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Background: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease neglected, caused by Mycobacterium leprae, considered a public health problem because may cause permanent physical disabilities and deformities, leading to severe limitations. This review presents an overview of the results of epidemiological studies on leprosy occurrence in childhood in Brazil, aiming to alert health planners and managers to the actual need to institute special control strategies. Methodology/Principal findings: Data collection consisted of an electronic search for publications in eight databases: Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS), Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), PuBMed, Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde (BVS), SciVerse Scopus (Scopus), CAPES theses database, CAPES journals database and Web of Science of papers published up to 2016. After apply selection criteria, twenty-two papers of studies conducted in four different regions of Brazil and published between 2001 and 2016 were included in the review. The leprosy detection rate ranged from 10.9 to 78.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite affecting both sexes, leprosy was more common in boys and in 10-14-year-olds. Although the authors reported a high cure proportion (82–90%), between 1.7% and 5.5% of the individuals developed a disability resulting from the disease. Conclusions/Significance: The findings of this review shows that leprosy situation in Brazilian children under 15 years is extremely adverse in that the leprosy detection rate remains high in the majority of studies. The proportion of cases involving disability is also high and reflects the difficulties and the poor effectiveness of actions aimed at controlling the disease. The authors suggest the development of studies in spatial clusters of leprosy, where beyond the routine actions established, are included news strategies of active search and campaigns and actions of educations inside the clusters of this disease. The new agenda needs to involve the precepts of ethical, humane and supportive care, in order to achieve a new level of leprosy control in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In August 2011, the German Protection against Infection Act was amended, mandating the reporting of healthcare associated infection (HAI) outbreak notifications by all healthcare workers in Germany via local public health authorities and federal states to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Objective: To describe the reported HAI-outbreaks and the surveillance system’s structure and capabilities. Methods: Information on each outbreak was collected using standard paper forms and notified to RKI. Notifications were screened daily and regularly analysed. Results: Between November 2011 and November 2012, 1,326 paper forms notified 578 HAI-outbreaks, between 7 and 116 outbreaks per month. The main causative agent was norovirus (n = 414/578; 72%). Among the 108 outbreaks caused by bacteria, the most frequent pathogens were Clostridium difficile (25%) Klebsiella spp. (19%) and Staphylococcus spp. (19%). Multidrug-resistant bacteria were responsible for 54/108 (50%) bacterial outbreaks. Hospitals were affected most frequently (485/578; 84%). Hospital outbreaks due to bacteria were mostly reported from intensive care units (ICUs) (45%), followed by internal medicine wards (16%). Conclusion: The mandatory HAI-outbreak surveillance system describes common outbreaks. Pathogens with a particular high potential to cause large or severe outbreaks may be identified, enabling us to further focus research and preventive measures. Increasing the sensitivity and reliability of the data collection further will facilitate identification of outbreaks able to increase in size and severity, and guide specific control measures to interrupt their propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The concept 'vulnerability' is prevalent in the public domain, health care, social institutions and multidisciplinary research. Conceptual heterogeneity is present, hampering the creation of a common evidence-base of research achievements and successful policies. Recently an international expert group combined a specific literature review with a 2-stage Delphi procedure, arriving at a seemingly universal concept of vulnerability for the elderly with applications for research instruments. We replicated and extended this study, to generalize this result to health in general, and perinatal health in particular. Methods: Two independent expert panels (general health, perinatal health) repeated the Delphi-procedure, using an extended and updated literature review to derive statements on the concept and defining pathways of vulnerability. Additional views were collected on research tools. Consensus-by-design was explicitly avoided. Data collection and processing was independent. Results: Both panels showed surprising convergence on the pathways of vulnerability to health/ill-health, and their interaction. The agreed conceptual model describes a dynamic relation between health and ill-health and vulnerability. The 2 key pathways that link to vulnerability, are complementary, but not symmetrical as biological processes of maintaining health or obtaining better health are not reciprocal to recovery, so also not in terms of vulnerability impacts. An individual's degree of vulnerability is the net balance of risk effects and protective and healing factors (socially, biologically and in terms of health literacy and health care access). These factors can for measurement purposes (according to the panels: interview for exploration, checklists for population research) be grouped into ‘material resources’, ‘taking responsibility for one’s own health’, ‘risky activities and behaviors’, and ‘social support’. Supportive and transforming action can thus be undertaken. Conclusion: A universal concept of vulnerability in the context of health was successfully derived after careful replication and extension of an international Delphi study on vulnerability among the elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could benefit from policies and intervention strategies that are tailored to the local geographic areas' profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 2011 a large outbreak of typhoid fever affected an estimated 1430 people in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak started in military camps in the city but then spread to the general population. This paper reports the results of an ecological analysis and a case-control study undertaken to examine water and other possible transmission pathways. Attack rates were determined for health areas and risk ratios were estimated with respect to spatial exposures. Approximately 15 months after the outbreak, demographic, environmental and exposure data were collected for 320 cases and 640 controls residing in the worst affected areas, using a structured interview questionnaire. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated. Complete data were available for 956 respondents. Residents of areas with water supplied via gravity on the mains network were at much greater risk of disease acquisition (risk ratio = 6.20, 95%CI 3.39–11.35) than residents of areas not supplied by this mains network. In the case control study, typhoid was found to be associated with ever using tap water from the municipal supply (OR = 4.29, 95% CI 2.20–8.38). Visible urine or faeces in the latrine was also associated with increased risk of typhoid and having chosen a water source because it is protected was negatively associated. Knowledge that washing hands can prevent typhoid fever, and stated habit of handwashing habits before cooking or after toileting was associated with increased risk of disease. However, observed associations between handwashing or plate-sharing with disease risk could very likely be due to recall bias. This outbreak of typhoid fever was strongly associated with drinking water from the municipal drinking water supply, based on the descriptive and analytic epidemiology and the finding of high levels of faecal contamination of drinking water. Future outbreaks of potentially waterborne disease need an integrated response that includes epidemiology and environmental microbiology during early stages of the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has identified the impacts of legal frameworks that criminalize HIV non-disclosure among people living with HIV (e.g., elevated stigma and violence). However, far less is known about the perspectives or experiences of people–particularly, men–who are HIV-seronegative or who are unaware of their status. The objective of this paper is to describe the health and