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Correctional education is a prevalent form of rehabilitation programming for prisoners in the United States. There is limited evidence, however, about the labor market returns to credentials received while incarcerated. Using incarceration, educational, and labor market data in Washington State, we study the labor market returns to GEDs and short-term vocational certificates earned in prison. We identify the returns to credentials by a difference-indifferences design that compares changes in earnings and employment for incarcerated persons who earn a credential to those who enroll in a program but fail to complete a GED or certificate. We estimate that GEDs increase post-incarceration earnings by about $450 per quarter and that vocational certificates increase earnings by about $250 per quarter. Degree completers have higher hourly wages, are more likely to be employed, and work more hours following release. For vocational programs, earnings increases are driven by certificates in construction and manufacturing. [The research presented presented in this report uses confidential data from the Education Research and Data Center (ERDC) located within the Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM).]

The paper presents a first global investigation of the longer-term inequality implications of COVID-19 by examining the effect of school closures on the ability of children from different countries and backgrounds to engage in continued learning throughout the pandemic, and their implications for intergenerational mobility in education. The analysis builds on the data from the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility, country-specific results of the learning loss simulation model using weekly school closure information from February 2020 to February 2022, and high-frequency phone survey data collected by the World Bank during the pandemic to assess the incidence and quality of continued learning during periods of school closures across children from different backgrounds. Based on this information, the paper simulates counterfactual levels of educational attainment and corresponding absolute and relative intergenerational educational mobility measures with and without COVID-19 impacts, to arrive at estimates of COVID-19 impacts. The simulations suggest that the extensive school closures and associated learning losses are likely to have a significant impact on both absolute and relative intergenerational educational mobility in the absence of remedial measures. In upper-middle-income countries, the share of children with more years of education than their parents (absolute mobility) could decline by 8 percentage points, with the largest impacts observed in the Latin America region. Furthermore, unequal access to continued learning during school closures across children from households of different socioeconomic backgrounds (proxied by parental education levels) leads to a significant decline in relative educational mobility. [This report was prepared by the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice & Education Global Practice.]

Experiential learning is critical to a smooth transition from higher education to the workforce. Work-based college courses, such as internships and practicums, may be useful in facilitating this transition. This paper applies an innovative text mining technique to identify and analyze work-based courses from transcript data. The paper examines patterns and post-degree labor market outcomes of taking work-based courses at two-year and four-year colleges in a large public college system. Findings show that approximately 15% of enrollees and 30% of graduates took a work-based course in the six years after college entry. Students typically earned credits from work-based courses, and they typically took the courses in later years of their programs. Moreover, work-based coursetaking varied largely across fields of study as well as colleges. While there was no significant racial disparity, female students, students who were younger at enrollment, and U.S.-born students were more likely to take the courses than their counterparts. Results show a positive association between work-based coursetaking in college and the probability of being employed after degree completion among both two-year and four-year degree completers, a positive association with post-degree earnings among four-year completers, and a negative association with post-degree earnings among two-year completers.

While the Pell Grant covers a substantial proportion of college tuition for low-income students, it has covered only two full-time semesters per year and has not included any support for summer courses through most of its history. As research has shown that continuous enrollment throughout the year increases college persistence and completion, the summer Pell (SP) program was added during the summer of 2009 and allowed eligible low-income students to receive an additional grant for summer tuition and eligible costs. The SP was eliminated in 2011 and then restored in 2017. Using administrative data on community college students in New York City, our difference-indifferences analysis results from both periods show that SP-eligible students had a higher retention rate in the fall of the second year, had higher associate and bachelor's degree attainment rates, and had higher earnings gains up to nine years from college entry compared to SP-ineligible students. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the SP benefits were driven by Black students and older students.

We estimate the education and earnings returns to enrolling in technical two-year degree programs at community colleges in Missouri. A unique feature of the Missouri context is the presence of a highly-regarded, nationally-ranked technical college: State Technical College of Missouri (State Tech). Compared to enrolling in a non-technical community college program, we find that enrolling in a technical program at State Tech greatly increases students' likelihoods of graduation and earnings. In contrast, there is no evidence that technical education programs at other Missouri community colleges increase graduation rates, and our estimates of the earnings impacts of these other programs are much smaller than for State Tech. Our findings exemplify the importance of institutional differences in driving the efficacy of technical education and suggest great potential for high-quality programs to improve student outcomes.

