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Background: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease neglected, caused by Mycobacterium leprae, considered a public health problem because may cause permanent physical disabilities and deformities, leading to severe limitations. This review presents an overview of the results of epidemiological studies on leprosy occurrence in childhood in Brazil, aiming to alert health planners and managers to the actual need to institute special control strategies. Methodology/Principal findings: Data collection consisted of an electronic search for publications in eight databases: Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS), Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), PuBMed, Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde (BVS), SciVerse Scopus (Scopus), CAPES theses database, CAPES journals database and Web of Science of papers published up to 2016. After apply selection criteria, twenty-two papers of studies conducted in four different regions of Brazil and published between 2001 and 2016 were included in the review. The leprosy detection rate ranged from 10.9 to 78.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite affecting both sexes, leprosy was more common in boys and in 10-14-year-olds. Although the authors reported a high cure proportion (82–90%), between 1.7% and 5.5% of the individuals developed a disability resulting from the disease. Conclusions/Significance: The findings of this review shows that leprosy situation in Brazilian children under 15 years is extremely adverse in that the leprosy detection rate remains high in the majority of studies. The proportion of cases involving disability is also high and reflects the difficulties and the poor effectiveness of actions aimed at controlling the disease. The authors suggest the development of studies in spatial clusters of leprosy, where beyond the routine actions established, are included news strategies of active search and campaigns and actions of educations inside the clusters of this disease. The new agenda needs to involve the precepts of ethical, humane and supportive care, in order to achieve a new level of leprosy control in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), the most common chronic complication of diabetes, has become an important public health crisis worldwide. Given that DPN is extremely difficult to treat, determining its risk factors and controlling it at an early stage is critical to preventing its serious consequences and the burden of social disease. Current studies suggest that the risk factors for diabetic peripheral neuropathy are the duration of diabetes, age, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), diabetic retinopathy (DR), smoking, and body mass Index (BMI). However, most of the aforementioned studies are cross-sectional, and the sample sizes are very limited, so the strength of causal reasoning is relatively low. The current study systematically evaluated DPN’s influencing factors in patients with type 2 diabetes using evidence-based medicine. Overall, 16 included studies (14 cross-sectional studies and 2 case-control studies including 12,116 cases) that conformed to the present criteria were included in the final analysis. The results suggested that the duration of diabetes (MD 2.5, 95% CI 1.71~3.29), age (MD 4.00, 95% CI 3.05~4.95), HbA1c (MD 0.48, 95% CI 0.33~0.64), and DR (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.74~3.16) are associated with significantly increased risks of DPN among diabetic patients, while BMI, smoking, total triglyceride (TG), and total cholesterol (TC) did not indicate any risks of increasing DPN. The findings provide a scientific basis for a further understanding of the causes of type 2 diabetes complicated with peripheral neuropathy and the improvement of preventive strategies. The next step is to conduct further high-quality prospective cohort studies to validate this paper’s findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The establishment of trust between researchers and participants is critical to advance HIV and HCV prevention particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID) and other marginalized populations, yet empirical research on how to establish and maintain trust in the course of community health research is lacking. This paper documents ideas about trust between research participants and researchers amongst a sub-sample of PWID who were enrolled in a large, multi-year community health study of social networks and HIV/HCV risk that was recently conducted in rural Puerto Rico. Methods: Qualitative research was nested within a multi-year Social Network and HIV/HCV Risk study involving N = 360 PWID > 18 years of age living in four small, rural Puerto Rican communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between March 2017 and April 2017 with a subset of 40 active PWID who had been enrolled in the parent study. Interview questions invited participants to draw upon their recent experience as research participants to better understand how PWID perceive and understand participant-researcher trust within the context of HIV/HCV-related epidemiological research. Results: Fear of police, stigma and concerns regarding confidentiality and anonymity were identified as structural factors that could compromise participation in HIV/HCV-related research for PWID. While monetary compensation was an important motivation, participants