social risks that young men perceive to be associated with an HIV diagnosis in the context of Canada’s current legal framework pertaining to HIV non-disclosure. Methods: We analyzed data from 100 in-depth interviews (2013–2016) conducted with 85 young men ages 18–30 in Vancouver on the topic of the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure. Results: Our analysis revealed two dominant narratives in relation to HIV criminalization: (a) interrogation and (b) justification. An interrogation narrative problematized the moral permissibility of criminalizing HIV non-disclosure. In this narrative, Canada’s HIV non-disclosure legal framework was characterized as creating unjust barriers to HIV testing uptake, as well as impeding access to and reducing retention in care for those living with HIV. Conversely, a justification narrative featured a surprising number of references to HIV as a “death sentence”, despite effective treatments being universally available in Canada. However, most of those who presented the justification narrative asserted that the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure was morally justified in light of the perceived negative stigma-related impacts of HIV (e.g., discrimination; being ostracized from sex or romantic partners, friends, family). The justification narrative often reflected a belief that the legal framework provides both punishment and deterrence, which were perceived to supersede any barriers to care for both HIV-positive and -negative individuals. Conclusion: Public education regarding contemporary medical advances in HIV may help contest lay understandings of HIV as a “death sentence”, which is particularly relevant to destabilizing justification narratives. However, significant strengthening of HIV stigma-reduction efforts will be needed to move society away from narratives that attempt to justify Canada’s current HIV non-disclosure legal framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increased prevalence of cancer, respiratory diseases, and reproductive disorders, for which multifactorial origins are strongly suspected, the impact of the environment on the population represents a substantial public health challenge. Surveillance systems have become an essential public health decision-making tool. Networks have been constructed to facilitate the development of analyses of the multifactorial aspects of the relationships between occupational contexts and health. The aim of this study is to develop and present an approach for the optimal exploitation of observational databases to describe and improve the understanding of the (occupational) environment–health relationships, taking into account key multifactorial aspects. We have developed a spectral analysis (SA) approach that takes into account both the multi-exposure and dynamic natures of occupational health problems (OHPs) and related associations. The main results of this paper are to present the construction method of the “spectrum” and “spectrosome” of OHPs (range and structured list of occupational exposures) and describe the information contained therein with an illustrative example. The approach is illustrated using the case of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from the French National Occupational Diseases Surveillance and Prevention Network database as a working example of an occupational disease. We found that the NHL spectrum includes 40 sets of occupational exposures characterized by important multi-exposures, especially solvent combinations or pesticide combinations, but also specific exposures such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde and ionizing radiation. These findings may be useful for surveillance and the assessment of occupational exposure related to health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In October 2012, the Haitian Ministry of Health endorsed the “Option B+” strategy to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV and achieve HIV epidemic control. The objective of this paper is to assess and identify risk factors for attrition from the national ART program among Option B+ patients in the 12 months after ART initiation. Design: This retrospective cohort study included patients newly initiating ART from October 2012-August 2013 at 68 ART sites covering 45% of all newly enrolled ART patients in all regions of Haiti. Methods: With data from electronic medical records, we carried out descriptive analysis of sociodemographic, clinical, and pregnancy-related correlates of ART attrition, and used a modified Poisson regression approach to estimate relative risks in a multivariable model. Results: There were 2,166 Option B+ patients who initiated ART, of whom 1,023 were not retained by 12 months (47.2%). One quarter (25.3%) dropped out within 3 months of ART initiation. Protective factors included older age, more advanced HIV disease progression, and any adherence counseling prior to ART initiation, while risk factors included starting ART late in gestation, starting ART within 7 days of HIV testing, and using an atypical ART regimen. Discussion: Our study demonstrates early ART attrition among Option B+ patients and contributes evidence on the characteristics of women who are most at risk of attrition in Haiti. Our findings highlight the importance of targeted strategies to support retention among Option B+ patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the number of people newly infected by HIV is continuing to decline globally, the epidemic continues to expand in many parts of the world. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic has matured in many countries, it is believed that the proportion of new infections occurring within couples has risen. Across countries, including Mozambique, a sizeable proportion of couples with HIV infection are discordant. A serodiscordant couple is a couple in which one partner has tested positive for HIV and the other has not. To describe the HIV serodiscordance among couples, a variety of association measures can be used. In this paper, we propose the serodiscordance measure as a new alternative measure. Focus is on the specification of flexible marginal and random effects models for multivariate correlated binary data together with a full-likelihood estimation method, to adequately and directly describe the measure of interest. Fitting joint models allows examining the effects of different risk factors and other covariates on the probability to be HIV positive for each member within a couple, and estimating common effects for both probabilities more efficiently, while accounting for the association between their infection status. Moreover, the interpretation of the proposed association parameter SDM is more direct and relevant and effects of covariates can be studied as well. Results show that the HIV prevalence for the province where a couple was located as well as the union number for the woman within a couple are factors associated with HIV serodiscordance. These findings are important for the Mozambican public health policy makers to design national prevention plans, which include policies to stimulate regular HIV testing for couples as well as adolescents and young adults, prior to getting married or living together as a couple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bangladesh had one of the highest burdens of lymphatic filariasis (LF) at the start of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) with an estimated 70 million people at risk of infection across 34 districts. In total 19 districts required mass drug administration (MDA) to interrupt transmission, and 15 districts were considered low endemic. Since 2001, the National LF Programme has implemented MDA, reduced prevalence, and been able to scale up the WHO standard Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) across all endemic districts as part of its endgame surveillance strategy. This paper presents TAS results, highlighting the momentous geographical reduction in risk of LF and its contribution to the global elimination target of 2020. Methodology/Principal findings: The TAS assessed primary school children for the presence of LF antigenaemia in each district (known as an evaluation unit—EU), using a defined critical cut-off threshold (or ‘pass’) that indicates interruption of transmission. Since 2011, a total of 59 TAS have been conducted in 26 EUs across the 19 endemic MDA districts (99,148 students tested from 1,801 schools), and 22 TAS in the 15 low endemic non-MDA districts (36,932 students tested from 663 schools). All endemic MDA districts passed TAS, except in Rangpur which required two further rounds of MDA. In total 112 students (male n = 59; female n = 53), predominately from the northern region of the country were found to be