Prior work on teacher candidates in Washington State has shown that about two thirds of individuals who trained to become teachers between 2005 and 2015 and received a teaching credential did not enter the state's public teaching workforce immediately after graduation, while about one third never entered a public teaching job in the state at all. In this analysis, we link data on these teacher candidates to unemployment insurance data in the state to provide a descriptive portrait of the future earnings and wages of these individuals inside and outside of public schools. Candidates who initially became public school teachers earned considerably more, on average, than candidates who were initially employed either in other education positions or in other sectors of the state's workforce. These differences persisted at least 10 years into the average career and across transitions into and out of teaching. There is therefore little evidence that teacher candidates who did not become teachers were lured into other professions by higher compensation. Instead, the patterns are consistent with demand-side constraints on teacher hiring during this time period that resulted in individuals who wanted to become teachers taking positions that offered lower wages but could lead to future teaching positions.

We use data on over 14,000 teacher candidates in Washington state, merged with employment data from the state's public schools and Unemployment Insurance system, to investigate the career paths and earnings of teacher candidates in the state. Around 75% of candidates are employed in some education position in each of the 5 years after student teaching, but we find considerable movement from education positions outside of public schools into public school teaching positions in the first few years after candidates complete student teaching. Candidates with STEM endorsements and candidates who graduated after the Great Recession are disproportionately likely to be employed in public K-12 teaching positions compared with other education positions. Finally, candidates employed in K-12 public schools earn considerably more on average than candidates employed outside of public schools, but due to the considerable compression of teacher salaries, many candidates who do not enter teaching--particularly candidates with STEM endorsements--earn more than they would have in K-12 public schools.

Which occupations are best for wellbeing? There is a large literature on earnings differentials, but less attention has been paid to occupational differences in non-pecuniary rewards. However, information on both types of rewards is needed to understand the dispersion of wellbeing across occupations. We analyse subjective wellbeing in a large representative sample of UK workers to construct a measure of "full earnings", the sum of earnings and the value of non-pecuniary rewards, in 90 different occupations. We first find that the dispersion of earnings underestimates the extent of inequality in the labour market: the dispersion of full earnings is one-third larger than the dispersion of earnings. Equally, the gender and ethnic gaps in the labour market are larger than data on earnings alone would suggest, and the true returns to completed secondary education (though not to a degree) are underestimated by earnings differences on their own. Finally, we show that our main results are similar, and stronger, for a representative sample of US workers. [Funding for this report was provided by an Écoles Universitaires de Recherche, EUR (University Research Schools, EUR) grant.]

A primary focus among colleges implementing student success reforms has been to increase overall rates of completing any credential and to reduce racial and socioeconomic equity gaps in such completion rates. The focus on general completion may overlook inequities in the type of program students complete, which is particularly significant given the wide variety of credentials offered at community colleges--from short-term certificates to transfer-oriented associate degrees that may lead to bachelor's and graduate degree programs--and the resulting variation in labor market returns among completers. Our study examines racial/ethnic stratification among community college students as they enter and progress through different programs leading to higher- and lower-paying jobs. Specifically, we develop a discrete-time survival analysis using longitudinal enrollment and transcript data on first-time-in-college, credential-seeking community college students from a state with more than 20 community colleges. We track student enrollment, completion, and transfer for up to nine years and examine when equity gaps in completion emerge. We also measure the student achievement of academic milestones (such as levels of credit accrual) along educational pathways that are associated with higher rates of credential completion and transfer over the long term. Results suggest that a significant gap in the likelihood of bachelor's degree completion between Black and White students emerges more episodically, while the gap between Hispanic and White students develops earlier and remains more consistent over time. Our results also suggest that, while all students generally benefit from the attainment of academic milestones such as gaining credit momentum or completing pre-transfer associate degrees, doing so disproportionately benefits Black and Hispanic students.

In February 2020, the Congressional Budget Office released a report on the budgetary effects of student loans repaid through income-driven plans. This paper provides additional information on the analysis the agency conducted on the characteristics of borrowers in those plans and the methods the agency used to project borrowers' earnings, repayment, and resulting forgiveness. The results show that income-driven repayment plans are heavily used by borrowers with large balances and low earnings. The typical borrower in income-driven repayment is negatively amortizing, and substantial forgiveness is projected for low-income borrowers in such plans. Overall, increased take-up of income-driven repayment and the negative amortization in those plans explain much of the decline in student loan repayment rates between 2008 and 2017. [This technical paper complements the report "Income Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Budgetary Costs and Policy Options" (ED607182).]