also valued the opportunity to learn about their HIV/HCV status. During their participation in the study, gaining knowledge of safe injection practices was perceived as a valuable benefit. Participant narratives suggested that PWID may adopt an incremental and ongoing approach in their assessment of the trustworthiness of researchers, continuously assessing the extent to which they trust the research staff throughout the course of the research. Trust was initially generated through peer Respondent Driven Sampling recruitment. Research staff who maintained a presence in the community for the entire duration of the prospective study reinforced trust between participants and the research team. Conclusion: Although PWID face numerous structural barriers to research-related trust in HIV/HCV research, we found that using a peer-based recruitment method like RDS, and employing a research staff who are knowledgeable about the targeted population, culturally sensitive to their needs, and who maintain a long-term presence in the community may help mitigate many of these barriers. The reputation of the research is built incrementally as participants join the study. This contributes to a “street reputation” that grows as current or former participants vouch for the study. Establishing trust was identified as only the first step towards building a collaborative relationship with participants, and our findings suggest that steps to address criminalization and stigmatization also are necessary to support research trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 2011 a large outbreak of typhoid fever affected an estimated 1430 people in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak started in military camps in the city but then spread to the general population. This paper reports the results of an ecological analysis and a case-control study undertaken to examine water and other possible transmission pathways. Attack rates were determined for health areas and risk ratios were estimated with respect to spatial exposures. Approximately 15 months after the outbreak, demographic, environmental and exposure data were collected for 320 cases and 640 controls residing in the worst affected areas, using a structured interview questionnaire. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated. Complete data were available for 956 respondents. Residents of areas with water supplied via gravity on the mains network were at much greater risk of disease acquisition (risk ratio = 6.20, 95%CI 3.39–11.35) than residents of areas not supplied by this mains network. In the case control study, typhoid was found to be associated with ever using tap water from the municipal supply (OR = 4.29, 95% CI 2.20–8.38). Visible urine or faeces in the latrine was also associated with increased risk of typhoid and having chosen a water source because it is protected was negatively associated. Knowledge that washing hands can prevent typhoid fever, and stated habit of handwashing habits before cooking or after toileting was associated with increased risk of disease. However, observed associations between handwashing or plate-sharing with disease risk could very likely be due to recall bias. This outbreak of typhoid fever was strongly associated with drinking water from the municipal drinking water supply, based on the descriptive and analytic epidemiology and the finding of high levels of faecal contamination of drinking water. Future outbreaks of potentially waterborne disease need an integrated response that includes epidemiology and environmental microbiology during early stages of the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could benefit from policies and intervention strategies that are tailored to the local geographic areas' profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has identified the impacts of legal frameworks that criminalize HIV non-disclosure among people living with HIV (e.g., elevated stigma and violence). However, far less is known about the perspectives or experiences of people–particularly, men–who are HIV-seronegative or who are unaware of their status. The objective of this paper is to describe the health and social risks that young men perceive to be associated with an HIV diagnosis in the context of Canada’s current legal framework pertaining to HIV non-disclosure. Methods: We analyzed data from 100 in-depth interviews (2013–2016) conducted with 85 young men ages 18–30 in Vancouver on the topic of the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure. Results: Our analysis revealed two dominant narratives in relation to HIV criminalization: (a) interrogation and (b) justification. An interrogation narrative problematized the moral permissibility of criminalizing HIV non-disclosure. In this narrative, Canada’s HIV non-disclosure legal framework was characterized as creating unjust barriers to HIV testing uptake, as well as impeding access to and reducing retention in care for those living with HIV. Conversely, a justification narrative featured a surprising number of references to HIV as a “death sentence”, despite effective treatments being universally available in Canada. However, most of those who presented the justification narrative asserted that the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure was morally justified in light of the perceived negative stigma-related impacts of HIV (e.g., discrimination; being ostracized from sex or romantic partners, friends, family). The