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Background: Adiponectin is an adipocyte-derived hormone that acts as a marker of insulin sensitivity. Bloodspot sampling by fingerstick onto filter paper may increase the feasibility of large-scale studies of the determinants of insulin sensitivity. We first describe the validation of an enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) for quantifying adiponectin from dried blood spots and then demonstrate its application in a large trial (PROBIT). Methods: We quantified adiponectin from 3-mm diameter discs (≈3 µL of blood) punched from dried blood spots obtained from: i) whole blood standards (validation); and ii) PROBIT trial samples (application) in which paediatricians collected blood spots from 13,879 children aged 11.5 years from 31 sites across Belarus. We examined the distribution of bloodspot adiponectin by demographic and anthropometric factors, fasting insulin and glucose. Results: In the validation study, mean intra-assay coefficients of variation (n = 162) were 15%, 13% and 10% for ‘low’ (6.78 µg/ml), ‘medium’ (18.18 µg/ml) and 'high’ (33.13 µg/ml) internal quality control (IQC) samples, respectively; the respective inter-assay values (n = 40) were 23%, 21% and 14%. The correlation coefficient between 50 paired whole bloodspot versus plasma samples, collected simultaneously, was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78 to 0.93). Recovery of known quantities of adiponectin (between 4.5 to 36 µg/ml) was 100.3–133%. Bloodspot adiponectin was stable for at least 30 months at −80°C. In PROBIT, we successfully quantified fasting adiponectin from dried blood spots in 13,329 of 13,879 (96%) children. Mean adiponectin (standard deviation) concentrations were 17.34 µg/ml (7.54) in boys and 18.41 µg/ml (7.92) in girls and were inversely associated with body mass index, fat mass, triceps and subscapular skin-fold thickness, waist circumference, height and fasting glucose. Conclusions: Bloodspot ELISA is suitable for measuring adiponectin in very small volumes of blood collected on filter paper and can be applied to large-scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates political decisions and epidemiological developments. Employing a quantitative approach, this paper examines proportions of votes advocating Brexit with the proportional rates of Covid-19 vaccinations among individuals aged 18 years and above. A discernible pattern suggests a link between lower vaccination rates and pro-Brexit inclinations, validating the theory of disinformation affecting decision-making. This research finds a correlative relationship between political behaviour in voting for Brexit, and epidemiological outcomes measured by the uptake of vaccinations among various urban centres, towns, and local governmental jurisdictions within the United Kingdom. However, the results also show socioeconomic control variables are statistically more significant in predicting vaccination rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wastewater surveillance has been a tool for public health officials throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Universities established pandemic response committees to facilitate safe learning for students, faculty, and staff. These committees met to analyze both wastewater and clinical data to propose mitigation strategies to limit the spread of COVID-19. This paper reviews the initial efforts of utilizing campus data inclusive of wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations, clinical case data from university response teams, and mitigation strategies from Grand Valley State University in West Michigan (population 21,648 students) and Oakland University in East Michigan (population 18,552 students) from November 2020 to April 2022. Wastewater positivity rates for both universities ranged from 32.8 to 46.8%. Peak viral signals for both universities directly corresponded to variant points of entry within the campus populations from 2021 to 2022. It was found that the organization of clinical case data and variability of wastewater testing data were large barriers for both universities to effectively understand disease dynamics within the university population. We review the initial efforts of onboarding wastewater surveillance and provide direction for structuring ongoing surveillance workflows and future epidemic response strategies based on those that led to reduced viral signals in campus wastewater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written about the measurement of socio-economic position (SEP) in high-income countries (HIC). Less has been written for an epidemiology, health systems and public health audience about the measurement of SEP in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The social stratification processes in many LMIC—and therefore the appropriate measurement tools—differ considerably from those in HIC. Many measures of SEP have been utilized in epidemiological studies; the aspects of SEP captured by these measures and the pathways through which they may affect health are likely to be slightly different but overlapping. No single measure of SEP will be ideal for all studies and contexts; the strengths and limitations of a given indicator are likely to vary according to the specific research question. Understanding the general properties of different indicators, however, is essential for all those involved in the design or interpretation of epidemiological studies. In this article, we describe the measures of SEP used in LMIC. We concentrate on measures of individual or household-level SEP rather than area-based or ecological measures such as gross domestic product. We describe each indicator in terms of its theoretical basis, interpretation, measurement, strengths and limitations. We also provide brief comparisons between LMIC and HIC for each measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A well-structured digital database is essential for any national priority project as it can provide real-time data analysis and facilitate quick decision making. In recent times, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, invasive fungal infections (IFIs) have emerged as a significant public health challenge in India, affecting vulnerable population, including immunocompromised individuals. The lack of comprehensive and well-structured data on IFIs has hindered efforts to understand their true burden and optimize patient care. To address this critical knowledge gap, the ICMR has undertaken a Pan-India pioneer initiative to develop a network of Advanced Mycology Diagnostic research centres in different geographical zones of the country (ICMR-MycoNet). Under the aegis of this project, a clinical registry on IFIs in the ICUs is initiated. This process paper presents a detailed account of the steps involved in the establishment of a web-based data entering and monitoring platform to capture data electronically, ensuring robust and secure data collection and management. This system not only allows participating ICMR-MycoNet centres to enter patient information directly into the database using standardized Case Report Form (CRF) but also includes data validation checks to ensure the accuracy and completeness of entered data. It is complemented by a real-time, web-based, and adaptable data visualization platform. This registry aims to provide crucial epidemiological insights, promote evidence-based hospital infection control programs, and ultimately improve patient outcomes in the face of this formidable healthcare challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer remains a significant public health issue, being a leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women globally. Timely diagnosis and efficient treatment are crucial for enhancing patient outcomes, reducing healthcare burdens and advancing community health. This systematic review, following the PRISMA guidelines, aims to comprehensively synthesize the recent advancements in computer-aided diagnosis and treatment for breast cancer. The study covers the latest developments in image analysis and processing, machine learning and deep learning algorithms, multimodal fusion techniques and radiation therapy planning and simulation. The results of the review suggest that machine learning, augmented and virtual reality and data mining are the three major research hotspots in breast cancer management. Moreover, this paper discusses the challenges and opportunities for future research in this field. The conclusion highlights the importance of computer-aided techniques in the management of breast cancer and summarizes the key findings of the review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mercury (Hg) is a chemical of health concern worldwide that is now being acted upon through the Minamata Convention. Operationalizing the Convention and tracking its effectiveness requires empathy of the diversity and variation of mercury exposure and risk in populations worldwide. As part of the health plenary for the 15th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP), this review paper details how scientific understandings have evolved over time, from tragic poisoning events in the mid-twentieth century to important epidemiological studies in the late-twentieth century in the Seychelles and