This article looks at the labour market outcomes of 2015 postsecondary graduates three years after graduation. Specifically, it examines their employment status, job permanency, relatedness of their job or business to their 2015 educational program, the degree to which graduates feel qualified for their job, their employment income and their job satisfaction. This article answers the question: How are graduates of 2015 faring in terms of their integration into the labour market?

Although many programs remotely disseminate information to students about the college application process, there is little evidence as to how students experience these programs. This paper examines a large-scale remote counseling program in which college counselors initiated interactions with 15,000 high school seniors via text message to support them through the college application process. Given the passive nature of text messaging, not all of the counselors' prompts elicited similar responses from students. I use text-as-data methods (combining qualitative coding and supervised machine learning) to measure which interactions lead to productive engagement between counselors and students, and which do not. I show that interactions about financial aid offers and financial aid applications are much more likely to generate productive engagement than interactions about college lists. This finding may help to explain why recent remote counseling interventions that have sought to influence students' college lists have been ineffective.

This report asserts that every child--regardless of race, income, or opportunity--should have consistent access to high-quality learning experiences from birth and provides a roadmap toward change at scale, including the development of residency programs and improved compensation for the infant/toddler workforce.

Traditionally, four-year bachelor's degree programs have been available only at universities. More recently, they have been offered at some community colleges--particularly in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Using linked administrative postsecondary graduate and personal income tax data, this study finds that college bachelor's degree (CBD) holders earn about 12% more per year, on average, than university bachelor's degree (UBD) holders two years after graduation. Almost all of this gap can be explained by the different field of study choices made by the two groups of students. Compared with their university counterparts, CBD holders were more likely to take programs in business, management and public administration or health and related fields (fields generally associated with higher-than-average earnings), and less likely to take education, humanities or social and behavioural sciences and non-professional law programs (fields generally associated with lower-than-average earnings). The remainder of the earnings gap could be explained by the fact that CBD holders were more than two years older than UBD holders, on average. The study also showed that UBD holders registered faster earnings growth between two and five years after graduation and were more likely to enroll in graduate studies than their counterparts from colleges. Moreover, CBD programs were generally concentrated in colleges that were situated near a university and associated with above-average earnings (compared with other colleges) among their diploma holders.

This paper looks at how countries have mobilized additional resources for education and assesses their impact on access and learning outcomes, using the World Bank's new Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling measure. The paper shows that global spending on education has risen significantly over the past two decades, although spending as a share of gross domestic product has remained relatively unchanged, at about 4.5 percent. However, global trends mask large differences across regions and country income groups. For example, low-income countries recorded the largest increases in terms of the share of GDP spent on education, but the absolute amount they devoted to education remained low compared to other countries. Economic growth has been the main driver of increases in public education spending. Yet, countries that achieved the largest and most rapid spending increases did this through a combination of increases in overall government revenues, a greater prioritization of education in the government budget as well as healthy economic growth. Increases in public education spending did not generally result in major improvements in average education outcomes. Using the available data, the paper shows that a doubling of government spending per child led to an increase in learning-adjusted years of schooling of only half a year. Preliminary findings also show that countries with lower efficiency and spending are expected to get the most from increases in spending in improved education outcomes. The paper concludes by outlining an approach that allows countries to assess their potential for increasing education funding and the expected effects on their education outcomes, based on benchmarks drawing from the data of comparable countries. It also underscores the urgent need to improve data on public education spending and education outcomes, to extend this analysis to cover a wider set of countries and increase the robustness of country-level benchmarks. [This paper is a product of the Education Global Practice.]

Over the last two decades, Mexico has experienced macroeconomic stability, an open trade regime, and substantial progress in education. Yet average workers' earnings have stagnated, and earnings of those with higher schooling have fallen, compressing the earnings distribution and lowering the returns to education. This paper argues that distortions that misallocate resources toward less-productive firms explain these phenomena, because these firms are less intensive in well-educated workers compared with more-productive ones. It shows that while the relative supply of workers with more years of schooling has increased, misallocation of resources toward less productive firms has persisted. These two trends have generated a widening mismatch between the supply of, and the demand for, educated workers. The paper breaks down worker earnings into observable and unobservable firm and individual worker characteristics, and computes a counterfactual earnings distribution in the absence of misallocation. The main finding is that in the absence of misallocation average earnings would be higher, and that earnings differentials across schooling levels would widen, raising the returns to education. A no-misallocation path is constructed for the wage premium. Depending on parameter values, this path is found to be rising or constant, in contrast to the observed downward path. The paper concludes arguing that the persistence of misallocation impedes Mexico from taking full advantage of its investments in the education of its workforce. [This paper is a product of the Strategy and Operations Team, Development Economics Vice Presidency.]

