University of Oxford. Main argument: Virtual worlds have a culture specific to themselves. While aspects of this parallel real-life, the overall experience of learners when they immerse themselves in these worlds can be significantly different from that of real life. Rather than attempt to eliminate the differences, or simply focus on the technological aspects of teaching online, educators are encouraged to familiarise themselves with some of the differences, place them within the context of theories of experiential learning, and harness the opportunities for their own purposes. Conclusions: Teaching practitioners wishing to take advantage of virtual worlds should approach them as an "other" cultural space as well as a platform with given technical functionality. This will allow them to harness moments of disjuncture as key educational events. (Contains 5 figures and 2 notes.)

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore how professional skills training in making ethical decisions for redundancy selection, can be utilised though interactive role play, in a virtual learning environment. Design/methodology/approach: A pilot study was undertaken with a group of part time mature students pursuing a professional development programme. The pilot was based on the CLE concept using a virtual learning environment (VLE) and involved ethical decision making in a redundancy scenario. Data was gathered through the VLE "log" and through a focus group interview. Findings: Evidence is provided of the suitability of the CLE approach in this context. Additionally, the findings suggest that the use of a virtual learning environment for CLE raises a number of different issues for the management and motivation of participants. Virtual interaction of this nature creates different timescales, degrees of confidence and levels of anonymity than found with more traditional face-to-face training. This has an impact on behaviour and requires recognition and management by HRD facilitators. Research limitations/implications: The study was based on a small-scale pilot and has not been retested. Practical implications: The findings provide practical implications for further design in using CLE in redundancy selection. Furthermore, clinics for a variety of scenarios both in the workplace and educational settings could be based on this approach. Originality/value: The paper provides discussion of an innovative approach in an HRD context. These concepts have been not used extensively in the HRD field when trying to address learning and skills development in ethical decision making in practice.

The educational value of Immersive Virtual Worlds (IVWs) seems to be in their social immersive qualities and as an accessible simulation technology. In contrast to these synchronous applications this paper discusses the use of educational machinima developed in IVW virtual film sets. It also introduces the concept of media intervention, proposing that digital media works best when simply developed for deployment within a blended curriculum to inform learning activity, and where the media are specifically designed to set challenges, seed ideas, or illustrate problems. Machinima, digital films created in IVWs, or digital games offer a rich mechanism for delivering such interventions. Scenes are storyboarded, constructed, shot and edited using techniques similar to professional film production, drawing upon a cast of virtual world avatars controlled through a human-computer interface, rather than showing real-life actors. The approach enables academics or students to make films using screen capture software and desktop editing tools. In student-generated production models the learning value may be found in the production process itself. This paper discusses six case studies and several themes from research on ideas for educational machinima including: access to production; creativity in teaching and learning; media intervention methodology; production models; reusability; visualisation and simulation. (Contains 1 table.)

This paper reports on two research projects, one completed and a partial follow-up study in the early stages of investigation. The first study investigated a range of factors that directly affect the quality of web-supported learning opportunities. The outcome of that study is a taxonomy of critical success factors for quality web-supported learning based on six categories: institutional factors, technical factors, pedagogical factors, instructional design factors, lecturer factors and student factors. The new study takes as starting point one of the categories of the taxonomy, namely lecturer factors. Using appropriate media effectively should be seen as part of the development of personal and teaching proficiencies. However the literature reveals that there remain various barriers to academics adopting learning technologies as a matter of course in their practice and that the uptake of institutional e-learning systems remains in the hands of enthusiasts. Academics need to be supported in investigating the use of appropriate technology to enhance and expand their teaching practices. A research study is underway at Oxford University (UK) to determine the level of uptake of the virtual learning environment, as well as the barriers and limitations that academic staff encounter in moving forward along the technology adoption curve (Moore, 1999).

This paper examines children's and adults' attitudes to virtual representations of museum objects. Drawing on empirical research data gained from two web-based digital learning environments. The paper explores the characteristics of on-line learning activities that move children from a sense of wonder into meaningful engagement with objects and their original contexts both in their virtual space and their physical space. Considering the relationship between the virtual object and the physical object, and investigating how engagement with a virtual collection affects the attitude to the physical collection itself, the authors propose a model of the virtual museum learning experience, as a fourth dimension of museum objects. This model exhorts museums to go beyond merely creating virtual replicas of exhibitions, but instead to build multimedia rich immersive learning resources that foster meaningful and personal engagement with the target culture and thus genuinely extend intellectual access.