Faroe Islands, the Arctic and Amazon. Entering the twenty-first century, studies on diverse source-exposure scenarios (e.g., ASGM, amalgams, contaminated sites, cosmetics, electronic waste) from across global regions have expanded understandings and exemplified the need to consider socio-environmental variables and local contexts when conducting health studies. We conclude with perspectives on next steps for mercury health research in the post-Minamata Convention era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The epidemic of gun violence in the United States (US) is exacerbated by frequent mass shootings. In 2021, there were 698 mass shootings in the US, resulting in 705 deaths and 2,830 injuries. This is a companion paper to a publication in JAMA Network Open, in which the nonfatal outcomes of victims of mass shootings have been only partially described. Methods: We gathered clinical and logistic information from 31 hospitals in the US about 403 survivors of 13 mass shootings, each event involving greater than 10 injuries, from 2012-19. Local champions in emergency medicine and trauma surgery provided clinical data from electronic health records within 24 hours of a mass shooting. We organized descriptive statistics of individual-level diagnoses recorded in medical records using International Classification of Diseases codes, according to the Barell Injury Diagnosis Matrix (BIDM), a standardized tool that classifies 12 types of injuries within 36 body regions. Results: Of the 403 patients who were evaluated at a hospital, 364 sustained physical injuries—252 by gunshot wound (GSW) and 112 by non-ballistic trauma—and 39 were uninjured. Fifty patients had 75 psychiatric diagnoses. Nearly 10% of victims came to the hospital for symptoms triggered by, but not directly related to, the shooting, or for exacerbations of underlying conditions. There were 362 gunshot wounds recorded in the Barell Matrix (1.44 per patient). The Emergency Severity Index (ESI) distribution was skewed toward higher acuity than typical for an emergency department (ED), with 15.1% ESI 1 and 17.6% ESI 2 patients. Semi-automatic firearms were used in 100% of these civilian public mass shootings, with 50 total weapons for 13 shootings (Route 91 Harvest Festival, Las Vegas. 24). Assailant motivations were reported to be associated with hate crimes in 23.1%. Conclusion: Survivors of mass shootings have substantial morbidity and characteristic injury distribution, but 37% of victims had no GSW. Law enforcement, emergency medical systems, and hospital and ED disaster planners can use this information for injury mitigation and public policy planning. The BIDM is useful to organize data regarding gun violence injuries. We call for additional research funding to prevent and mitigate interpersonal firearm injuries, and for the National Violent Death Reporting System to expand tracking of injuries, their sequelae, complications, and societal costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 represents the greatest health crisis in recent human history. To date, it is still difficult to estimate its impact on mortality. This paper investigates the excess crude mortality in 27 European countries. The differences between the values observed in 2020 and 2021 with those predicted by a joinpoint regression model were evaluated. A multi-regression analysis was implemented to assess the relationship between health variables and excess mortality. Europe experienced a marked and surprising (S-value > 52) increase in crude mortality during 2020 (Δ% = +10.0%, 95% CI: [2.5; 18.7]) and 2021 (Δ% = +12.1%, 95% CI: [4.3; 21.2]). The difference between average excesses of Eastern and Western countries was not surprising (S < 2) and had little relevance (ΔE-W = −2.4, 95% CI: [−2; 7]) during 2020 but was more pronounced (S = 15, ΔE-W = +17.2, 95% CI: [11.0; 23.5]) during 2021. Excess crude mortality increased in 2021 (Δ% = +65%, 95% CI: [12.6; 118], S = 5.9). Evidence has been found for a surprising and marked negative linear relationship between COVID-19 vaccinations and excess mortality ("2021 excess mortality = A + BX4", with "A = 58 ± 7, S = 28" and "B = −0.65 ± 0.10, S = 22, Radj2 = 0.65, 95% CI: [0.38; 0.82]). In light of the current literature, these findings provide solid evidence of the substantial role of COVID-19 in the unexpected and marked excess mortality recorded in Europe. COVID-19 vaccinations have appeared to be one of the main determinants for reducing mortality. Future research should explore these aspects in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite its high mortality rate of approximately 90 % , the Ebola virus disease (EVD) has not received enough attention in terms of in-depth research. This illness has been responsible for over 40 years of epidemics throughout Central Africa. However, during 2014–2015, the Ebola-driven epidemic in West Africa became, and remains, the deadliest to date. Thus, Ebola has been declared one of the major public health issues. This paper aims at exploring the effects of external fluctuations on the prevalence of the Ebola virus. We begin by proposing a sophisticated biological system that takes into account vaccination and quarantine strategies as well as the effect of time lags. Due to some external perturbations, we extend our model to the probabilistic formulation with white noises. The perturbed model takes the form of a system of stochastic differential equations. Based on some non-standard analytical techniques, we demonstrate two main approach properties: intensity and elimination of Ebola virus. To better understand the impact of applied strategies, we deal with the stochastic control optimization approach by using some advanced theories. All of this theoretical arsenal has been numerically confirmed by employing some real statistical data of Ebola virus. Finally, we mention that this work could be a rich basis for further investigations aimed at understanding the complexity of Ebola virus propagation at pathophysiological and mathematics levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer registration has been with us for decades surveilling societies for cancer incidence, trends, mortality and survival. Data are used for health care planning but even more so for research in cancer treatment, outcome and prevention - i.e. overall cancer control. With the 70th anniversary of the Cancer Registry of Norway, this paper examines the impact and role of the registry in the past and today for cancer registration and affiliated research in the Nordic countries, as well as scientific peer reviewed productivity. The Nordic collaboration in cancer-registry-based research benefits from previous and actual ongoing activities in Norway. The Cancer Registry of Norway is a prominent independent organization under Oslo University Hospital Trust for registration and registry-based cancer epidemiology, with a multidisciplinary broad-based high quality professional staff. The research portfolio includes regular cancer registration, linkage to external data e.g. occupation, biobanks and clinical data conducting analysis with clear national, Nordic and international relevance. Various threats to the ownership of cancer registries and the derived epidemiology in past, such as organizational changes and loss of independence were avoided in Norway, but the interpretation of data protection following the GDPR today causes delays or may even block the Nordic cancer registry research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has emerged as a global serious public health issue from December 2019. People having a weak immune system are more susceptible to coronavirus infection. It is a double challenge for people of any age with certain underlying medical conditions including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and cancer etc. Co-morbidity increases the probability of COVID-19 complication. In this paper a deterministic compartmental model is formulated to understand the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Rigorous mathematical analysis of the model shows that it exhibits backward bifurcation phenomenon when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. For the case of no re-infection it is shown that having the reproduction number less than one is necessary and sufficient for the effective control of COVID-19, that is, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, in the absence of reinfection, a unique endemic equilibrium of the model exists which is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity. Numerical simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics, show that the use of efficacious face masks publicly could lead to the elimination of COVID-19 up to a satisfactory level. The study also shows that in the presence of co-morbidity, the disease increases significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been become the dominant variant family among more than 100 countries and regions around the world. There are still limited data on how inactivated COVID-19 vaccines prevent Omicron-related symptomatic infection, transmission, hospital admission, and death3. Recently, Dawei Yang et al. published a paper in the to explore the effect of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines on Omicron from the perspective