This paper examines inequalities in the match between student quality and university quality using linked administrative data from schools, universities and tax authorities. We analyse two measures of match at the university-subject (course) level, based on student academic attainment, and graduate earnings. We find that students from lower socio-economic groups systematically undermatch for both measures across the distribution of attainment, with particularly stark socio-economic gaps for the most undermatched. While there are negligible gender gaps in academic match, high-attaining women systematically undermatch in terms of expected earnings, largely driven by subject choice.

Resource exposure is believed to be a key mechanism linking patterns of racial segregation and student outcomes during the Brown v. Board of Education era. Decades later, literature suggests that past progress on school desegregation may have stalled, raising concerns about resource equity and associated student outcomes. Are recent trends in segregation associated with racial disparities in school resources? Drawing on national data from the School Funding Fairness Data System and the Common Core of Data, this study examines the partial association between contemporary patterns of segregation between districts within a state and racial disparities in school district revenue over time. We find that increases in racial segregation, net of racial socioeconomic segregation and other racial differences between districts, are associated with racial disparities in revenue. These findings suggest that purportedly race neutral funding formulas and policies may not be completely race neutral and could be reproducing social inequality.

Sixty-seven school finance reforms (SFRs) in 26 states have taken place since 1990; however, there is little empirical evidence on the heterogeneity of SFR effects. We provide a comprehensive description of how individual reforms affected resource allocation to low- and high-income districts within states, including both financial and non-financial outcomes. After summarizing the heterogeneity of individual SFR impacts, we then examine its correlates, identifying both policy and legislative/political factors. Taken together, this research aims to provide a rich description of variation in states' responses to SFRs, as well as explanation of this heterogeneity as it relates to contextual factors.

Despite massive cuts in state funding over the past thirty years, the University of California has managed to keep enrollment on pace with growth in population. With California's population projected to grow 22.5 percent (from 40 to 49 million by 2040), that will no longer be the case, unless UC is able to find a new funding model. Informed by the historical analysis in the report "Approaching a Tipping Point: A History and Prospectus of Funding for the University of California", this essay revisits the options for funding UC from that report, including: reinvestment by California lawmakers and a proposed general bond measure for capital construction; increasing research funding to help subsidize teaching and public service programs; revising the indirect-cost agreement with the State of California; raising undergraduate tuition and fees for upper income students and establishing tuition pricing model tiered by student family income; explore differential fees by major; and reducing the percentage of UC undergraduate tuition income that is "returned-to-aid" in favor of increased fundraising for financial aid. All relate to two central questions: a) can UC afford to grow in its enrollment and academic programs with the state's population and needs? and b) how to identify new sources of revenue and pursue management efficiencies to reduce operating and capital costs? Without a substantial boost in income from the state or other sources, UC may be approaching a crossroads, where it continues to grow in enrollment without adequate funding, or where it instead chooses to halt or limit growth to focus on maintaining quality and productivity, but with serious consequences for California. Any significant state reinvestment will depend on the new California governor. Governors in the past have been key players in creating and building California's pioneering higher education system. A new governor should have ambitions for higher education that match those of Californians.

Do tuition vouchers and cash subsidies promote educational or labor force outcomes for "non-traditional" students? I use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impacts of a state aid program with an unobserved eligibility cutoff. Eligibility has no impact on degree completion for students with a preference for community colleges or four-year colleges but increases bachelor's degrees for students interested in for-profit colleges by four percentage points. I find no impact on employment or earnings for all applicants. This research highlights challenges in promoting human capital investment for adults.

What are the benefits and costs of attending a selective public research university instead of a less-selective university or college? This study examines the 2001-2011 Eligibility in the Local Context (ELC) program, which guaranteed University of California admission to students in the top four percent of California high school classes. Employing a regression discontinuity design, I estimate that ELC pulled 8 percent of marginally-admitted students into four "Absorbing" UC campuses from less-competitive public institutions in California. Those ELC compliers had lower SAT scores and family incomes than their eventual peers; almost half were under-represented minorities (URM), and 65 percent came from the state's bottom SAT quartile of high schools. Nevertheless, marginally eligible students became more than 20 percentage points more likely to earn a university degree within 5 years, though URM and less-prepared students became less likely to earn STEM degrees. Students' net expected earnings conditional on university completion, major, and gender substantially increased across subgroups, and linked state employment records suggest an increase in URM students' average early-career earnings.