Audio-visual advances in virtual reality (VR) technology have given rise to innovative new ways to teach and learn. However, so far teaching and learning processes have been technologically driven as opposed to pedagogically led. This paper identifies the development of a pedagogical model and its application for teaching, studying and learning with 3D virtual reality technologies. This is in the context of design and technology education, where it has been devised for the support of innovation education. This work promotes an understanding of the implications of virtual learning technologies in education for teachers, learners and educational decision-makers. Furthermore, it can be shown that when pedagogical considerations are given weight in the development of such technology-based learning services, improvements arise for all stakeholders.

Exploratory learning environments (ELEs) promote a view of learning that encourages students to construct and/or explore models and observe the effects of modifying their parameters. The freedom given to learners in this exploration context leads to a variety of learner approaches for constructing models and makes modelling of learner behavior a challenging task. To address this issue, we propose a learner modelling mechanism for monitoring learners' actions when constructing/exploring models by modelling sequences of actions reflecting different strategies in solving a task. This is based on a modified version of case-based reasoning for problems with multiple solutions. In our formulation, approaches to explore the task are represented as sequences of simple cases linked by temporal and dependency relations, which are mapped to the learners' behavior in the system by means of appropriate similarity metrics. This paper presents the development and validation of the modelling mechanism. The model was validated in the context of an ELE for mathematical generalisation using data from classroom sessions and pedagogically-driven learning scenarios.

Over the past decade, industry relevance and connectedness have evolved into a key requirement for students and their parents, who increasingly perceive employability upon graduation as a critical factor in the degree selection process. Simultaneously, professional bodies emphasise the need for high levels of industry engagement as a condition for accreditation, which in turn further impacts on the "marketability" of a specific degree. However, many of the skills emphasised by potential employers and industry reference groups are more closely aligned with generic graduate attributes, rather than discipline specific knowledge and skills. This increasingly includes an emphasis on cultural awareness, excellent communication skills and the ability to work in dispersed, often even virtual teams. This observation is arguably particularly relevant within the business (degree) context, where workforces become increasingly multicultural, as traditional borders and limitations make way for transnational opportunities. This paper discusses the benefits and challenges associated with a third year student project that set out to combine the need for discipline specific knowledge, with the acquisition of versatile, culturally sensitive business skills. Students participating in the aptly titled "communications challenge" competed against their peers as part of multicultural teams, representing twelve countries, across five continents. The authors conclude that experiential learning opportunities like this global, real life client project may not necessarily be popular amongst the wider student cohort. Furthermore, the acquisition of discipline specific knowledge may be limited when compared to "traditional" teaching deliveries. However, projects like this provide a number of benefits, in particular in the context of capstone units that set out to prepare students for a diverse career in an increasingly global, multicultural and complex environment.

This paper reports on a conducted study, measuring the perceptions of post-graduate students on the effectiveness of serious games in the classroom. Four games were used (Project Management Exercise, "Winning Margin" Business Simulation, Management of Change and Management of Product Design and Development) with scenarios ranging from product design to project management. The games might be classified as Team-Based Mixed-Reality (TBMR) games. The games were conducted over the period October 2010 to May 2011 and the questionnaires conducted during June 2011. The results, from a sample size of 80 of largely international students, indicated a clear ranking of emotions experienced when participating in the games with "Exciting" outweighing "Apprehensive", "Bored" and Indifferent". The majority of students indicated that both "their team winning" and "showing their personal competence" were important to them. However 70% said that working in teams was valuable in itself implying that team-working was a strong element in the conclusion that the games were of value. For all four games, over 60% said that conflict was valuable and over 75% said participating improved their "working in teams" skills. The value of feedback was rated highly, as was improved motivation. Over 60% said that the participation in the games was more useful than lectures on the same topic.

Bullying is widespread in European schools, despite multiple intervention strategies having been proposed over the years. The present study investigates the effects of a novel virtual learning strategy ("FearNot!") to tackle bullying in both UK and German samples. The approach is intended primarily for victims to increase their coping skills and further to heighten empathy and defence of victims by non-involved bystanders. This paper focuses on the defender role. Applying quantitative as well as qualitative methodology, the present study found that "FearNot!" helped non-involved children to become defenders in the German sub-sample while it had no such effect in the UK sub-sample. German "New Defenders" (children who are initially uninvolved but are nominated as defenders by their peers after the intervention period) were found to be significantly more popular at baseline, and to show more cognitive empathy (Theory of Mind) for the virtual victims as compared to permanently non-involved pupils. Moreover, gender interacts with becoming a defender in its effects on affective empathy, with emotional contagion being particularly associated with New Defender status among girls. The findings are discussed in relation to previous research on anti-bullying intervention strategies and cultural differences in bullying prevalence rates and intervention outcomes.