antigenaemia positive, indicating a recent or current infection. However, the distribution was geographically sparse, with only two small focal areas showing potential evidence of persistent transmission. Conclusions/Significance: This is the largest scale up of TAS surveillance activities reported in any of the 73 LF endemic countries in the world. Bangladesh is now considered to have very low or no risk of LF infection after 15 years of programmatic activities, and is on track to meet elimination targets. However, it will be essential that the LF Programme continues to develop and maintain a comprehensive surveillance strategy that is integrated into the health infrastructure and ongoing programmes to ensure cost-effectiveness and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of miRNA-disease association is a fundamental challenge in human health clinic. However, the known miRNA-disease associations are rare and experimental verification methods are expensive and time-consuming. Therefore, there is a strong incentive to develop computational methods. In this paper, we calculate the similarity score for each miRNAs pair by integrating miRNA functional similarity and miRNA family information. We use the disease phenotype similarity data to construct the disease similarity network. Then we introduce a new miRNA-disease association prediction method (NETwork Group Similarity, NetGS) to explore the global network similarity, capturing the relationship between the disease and other diseases, the similarity between the potential disease-related miRNA and other miRNAs. Finally based on the consistency of diffusion profiles we get the miRNA-disease association scores. NetGS is tested by the leave-one-out cross validation and achieves an AUC value of 0.8450, which improves the prediction accuracy. NetGS can also be applied to solve the new miRNA-disease association and obtain reliable accuracy. Moreover, we use NetGS to predict new causing miRNAs of three cancers including breast cancer, lung cancer and Hepatocellular cancer. And the top predictions have been confirmed in the online databases. The encouraging results indicate that NetGS might play an essential role for future scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Social capital has been studied due to its contextual influence on health. However, no specific assessment tool has been developed and validated for the measurement of social capital among 12-year-old adolescent students. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a quick, simple assessment tool to measure social capital among adolescent students. Methods: A questionnaire was developed based on a review of relevant literature. For such, searches were made of the Scientific Electronic Library Online, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences, The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Knowledge, International Database for Medical Literature and PubMed Central bibliographical databases from September 2011 to January 2014 for papers addressing assessment tools for the evaluation of social capital. Focus groups were also formed by adolescent students as well as health, educational and social professionals. The final assessment tool was administered to a convenience sample from two public schools (79 students) and one private school (22 students), comprising a final sample of 101 students. Reliability and internal consistency were evaluated using the Kappa coefficient and Cronbach's alpha coefficient, respectively. Content validity was determined by expert consensus as well as exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Results: The final version of the questionnaire was made up of 12 items. The total scale demonstrated very good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.71). Reproducibility was also very good, as the Kappa coefficient was higher than 0.72 for the majority of items (range: 0.63 to 0.97). Factor analysis grouped the 12 items into four subscales: School Social Cohesion, School Friendships, Neighborhood Social Cohesion and Trust (school and neighborhood). Conclusions: The present findings indicate the validity and reliability of the Social Capital Questionnaire for Adolescent Students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies aimed at understanding the association between induced abortion and HIV are scarce and differ on the direction of the association. This paper aims to show the prevalence of induced abortion in a sample of pregnancies of women living and not living with HIV/Aids, determining variables associated with pregnancy termination and linked to the life course of women and to the specific context of the pregnancy. Methods: Data came from a cross-sectional study, using interviewer-administered questionnaire, developed with women that attended public health services in Porto Alegre, Brazil. A generalized estimating equation model with logit link measured the association between determinants and abortion. Findings: The final sample was composed of 684 women living with HIV/Aids (2,039 pregnancies) and 639 women not living with HIV/Aids (1,539 pregnancies). The prevalence of induced abortion among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids was 6.5%, while in women not living with HIV/Aids was 2.9%. Among women living with HIV/Aids, the following were associated with induced abortion in the multivariable analysis: being older, having a higher education level, having had more sexual partners (i.e., variables linked to the life course of women), having had children prior to the index pregnancy and living with a sexual partner during pregnancy (i.e., variables linked to the context of each pregnancy). On the other hand, among women not living with HIV/Aids, only having a higher education level and having had more sexual partners (i.e., determinants linked to the life course of women) were associated with voluntary pregnancy termination in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Although determinants are similar between women living and not living with HIV/Aids, prevalence of induced abortion is higher among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids, pointing to their greater social vulnerability and to the need for public policy to address prevention and treatment of HIV associated with reproductive issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980–1989 and 1990–1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963–6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of . Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849–42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID50 (95% CI 6.6–26.2 bID50) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The recent 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreaks rang the bell to call upon global efforts to assist resource-constrained countries to strengthen public health surveillance system for early response. Malawi adopted the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy to develop its national surveillance system since 2002 and revised its guideline to fulfill the International Health Regulation (IHR) requirements in 2014. This study aimed to understand the state of IDSR implementation and differences between guideline and practice for future disease surveillance system strengthening. Methods: This was a mixed-method research study. Quantitative data were to analyze completeness and timeliness of surveillance system performance from national District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) during October 2014 to September 2016. Qualitative data were collected through interviews with 29 frontline health service providers from the selected district and 7 key informants of the IDSR system implementation and administration at district and national levels. Findings: The current IDSR system showed relatively good completeness (73.1%) but poor timeliness (40.2%) of total expected monthly reports nationwide and zero weekly reports during the study period. Major implementation gaps were lack of weekly report and trainings. The challenges of IDSR implementation revealed through qualitative data included case identification, compiling reports for timely submission and inadequate resources. Conclusions: The differences between IDSR technical guideline and actual practice were huge. The developing information technology infrastructure in Malawi and emerging mobile health (mHealth) technology can be opportunities for the country to overcome these challenges and improve surveillance system to have better timeliness for the outbreaks and unusual events detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper by Ximena Paz Aguilera and colleagues is a country case study for the Universal Health Coverage Collection, organized by WHO. It illustrates progress towards UHC and its monitoring and evaluation in Chile. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the past decade, bacillary dysentery was still a big public health problem in China, especially in Guangxi Province, where thousands of severe diarrhea cases occur every year. Methods: Reported bacillary dysentery cases in Guangxi Province were obtained from local Centers for Diseases Prevention and Control. The 14 socio-economic indexes were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. The spatial correlation analysis was used to explore the associations between the selected factors and bacillary dysentery incidence at county level, which was based on the software of ArcGIS10.2 and GeoDA 0.9.5i. Results: The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of younger than 5-year-old children in total population, the number of hospitals per thousand persons and the rates of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. But the proportion of secondary industry, per capital GDP, per capital government revenue, rural population proportion, popularization rate of tap water in rural area, access rate to the sanitation toilets in rural, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and the rate of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The socio-economic factors can be divided into four aspects, including economic development, health development, medical development and human own condition. The four aspects were not isolated from each other, but interacted with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In light of the opioid epidemic in the United States, there is growing concern about the use of opioids in Sweden as it may lead to misuse and overuse and, in turn, severe public health problems. However, little is known about the distribution of opioid use across different demographic and socioeconomic dimensions in the Swedish general population. Therefore, we applied an intersectional Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA), to obtain an improved mapping of the risk heterogeneity of and socioeconomic inequalities in opioid prescription receipt. Methods and findings: Using data from 6,846,106 residents in Sweden aged 18 and above, we constructed 72 intersectional strata from combinations of gender, age, income, cohabitation status, and presence or absence of psychological distress. We modelled the absolute risk (AR) of opioid prescription receipt in a series of multilevel logistic regression models distinguishing between additive and interaction effects. By means of the Variance Partitioning Coefficient (VPC) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), we quantified the discriminatory accuracy (DA) of the intersectional strata for discerning those who received opioid prescriptions from those who did not. The AR of opioid prescription receipt ranged from 2.77% (95% CI 2.69–2.86) among low-income men aged 18–34, living alone, without psychological distress, to 28.25% (95% CI 27.95–28.56) among medium-income women aged 65 and older, living alone, with psychological distress. In a model that conflated both additive and interaction effects, the intersectional strata had a fair DA for discerning opioid users from non-users (VPC = 13.2%, AUC = 0.68). However, in the model that decomposed total effects into additive and interaction effects, the VPC was very low (0.42%) indicating the existence of small interaction effects for a number of the intersectional strata. Conclusions: The intersectional MAIHDA approach aligns with the aims of precision public health, through improving the evidence base for health policy by increasing understanding of both health inequalities and individual heterogeneity. This approach is particularly relevant for socioeconomically conditioned outcomes such as opioid prescription receipt. We have identified intersections of social position within the Swedish population at greater risk for opioid prescription receipt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning for a re-emergent epidemic of smallpox requires surge capacity of space, resources and personnel within health systems. There are many uncertainties in such a scenario, including likelihood and size of an attack, speed of response and health system capacity. We used a model for smallpox transmission to determine requirements for hospital beds, contact tracing and health workers (HCWs) in Sydney, Australia, during a modelled epidemic of smallpox. Sensitivity analysis was done on attack size, speed of response and proportion of case isolation and contact tracing. We estimated 100638 clinical HCWs and 14595 public hospital beds in Sydney. Rapid response, case isolation and contact tracing are influential on epidemic size, with case isolation more influential than contact tracing. With 95% of cases isolated, outbreak control can be achieved within 100 days even with only 50% of contacts traced. However, if case isolation and contact tracing both fall to 50%, epidemic control is lost. With a smaller initial attack and a response commencing 20 days after the attack, health system impacts are modest. The requirement for hospital beds will vary from up to 4% to 100% of all available beds in best and worst case scenarios. If the response is delayed, or if the attack infects 10000 people, all available beds will be exceeded within 40 days, with corresponding surge requirements for clinical health care workers (HCWs). We estimated there are 330 public health workers in Sydney with up to 940,350 contacts to be traced. At least 3 million respirators will be needed for the first 100 days. To ensure adequate health system capacity, rapid response, high rates of case isolation, excellent contact tracing and vaccination, and protection of HCWs should be a priority. Surge capacity must be planned. Failures in any of these could cause health system failure, with inadequate beds, quarantine spaces, personnel, PPE and inability to manage other acute health conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the efforts of community health workers to increase access to healthcare among ethnic minority groups in low- and -middle income countries, members of ethnic minorities are less likely than women from other ethnic groups to use maternal and child healthcare services. However, much less is known about the factors that limit access of ethnic minorities to healthcare services, including the services of community health workers in Nepal, who are known as Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs). To address this issue, we conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived barriers to accessing maternal and child healthcare services among ethnic minority groups in two different geographical locations (the hill and Terai regions- flatland bordering south India) with varying degrees of access to local healthcare centres. Between April 2014 and September 2014, semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty FCHVs, 26 women service users and 11 paid local health workers. In addition, 15 FCHVs participated in four focus group discussions. A thematic analysis of the data identified five major themes underlying barriers to accessing available maternal and child healthcare services by ethnic minority groups such as Dalits, Madhesi, Muslim, Chepang and Tamang. These themes include: a) lack of knowledge among service users; b) lack of trust in volunteers; c) traditional beliefs and healthcare practices; d) low decision-making power of women; and e) perceived indignities experienced when using health centres. We conclude that community health programmes should focus on increasing awareness of healthcare services among ethnic minority groups, and the programmes should involve family members (husband and mothers-in-law) and traditional health practitioners. Both the FCHVs and local healthcare providers should be trained to communicate effectively in order to deliver respectful care among ethnic minorities if we want to achieve universal healthcare coverage for maternal and child health in low- and -middle income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Dementia is a major public health concern but one that continues to be stigmatised. We examine lay knowledge of dementia and attitudes to people with dementia as potential precursors of public anxiety, focusing on the social characteristics associated with (a) the formation of these attitudes, and (b) the perception of the need for restriction and control for people with dementia. Methods: Analysis of the 2014 Northern Ireland Life and Times survey, which included questions on knowledge of, attitudes to and personal experience with dementia. We used (a) latent class analysis and (b) logistic regression to examine factors associated with respondent attitudes towards