By applying a regression discontinuity design to national data of students at four-year colleges, this study identifies the substitution effects of exogenously received increases of grant aid on hours of paid labor, earnings, and borrowing while in college. Results confirm students substitute grant aid for both paid labor and borrowing. An average increase of $1,100 in grant aid reduces weekly job hours by 1.5-2 hours per week for women, corresponding to a decline in annual earnings of $850, and reduces borrowing by an average of $300-$400 dollars among all students. We find limited evidence of grant aid's impact on academic outcomes.

Stackable credentials--sequential postsecondary awards that allow individuals to progress on a career path--have been suggested as a way to enhance the labor market prospects of middle-skill workers. Yet, thus far, little evidence has been provided on the economic value of these credentials. Here, we report a series of estimates on the association between stackable credentials and earnings. We use national, survey, and college-system-level datasets. A significant body of evidence indicates that the labor market returns to certificates--along with those to college degrees--are positive. But our estimates of stackable credentials show only weakly positive and inconsistent gains from these award combinations. Generally, these estimates are indistinguishable from the returns to only one postsecondary credential. There is no clear evidence of how earnings vary across types of stack--progressive, supplemental, or independent--or student characteristics. However, estimated earnings gains from stackable credentials may be imprecise. Few college students stack awards, the motives for stacking are unknown, and notably, the number of stacked awards depends on whether general vocational awards are included. Future research should examine why students stack awards and how they can choose combinations of awards that maximize their earnings gains from stacking.

Recently, studies have adopted fixed effects modeling to identify the returns to college. This method has the advantage over ordinary least squares estimates in that unobservable, individual-level characteristics that may bias the estimated returns are differenced out. But the method requires extensive longitudinal data and involves complex specifications, raising the possibility that results are sensitive either to sample restrictions or to alternative specifications. Also, the extra requirements might not be justified if results from fixed effects models are broadly similar to those from conventional ordinary least squares models. In this paper we review results from fixed effects models of the earnings gains from completing an associate degree relative to non-completion for community college students. We examine both sampling restrictions and specification issues. We find results to be sensitive to assumptions about missing earnings data and to how time trend specifications are modeled. However, we find no substantively meaningful differences between estimates using fixed effects models and ordinary least squares methods. A main benefit of fixed effects models--controlling for unobservable student characteristics--should be weighed against the difficulty in interpreting coefficients and more intensive data requirements. On the other hand, a distinct advantage of fixed effects models is that they allow for analysis of earning profiles over the period from before to after college. Given the large fluctuations in earnings over this period, this advantage may be significant in yielding evidence on the full returns to college. The following two tables are appended: (1) Robustness Checks on Returns to Associate Degrees; and (2) Percentage Decline in Earnings From Two Quarters Prior to College Entry to Quarter of College Entry (Kentucky, Ohio).

This paper reviews recent evidence on the labor market returns to credit accumulation, certificates, and associate degrees from community colleges. Evidence is collated from estimates of earnings gaps across college students using large-scale, statewide administrative datasets from eight states. Six of these states were partners of the Center for Analysis of Postsecondary Education and Employment (CAPSEE), a research center funded by the Institute of Education Sciences of the U.S. Department of Education. CAPSEE researchers conducted extensive analyses of education and earnings in these states. Findings from these studies affirm a "CAPSEE consensus" with three main results and two key features. For associate degrees, this review affirms that completing an associate degree yields strongly positive, persistent, and consistent earnings gains: studies show that completing an associate degree yields on average approximately $4,640-$7,160 per annum in extra earnings compared to entering college but not completing an award. For certificates, the evidence shows positive but modest returns and that these returns may fade out within a few years post-college. For non-completers, there is evidence that earning more credits is associated with higher earnings. Generally, the results establish two main features. First, increments of college lead to higher earnings, but with returns that are heterogeneous by field of study. Second, the evidence is strongly suggestive that returns to college are robust to macroeconomic trends. Additional Figures and Tables are appended. [For the related Research Brief, "Does It Pay to Complete Community College--and How Much? Research Brief," see ED574807.]