A major strand of science and technology studies in recent decades has related to the social construction of technology (SCOT) movement, whose adherents maintain that technological systems are determined just as much by social forces as by technological ones. Taking this SCOT notion as a starting point, and putting a focus on the user, this paper looks at some examples of the educational use of software tools that exploit the functionality of the software in ways far removed from the original design. Examples include the use of spreadsheets, graphics editors and audio editors, and online translation software. Connections are made between the social construction of technology and constructivist pedagogy, particularly in relation to authentic learning. (Contains 5 figures, 1 table, and 3 notes.)

Background: In the 1990s, Salmon developed a five-stage model for enabling and scaffolding remote groups to work and learn together using asynchronous bulletin boards. The model has informed online learning and development practice across different levels and education for online and blended learning. Purpose: This paper reports our testing of the usefulness and relevance of the model for "Second Life" ("SL"). Programme description and sample: Our case studies included students and tutors from three different disciplines: Archaeology, Digital Photography and Media and Communications. For the first case study, we collaborated with a postgraduate distance learning course in Archaeology at the University of Leicester. The second case study involved a campus-based undergraduate course in Digital Photography at the London South Bank University. The third case study was of a postgraduate campus-based course in Media and Communications. Design and methods: In each study, we developed artefacts and activities ("SL"-tivities) for students and tutors, to enable them to interact in groups. The "SL"-tivities were designed based on the five-stage model to provide scaffolding of learning in a group. Using qualitative methods, we studied students' and tutors' engagement with "SL"-tivities and their learning experiences at each stage of the model. We captured data through semi-structured interviews and from chat logs in "SL", and mapped student dialogue against each stage of the model. We analysed the data using cognitive mapping, created causal understanding of the individuals and the groups and their changing views, feelings and experiences. Results and conclusions: The case studies gave us examples of learning opportunities in "SL" at each stage of the model. Our initial study showed that using a structured model for scaffolding learning in groups has value in a 3D multi-user virtual environment such as "SL", as well as in text-based asynchronous environments. The model helps to inform design and delivery so that learners' and teachers' confidence in each other and in the environment builds up and that they work productively with each other. We continue to build further research using "SL"-tivities and the five-stage model to explore and develop further understanding of its applicability. (Contains 2 figures and 1 note.)

Background: Immersive virtual worlds are one of a range of different platforms that can be grouped under the concept of mediated environments, i.e. environments that create a metaphorical space in which participants can position themselves and be embodied. Synthesising the literatures concerning the various mediated environment technologies provides an opportunity for research regarding these various technologies to inform each other. Purpose: The variety of concepts and terms within the various literatures reviewed are used inconsistently. Various typologies are used, and these may overlap in part and yet contain elements others are missing. The purpose of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework that aims to bring these various typologies together into one overall reference model. This reference model is intended to support other researchers in the field by reifying the field of mediated environments, forming an agenda for negotiation, but also a basic introduction to the various aspects of mediated environments. Sources of evidence: The conceptual framework is primarily based on Activity Theory, with the various categories further subdivided through reference to the wider literature concerning immersive virtual worlds, webconferencing, multi-user dungeons (MUDs) and other text-based communication platforms. In addition to the categories included in Activity Theory, two key elements that typify mediated environments are their provision of a situated experience for the participant and an opportunity for the participants to create and perform an identity. These are not specifically addressed by Activity Theory, but are within the Communities of Practice model. The conceptual framework presented here merges these two models. Conclusions: The conceptual framework provides a useful basis for systematically reviewing the various aspects of mediated environments, and for further debate and development. (Contains 6 figures.)

Background: Although much has been written about the ways in which new technology might transform educational practice, particularly in the area of literacy learning, there is relatively little empirical work that explores the possibilities and problems--or even what such a transformation might look like in the classroom. 3D virtual worlds offer a range of opportunities for children to use digital literacies in school, and suggest one way in which we might explore changing literacy practices in a playful, yet meaningful context. Purpose: This paper identifies some of the key issues that emerged in designing and implementing virtual world work in a small number of primary schools in the UK. It examines the tensions between different discourses about literacy and literacy learning and shows how these were played out by teachers and pupils in classroom settings. Sources of evidence: Case study data are used as a basis for exploring and illustrating key aspects of design and implementation. The case study material includes views from a number of perspectives including classroom observations, chatlogs, in-world avatar interviews with teachers and also pupils, as well as the author's field notes of the planning process with accompanying minutes and meeting documents. Main argument: From a Foucauldian perspective, the article suggests that social control of pedagogical practice through the regulation of curriculum time, the normalisation of teaching routines and the regimes of individual assessment restricts teachers' and pupils' conceptions of what constitutes literacy. The counternarrative, found in recent work in new literacies provides an attractive alternative, but a movement in this direction requires a fundamental shift of emphasis and a re-conceptualisation of what counts as learning. Conclusions: This work on 3D virtual worlds questions the notion of how transformative practice can be achieved with the use of new technologies. It suggests that changes in teacher preparation, continuing professional development as well as wider educational reform may be needed. (Contains 5 figures.)