of real-world observation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that machine learning (ML) and epidemiology are on collision course over causation. The discipline of epidemiology lays great emphasis on causation, while ML research does not. Some epidemiologists have proposed imposing what amounts to a causal constraint on ML in epidemiology, requiring it either to engage in causal inference or restrict itself to mere projection. We whittle down the issues to the question of whether causal knowledge is necessary for underwriting predictions about the outcomes of public health interventions. While there is great plausibility to the idea that it is, conviction that something is impossible does not by itself motivate a constraint to forbid trying. We disambiguate the possible motivations for such a constraint into definitional, metaphysical, epistemological, and pragmatic considerations and argue that “Proceed with caution” (rather than “Stop!”) is the outcome of each. We then argue that there are positive reasons to proceed, albeit cautiously. Causal inference enforces existing classification schema prior to the testing of associational claims (causal or otherwise), but associations and classification schema are more plausibly discovered (rather than tested or justified) in a back-and-forth process of gaining reflective equilibrium. ML instantiates this kind of process, we argue, and thus offers the welcome prospect of uncovering meaningful new concepts in epidemiology and public health—provided it is not causally constrained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian Policy of Comprehensive Care for People with Rare Diseases (BPCCPRD) was established by the Ministry of Health to reduce morbidity and mortality and improve the quality of life of people with rare diseases (RD). Several laboratory tests, most using molecular genetic technologies, have been incorporated by the Brazilian Public Health System, and 18 specialised centres have so far been established at university hospitals (UH) in the capitals of the Southern, Southeastern and Northeastern regions. However, whether the available human and technological resources in these services are appropriate and sufficient to achieve the goals of care established by the BPCCPRD is unknown. Despite great advances in diagnosis, especially due to new technologies and the recent structuring of clinical assessment of RD in Brazil, epidemiological data are lacking and when available, restricted to specific disorders. This position paper summarises the performance of a nationally representative survey on epidemiology, clinical status, and diagnostic and therapeutic resources employed for individuals with genetic and non-genetic RD in Brazil. The Brazilian Rare Disease Network (BRDN) is under development, comprising 40 institutions, including 18 UH, 17 Rare Diseases Reference Services and five Newborn Screening Reference Services. A retrospective study will be initially conducted, followed by a prospective study. The data collection instrument will use a standard protocol with sociodemographic data and clinical and diagnostic aspects according to international ontology. This great collaborative network is the first initiative of a large epidemiological data collection of RD in Latin America, and the results will increase the knowledge of RD in Brazil and help health managers to improve national public policy on RD in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiology can be considered as a responsible public health science the aim of which is to control health problems. One of the most important public health problems is "war". The aim of the present paper, therefore, is threefold: firstly, to determine to what extent war has been investigated from an epidemiological point of view; secondly, what the definition and scope of "war epidemiology" would be; and thirdly, if it would be possible to introduce a new branch of epidemiology entitled "peace epidemiology". In the present study, I have tried to fulfill the aims of the study based on my experiences in war and peace epidemiology and also by reviewing the most relevant websites, documents and papers. Evidence suggests that enough epidemiological studies have not been carried out to determine the sheer public health consequences of war. "War epidemiology" can be defined as "the study of the distribution and determinants of war-related events in specified populations, and the application of this study to the control of war". "Peace epidemiology" is a new branch of epidemiology which "highlights how peace could positively shape our world". Epidemiologists need to produce more scientific evidence about the negative public health consequences of wars and also the positive public health consequences of peace. The ultimate aim of "war epidemiology" is to control war, usually by secondary and tertiary prevention activities. However, the ultimate aim of "peace epidemiology" is to reinforce peace by primary and/or primordial prevention activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Universal Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination is recommended in countries with high tuberculosis (TB) burden. Nevertheless, several countries have ceased universal BCG vaccination over the past 40 years, with scarce comparative epidemiological analyses regarding childhood TB after the policy change. We analysed data on childhood TB in countries that ceased universal BCG vaccination. Data sources included national/international databases, published papers, annual TB reports, and public health authority websites. Childhood TB notification rate increased in one of seven countries with available data. Pulmonary TB and TB lymphadenitis were the main causes of increasing childhood cases, while changes in severe forms of TB cases were minor. Maintaining high vaccine coverage for the target group was a common challenge after shifting selective vaccination. In some countries showing no increase in childhood TB after a BCG policy change, the majority of childhood TB cases were patients from abroad or those with overseas parents; these countries had changed immigration policies during the same period. Heterogeneity in childhood TB epidemiology was observed after ceasing universal BCG vaccination; several factors might obscure the influence of vaccination policy change. Lessons learned from these countries may aid in the development of better BCG vaccination strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since December 2019, there has been a global explosion of research on COVID-19. In Canada, the six National Collaborating Centres (NCCs) for Public Health form one of the central pillars supporting evidence-informed decision making by gathering, synthesizing and translating emerging findings. Funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada and located across Canada, the six NCCs promote and support the use of scientific research and other knowledges to strengthen public health practice, programs and policies. This paper offers an overview of the NCCs as an example of public health knowledge mobilization in Canada and showcases the NCCs' contribution to the COVID-19 response while reflecting on the numerous challenges encountered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Regulatory policy to protect the public and the environment from radiation is universally based on the linear, no-threshold model (LNT) of radiation effects. This model has been controversial since its inception over nine decades ago, and remains so to this day, but it has proved remarkably resistant to challenge from the scientific community. The LNT model has been repeatedly endorsed by expert advisory bodies, and regulatory agencies in turn adopt policies that reflect this advice. Unfortunately, these endorsements rest on a foundation of institutional inertia and numerous logical fallacies. These include most significantly setting the LNT as the null hypothesis, and shifting the burden of proof onto LNT skeptics. Other examples include arbitrary exclusion of alternative hypotheses, ignoring criticisms of the LNT, cherry-picking evidence, and making policy judgements without foundation. This paper presents an evaluation of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements' (NCRP) Commentary 27, which concluded that recent epidemiological studies are compatible with the continued use of the LNT model for radiation protection. While this report will likely provide political cover for regulators' continued reliance on the LNT, it is a missed opportunity to advance the scientific discussion of the effects of low dose, low dose-rate radiation exposure. Due to its Congressionally chartered mission, no organization is better positioned than the NCRP to move this debate forward, and recommendations for doing so in future reviews are provided. Highlights • The linear no-threshold (LNT) model of radiation effects has fractured the scientific community. • This paper analyzes the latest review of the LNT model, NCRP Commentary 27. • Expert reviews of the LNT model rely on institutional inertia and numerous logical fallacies. • Recommendations to advance this debate in an objective future review are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease neglected, caused by Mycobacterium leprae, considered a public health problem because may cause permanent physical disabilities and deformities, leading to severe limitations. This review presents an overview of the results of epidemiological studies on leprosy occurrence in childhood in Brazil, aiming to alert health planners and managers to the actual need to institute special control strategies. Methodology/Principal findings: Data collection consisted of an electronic search for publications in eight databases: Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS), Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), PuBMed, Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde (BVS), SciVerse Scopus (Scopus), CAPES theses database, CAPES journals database and Web of Science of papers published up to 2016. After apply selection criteria, twenty-two papers of studies conducted in four different regions of Brazil and published between 2001 and 2016 were included in the review. The leprosy detection rate ranged from 10.9 to 78.