The increasing availability of massive administrative datasets linking postsecondary enrollees with post-college earnings records has stimulated a wealth of new research on the returns to college, and has accelerated state and federal efforts to hold institutions accountable for students' labor market outcomes. Many of these new research and policy efforts rely on state databases limited to postsecondary enrollees who work in the same state post-college, with limited information regarding family background and pre-college ability. In this paper, we use recent waves of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) to provide new, nationally representative, non-experimental estimates of the returns to degrees, as well as to assess the possible limitations of single-state, administrative-data-based estimates. To do this we evaluate how the national estimates change, depending upon the baseline comparison group, adjustments for pre-college achievement and family background, and alternative ways of addressing interstate mobility. We conclude with a discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of survey versus administrative data for estimating returns to college, as well as implications for research and policy efforts based upon single-state administrative databases. The appendices presented here include: (1) Definitions and Additional Notes for Key Variables; (2) Additional Details of Data Cleaning; (3) Comparing Self-Reported and Administrative College Enrollment and Attainment Data; (4) Results of Crosschecking Self-Reported Survey Data and Postsecondary Transcripts Data for the NLSY97; and (5) Selected Studies on the Labor Market Returns to Postsecondary Education. [For the full report: "Estimating Returns to College Attainment: Comparing Survey and State Administrative Data Based Estimates," see ED573076.]

The increasing availability of massive administrative datasets linking postsecondary enrollees with post-college earnings records has stimulated a wealth of new research on the returns to college, and has accelerated state and federal efforts to hold institutions accountable for students' labor market outcomes. Many of these new research and policy efforts rely on state databases limited to postsecondary enrollees who work in the same state post-college, with limited information regarding family background and pre-college ability. In this paper, we use recent waves of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) to provide new, nationally representative, non-experimental estimates of the returns to degrees, as well as to assess the possible limitations of single-state, administrative-data-based estimates. To do this we evaluate how the national estimates change, depending upon the baseline comparison group, adjustments for pre-college achievement and family background, and alternative ways of addressing interstate mobility. We conclude with a discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of survey versus administrative data for estimating returns to college, as well as implications for research and policy efforts based upon single-state administrative databases. [For "Estimating Returns to College Attainment: Comparing Survey and State Administrative Data Based Estimates: Appendices A, B, C, D, and E," see ED573077.]

While destination-country education provides many potential advantages for immigrants, empirical studies in Australia, Canada and the United States have produced mixed results on the labour outcomes of immigrants who are former international students. This study uses large national longitudinal datasets to examine cross-cohort trends and within-cohort changes in earnings among three groups of young university graduates: immigrants who are former international students in Canada (Canadian-educated immigrants), foreign-educated immigrants who had a university degree before immigrating to Canada and the Canadian-born population. The results show that Canadian-educated immigrants on average had much lower earnings than the Canadian-born population but higher earnings than foreign-educated immigrants both in the short term and in the long term. However, Canadian-educated immigrants are a highly heterogeneous group, and the key factor differentiating their post-immigration earnings from the earnings of the Canadian-born population and foreign-educated immigrants is whether they held a well-paid job in Canada before becoming permanent residents.

Understanding the return on investment (ROI) in VET provides governments with information on the performance of the system and justification for public expenditure. It can help enterprises and individuals to measure productivity improvement in firms or to determine increases in the employability of individuals following training investment. However, the measurement of ROI is not straightforward. This report introduces a conceptual framework for defining what is involved in the ROI calculation and provides a guide to what type of information and data are required to calculate the returns to training for government, employers and individuals.

In this study, I draw on longitudinal data for 1.1 million students in California to estimate the effects of community college credentials on students' earnings, as compared with students who are not awarded a credential. In contrast to much of the recent work on this subject, which assumed that the effects of credentials on students' earnings are constant over time, I estimate the effects of credentials on the rate of change in students' earnings and allow these effects to vary over time. I find significant earnings gains for all levels of credentials, including low-credit awards requiring fewer than six credits. Returns to associate degrees are the most durable over time, while returns to short- and long-term certificates and low-credit awards are strong initially but begin to flatten or decline by seven years after the award. I find substantial variability in returns by students' race/ethnicity and gender. Black men and Black women experience especially strong returns to associate degrees and long-term certificates, relative to other students of the same gender but different race/ethnicity, and men of all racial/ethnic groups experience much stronger returns to short-term certificates than do women. I also note wide variation by field of study in returns to credentials. The most consistent returns across levels of credentials are found in the biological sciences, engineering and industrial technologies, health, law, and public and protective services. Finally, I find compelling evidence of the need to distinguish returns after a credential is awarded from returns after a student has finished (or otherwise left) postsecondary education, as argued in recent work. Appendix A presents the author's approach to reconciling units of time. Appendix B lists the distribution of subfields of study for all credentials awarded in the CCC system from Fall 2002 through Summer 2013, by level and field of study.