There is a growing use of immersive virtual environments for educational purposes. However, much of this activity is not yet documented in the public domain, or is descriptive rather than analytical. This paper presents a case study in which university students were tasked with building an interactive learning experience using Second Life as a platform. Both problem-based learning and constructionism acted as framing pedagogies for the task, with students working in teams to design and build a learning experience which could potentially meet the needs of a real client in innovative ways which might not be possible in real life. A process account of the experience is provided, which examines how the pedagogies and contexts (real and virtual) influence and enhance each other. The use of a virtual environment, combined with problem-based learning and constructionism, subtly changed the nature of the instructor-student relationship, allowed students to explore "problematic problems" in a motivating and relevant manner, provided students with greater ownership over their work, and allowed problems to be set which were flexible, but at the same time allowed for ease of assessment.

This paper demonstrates a methodology for flexible, dynamic systems modelling relevant to urban rail decarbonisation. Decarbonisation of urban rail is a vital component of policy and strategy to minimize anthropogenic emissions. Decarbonisation is a systems problem, however, that needs to reflect the interaction between components and processes. Dynamic computer modelling of systems for decarbonisation involves interfacing multiple models together and running them in parallel in order to observe and predict systems-level effects. This is challenging due to the diverse nature of models, achieving parallel model integration and concerns around intellectual property (IP). One solution is the multi-modelling paradigm, which supports integrated, diverse, secure interfacing of models. This paper demonstrates the application of the multi-modelling approach, using the INTO-CPS tool chain. A multi-model was developed comprising key components required for urban rail decarbonisation problems. This multi-model was tested for power consumption in four different scenarios with an example drawn from the Tyne and Wear Metro in Newcastle-upon-Tyne in the United Kingdom. These scenarios compared combinations of decarbonisation intervention (baseline rolling stock versus lightweight, regenerative braking rolling stock and baseline driving style versus energy-efficient defensive driving style), generating different power consumption profiles for each. As such, this serves as a proof of the application of the multi-modelling approach and demonstrates a number of benefits for flexible and rapid systems modelling. This paper fills a knowledge gap by demonstrating a potentially valuable tool for future systems-level decarbonisation challenges in urban rail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of a changing climate, a growing number of construction firms are adopting carbon reduction targets on individual projects and across their portfolios. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some firms are seeking a means of aligning their targets with sectoral, national and international mitigation commitments. There are numerous ways by which such an alignment can be achieved, each requiring different assumptions. Using data from the UK construction industry, this paper reviews current company commitments and progress in carbon mitigation; analyses the unique challenges in aligning construction targets, and presents a series of possible sectoral decarbonisation trajectories. The results highlight the disparity between current company targets and the range of possible trajectories. It is clear that a cross-industry dialogue is urgently required to establish an appropriate response that delivers both a widely-accepted target trajectory and a plan for its delivery. This paper is intended to stimulate and support this necessary debate by illustrating the impact of different methodological assumptions and highlighting the critical features of an appropriate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on countries worldwide, including the United Kingdom (UK). The UK has faced numerous challenges, but its response, including the rapid vaccination campaign, has been noteworthy. While progress has been made, the study of the pandemic is important to enable us to properly prepare for future epidemics. Collaboration, vigilance, and continued adherence to public health measures will be crucial in navigating the path to recovery and building resilience for the future. In this article, we propose an overview of the COVID-19 situation in the UK using both mathematical (a nonlinear differential equation model) and statistical (time series modeling on a moving window) models on the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 virus from the beginning of the pandemic up until July 2022. This is achieved by integrating a hybrid model and daily empirical case and death data from the UK. We partition this dataset into before and after vaccination started in the UK to understand the influence of vaccination on disease dynamics. We used the mathematical model to present some mathematical analyses and the calculation of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ). Following the sensitivity analysis index, we deduce that an increase in the rate of vaccination will decrease R 0 . Also, the model was fitted to the data from the UK to validate the mathematical model with real data, and we used the data to calculate time-varying R 0 . The homotopy perturbation method (HPM) was used for the numerical simulation to demonstrate the dynamics of the disease with varying parameters and the importance of vaccination. Furthermore, we used statistical modeling to validate our model by performing principal component analysis (PCA) to predict the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK on some statistical predictor indicators from time series modeling on a 14-day moving window for detecting which of these indicators capture the dynamics of the disease spread across the epidemic curve. The results of the PCA, the index of dispersion, the fitted mathematical model, and the mathematical model simulation are all in agreement with the dynamics of the disease in the UK before and after vaccination started. Conclusively, our approach has been able to capture the dynamics of the pandemic at different phases