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite affecting both sexes, leprosy was more common in boys and in 10-14-year-olds. Although the authors reported a high cure proportion (82–90%), between 1.7% and 5.5% of the individuals developed a disability resulting from the disease. Conclusions/Significance: The findings of this review shows that leprosy situation in Brazilian children under 15 years is extremely adverse in that the leprosy detection rate remains high in the majority of studies. The proportion of cases involving disability is also high and reflects the difficulties and the poor effectiveness of actions aimed at controlling the disease. The authors suggest the development of studies in spatial clusters of leprosy, where beyond the routine actions established, are included news strategies of active search and campaigns and actions of educations inside the clusters of this disease. The new agenda needs to involve the precepts of ethical, humane and supportive care, in order to achieve a new level of leprosy control in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health lessons from one pandemic become the planning assumptions for the next one. Aotearoa New Zealand's 2017 pandemic plan was derived from past experience of influenza. When Covid-19 emerged as a major global health threat, it took time for the realisation to crystallise that this infection was so different from influenza that it required a completely new pandemic response strategy. In this paper we describe how early evidence about SARS-CoV-2 transmission from China led to the adoption of an elimination strategy in Aotearoa New Zealand, making it the first country to choose elimination as a specific policy response. We discuss how further evidence has shaped the selection and design of Covid-19 pandemic control measures such as border restrictions, case and contact management, hygiene practices and use of face masks, physical distancing, and vaccines. This experience demonstrates the need for a different approach to the design of the next national pandemic plan. We identify key early evidence that will be required to develop a flexible and appropriate public health response to a new pandemic threat. We present a framework for a new pandemic plan that aims to learn from the Covid-19 experience by making as few limiting assumptions as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Obesity (BMI greater than 30.0 kg/m2) is always a trending public health problem and different studies have linked it to the development of heart diseases. However, overweight (BMI between 25.0 kg/m2 and less than 30.0 kg/m2) has very few studies linking it to the development of heart diseases, coupled with the overweight/obesity paradox phenomena which still causes controversy. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between overweight and congestive heart failure/coronary heart diseases in the United States. To determine this relationship, the 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset, which surveyed 9756 individuals in the United States was utilized. The dataset was analyzed using Software for Statistics and Data Software (STATA) and Pearson's chi-squared test. The p-value using the t-test command in STATA for all these variables was <0.001, which indicated that there is a significant relationship between overweight and congestive heart failure/coronary heart disease across gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Although the development of congestive heart failure/coronary heart disease in overweight individuals was confirmed with this study, it is surprising to realize that the socioeconomic status of an individual also plays a role. Further research is necessary to determine how a lower or higher socioeconomic status causes overweight leading to heart diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of detection technology, the harm caused by norovirus has been gradually recognized. Norovirus infection is very common in China. In addition, the replication process of Nov is prone to recombination and mutation, resulting in new mutants, which changes the antigenicity of the virus and evades the immune pressure of the population. As a result, the global periodic epidemic of norovirus occurs every few years. Norovirus gastroenteritis has increasingly become an important public health problem in the world. Due to the limitations of the detection methods of Nov, currently, it is not included in the routine detection items of gastroenteritis, which greatly limits the epidemiological study of Nov. therefore, this paper discusses the clinical observation and nursing effect of sporadic norovirus gastroenteritis, so as to provide the basis for the prevention and treatment of sporadic norovirus gastroenteritis. The results showed that the detection rate of norovirus in sporadic cases was 19.66%. The expected VLPs / P particles were not obtained in the experiment, and the HbGA receptor of the outbreak virus could not be determined. However, the nursing effect of the patients with gastroenteritis was better by this method. For the prevention of sporadic norovirus gastroenteritis, we should closely monitor norovirus in marine farms, especially oyster farms and environmental water, in order to predict the emergence of new early mutants and provide early warning for regional sporadic norovirus control and prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to discuss how the public budget and the model of basic attention in public health could affect the infant mortality rates in a certain territory. The research was carried out in the Southern Coastal Territory of Bahia, in the State of Bahia, Northeast Region of Brazil. It is a quantitative and descriptive investigation, based on secondary data referring to the period from 2006 to 2015, collected between 2017 and 2018 in official Brazilian public data banks. It was verified that, although the average rate of infant mortality fell gradually from 2006 in the territory, it is still higher than the national average within the investigated period. In 2006, the average rate of the territory was 35.53% and decreased to 18.56% in 2015. However, throughout the period the average rate remained higher than the Brazilian average, which is 18%. Infant mortality rates have a strong relationship with social, economic, and environmental factors. In the case investigated, they are associated with the fragmentation and fragility of public health service networks in the municipalities of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

America faces a series of intersecting problems that relate to health inequities, failing schools, and an inadequate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) workforce, particularly in cities and among low-income Black and Latino youth. Here, we propose a solution, namely reforming secondary school education to include mandatory exposure to population thinking instruction to address these overlapping issues. Public health education has expanded in recent decades in undergraduate education, though it has yet to become an integral component of high school curricula. In this paper, we make the case that all youth should gain exposure to the skills of population thinking through public health education initiated in high school. We further provide a rationale for this approach drawn from multiple youth development frameworks and the community schools movement for honing youth critical thinking skills and problem solving relating to individual and community health, policy, and activism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address limitations of observational epidemiology studies of air pollution and health effects, including residual confounding by temporal and spatial factors, several studies have taken advantage of ‘natural experiments’, where an environmental policy or air quality intervention has resulted in reductions in ambient air pollution concentrations. Researchers have examined whether the population impacted by these air quality improvements, also experienced improvements in various health indices (e.g. reduced morbidity/mortality). In this paper, I review key accountability studies done previously and new studies done over the past several years in Beijing, Atlanta, London, Ireland, and other locations, describing study design and analysis