dementia. Results: Respondents (n = 1211) had relatively good general knowledge of dementia, but limited knowledge of specific risk factors. Negative perceptions of dementia were mitigated somewhat by personal contact. A high proportion of respondents felt that high levels of control were appropriate for people diagnosed with dementia, even at early stages of the disease. Conclusion: Personal antipathy to dementia was highly prevalent despite ongoing public campaigns to increase public awareness of developments in its prevention, treatment and consequent care pathways and hampering efforts to widen social inclusion. Fresh thinking and more resources may be needed to challenge persisting common misapprehension of the condition and the formation of entrenched stigma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Integrated cardiovascular disease (CVD) and HIV (CVD-HIV) care interventions are being adopted to tackle the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) but there is a paucity of studies on the feasibility of these interventions in LMICs. This scoping review aims to present evidence of the feasibility of integrated CVD-HIV care in LMICs, and the alignment of feasibility reporting in LMICs with the existing implementation science methodology. Methods: A systematic search of published articles including systematic and narrative reviews that reported on integrated CVD-HIV care was conducted, using multiple search engines including PubMed/Medline, Global Health, and Web of Science. We examined the articles for evidence of feasibility reporting. Adopting the definition of Proctor and colleagues (2011), feasibility was defined as the extent to which an intervention was plausible in a given agency or setting. Evidence from the articles was synthesized by level of integration, the chronic care continuum, and stages of intervention development. Results: Twenty studies, reported in 18 articles and 3 conferences abstracts, reported on feasibility of integrated CVD-HIV care interventions. These studies were conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. Four of these studies were conducted as feasibility studies. Eighty percent of the studies reported feasibility, using descriptive sentences that included words synonymous with feasibility terminologies in existing definition recommended by Proctor and colleagues. There was also an overlap in the use of descriptive phrases for feasibility amongst the selected studies. Conclusions: Integrating CVD and HIV care is feasible in LMICs, although methodology for reporting feasibility is inconsistent. Assessing feasibility based on settings and integration goals will provide a unique perspective of the implementation landscape in LMICs. There is a need for consistency in measures in order to accurately assess the feasibility of integrated CVD-HIV care in LMICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unexpected early cessation of the recent West Africa Ebola outbreak demonstrated shortcomings of popular forecasting approaches and has not been fully understood yet. A popular hypothesis is that public health interventions mitigated the spread, such as ETUs and safe burials. We investigate whether risk heterogeneity within the population could serve as an alternative explanation. We introduce a model for spread in heterogeneous host population that is particularly well suited for early predictions due to its simplicity and ease of application. Furthermore, we explore the conditions under which the observed epidemic trajectory can be explained without taking into account the effect of public health interventions. While the obtained fits closely match the total case count time series, closer inspection of sub-population results made us conclude that risk heterogeneity is unlikely to fully explain the early cessation of Ebola; other factors such as behavioral changes and other interventions likely played a major role. More accurate predictions in a future scenario require models that allow for early sub-exponential growth, as well as access to additional data on patient occupation (risk level) and location, to allow identify local phenomena that influence spreading behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China used to be among the countries with a high prevalence of trachoma. At the launch of The Global Elimination of Trachoma (GET) 2020 campaign by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1996, China was placed on the list of countries endemic for trachoma based on historical data. However, empirical observation and routinely collected eye care data were suggesting that trachoma was no longer a public health problem. To determine whether the GET 2020 goals had been met in P. R. China, we conducted a targeted assessment with national scope. Methodology/principal finding: Province assessment teams, trained in WHO Trachoma Rapid Assessment (TRA) methodology and in WHO simplified trachoma grading system, carried out assessments in 16 provinces (among them, 2 provinces conducted pilot assessment). Based on the published literature, including national and international reports, suspected trachoma-endemic areas within each province were identified. Within these areas, trachomatous inflammation- follicular (TF) assessments were carried out in at least 50 grade-one children in primary schools serving villages with the lowest socio-economic development. Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) and corneal opacity (CO) assessments were conducted among persons aged 15 and over in villages within the catchment area of the selected schools. Of 8,259 children examined in 128 primary schools in 97 suspected trachoma endemic areas, only 16 cases of conjunctivitis were graded as TF. 38 cases with TT were found among the 339,013 examined residents in villages surrounding the schools. Among these 97 suspected trachoma endemic areas in only three was the prevalence of TT more than 0.2%. Conclusions/significance: This large study suggested that trachoma was not a public health problem in 16 provinces that had been previously suspected to be endemic. These findings will facilitate planning for elimination of trachoma from PR China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: High sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates in the South, especially among young black men who have sex with men (YB MSM), make STI testing imperative for public health. Purpose: To identify STI testing preferences in this population to improve testing delivery and utilization. Methods: YB MSM ages 16–35 in Birmingham, Alabama participated in focus groups (FG). A trained qualitative researcher coded transcripts after each FG and added questions to explore emerging themes. Results: Between September 2017 and January 2018, 36 YB MSM participated in 5 focus groups. Median age was 25.5 (Interquartile range 22–30). Participants preferred STI testing at doctors’ offices conducted by physicians but they also preferred having options related to testing locations, frequency, and timing to address diverse needs. Participants did not prefer testing by non-physician staff or home self-testing. Conclusion: A variety of options, including varied locations, personnel, and methods (self-collected and provider collected) are needed to make patient-preferred STI testing a reality among YB MSM in the Deep South. Further, the desire to be tested by a trusted physician highlights the need for access to primary care providers. Results suggest that newer home-based tests and self-collected tests are less preferable to YB MSM in the South, which deserves further study as these tests are rapidly integrated into clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Policy Forum, Joseph Amon and colleagues discuss human rights indicators for tracking progress toward ending the HIV epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), monkeypox is a zoonotic disease that causes smallpox-like illness in humans. Observed fluctuations in reported cases over time raises questions about when it is appropriate to mount a public health response, and what specific actions should be taken. We evaluated three different thresholds to differentiate between baseline and heightened disease incidence, and propose a novel, tiered algorithm for public health action. Monkeypox surveillance data from Tshuapa Province, 2011–2013, were used to calculate three different statistical thresholds: Cullen, c-sum, and a World Health Organization (WHO) method based on monthly incidence. When the observed cases exceeded the threshold for a given month, that month was considered to be ‘aberrant’. For each approach, the number of aberrant months detected was summed by year—each method produced vastly different results. The Cullen approach generated a number of