Despite rich evidence on the benefit of summer enrollment at the K-12 level, the college completion literature has so far focused on college readiness, remediation, and financial aid, and has largely overlooked the potential benefits of taking summer courses among college students. Academic momentum theory suggests that summer enrollment may increase credit accumulation and retention and thus increase the rate of college completion. Using proximity to the closest four-year college as an instrumental variable (IV), I analyze public higher education data from an anonymous state to examine how enrolling in summer credits can impact college outcomes and the mechanisms by which it may do so. I find that summer enrollees in the sample had higher bachelor's degree completion rates than summer non-enrollees. Summer enrollees returned to college at a higher rate and completed more credits in the following fall without compromising their grade point averages. Students with lower first-term grade point averages benefitted more from summer enrollment. When summer enrollees reached the labor market, they had higher employment rates six years after initial enrollment. Conditional on employment, earnings were equivalent among summer enrollees and non-enrollees. These findings indicate that summer enrollment benefits students through retention, which leads to higher rates of completion and employment. They suggest that colleges may want to seek opportunities for increasing summer enrollment, and they have implications for the current method of Pell Grant allocation, which privileges the fall and spring terms over the summer term.

For schools and teachers to help students develop knowledge and skills, students need to show up to class. Yet absenteeism is high, especially in high schools. This study uses a rich dataset tracking class attendance by day for over 50,000 middle and high school students from an urban district in Academic Years 2007-'08 through 2012-'13. Our results extend and modify the extant findings on absenteeism that have been based almost exclusively on data on full-day absenteeism, missing class-by-class absences. Notably, part-day absenteeism is responsible for as much class time missed as full-day absenteeism, raising chronic absenteeism from 9 to 24 percent of total students. Incorporating part-day absences sharply increases the chronic absenteeism gap between underrepresented minority students and their peers. Both full- and part-day absenteeism show a discrete jump at the point of transition from middle school to high school, but full-day absenteeism then declines while part-day absenteeism remains high in grades 10 and 11 and increases again in grade 12. While 55 percent of full-day absences are unexcused, 92 percent of part-day absences are unexcused. Absenteeism from individual classes varies considerably by time of day, but less by class subject matter.

This paper is the third in Pioneer Institute's "UMass at a Crossroads" series. This report takes a closer look at the university's growing dependency on increases in tuition and fees and expansion of out-of-state and international student enrollment to support continued expansion of the university. The first report examined whether UMass' continuing strategy of enrollment expansion makes sense given forecasts by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education of an 11.4 percent decline in Massachusetts high school graduates over the next twelve years. This study examines more closely the university's strategy of increasing out-of-state and international enrollment as a means of increasing revenue through higher tuition rates paid by this group of students. As this paper explains, UMass-Amherst made offers of admission to more out-of-state and international applicants to its 2015-2016 freshman class than it did to Massachusetts applicants for the first time in university history. Growing out-of-state enrollment is not limited to undergraduate programs at UMass. Overall, in-state students are in the minority in UMass graduate programs, representing 30 percent of the total master's degree student population. This study also examines state funding as measured by state support per full-time equivalent student (FTE), showing that Massachusetts' higher education institutions (including UMass, the state colleges and community colleges) receive the second highest level of state financial support of New England higher education systems by this metric, and also receive more than the national average. Pioneer Institute questions whether UMass' current strategy of increasing out-of-state and international enrollment is consistent with its primary mission of serving in-state students. Furthermore, this report raises the question of whether it makes sense to provide UMass with additional state funding for capital expansion if the intent of the expansion is in large part intended to attract and educate a rising percentage of out-of-state students. The recommendations of this report call for the Governor, state education leaders, the state legislature, and university leaders to consider whether UMass' current strategy of expanding the university's facilities and enrollment capacity in order to serve a growing percentage of out-of-state students serves the financial and educational interest of Massachusetts residents. [For "UMass at a Crossroads Part 1: Is the UMass Enrollment Expansion Plan Sustainable? White Paper No. 145," see ED598651. For "UMass at a Crossroads Part 2: Is UMass' Expansion Fiscally Sustainable? White Paper No. 146," see ED598659.]