strengths and limitations of each. As new ‘natural experiment’ opportunities arise, several lessons learned from these studies should be applied when planning a new accountability study. Comparison of health outcomes during the intervention to both before and after the intervention in the population of interest, as well as use of a control population to assess whether any temporal changes in the population of interest were also seen in populations not impacted by air quality improvements, should aid in minimizing residual confounding by these long term time trends. Use of either detailed health records for a population, or prospectively collected data on relevant mechanistic biomarkers coupled with such morbidity/mortality data may provide a more thorough assessment of if the intervention beneficially impacted the health of the community, and if so by what mechanism(s). Further, prospective measurement of a large suite of air pollutants may allow a more thorough understanding of what pollutant source(s) is/are responsible for any health benefit observed. The importance of using multiple statistical analysis methods in each paper and the difference in how the timing of the air pollution/outcome association may impact which of these design features is most important is also discussed. Based on these and other lessons learned, researchers may provide a more epidemiologically rigorous evaluation of cause-specific health impacts of an air quality intervention or action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background China may have the largest number of Budd-Chiari syndrome ( BCS) cases in the world (at least 1914 original papers were published, and at least 20 191 BCS patients were reported). Considering the discrepancy in the clinical profiles and preferred treatment selection of primary BCS between the West and China, understanding its aetiology in these two different regions is very important. Aim To review the data from large cohort studies and meta-analyses to illustrate the epidemiology of risk factors for BCS in the West and China. Methods Relevant papers were identified by major English- and Chinese-language databases, conference abstracts, and by manual search. Results Risk factors reviewed include myeloproliferative neoplasms ( MPNs) and their related gene mutations, anti-phospholipid syndrome, paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria ( PNH), hyperhomocysteinaemia and 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase ( MTHFR) C677T mutation, factor V Leiden ( FVL) and prothrombin G20210A mutations, inherited anti-thrombin, protein C and protein S deficiencies, pregnancy and puerperium, poverty, and family history. Conclusions We examined the differences in the aetiological distribution of BCS between the West and China. Several recommendations should be considered in Chinese BCS patients: (i) screening for hyperhomocysteinaemia and MTHFR mutation should be regularly performed; (ii) screening for MPNs, PNH, and anti-phospholipid syndrome should be selectively performed; (iii) inherited anti-thrombin, protein C, and protein S deficiencies should be actively explored; (iv) screening for FVL and prothrombin G20210A mutations may be unnecessary; and (v) the clinical significance of pregnancy and puerperium, poverty with bacterial infections and unsanitary environments, and family history as possible risk factors should never be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), the most common chronic complication of diabetes, has become an important public health crisis worldwide. Given that DPN is extremely difficult to treat, determining its risk factors and controlling it at an early stage is critical to preventing its serious consequences and the burden of social disease. Current studies suggest that the risk factors for diabetic peripheral neuropathy are the duration of diabetes, age, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), diabetic retinopathy (DR), smoking, and body mass Index (BMI). However, most of the aforementioned studies are cross-sectional, and the sample sizes are very limited, so the strength of causal reasoning is relatively low. The current study systematically evaluated DPN’s influencing factors in patients with type 2 diabetes using evidence-based medicine. Overall, 16 included studies (14 cross-sectional studies and 2 case-control studies including 12,116 cases) that conformed to the present criteria were included in the final analysis. The results suggested that the duration of diabetes (MD 2.5, 95% CI 1.71~3.29), age (MD 4.00, 95% CI 3.05~4.95), HbA1c (MD 0.48, 95% CI 0.33~0.64), and DR (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.74~3.16) are associated with significantly increased risks of DPN among diabetic patients, while BMI, smoking, total triglyceride (TG), and total cholesterol (TC) did not indicate any risks of increasing DPN. The findings provide a scientific basis for a further understanding of the causes of type 2 diabetes complicated with peripheral neuropathy and the improvement of preventive strategies. The next step is to conduct further high-quality prospective cohort studies to validate this paper’s findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medical registries provide highly reliable data, challenged hierarchically only by randomized controlled trials. Although registries have been used in several fields of medicine for more than a century and a half, their key role is frequently overlooked and poorly recognized. Medical registries have evolved from calculating basic epidemiological data (incidence, prevalence, mortality) to diverse applications in disease prevention, early diagnosis and screening programs, treatment response, health care planning, decision making and disease control programs. Implementing, maintaining and running a medical registry requires substantial effort. Developing the registry represents a complex task and is one of the major barriers in widespread use of registries. Medical registries have potential to evolve to a next generation by taking benefit from recent semantic web technology developments. This paper is aimed at providing a summary of the basic information available on medical registries and to highlight the progress and potential applications in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The establishment of trust between researchers and participants is critical to advance HIV and HCV prevention particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID) and other marginalized populations, yet empirical research on how to establish and maintain trust in the course of community health research is lacking. This paper documents ideas about trust between research participants and researchers amongst a sub-sample of PWID who were enrolled in a large, multi-year community health study of social networks and HIV/HCV risk that was recently conducted in rural Puerto Rico. Methods: Qualitative research was nested within a multi-year Social Network and HIV/HCV Risk study involving N = 360 PWID > 18 years of age living in four small, rural Puerto Rican communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between March 2017 and April 2017 with a subset of 40 active PWID who had been enrolled in the parent study. Interview questions invited participants to draw upon their recent experience as research participants to better understand how PWID perceive and understand participant-researcher trust within the context of HIV/HCV-related epidemiological research. Results: Fear of police, stigma and concerns regarding confidentiality and anonymity were identified as structural factors that could compromise participation in HIV/HCV-related research for PWID. While monetary compensation was an important motivation, participants also valued the opportunity to learn about their HIV/HCV status. During their participation in the study, gaining knowledge of safe injection practices was perceived as a valuable benefit. Participant narratives suggested that PWID may adopt an incremental and ongoing approach in their assessment of the trustworthiness of researchers, continuously assessing the extent to which they trust the research staff throughout the course of the research. Trust was initially generated through peer Respondent Driven Sampling recruitment. Research staff who maintained a presence in the community for the entire duration of the prospective study reinforced trust between participants and the research team. Conclusion: Although PWID face numerous structural barriers to research-related trust in HIV/HCV research, we found that using a peer-based recruitment method like RDS, and employing a research staff who are knowledgeable about the targeted population, culturally sensitive to their needs, and who maintain a long-term presence in the community may help mitigate many of these barriers. The reputation of the research is built incrementally as participants join the study. This contributes to a “street reputation” that grows as current or former participants vouch for the study. Establishing trust was identified as only the first step towards building a collaborative relationship with participants, and our findings suggest that steps to address criminalization and stigmatization also are necessary to support research trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Overall