of the disease outbreak, and the result presented will be useful to understand the evolution of the disease in the UK and future and emerging epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, aircraft measurements are presented of liquid phase (ice-free) wave clouds made at temperatures greater than -5 °C that formed over Scotland, UK. The horizontal variations of the vertical velocity across wave clouds display a distinct pattern. The maximum updraughts occur at the upshear flanks of the clouds and the strong downdraughts at the downshear flanks. The cloud droplet concentrations were a couple of hundreds per cubic centimetres, and the drops generally had a mean diameter between 15-45 µm. A small proportion of the drops were drizzle. The measurements presented here and in previous recent studies suggest a different interaction of dynamics and microphysics in wave clouds from the accepted model. The results in this paper provide a case for future numerical simulation of wave cloud and the interaction between wave and cloud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In cognitive ergonomics, laboratory experimentation using computer-based simulations (microworlds) has played a significant role in understanding human decision making and reasoning. In this paper, we describe the design and deployment of a social work microworld (BRIGIT), which simulates the electronic recording systems now widely implemented in UK children's services. BRIGIT provides a fabricated but realistic social work environment, enabling the fine structure of professional information processing to be studied in response to experimental manipulations, such as time pressure, etc. A preliminary experiment is described here, which shows BRIGIT to provide a convincing psychological experience and a useful research tool. As well as demonstrating its face and external validity, the results highlight BRIGIT's utility as a way of probing ‘practice culture’ and for examining different patterns of professional sense making. We conclude that the microworld paradigm provides a valuable and innovative approach for researching social work practice. A range of possible applications are discussed, not only in fundamental research, but as a practical tool for use in the workplace, such as for supporting staff selection. There is also obvious potential for ‘design research’ aimed directly at improving the usability and effectiveness of electronic systems, which is important given the widely reported problems of current ICT systems in social work. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents selected findings from a three-year research project that was funded by the Human Sciences domain of the U.K. Ministry of Defence's scientific research program. A significant number of military systems are operated by teams of varying sizes, and there is a trend toward greater teamwork in the future, as technological advances enable enhanced cooperation between geographically distributed personnel. The need to be able to determine the most appropriate team structure for the most effective performance is becoming greater. The approach that is presented here has taken theoretical concepts from the team performance literature, developed them into an enhanced theoretical formulation, operationalized them, selected representative tradeoff criteria, and implemented them using a computer-modeling tool. The program that was undertaken was able to demonstrate that operationalizing team structure and team-performance-shaping factors in specific behavioral terms in this way has immense potential to generate quantitative output, allowing meaningful comparisons among design or operational alternatives. In addition, the discipline of the operationalization process provides a means for enriching theoretical concepts by grounding them in realistic behavioral terms, and this can lead to enhanced theorizing. Furthermore, once the initial data are collected and the model is built, modification is neither labor nor time intensive. The approach could be developed further to apply to many more team structure and performance concepts. We believe that this will enhance both the theory and the value of team-structure modeling for practical application in system design in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay reports on ongoing efforts to build an accurate digital model of John Boydell's popular Shakespeare Gallery precisely as it looked in August 1796--when a 20-year-old Jane Austen visited London's sites, staying within a ten-minute walk from the gallery. The essay argues for the substantial difference between studying Boydell's pictures in a paper volume (whether as lists, illustrations in books, or engraved folio plates) and viewing them as an exhibition of paintings on walls, albeit virtual ones. For example, the digital reconstruction illuminated commissions from several female participants in Boydell's male-dominated gallery, especially Angelica Kauffman (1741-1807) and Anne Seymour Darner (1749-1828). In addition, the essay also recounts how the celebrity of model Emma Hart/Hamilton (1765-1815) safeguarded one Boydell painting from oblivion while The Shakespeare Gallery proved the site of a strange form of self-promotion practiced by actress Mary Wells (1762-1829). Our digital visualization of an historic exhibition in 1796 brought the controversial celebrity of a few women artists into focus. In sum, this essay shows DH methodology in action while sampling what might be gleaned when digital tools serve historical scholarship in the humanities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In its simplest form, multicast communication is the process of sending data packets from a source to multiple destinations in the same logical multicast group. IP multicast allows the efficient transport of data through wide-area networks, and its potentially great value for the Grid has been highlighted recently by a number of research groups. In this paper, we focus on the use of IP multicast in Grid applications, which require high-throughput reliable multicast. These include Grid-enabled computational steering and collaborative visualization applications, and wide-area distributed computing. We describe the results of our extensive evaluation studies of state-of-the-art reliable-multicast protocols, which were performed on the UK's high-speed academic networks. Based on these studies, we examine the ability of current reliable multicast technology to meet the Grid's requirements and discuss future directions.