aberrant signals over the period of consideration (9/36 months). The c-sum method was the most sensitive (30/36 months), followed by the WHO method (12/24 months). We conclude that triggering public health action based on signals detected by a single method may be inefficient and overly simplistic for monkeypox. We propose instead a response algorithm that integrates an objective threshold (WHO method) with contextual information about epidemiological and spatiotemporal links between suspected cases to determine whether a response should be operating under i) routine surveillance ii) alert status, or iii) outbreak status. This framework could be modified and adopted by national and zone level health workers in monkeypox-endemic countries. Lastly, we discuss considerations for selecting thresholds for monkeypox outbreaks across gradients of endemicity and public health resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The ‘DREAMS Partnership’ promotes a multi-sectoral approach to reduce adolescent girls and young women’s (AGYW) vulnerability through a core package of interventions targeting multiple sources of HIV risk–to promote Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe (DREAMS) lives. Implementation of such multi-sectoral programmes is complex and requires adaptation to national and local contexts. We describe the early implementation of DREAMS in diverse settings, to identify lessons for the scale-up and replication of combination programmes for young people. Methods: As part of evaluations underway in six DREAMS sites in three countries (Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe), we draw on process evaluation data collected from focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and in-depth interviews with beneficiaries, parents/caregivers, programme managers and opinion leaders. Additionally, structured observations were conducted and Gantt charts completed upon consultation with implementers. We concurrently reviewed documentation available on DREAMS and held cross-site discussions to interpret findings. Findings: All sites sought to implement all components of the DREAMS core package, but how and when they were implemented varied by context. Models of delivery differed, with either multiple or single partners responsible for some or all interventions. Key challenges included the urgent and ambitious expectations of DREAMS; ‘layering’ multiple interventions across different sectors (health, education, social welfare); supporting individuals’ journeys between services to improve uptake and retention; engaging communities beyond direct beneficiaries; avoiding perceived/actual exclusivity; and ensuring continuity of commitment and funding for DREAMS. Despite significant challenges, DREAMS was well-received in the communities and perceived by both beneficiaries and implementers to empower AGYW to remain HIV negative. Structures, protocols and tools were introduced to strengthen referrals and deliver services targeted to the age and circumstances of young people. Conclusions: The benefits of combinations or integrated ‘packages’ of interventions are increasingly recognised. Early implementation of DREAMS provides useful lessons for improving coordination across multiple partners using a phased, systematic approach, regular adaptions to each unique context, and ensuring community ownership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Given that dengue disease is growing and may progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), data on economic cost and disease burden are important. However, data for Mexico are limited. Methodology/Principal findings: Burden of dengue fever (DF) and DHF in Mexico was assessed using official databases for epidemiological information, disabilities weights from Shepard et al, the reported number of cases and deaths, and costs. Overall costs of dengue were summed from direct medical costs to the health system, cost of dengue to the patient (out-of-pocket expenses [medical and non-medical], indirect costs [loss of earnings, patient and/or caregiver]), and other government expenditures on prevention/surveillance. The first three components, calculated as costs per case by a micro-costing approach (PAATI; program, actions, activities, tasks, inputs), were scaled up to overall cost using epidemiology data from official databases. PAATI was used to calculate cost of vector control and prevention, education, and epidemiological surveillance, based on an expert consensus and normative construction of an ideal scenario. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Mexico in 2016 were calculated to be 2283.46 (1.87 per 100,000 inhabitants). Overall economic impact of dengue in Mexico for 2012 was US$144 million, of which US$44 million corresponded to direct medical costs and US$5 million to the costs from the patient’s perspective. The estimated cost of prevention/surveillance was calculated with information provided by federal government to be US$95 million. The overall economic impact of DF and DHF showed an increase in 2013 to US$161 million and a decrease to US$133, US$131 and US$130 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The medical and economic impact of dengue were in agreement with other international studies, and highlight the need to include governmental expenditure for prevention/surveillance in overall cost analyses given the high economic impact of these, increasing the necessity to evaluate its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tathmini GBV study was a cluster randomized trial to assess the impact of a comprehensive health facility- and community-based program delivered through the HIV/AIDS program platform on reduction in gender-based violence and improved care for survivors. Twelve health facilities and surrounding communities in the Mbeya Region of Tanzania were randomly assigned to intervention or control arms. Population-level effects were measured through two cross-sectional household surveys of women ages 15–49, at baseline (n = 1,299) and at 28 months following program scale-out (n = 1,250). Delivery of gender-based violence services was assessed through routine recording in health facility registers. Generalized linear mixed effects models and analysis of variance were used to test intervention effects on population and facility outcomes, respectively. At baseline, 52 percent of women reported experience of recent intimate partner violence. The odds of reporting experience of this violence decreased by 29 percent from baseline to follow-up in the absence of the intervention (time effect OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.57–0.89). While the intervention contributed an additional 15 percent reduction, the effect was not statistically significant. The program, however, was found to contribute to positive, community-wide changes including less tolerance for certain forms of violence, more gender equitable norms, better knowledge about gender-based violence, and increased community actions to address violence. The program also led to increased utilization of gender-based violence services at health facilities. Nearly three times as many client visits for gender-based violence were recorded at intervention (N = 1,427) compared to control (N = 489) facilities over a 16-month period. These visits were more likely to include provision of an HIV test (55.3% vs. 19.6%, p = .002). The study demonstrated the feasibility and impact of integrating gender-based violence and HIV programming to combat both of these major public health problems. Further opportunities to scale out GBV prevention and response strategies within HIV/AIDS service delivery platforms should be pursued. Trial Registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry No. . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent developments in the social epidemiological literature indicate that health inequalities between the employed and the unemployed are widening in many advanced capitalist countries. At present, we know relatively little about why these inequalities are worsening. Drawing on nationally-representative data from the largest health survey in Canada, we explored this question by analyzing changes in self-rated health inequalities between employed and unemployed Canadians from 2000 to 2014. Using a regression-based method that decomposes a given inequality into its component sources, we investigated the extent to which risk factors that account for unemployment-related health inequalities at a single point in time can also explain the extent and direction of change in these unemployment-related health inequalities over time. Our results indicate that relative and absolute health inequalities between employed and unemployed Canadians widened over the study period. Between 2000 and 2014, the prevalence of poor self-rated health among unemployed Canadians increased from 10.8% to 14.6%, while rates among employed Canadians were stable at around 6%. Our findings suggest that the demographic, socioeconomic, and proximal risk factors that are routinely used to explain unemployment-related health inequalities may not be as powerful for explaining how and why these inequalities change over time. In the case of unemployment-related health inequalities in Canada, these risk factors explain neither the increasing prevalence of poor self-rated health among the unemployed nor the growing gap between the unemployed and their employed counterparts. We provide several possible explanations for these puzzling findings. We conclude by suggesting that widening health inequalities may be driven by macrosocial trends (e.g. widening income inequality and declining social safety nets) which have changed the meaning and context of unemployment, as well as its associated risk factors, in ways that are not easy to capture using routinely available survey data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A tuberculosis (TB) model that accounts for heterogeneity in host susceptibility to tuberculosis is proposed, with the aim of investigating the implications this may have for the effectiveness of public health interventions. The model examines the possibility that recovered individuals treated from active TB and individuals treated with preventive therapy acquire different levels of immunity. This contrasts with recent studies that assume the two cohorts acquire the same level of immunity, and therefore both groups are reinfected at the same rate. The analysis presented here examines the impact of this assumption when designing intervention strategies. Comparison of reinfection rates between cohorts treated with preventive therapy and recovered individuals who were previously treated for active TB provides important epidemiological insights. It is found that the reinfection rate of the cohort treated with preventive therapy is the one that plays the key role in qualitative changes in TB dynamics. By contrast, the reinfection rate of recovered individuals (previously treated from active TB) plays a minor role. Moreover, the study shows that preventive treatment of individuals during early latency is always beneficial regardless of the level of susceptibility to reinfection. Further, if patients have greater immunity following treatment for late latent infection, then treatment is again beneficial. However, if susceptibility increases following treatment for late latent infection, the effect of treatment depends on the epidemiological setting. That is: (i) in (very) low burden settings, the effect on reactivation predominates and the burden declines with treatment; (ii) in moderate to high burden settings the effect of reinfection predominates and burden increases with treatment. The effect is most dominant between the two reinfection thresholds, RT2 and RT1, respectively associated with individuals being treated with preventive therapy and individuals with untreated late latent TB infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peer education with micro-planning has been integral to scaling up key population (KP) HIV/STI programmes in Kenya since 2013. Micro-planning reinforces community cohesion within peer networks and standardizes programme inputs, processes and targets for outreach, including peer educator (PE) workloads. We assessed programme performance for outreach–in relation to the mean number of KPs for which one PE is responsible (KP:PE ratio)–and effects on HIV/STI service utilisation. Quarterly programmatic monitoring data were analysed from October 2013 to September 2016 from implementing partners working with female sex workers (FSWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM) across the country. All implementing partners are expected to follow national guidelines and receive micro-planning training for PEs with support from a Technical Support Unit for KP programmes. We examined correlations between KP:PE ratios and regular outreach contacts, condom distribution, risk reduction counselling, STI screening, HIV testing and violence reporting by KPs. Kenya conducted population size estimates (PSEs) of KPs in 2012. From 2013 to 2016, KP programmes were scaled up to reach 85% of FSWs (PSE 133,675) and 90% of MSM (PSE 18,460). Overall, mean KP:PE ratios decreased from 147 to 91 for FSWs, and from 79 to 58 for MSM. Lower KP:PE ratios, up to 90:1 for FSW and 60:1 for MSM, were significantly associated with more regular outreach contacts (p<0.001), as well as more frequent risk reduction counselling (p<0.001), STI screening (p<0.001) and HIV testing (p<0.001). Condom distribution and reporting of violence by KPs did not differ significantly between the two groups over all time periods. Micro-planning with adequate KP:PE ratios is an effective approach to scaling up HIV prevention programmes among KPs, resulting in high levels of programme uptake and service utilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To understand the value of information on vaccine inventory levels during an influenza pandemic, we propose a simulation study to compare vaccine allocation strategies using: (i) only population information (pro-rata, or population-based, PB), (ii) both population and vaccine inventory information (population and inventory-based, PIB). Methods: We adapt an agent-based simulation model to predict the spread of the disease both geographically and temporally. We study PB and PIB when uptake rates vary geographically. The simulation study is done from 2015 to 2017, using population and commuting data from the state of Georgia from the United States census. Findings: Compared to PB under reasonable scenarios, PIB reduces the infection attack rate from 23.4% to 22.4%, decreases the amount of leftover inventory from 827 to 152 thousand, and maintains or increases the percentage of vaccinated population. Conclusions: Our results indicate the need for greater vaccine inventory visibility in public health supply chains, especially when supply is limited, and uptake rates vary geographically. Such visibility has a potential to decrease the number of infections, help identify locations with low uptake rates and to motivate public awareness efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peter Godfrey-Faussett and colleagues present six epidemiological metrics for tracking progress in reducing the public health threat of HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although most countries in the WHO European Region were verified in 2017 as having interrupted endemic measles transmission, nine countries were still endemic. Among these, Italy accounted for the second highest number of measles cases reported in Europe in 2017. The elimination of measles is verified at national level by each country’s National Verification Committee (NVC) through the production of an Annual Status Update (ASU). Since in Italy decentralization has led to an inhomogeneous implementation of immunization strategies among the 21 administrative Regions, the Italian NVC proposed that measles elimination should also be documented at the subnational level through regional ASUs and Synthetic Regional Reports (SRRs). The regional ASUs and the SRRs for 2014, 2015 and 2016 were produced and appraised by the NVC to evaluate the Regions’ performances in each individual year as well as over the whole period. A specific analysis of vaccination coverage, including official immunization data for 2017, was performed. Moreover, the measles epidemic of 2017 was examined. Firstly, in the period 2014–2016, low immunization rates were registered in most Regions. Sixty-three per cent of southern Regions reported rates below the national mean and an overall low-quality performance. The approval of Italy’s mandatory vaccination law in 2017 resulted in a marked increase in vaccination coverage; however, this increase was not homogeneous among Regions. Secondly, more than 50% of Regions did not report any supplemental immunization activity (SIA) for the period 2014–2016. Thirdly, from 2014 to 2016, fewer than one-third of Regions improved their reporting of outbreaks. Finally, over the study period, only two Regions reached the target required by the WHO for measles laboratory investigations. In countries with decentralized health policies, subnational monitoring can help identify local barriers to measles elimination. In Italy it has highlighted the need for further SIAs and a stronger surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Financial protection is a key dimension of universal health coverage. Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) has increased in India over time. The overall figures mask the subnational heterogeneity crucial for designing insurance coverage for 1.3 billion population across India. We estimated CHE in every state of India and the changes over a decade. Methods: We used National Sample Survey data on health care utilisation in 2004 and 2014. The states were placed in four groups based on epidemiological transition level (ETL), defined on the basis of ratio of disability-adjusted life-years from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL state group. CHE was defined as the proportion of households that had out-of-pocket payments for health care equalling or exceeding 10% of the household expenditure. We assessed variation in the magnitude and distribution of CHE between ETL state groups and between states of India. Results: In 2014, CHE was higher in the high (30.3%, 95% confidence interval: 28.5 to 32.1) and higher-middle (27.4%, 26.3 to 28.6) ETL state groups than the low (21.8%, 20.8 to 22.8) and lower-middle (19.0%, 17.1 to 21.0) groups. From 2004 to 2014, CHE increased only in the high and higher-middle ETL groups (1.19 and 1.34 times, respectively). However, the individual states with substantial increase in CHE were spread across all ETL groups. The gap between the highest CHE of an individual state and the lowest was 8-fold in 2014. CHE was disproportionately concentrated among the rich in 2004 for most of India, but in 2014 CHE was distributed equally among the rich and poor because of the substantial increase in CHE among the poor over time. Conclusions: Better provision of quality health care should be accompanied by financial protection measures to safeguard the poor from increasing CHE in India. The state-specific CHE trends can provide useful input for the planning of the recently launched National Health Protection Mission such that it meets the requirement of each state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In countries with universal health coverage (UHC), national public health insurances cover 70% of health expenditures on average, but health care user fees and out-of-pocket expenditures have been neglected in empirical patient-centered health inequality research. This study is the first to investigate how health care-related factors are associated with health status among middle-aged and elderly people—vulnerable groups for the burden of illness—in countries with UHC. Design: Longitudinal observational cohort study. Setting: Population-based cohort Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) in twelve countries with UHC. Participants: Non-institutionalized people aged 50 and older (n = 29,260). Two subsamples were also used: participants without global activity limitation at baseline (n = 16,879) and participants without depression at baseline (n = 21,178). Main outcome measures: Risk of death, risk of global activity limitations, and risk of depression. We used mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards regressions to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause mortality, physical limitations, and depression. Results: Having a voluntary private insurance to cover health expenses not included in the public health care system (44.1% of the total sample) was a protective factor for all outcomes (HR≤0.91), controlling for a large range of socio-economic variables. On the contrary, having out-of-pocket expenditures (62.4%) was a risk factor (HR≥1.12). Conclusions: UHC systems are not free from health inequalities: there is a potential effect of lack of voluntary private insurance and out-of-pocket expenditures on mortality and health. Health care-related factors should be at focus in future researches designed to understand and address health inequalities. Reducing out-of-pocket expenditures and developing voluntary private insurance may protect against premature illness and death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kenya National AIDS and STI Control Programme (NASCOP) conducted annual polling booth surveys (PBS) in 2014 and 2015 to measure outcomes from the national HIV prevention programme for key populations (KPs), comprising behavioural, biomedical and structural interventions. KPs included female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID). We compared survey results from the first and second rounds. Comparing the second to the first round, significantly more FSWs (93% vs. 88%, p<0.001) and MSM (77% vs. 58%, p<0.001) reported condom use at last sex with a paying client, and at last anal sex among MSM (80% vs. 77%, p<0.05) and PWID (48% vs. 27%, p<0.01). However, condom use with regular partners remained low, at less than 53% for FSWs and 69% for MSM. Among PWID, there was a significant increase in use of new needles and syringes at last injection (93% vs. 88%, p<0.001), and a significant decrease in reported non-availability of clean needles (23% vs. 36%, p<0.001). The number of overdoses in the past six months reduced significantly but remained high (40% vs. 51%, p<0.001). FSWs and MSM reported significantly higher HIV testing, and in all KP groups, over 93% reported ever having been tested for HIV. Among the respondents self-reporting to have tested HIV positive (24% of FSW, 22% of MSM and 19% of PWID), 80% of FSWs, 70% of MSM, and 73% of PWID reported currently taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). While the experience of forced intercourse by partners declined among FSWs (18% vs. 22%, p<0.01) and MSM (13% vs. 17%, p<0.01), more FSWs reported violence by law enforcement personnel (49% vs. 44%, p<0.001). These findings provide valuable information on the programme’s progress, and a signpost for the integrated behavioural, biomedical and structural interventions to achieve their HIV prevention targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk maps of dengue disease offer to the public health officers a tool to model disease risk in space and time. We analyzed the geographical distribution of relative incidence risk of dengue disease in a high incidence city from Colombia, and its evolution in time during the period January 2009—December 2015, identifying regional effects at different levels of spatial aggregations. Cases of dengue disease were geocoded and spatially allocated to census sectors, and temporally aggregated by epidemiological periods. The census sectors are nested in administrative divisions defined as communes, configuring two levels of spatial aggregation for the dengue cases. Spatio-temporal models including census sector and commune-level spatially structured random effects were fitted to estimate dengue incidence relative risks using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) technique. The final selected model included two-level spatial random effects, a global structured temporal random effect, and a census sector-level interaction term. Risk maps by epidemiological period and risk profiles by census sector were generated from the modeling process, showing the transmission dynamics of the disease. All the census sectors in the city displayed high risk at some epidemiological period in the outbreak periods. Relative risk estimation of dengue disease using INLA offered a quick and powerful method for parameter estimation and inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on previous observations during pandemics and seasonal epidemics, pregnant women are considered at risk of developing severe influenza outcomes after influenza infection. With the aim of preventing severe influenza illness, the World Health Organization (WHO) includes pregnant women as a target group for seasonal influenza vaccination. However, influenza vaccine uptake during pregnancy remains low in many countries, including Spain. The objectives of this study were to increase the evidence of pregnancy as a risk factor for severe influenza illness and to study the potential role of seasonal influenza vaccination in the prevention of severe outcomes in infected pregnant women. Using information from the surveillance of Severe Hospitalized Confirmed Influenza Cases (SHCIC) in Spain, from seasons 2010/11 to 2015/16, we estimated that pregnant women in our study had a relative risk of hospitalization with severe influenza nearly 7.8 times higher than non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Only 5 out of 167 pregnant women with known vaccination status in our study had been vaccinated (3.6%). Such extremely low vaccination coverage only allowed obtaining crude estimates suggesting a protective effect of the vaccine against influenza complications (ICU admission or death). Our overall results support that pregnant women could benefit from seasonal influenza vaccination, in line with national and international recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]