accuracy measures of medical tests are often used with unclear interpretations. Objectives: To develop methods of calculating the overall accuracy of medical tests in the patient population. Methods: Algebraic equations based on Bayes' theorem. Results: A new approach is proposed for calculating overall accuracy in the patient population. Examples and applications using published data are presented. Conclusions: The overall accuracy is the proportion of the correct test results. We introduce a clear distinction between the overall accuracy measures of medical tests that are aimed at the detection of a disease in a screening of populations for public health purposes in the general population and the overall accuracy measures of tests aimed at determining a diagnosis in individuals in a clinical setting. We show that the overall detection accuracy measure is obtained in a specific study that explores test accuracy among persons with known diagnoses and may be useful for public health screening tests. It is different from the overall diagnostic accuracy that could be calculated in the clinical setting for the evaluation of medical tests aimed at determining the individual patients' diagnoses. We show that the overall detection accuracy is constant and is not affected by the prevalence of the disease. In contrast, the overall diagnostic accuracy changes and is dependent on the prevalence. Moreover, it ranges according to the ratio between the sensitivity and specificity. Thus, when the sensitivity is greater than the specificity, the overall diagnostic accuracy increases with increasing prevalence, and vice versa, that is, when the sensitivity is lower than the specificity, the overall diagnostic accuracy decreases with increasing prevalence so that another test might be more useful for diagnostic procedures. Our paper suggests a new and more appropriate methodology for estimating the overall diagnostic accuracy of any medical test. This may be important for helping clinicians avoid errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 2011 a large outbreak of typhoid fever affected an estimated 1430 people in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak started in military camps in the city but then spread to the general population. This paper reports the results of an ecological analysis and a case-control study undertaken to examine water and other possible transmission pathways. Attack rates were determined for health areas and risk ratios were estimated with respect to spatial exposures. Approximately 15 months after the outbreak, demographic, environmental and exposure data were collected for 320 cases and 640 controls residing in the worst affected areas, using a structured interview questionnaire. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated. Complete data were available for 956 respondents. Residents of areas with water supplied via gravity on the mains network were at much greater risk of disease acquisition (risk ratio = 6.20, 95%CI 3.39–11.35) than residents of areas not supplied by this mains network. In the case control study, typhoid was found to be associated with ever using tap water from the municipal supply (OR = 4.29, 95% CI 2.20–8.38). Visible urine or faeces in the latrine was also associated with increased risk of typhoid and having chosen a water source because it is protected was negatively associated. Knowledge that washing hands can prevent typhoid fever, and stated habit of handwashing habits before cooking or after toileting was associated with increased risk of disease. However, observed associations between handwashing or plate-sharing with disease risk could very likely be due to recall bias. This outbreak of typhoid fever was strongly associated with drinking water from the municipal drinking water supply, based on the descriptive and analytic epidemiology and the finding of high levels of faecal contamination of drinking water. Future outbreaks of potentially waterborne disease need an integrated response that includes epidemiology and environmental microbiology during early stages of the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Of the 70 million persons with epilepsy (PWE) worldwide, nearly 12 million PWE are expected to reside in India; which contributes to nearly one-sixth of the global burden. This paper (first of the two part series) provides an in-depth understanding of the epidemiological aspects of epilepsy in India for developing effective public health prevention and control programs. The overall prevalence (3.0-11.9 per 1,000 population) and incidence (0.2-0.6 per 1,000 population per year) data from recent studies in India on general population are comparable to the rates of high-income countries (HICs) despite marked variations in population characteristics and study methodologies. There is a differential distribution of epilepsy among various sociodemographic and economic groups with higher rates reported for the male gender, rural population, and low socioeconomic status. A changing pattern in the age-specific occurrence of epilepsy with preponderance towards the older age group is noticed due to sociodemographic and epidemiological transition. Neuroinfections, neurocysticercosis (NCC), and neurotrauma along with birth injuries have emerged as major risk factors for secondary epilepsy. Despite its varied etiology (unknown and known), majority of the epilepsy are manageable in nature. This paper emphasizes the need for focused and targeted programs based on a life-course perspective and calls for a stronger public health approach based on equity for prevention, control, and management of epilepsy in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cervical cancer is on the declining trend in India according to the population-based registries; yet it continues to be a major public health problem for women in India. Multifactorial causation, potential for prevention, and the sheer threat it poses make cervical cancer an important disease for in-depth studies, as has been attempted by this paper. This paper attempts to review the available knowledge regarding the epidemiology and pattern of cervical cancer; types of HPV (human papilloma virus) prevalent among cervical cancer patients and among women in general, high-risk groups such as commercial sex workers, and HIV (human immunodeficiency virus)-positive women; and the role of the national program on cancer in control efforts. The peak age of incidence of cervical cancer is 55-59 years, and a considerable proportion of women report in the late stages of disease. Specific types of oncogenic HPV-16, 18 have been identified in patients with cervical cancer. Other epidemiological risk factors are early age at marriage, multiple sexual partners, multiple pregnancies, poor genital hygiene, malnutrition, use of oral contraceptives, and lack of awareness. A multipronged approach is necessary which can target areas of high prevalence identified by registries with a combination of behavior change communication exercises and routine early screening with VIA. Sensitizing the people of the area, including menfolk, is necessary to increase uptake levels. Vaccination against types 16 and 18 can also be undertaken after taking into confidence all stakeholders, including the parents of adolescent girls. Preventing and treating cervical cancer and reducing the burden are possible by targeting resources to the areas with high prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After successfully reducing the malaria burden to pre-elimination levels over the past two decades, the national malaria programme in Vietnam has recently switched from control to elimination. However, in forested areas of Central Vietnam malaria elimination is likely to be jeopardized by the high occurrence of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections as shown by previous reports. This paper presents the results of a malaria survey carried out in a remote forested area of Central Vietnam where we evaluated malaria prevalence and risk factors for infection. Methods: After a full census (four study villages = 1,810 inhabitants), the study population was screened for malaria infections by standard microscopy and, if needed, treated according to national guidelines. An additional blood sample on filter paper was also taken in a random sample of the population for later polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and more accurate estimation of the actual burden of malaria infections. The risk factor analysis for malaria infections was done using survey multivariate logistic regression as well as the classification and regression tree method (CART). Results: A total of 1,450 individuals were screened. Malaria prevalence by microscopy was 7.8% (ranging from 3.9 to 10.9% across villages) mostly Plasmodium falciparum (81.4%) or Plasmodium vivax (17.7%) mono-infections; a large majority (69.9%) was asymptomatic. By PCR, the prevalence was estimated at 22.6% (ranging from 16.4 to 42.5%) with a higher proportion of P. vivax mono-infections (43.2%). The proportion of sub-patent infections increased with increasing age and with decreasing prevalence across villages. The main risk factors were young age, village, house structure, and absence of bed net. Conclusion: This study confirmed that in Central