Unlabelled: This paper details the results of the first phase of a project using eLearning to support students' learning within a simulated environment. The locus was a purpose built clinical simulation laboratory (CSL) where the School's philosophy of problem based learning (PBL) was challenged through lecturers using traditional teaching methods., The Solution: a student-centred, problem based approach to the acquisition of clinical skills that used high quality learning objects embedded within web pages, substituting for lecturers providing instruction and demonstration. This encouraged student nurses to explore, analyse and make decisions within the safety of a clinical simulation. Learning was facilitated through network communications and reflection on video performances of self and others. Evaluations were positive, students demonstrating increased satisfaction with PBL, improved performance in exams, and increased self-efficacy in the performance of nursing activities. These results indicate that eLearning techniques can help students acquire clinical skills in the safety of a simulated environment within the context of a problem based learning curriculum.

Soils down slope of roads have been affected over decades by road salting in the UK uplands. Salt additions to fresh soil facilitate dispersal of organic matter so there is a potential risk of release of DON and DOC to nearby rivers where these run parallel to roads. Over time, however, salting enhances soil pH of naturally acid soils, and thus organic matter degradation through to CO2, thereby, lowering soil organic matter content. In addition any relatively labile organic matter may have already been dispersed. Thus, it is hypothesised that enhanced DOC mobilisation should only be a potential problem if soils not previously exposed to salt become heavily exposed in the future. This paper combines data from field observations and laboratory simulations to elucidate mechanisms controlling organic matter mobilisation processes to determine what controls spatial and temporal trends in DOC concentrations in soil solutions down slope of roads. Organic matter solubilisation is dependent on the degree of road salt exposure soils have had. The laboratory experiment provided evidence that there are two competing effects upon which solubilisation is dependent (a) pH suppression and (b) sodium dispersion. Other organic matter solubility models, if correct, link quite well with the authors “when it’s gone, it’s gone” hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances in weather forecasting capability in the United Kingdom and their implications for increasing the lead time with which flood warnings can be issued. The events of summer 2007 have highlighted the vulnerability of parts of the United Kingdom to flooding and the need for long lead time flood warnings to enable the protection of people and critical infrastructure. Historically, computer weather forecasting models have been unable to forecast at the scales of importance for flood warning, and so the warning processes have been forced to rely on measurements on the ground. Examples are presented to demonstrate that new forecasting technologies, currently being implemented, enable warnings to be produced much earlier, provided they are couched in probabilistic terms and interpreted appropriately. Crown Copyright © 2009. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rockfall constitutes a major threat to the safety and sustainability of transport corridors bordered by rocky cliffs. This research introduces a new approach to rockfall susceptibility modeling for the identification of potential rockfall source zones. This is achieved by developing a data-driven model to assess the local slope morphological attributes with respect to the rock slope evolution processes. The ability to address "where" a rockfall is more likely to occur via the analysis of historical event inventories with respect to terrain attributes and to define the probability of a given area producing a rockfall is a critical advance toward effective transport corridor management. The availability of high-quality digital volumetric change detection products permits new developments in rockfall assessment and prediction. We explore the potential of simulating the conceptualization of slope-scale rockfall susceptibility modeling using computer power and artificial intelligence (AI). We employ advanced 3D computer vision algorithms for analyzing point clouds to interpret high-resolution digital observations capturing the rock slope evolution via long-term, LiDAR-based 3D differencing. The approach has been developed and tested on data from three rock slopes: two in Canada and one in the UK. The results indicate clear potential for AI advances to develop local susceptibility indicators from local geometry and learning from recent rockfall activity. The resultant models produce slope-wide rockfall susceptibility maps in high resolution, producing up to 75% agreement with validated occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite increased understanding about psoriasis pathophysiology, currently there is a lack of predictive computational models. We developed a personalisable ordinary differential equations model of human epidermis and psoriasis that incorporates immune cells and cytokine stimuli to regulate the transition between two stable steady states of clinically healthy (non-lesional) and disease (lesional psoriasis, plaque) skin. In line with experimental data, an immune stimulus initiated transition from healthy skin to psoriasis and apoptosis of immune and epidermal cells induced by UVB phototherapy returned the epidermis back to the healthy state. Notably, our model was able to distinguish disease flares. The flexibility of our model permitted the development of a patient-specific "UVB sensitivity" parameter that reflected subject-specific sensitivity to apoptosis and enabled simulation of individual patients' clinical response trajectory. In a prospective clinical study of 94 patients, serial individual UVB doses and clinical response (Psoriasis Area Severity Index) values collected over the first three weeks of UVB therapy informed estimation of the "UVB sensitivity" parameter