justification narrative often reflected a belief that the legal framework provides both punishment and deterrence, which were perceived to supersede any barriers to care for both HIV-positive and -negative individuals. Conclusion: Public education regarding contemporary medical advances in HIV may help contest lay understandings of HIV as a “death sentence”, which is particularly relevant to destabilizing justification narratives. However, significant strengthening of HIV stigma-reduction efforts will be needed to move society away from narratives that attempt to justify Canada’s current HIV non-disclosure legal framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increased prevalence of cancer, respiratory diseases, and reproductive disorders, for which multifactorial origins are strongly suspected, the impact of the environment on the population represents a substantial public health challenge. Surveillance systems have become an essential public health decision-making tool. Networks have been constructed to facilitate the development of analyses of the multifactorial aspects of the relationships between occupational contexts and health. The aim of this study is to develop and present an approach for the optimal exploitation of observational databases to describe and improve the understanding of the (occupational) environment–health relationships, taking into account key multifactorial aspects. We have developed a spectral analysis (SA) approach that takes into account both the multi-exposure and dynamic natures of occupational health problems (OHPs) and related associations. The main results of this paper are to present the construction method of the “spectrum” and “spectrosome” of OHPs (range and structured list of occupational exposures) and describe the information contained therein with an illustrative example. The approach is illustrated using the case of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from the French National Occupational Diseases Surveillance and Prevention Network database as a working example of an occupational disease. We found that the NHL spectrum includes 40 sets of occupational exposures characterized by important multi-exposures, especially solvent combinations or pesticide combinations, but also specific exposures such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde and ionizing radiation. These findings may be useful for surveillance and the assessment of occupational exposure related to health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In August 2011, the German Protection against Infection Act was amended, mandating the reporting of healthcare associated infection (HAI) outbreak notifications by all healthcare workers in Germany via local public health authorities and federal states to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Objective: To describe the reported HAI-outbreaks and the surveillance system’s structure and capabilities. Methods: Information on each outbreak was collected using standard paper forms and notified to RKI. Notifications were screened daily and regularly analysed. Results: Between November 2011 and November 2012, 1,326 paper forms notified 578 HAI-outbreaks, between 7 and 116 outbreaks per month. The main causative agent was norovirus (n = 414/578; 72%). Among the 108 outbreaks caused by bacteria, the most frequent pathogens were Clostridium difficile (25%) Klebsiella spp. (19%) and Staphylococcus spp. (19%). Multidrug-resistant bacteria were responsible for 54/108 (50%) bacterial outbreaks. Hospitals were affected most frequently (485/578; 84%). Hospital outbreaks due to bacteria were mostly reported from intensive care units (ICUs) (45%), followed by internal medicine wards (16%). Conclusion: The mandatory HAI-outbreak surveillance system describes common outbreaks. Pathogens with a particular high potential to cause large or severe outbreaks may be identified, enabling us to further focus research and preventive measures. Increasing the sensitivity and reliability of the data collection further will facilitate identification of outbreaks able to increase in size and severity, and guide specific control measures to interrupt their propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: In October 2012, the Haitian Ministry of Health endorsed the “Option B+” strategy to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV and achieve HIV epidemic control. The objective of this paper is to assess and identify risk factors for attrition from the national ART program among Option B+ patients in the 12 months after ART initiation. Design: This retrospective cohort study included patients newly initiating ART from October 2012-August 2013 at 68 ART sites covering 45% of all newly enrolled ART patients in all regions of Haiti. Methods: With data from electronic medical records, we carried out descriptive analysis of sociodemographic, clinical, and pregnancy-related correlates of ART attrition, and used a modified Poisson regression approach to estimate relative risks in a multivariable model. Results: There were 2,166 Option B+ patients who initiated ART, of whom 1,023 were not retained by 12 months (47.2%). One quarter (25.3%) dropped out within 3 months of ART initiation. Protective factors included older age, more advanced HIV disease progression, and any adherence counseling prior to ART initiation, while risk factors included starting ART late in gestation, starting ART within 7 days of HIV testing, and using an atypical ART regimen. Discussion: Our study demonstrates early ART attrition among Option B+ patients and contributes evidence on the characteristics of women who are most at risk of attrition in Haiti. Our findings highlight the importance of targeted strategies to support retention among Option B+ patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the number of people newly infected by HIV is continuing to decline globally, the epidemic continues to expand in many parts of the world. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic has matured in many countries, it is believed that the proportion of new infections occurring within couples has risen. Across countries, including Mozambique, a sizeable proportion of couples with HIV infection are discordant. A serodiscordant couple is a couple in which one partner has tested positive for HIV and the other has not. To describe the HIV serodiscordance among couples, a variety of association measures can be used. In this paper, we propose the serodiscordance measure as a new alternative measure. Focus is on the specification of flexible marginal and random effects models for multivariate correlated binary data together with a full-likelihood estimation method, to adequately and directly describe the measure of interest. Fitting joint models allows examining the effects of different risk factors and other covariates on the probability to be HIV positive for each member within a couple, and estimating common effects for both probabilities more efficiently, while accounting for the association between their infection status. Moreover, the interpretation of the proposed association parameter SDM is more direct and relevant and effects of covariates can be studied as well. Results show that the HIV prevalence for the province where a couple was located as well as the union number for the woman within a couple are factors associated with HIV serodiscordance. These findings are important for the Mozambican public health policy makers to design national prevention plans, which include policies to stimulate regular HIV testing for couples as well as adolescents and young adults, prior to getting married or living together as a couple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bangladesh had one of the highest burdens of lymphatic filariasis (LF) at the start of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) with an estimated 70 million people at risk of infection across 34 districts. In total 19 districts required mass drug administration (MDA) to interrupt transmission, and 15 districts were considered low endemic. Since 2001, the National LF Programme has implemented MDA, reduced prevalence, and been able to scale up the WHO standard Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) across all endemic districts as part of its endgame surveillance strategy. This paper presents TAS results, highlighting the momentous geographical reduction in risk of LF and its contribution to the global elimination target of 2020. Methodology/Principal findings: The TAS assessed primary school children for the presence of LF antigenaemia in each district (known as an evaluation unit—EU), using a defined critical cut-off threshold (or ‘pass’) that indicates interruption of transmission. Since 2011, a total of 59 TAS have been conducted in 26 EUs across the 19 endemic MDA districts (99,148 students tested from 1,801 schools), and 22 TAS in the 15 low endemic non-MDA districts (36,932 students tested from 663 schools). All endemic MDA districts passed TAS, except in Rangpur which required two further rounds of MDA. In total 112 students (male n = 59; female n = 53), predominately from the northern region of the country were found to be antigenaemia positive, indicating a recent or current infection. However, the distribution was geographically sparse, with only two small focal areas showing potential evidence of persistent transmission. Conclusions/Significance: This is the largest scale up of TAS surveillance activities reported in any of the 73 LF endemic countries in the world. Bangladesh is now considered to have very low or no risk of LF infection after 15 years of programmatic activities, and is on track to meet elimination targets. However, it will be essential that the LF Programme continues to develop and maintain a comprehensive surveillance strategy that is integrated into the health infrastructure and ongoing programmes to ensure cost-effectiveness and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of miRNA-disease association is a fundamental challenge in human health clinic. However, the known miRNA-disease associations are rare and experimental verification methods are expensive and time-consuming. Therefore, there is a strong incentive to develop computational methods. In this paper, we calculate the similarity score for each miRNAs pair by integrating miRNA functional similarity and miRNA family information. We use the disease phenotype similarity data to construct the disease similarity network. Then we introduce a new miRNA-disease association prediction method (NETwork Group Similarity, NetGS) to explore the global network similarity, capturing the relationship between the disease and other diseases, the similarity between the potential disease-related miRNA and other miRNAs. Finally based on the consistency of diffusion profiles we get the miRNA-disease association scores. NetGS is tested by the leave-one-out cross validation and