Vietnam a substantial part of the human malaria reservoir is hidden. Additional studies are urgently needed to assess the contribution of this hidden reservoir to the maintenance of malaria transmission. Such evidence will be crucial for guiding elimination strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background It is common in public health and epidemiology that the outcome of interest is counts of events occurrence. Analysing these data using classical linear models is mostly inappropriate, even after transformation of outcome variables due to overdispersion. Zero-adjusted mixture count models such as zero-inflated and hurdle count models are applied to count data when over-dispersion and excess zeros exist. Main objective of the current paper is to apply such models to analyse risk factors associated with human helminths (S. haematobium) particularly in a case where there's a high proportion of zero counts. Methods The data were collected during a community-based randomised control trial assessing the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Malawi, and a school-based cross sectional epidemiology survey in Zambia. Count data models including traditional (Poisson and negative binomial) models, zero modified models (zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) and hurdle models (Poisson logit hurdle and negative binomial logit hurdle) were fitted and compared. Results Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the negative binomial logit hurdle (NBLH) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) showed best performance in both datasets. With regards to zero count capturing, these models performed better than other models. Conclusion This paper showed that zero modified NBLH and ZINB models are more appropriate methods for the analysis of data with excess zeros. The choice between the hurdle and zero-inflated models should be based on the aim and endpoints of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although inequalities in health and socioeconomic status have an important influence on childhood educational performance, the interactions between these multiple factors relating to variation in educational outcomes at micro-level is unknown, and how to evaluate the many possible interactions of these factors is not well established. This paper aims to examine multi-dimensional deprivation factors and their impact on childhood educational outcomes at micro-level, focusing on geographic areas having widely different disparity patterns, in which each area is characterised by six deprivation domains (Income, Health, Geographical Access to Services, Housing, Physical Environment, and Community Safety). Traditional health statistical studies tend to use one global model to describe the whole population for macro-analysis. In this paper, we combine linked educational and deprivation data across small areas (median population of 1500), then use a local modelling technique, the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system, to predict area educational outcomes at ages 7 and 11. We define two new metrics, “Micro-impact of Domain” and “Contribution of Domain”, to quantify the variations of local impacts of multidimensional factors on educational outcomes across small areas. The two metrics highlight differing priorities. Our study reveals complex multi-way interactions between the deprivation domains, which could not be provided by traditional health statistical methods based on single global model. We demonstrate that although Income has an expected central role, all domains contribute, and in some areas Health, Environment, Access to Services, Housing and Community Safety each could be the dominant factor. Thus the relative importance of health and socioeconomic factors varies considerably for different areas, depending on the levels of each of the other factors, and therefore each component of deprivation must be considered as part of a wider system. Childhood educational achievement could benefit from policies and intervention strategies that are tailored to the local geographic areas' profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has identified the impacts of legal frameworks that criminalize HIV non-disclosure among people living with HIV (e.g., elevated stigma and violence). However, far less is known about the perspectives or experiences of people–particularly, men–who are HIV-seronegative or who are unaware of their status. The objective of this paper is to describe the health and social risks that young men perceive to be associated with an HIV diagnosis in the context of Canada’s current legal framework pertaining to HIV non-disclosure. Methods: We analyzed data from 100 in-depth interviews (2013–2016) conducted with 85 young men ages 18–30 in Vancouver on the topic of the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure. Results: Our analysis revealed two dominant narratives in relation to HIV criminalization: (a) interrogation and (b) justification. An interrogation narrative problematized the moral permissibility of criminalizing HIV non-disclosure. In this narrative, Canada’s HIV non-disclosure legal framework was characterized as creating unjust barriers to HIV testing uptake, as well as impeding access to and reducing retention in care for those living with HIV. Conversely, a justification narrative featured a surprising number of references to HIV as a “death sentence”, despite effective treatments being universally available in Canada. However, most of those who presented the justification narrative asserted that the criminalization of HIV non-disclosure was morally justified in light of the perceived negative stigma-related impacts of HIV (e.g., discrimination; being ostracized from sex or romantic partners, friends, family). The justification narrative often reflected a belief that the legal framework provides both punishment and deterrence, which were perceived to supersede any barriers to care for both HIV-positive and -negative individuals. Conclusion: Public education regarding contemporary medical advances in HIV may help contest lay understandings of HIV as a “death sentence”, which is particularly relevant to destabilizing justification narratives. However, significant strengthening of HIV stigma-reduction efforts will be needed to move society away from narratives that attempt to justify Canada’s current HIV non-disclosure legal framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pancreatic cancer is the fourth-leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States. The silent nature of the disease and its poor prognosis, the need for further research, along with the need to assess the outcomes of current approaches necessitate an ongoing evaluation of the epidemiology and mortality-trends of this malignancy. Continuous monitoring of disease-patterns, on population-levels, may help scientists assess the quality of healthcare delivery, boost their understanding of diseases' characteristics and risk factors, and detect gaps whereby further research is needed. None of the previous reports shed light on pancreatic adenocarcinomas (PAC), the most common type of Pancreatic Cancer, as the primary outcome. In this study we aim to investigate PAC's incidence and mortality trends over the last four decades in the United States.Methods: We used SEER 9 database to study PAC cases during 1974-2014. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, age, race, state and stage of PAC. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated using joinpoint regression software.Results: We reviewed 67,878 PAC cases; most of these cases were in the head of pancreas. Overall PAC incidence rates increased 1.03% (95% CI, 0.86-1.21, p <.001) per year over the study period. Rates of adenocarcinoma of the head of pancreas increased 0.87% (95% CI, 0.68-1.07, p <.001), and rates of adenocarcinoma of the body and tail of pancreas increased 3.42% (95% CI, 3.06-3.79, p <.001) per year during 1973-2014. PAC incidence-based mortality increased 2.22% (95% CI, 1.93-2.51, p <.001) per year. However, during 2012-2014 there was a statistically significant decrease in PAC incidence-based mortality; APC, -24.70% (95% CI, -31.78 - -16.88, p <.001).Conclusion: PAC's incidence and mortality rates have been increasing for decades. However, the last few years have shown a promising decrease in mortality. We believe that further advances in healthcare delivery and research can lead to a further mortality decrease. Future studies can use this paper as a baseline to keep monitoring the outcomes of PAC's therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have described a reduction in the rate of improvement in American mortality. The pace of improvement is also slow by international standards. This paper attempts to identify the extent to which rising body mass index (BMI) is responsible for reductions in the rate of mortality improvement in the United States. The data for this study were obtained from subsequent cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1994; NHANES continuous, 1999-2010) and from the NHANES linked mortality files, which include follow-up into death records through December 2011. The role of BMI was estimated using Cox models comparing mortality trends in the presence and absence of adjustment for maximum