and the prediction of individual patient outcome at the end of phototherapy. An important advance of our model is its potential for direct clinical application through early assessment of response to UVB therapy, and for individualised optimisation of phototherapy regimes to improve clinical outcome. Additionally by incorporating the complex interaction of immune cells and epidermal keratinocytes, our model provides a basis to study and predict outcomes to biologic therapies in psoriasis. Author summary: We present a new computer model for psoriasis, an immune-mediated disabling skin disease which presents with red, raised scaly plaques that can appear over the whole body. Psoriasis affects millions of people in the UK alone and causes significant impairment to quality of life, and currently has no cure. Only a few treatments (including UVB phototherapy) can induce temporary remission. Despite our increased understanding about psoriasis, treatments are still given on a 'trial and error' basis and there are no reliable computer models that can a) elucidate the mechanisms behind psoriasis onset or flare and b) predict a patient's response to a course of treatment (e.g., phototherapy) and the likelihood of inducing a period of remission. Our computer model addresses both these needs. First, it explicitly describes the interaction between the immune system and skin cells. Second, our model captures response to therapy at the individual patient level and enables personalised prediction of clinical outcomes. Notably, our model also supports prediction of amending individual UVB phototherapy regimes based on the patient's initial response that include for example personalised delivery schedules (i.e., 3x weekly vs. 5x weekly phototherapy). Therefore, our work is a crucial step towards precision medicine for psoriasis treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discolouration is an international phenomenon in drinking water distribution systems due to erosion of particulate material layers. In the UK water companies are implementing hydraulic layer conditioning for maintenance and resilience with significant cost benefits, despite limited understanding of the material accumulation processes. In this paper 18 months turbidity data from a 4 km trunk main is simulated using four extended period Epanet MSX model formulations. The measured data demonstrates recurrent regeneration of discolouration risk and hydraulic conditioning as pro-active mitigation. Modelling facilitates investigation of layer regeneration processes, helping inform future discolouration models and operational strategies to safeguard water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The T6 Stalker Tunnel is a multi-mode, high-enthalpy, transient ground test facility. It is the first of its type in the UK. The facility combines the original free-piston driver from the T3 Shock Tunnel with modified barrels from the Oxford Gun Tunnel. Depending on test requirements, it can operate as a shock tube, reflected shock tunnel or expansion tube. Commissioning tests of the free-piston driver are discussed, including the development of four baseline driver conditions using piston masses of either 36 kg or 89 kg. Experimental data are presented for each operating mode, with comparison made to numerical simulations. In general, high-quality test flows are observed. The calculated enthalpy range of the experimental conditions achieved varies from 2.7 MJ kg - 1 to 115.0 MJ kg - 1 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An archetypal simulation model of office building representing variability in UK office building stock by parameterising built form, construction elements, occupancy/usage and operational/control strategy has been developed thus enabling detailed energy performance simulation to be used for stock modelling and parametric studies. The paper discusses the building characteristics needed to be considered for energy performance simulation, their values, and how they can be used in parametric studies. These parameters include built forms, fabrics (including thermal mass and insulation positioning), glazing percentages and characteristics, daylight and solar control measures and activity and operational related parameters (heating and cooling set points, ventilation rate, occupancy density and metabolic rate, equipment and lighting gain). The default parameter values suggested for the archetypal simulation model reflect typical existing and currently proposed UK office building stock. An archetypal model, combined with parametric studies, can be used in assessing energy performance of building stock and evaluating adaptation/retrofitting strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Low Carbon Futures project, funded by the Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) Programme, has the objective of using the latest UK climate projections (UKCP’09) to assess overheating in a range of domestic and non-domestic buildings. As these climate projections are probabilistic in nature, and dynamic building simulation is being used by the project to assess building performance, the information produced is vast. To understand how to filter this data into a useable tool that can interact with current building practices, the project has commissioned a range of focus groups to obtain practitioner feedback. These focus groups provide guidance on how buildings are currently designed with respect to overheating but also how future overheating risk assessments, incorporating probabilistic climate projections, might be carried out. This paper describes the assimilation of all this research into a coherent building simulation methodology that could be used by building practitioners to assess future overheating risks of a range of buildings, and provide guidance for applying adaptation solutions to prevent defined comfort thresholds being exceeded. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes the analysis of the hygrothermal behaviours of stabilised rammed earth (SRE) walls used in a building in the UK. The analysis was achieved by computer simulation using WUFI Plus v1.2 whole building hygrothermal analysis software. To validate the model, an unoccupied test room in an unheated SRE building was monitored for 10 months. The hygrothermal properties of the SRE material were measured in the laboratory. It is shown that the SRE walls significantly reduced the amplitude of relative humidity fluctuations in the room air and reduced the frequency of high humidity periods at the wall surface. By adapting the model to represent an occupied and conditioned space, it is demonstrated that SRE walls have the potential to reduce the energy demand for humidification/dehumidification plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Traditionally, researchers have employed statistical methods to model crime. However, these approaches are limited by being unable to model individual actions and behaviour. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993) described that in their opinion a useful and productive model for simulating crime would have the ability to model the occurrence of crime and the motivations behind it both temporally and spatially. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. It presents a novel framework that allows both human and environmental factors to be simulated. Although other agent-based models of crime do exist, this research represents the first working example of integrating a behavioural framework into an ABM for the simulation of crime. An artificial city, loosely based on the real city of Leeds, UK, and an artificial population were constructed, and experiments were run to explore the potential of the model to realistically simulate the main processes and drivers within this system. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding processes behind crime and improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Chlamydia is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the UK and constitutes a major public health problem. The UK Department of Health is phasing in a National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) but there is concern that blanket screening of the entire at risk population will simply add extra burden to the already overstretched health economy. This paper demonstrates that certain high-risk sub-groups within the general population are critical in the infection dynamics. Improved targeting of these high-risk populations achieves greater cost-effectiveness. Statistical risk-group clustering techniques have been used to identify indicators that are strong predictors in determining high-risk status while geomapping techniques visually display prevalence geographically across the region, thus identifying high prevalence postcode clusters and informing public health planners where to target intervention and screening strategies. A System Dynamics simulation model has been used to capture the infection dynamics and measure the cost-effectiveness of the intervention strategies. The model incorporates risk-group behaviour as identified by the above geomapping and statistical analysis components of the research. The combined use of computer simulation, statistical analysis and geomapping methodologies has provided a unique holistic view of the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public goods and services such as prisons are often underfunded compared with private goods and services. Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a new financial vehicle to increase the use of private funds for public good. SIBs use a paid‐for‐success, performance‐based structure to reallocate risk and reward. In the current case, the SIB changes a critical reinforcing loop from a vicious cycle of decay to a virtuous cycle of improvement that can perpetuate SIB benefits far after the bond has been repaid. A simulation model of recidivism at Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Peterborough and the related SIB is developed to identify high‐leverage parameters and dominant feedback loops. These are used to explain SIB success or failure for two primary participants (HMP system and SIB investors). Model analysis also reveals a tipping point structure that puts the Peterborough programme at risk. Contributions include a formal SIB model, improved understanding of SIB structure and behaviour, an example of tipping point structures in a social system and recommendations concerning SIB design and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) has developed into an established method for strengthening causal inference and estimating causal effects, largely due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies. However, genetic instruments remain controversial, as horizontal pleiotropic effects can introduce bias into causal estimates. Recent work has highlighted the potential of gene-environment interactions in detecting and correcting for pleiotropic bias in MR analyses.Methods: We introduce MR using Gene-by-Environment interactions (MRGxE) as a framework capable of identifying and correcting for pleiotropic bias. If an instrument-covariate interaction induces variation in the association between a genetic instrument and exposure, it is possible to identify and correct for pleiotropic effects. The interpretation of MRGxE is similar to conventional summary MR approaches, with a particular advantage of MRGxE being the ability to assess the validity of an individual instrument.Results: We investigate the effect of adiposity, measured using body mass index (BMI), upon systolic blood pressure (SBP) using data from the UK Biobank and a single weighted allelic score informed by data from the GIANT consortium. We find MRGxE produces findings in agreement with two-sample summary MR approaches. Further, we perform simulations highlighting the utility of the approach even when the MRGxE assumptions are violated.Conclusions: By utilizing instrument-covariate interactions in MR analyses implemented within a linear-regression framework, it is possible to identify and correct for horizontal pleiotropic bias, provided the average magnitude of pleiotropy is constant across interaction-covariate subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England.Method and Findings: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data.Conclusions: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0% Results Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]