achieves an AUC value of 0.8450, which improves the prediction accuracy. NetGS can also be applied to solve the new miRNA-disease association and obtain reliable accuracy. Moreover, we use NetGS to predict new causing miRNAs of three cancers including breast cancer, lung cancer and Hepatocellular cancer. And the top predictions have been confirmed in the online databases. The encouraging results indicate that NetGS might play an essential role for future scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue virus (and Chikungunya and Zika viruses) is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and causes considerable human morbidity and mortality. As there is currently no vaccine or chemoprophylaxis to protect people from dengue virus infection, vector control is the only viable option for disease prevention. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the design and placement process for an attractive lethal ovitrap to reduce vector populations and to describe lessons learned in the development of the trap. Methods: This study was conducted in 2010 in Iquitos, Peru and Lopburi Province, Thailand and used an iterative community-based participatory approach to adjust design specifications of the trap, based on community members’ perceptions and feedback, entomological findings in the lab, and design and research team observations. Multiple focus group discussions (FGD) were held over a 6 month period, stratified by age, sex and motherhood status, to inform the design process. Trap testing transitioned from the lab to within households. Results: Through an iterative process of working with specifications from the research team, findings from the laboratory testing, and feedback from FGD, the design team narrowed trap design options from 22 to 6. Comments from the FGD centered on safety for children and pets interacting with traps, durability, maintenance issues, and aesthetics. Testing in the laboratory involved releasing groups of 50 gravid Ae. aegypti in walk-in rooms and assessing what percentage were caught in traps of different colors, with different trap cover sizes, and placed under lighter or darker locations. Two final trap models were mocked up and tested in homes for a week; one model was the top choice in both Iquitos and Lopburi. Discussion: The community-based participatory process was essential for the development of novel traps that provided effective vector control, but also met the needs and concerns of community members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods: In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results: The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion: Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (also known as kala-azar) is classified as one of the most neglected tropical diseases. It is becoming a growing health problem in Ethiopia, with endemic areas that are continually spreading. The annual burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Ethiopia is estimated to be between 4,500 and 5,000 cases, and the population at risk is more than 3.2 million. There has been a change in the epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia. Over the last decades, almost all cases and outbreaks of VL were reported from arid and semi-arid parts of the country; however, recent reports indicated the introduction of this disease into the highlands. Migration of labourers to and from endemic areas, climatic and environmental changes, and impaired immunity due to HIV/AIDS and malnutrition resulted in the change of VL epidemiology. HIV spurs the spread of VL by increasing the risk of progression from asymptomatic infection towards full VL. Conversely, VL accelerates the onset of AIDS. In Ethiopia, VL epidemiology remains complex because of the diversity of risk factors involved, and its control is becoming an increasing challenge. This paper reviews the changes in epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia and discusses some of the possible explanations for these changes. The prospects for novel approaches to VL control are discussed, as are the current and future challenges facing Ethiopia's public health development program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improved understanding and quantification of social contact patterns that govern the transmission dynamics of respiratory viral infections has utility in the design of preventative and control measures such as vaccination and social distancing. The objective of this study was to quantify an age-specific matrix of contact rates for a predominantly rural low-income population that would support transmission dynamic modeling of respiratory viruses. Methods and Findings: From the population register of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, coastal Kenya, 150 individuals per age group (<1, 1–5, 6–15, 16–19, 20–49, 50 and above, in years) were selected by stratified random sampling and requested to complete a day long paper diary of physical contacts (e.g. touch or embrace). The sample was stratified by residence (rural-to-semiurban), month (August 2011 to January 2012, spanning seasonal changes in socio-cultural activities), and day of week. Usable diary responses were obtained from 568 individuals (∼50% of expected). The mean number of contacts per person per day was 17.7 (95% CI 16.7–18.7). Infants reported the lowest contact rates (mean 13.9, 95% CI 12.1–15.7), while primary school students (6–15 years) reported the highest (mean 20.1, 95% CI 18.0–22.2). Rates of contact were higher within groups of similar age (assortative), particularly within the primary school students and adults (20–49 years). Adults and older participants (>50 years) exhibited the highest inter-generational contacts. Rural contact rates were higher than semiurban (18.8 vs 15.6, p = 0.002), with rural primary school students having twice as many assortative contacts as their semiurban peers. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first age-specific contact matrix to be defined for tropical Sub-Saharan Africa and has utility in age-structured models to assess the potential impact of interventions for directly transmitted respiratory infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Social capital has been studied due to its contextual influence on health. However, no specific assessment tool has been developed and validated for the measurement of social capital among 12-year-old adolescent students. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a quick, simple assessment tool to measure social capital among adolescent students. Methods: A questionnaire was developed based on a review of relevant literature. For such, searches were made of the Scientific Electronic Library Online, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences, The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Knowledge, International Database for Medical Literature and PubMed Central bibliographical databases from September 2011 to January 2014 for papers addressing assessment tools for the evaluation of social capital. Focus groups were also formed by adolescent students as well as health, educational and social professionals. The final assessment tool was administered to a convenience sample from two public schools (79 students) and one private school (22 students), comprising a final sample of 101 students. Reliability and internal consistency were evaluated using the Kappa coefficient and Cronbach's alpha coefficient, respectively. Content validity was determined by expert consensus as well as exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Results: The final version of the questionnaire was made up of 12 items. The total scale demonstrated very good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.71). Reproducibility was also very good, as the Kappa coefficient was higher than 0.72 for the majority of items (range: 0.63 to 0.97). Factor analysis grouped the 12 items into four subscales: School Social Cohesion, School Friendships, Neighborhood Social Cohesion and Trust (school and neighborhood). Conclusions: The present findings indicate the validity and reliability of the Social Capital Questionnaire for Adolescent Students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies aimed at understanding the association between induced abortion and HIV are scarce and differ on the direction of the association. This paper aims to show the prevalence of induced abortion in a sample of pregnancies of women living and not living with HIV/Aids, determining variables associated with pregnancy termination and linked to the life course of women and to the specific context of the pregnancy. Methods: Data came from a cross-sectional study, using interviewer-administered questionnaire, developed with women that attended public health services in Porto Alegre, Brazil. A generalized estimating equation model with logit link measured the association between determinants and abortion. Findings: The final sample was composed of 684 women living with HIV/Aids (2,039 pregnancies) and 639 women not living with HIV/Aids (1,539 pregnancies). The prevalence of induced abortion among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids was 6.5%, while in women not living with HIV/Aids was 2.9%. Among women living with HIV/Aids, the following were associated with induced abortion in the multivariable analysis: being older, having a higher education level, having had more sexual partners (i.e., variables linked to the life course of women), having had children prior to the index pregnancy and living with a sexual partner during pregnancy (i.e., variables linked to the context of each pregnancy). On the other hand, among women not living with HIV/Aids, only having a higher education level and having had more sexual partners (i.e., determinants linked to the life course of women) were associated with voluntary pregnancy termination in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Although determinants are similar between women living and not living with HIV/Aids, prevalence of induced abortion is higher among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids, pointing to their greater social vulnerability and to the need for public policy to address prevention and treatment of HIV associated with reproductive issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980–1989 and 1990–1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963–6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of . Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849–42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID50 (95% CI 6.6–26.2 bID50) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper by Ximena Paz Aguilera and colleagues is a country case study for the Universal Health Coverage Collection, organized by WHO. It illustrates progress towards UHC and its monitoring and evaluation in Chile. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]