lifetime BMI (Max BMI). Introducing Max BMI into a Cox model controlling for age and sex raised the annual rate of mortality decline by 0.54% (95% confidence interval 0.45-0.64%). Results were robust to the inclusion of other variables in the model, to differences in how Max BMI was measured, and to how trends were evaluated. The effect of rising Max BMI is large relative to international mortality trends and to alternative mortality futures simulated by the Social Security Administration. The increase in Max BMI over the period 1988- 2011 is estimated to have reduced life expectancy at age 40 by 0.9 years in 2011 (95% confidence interval 0.7-1.1 years) and accounted for 186,000 excess deaths that year. Rising levels of BMI have prevented the United States from enjoying the full benefits of factors working to improve mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increased prevalence of cancer, respiratory diseases, and reproductive disorders, for which multifactorial origins are strongly suspected, the impact of the environment on the population represents a substantial public health challenge. Surveillance systems have become an essential public health decision-making tool. Networks have been constructed to facilitate the development of analyses of the multifactorial aspects of the relationships between occupational contexts and health. The aim of this study is to develop and present an approach for the optimal exploitation of observational databases to describe and improve the understanding of the (occupational) environment–health relationships, taking into account key multifactorial aspects. We have developed a spectral analysis (SA) approach that takes into account both the multi-exposure and dynamic natures of occupational health problems (OHPs) and related associations. The main results of this paper are to present the construction method of the “spectrum” and “spectrosome” of OHPs (range and structured list of occupational exposures) and describe the information contained therein with an illustrative example. The approach is illustrated using the case of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from the French National Occupational Diseases Surveillance and Prevention Network database as a working example of an occupational disease. We found that the NHL spectrum includes 40 sets of occupational exposures characterized by important multi-exposures, especially solvent combinations or pesticide combinations, but also specific exposures such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde and ionizing radiation. These findings may be useful for surveillance and the assessment of occupational exposure related to health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we aim to add additional knowledge regarding the occurrence, origin and epidemiological features of the English sweating sickness. The English sweating sickness raged in five devastating epidemics with mortality rates between 30 and 50% between 1485 and 1551 throughout England, and on one occasion also affected mainland Europe, in 1529. The Picardy sweat, generally considered as the English sweating sickness' lesser deadly successor, flared up in France in 1718 and caused 196 localized outbreaks with varying severity all over France and neighboring countries up to 1861. The English sweating sickness has been the subject of numerous attempts to define its origin, but so far all efforts have failed due to lack of material, DNA or RNA, that - using modern techniques and knowledge - could shed light on its cause. Although the time frame in which the English sweating sickness occurred and the geographical spread of the outbreaks is generally known, we will demonstrate here that there was more to it than meets the eye. We found reports of cases of sweating sickness in years before, after and between the 1485, 1508, 1517, 1529 and 1551 epidemics, as well as reports of sweating sickness in Italy and Spain. Conclusion. In spite of the fact that the English sweating sickness apparently has not caused casualties for a more than a century now, we suggest that -given the right circumstances- the possibility of re-emergence might still exist. The fact that up until today we have no indication concerning the causal pathogen of the English sweating sickness is certainly not re-assuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of chronic diseases, such as immune, neurobehavioral, and metabolic disorders has increased in recent decades. According to the concept of Developmental Origin of Health and Disease (DOHaD), developmental factors associated with environmental exposures and maternal lifestyle choices may partly explain the observed increase. Register-based epidemiology is a prime tool to investigate the effects of prenatal exposures over the whole life course. Our aim is to establish a Finnish register-based birth cohort, which can be used to investigate various (prenatal) exposures and their effects during the whole life course with first analyses focusing on maternal smoking and air pollution. In this paper we (i) review previous studies to identify knowledge gaps and overlaps available for cross-validation, (ii) lay out the MATEX study plan for register linkages, and (iii) analyse the study power of the baseline MATEX cohort for selected endpoints identified from the international literature.Methods/design: The MATEX cohort is a fully register-based cohort identified from the Finnish Medical Birth Register (MBR) (1987-2015). Information from the MBR will be linked with other Finnish health registers and the population register to link the cohort with air quality data. Epidemiological analyses will be conducted for maternal smoking and air pollution and a range of health endpoints.Discussion: The MATEX cohort consists of 1.75 million mother-child pairs with a maximum follow up time of 29 years. This makes the cohort big enough to reach sufficient statistical power to investigate rare outcomes, such as birth anomalies, childhood cancers, and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). The linkage between different registers allows for an extension of the scope of the cohort and a follow up from the prenatal period to decades later in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that many structured epidemic models may be described using a straightforward product structure in this paper. Such products, derived from products of directed graphs, may represent useful refinements including geographic and demographic structure, age structure, gender, risk groups, or immunity status. Extension to multistrain dynamics, that is, pathogen heterogeneity, is also shown to be feasible in this framework. Systematic use of such products may aid in model development and exploration, can yield insight, and could form the basis of a systematic approach to numerical structural sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background While there is a growing body of research on food environments for children, there has not been a published comprehensive review to date evaluating food environments outside the home and school and their relationship with diet in children. The purpose of this paper is to review evidence on the influence of the community and consumer nutrition environments on the diet of children under the age of 18 years. Methods Our search strategy included a combination of both subject heading searching as well as natural language, free-text searching. We searched nine databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus, ProQuest Public Health, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, and GEOBASE) for papers published between 1995 and July 2013. Study designs were included if they were empirically-based, published scholarly research articles, were focused on children as the population of interest, fit within the previously mentioned date range, included at least one diet outcome, and exposures within the community nutrition environment (e.g., location and accessibility of food outlets), and consumer nutrition environment (e.g., price, promotion, and placement of food choices). Results After applying exclusion and inclusion criteria, a total of 26 articles were included in our review. The vast majority of the studies were cross-sectional in design, except for two articles reporting on longitudinal studies. The food environment exposure(s) included aspects of the community nutrition environments, except for three that focused on the consumer nutrition environment. The community nutrition environment characterization most often used Geographic Information Systems to geolocate participants' homes (and/or schools) and then one or more types of food outlets in relation to these. The children included were all of school age. Twenty-two out of 26 studies showed at least one positive association between the food environment exposure and diet outcome. Four studies reported only null associations. Conclusions This review found moderate evidence of the relationship between the community and consumer nutrition environments and dietary intake in children up to 18 years of age. There is wide variation in measures used to characterize both the community and consumer nutrition environments and diet, and future research should work to decrease this heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]