While research has consistently found strong positive earnings returns to the bachelor's degree, recent evidence also highlights heterogeneity in post-college outcomes. Combined with increases in the proportions of students borrowing to enroll, heterogeneity in college outcomes introduces the risk that some students with college degrees may experience financial hardship after graduation. Using nationally representative data on baccalaureate recipients in 1993 and 2008, this paper jointly examines labor market and debt outcomes four years after students graduate, with a focus on exploring heterogeneity by institution type and major field of study, as well as trends over time. Results confirm that the typical graduate fares well after college, both in terms of earnings and debt management. Borrowing rates and debt loads have increased substantially over time, but these substantially higher levels of debt are nonetheless manageable for the vast majority of graduates. Within this context of positive outcomes, stratification by institution type, for both earnings and debt outcomes, appears to be increasing. Similarly, while the top-earning majors have remained quite stable over time, the magnitude of the advantage of engineering, math/computer science, and business graduates has grown notably. Examining debt alongside earnings only reinforces the patterns by major: higher earning fields also have lower debt-to-earnings ratios. Overall, these patterns offer reassurance regarding the typical returns to bachelors' degrees, even for those graduating into the Great Recession, and even in light of growing debt loads. But the results also provide evidence that students' choices about where to attend and what to study have only become more consequential over time. The following tables are appended: (1) Employment, Enrollment, and Debt Outcomes by Gender; (2) Employment, Enrollment, and Debt Outcomes by Self-Reported Race/Ethnicity; and (3) Employment, Enrollment, and Debt Outcomes by Highest Parental Education.

Like other states, Michigan has implemented a number of policies to change governance and administrative arrangements in local school districts deem to be in financial emergency. This paper examines two questions: (1) Which districts get into financial trouble and why?; and (2) Among fiscally distressed districts, are there significant differences in the characteristics of districts in which the state does and does not intervene? We analyze factors influencing district fund balances utilizing fixed effect models on a statewide panel dataset of Michigan school districts from 1995 to 2012. We evaluate the impact of state school finance and choice policies, over which local districts have limited control, and local district resource allocation decisions (e.g., average class size, teacher salaries, and spending shares devoted to administration, employee health insurance, and contracted services). Our results indicate that 80% of the explained variation in district fiscal stress is due to changes in districts' state funding, to enrollment changes including those associated with school choice policies, and to the enrollment of high-cost, special education students. We also find that the districts in which the state has intervened have significantly higher shares of African-American and low-income students than other financially troubled Michigan districts, and they are in worse financial shape by some measures.

This paper examines the returns to math courses relative to those in courses in other subjects for students who started their postsecondary education at community college. The limited available evidence presumes that college-level math is valuable in the labor market relative to other coursework. Using data on college transcript and earnings from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, I estimate the relative effects of college-level math on attainment and earnings in early adulthood. I find clear attainment effects: college-level math is more strongly associated with receiving a college award than is college-level coursework in other disciplines. However, when controlling for attainment, there is little evidence that math courses are associated with increased earnings. The overall effect of math coursework on earnings is therefore modestly positive or close to zero. I also find that high school math and college-level math are positively correlated: failure to control for college-level math leads to an upward bias in estimating the effects of high school math on earnings. Finally, it is worth noting that, given high student transfer rates, it is important to have transcript information for all colleges attended by a given student when conducting this kind of analysis. The amount of college-level math coursework completed by community college students is almost doubled in the current study when accounting for math courses at all colleges attended by each student. An appendix contains two supplemental tables.

It has been well documented that the children of immigrants in Canada outperform their peers with Canadian-born parents in educational attainment, and that the two groups have similar labour market outcomes. However, large variations by ethnicity or source country exist among the children of immigrants. This study examines the extent to which admission class (e.g., skilled workers, business immigrants, live-in caregivers, the family class and refugees) also matters in the socioeconomic outcomes of childhood immigrants who arrived in Canada before the age of 18. Using the 2011 National Household Survey, linked with the Immigrant Landing File, this study finds large differences by admission class in university completion rates and earnings for childhood immigrants aged 25 to 44. Children of skilled workers and business immigrants had the highest university completion rates and earnings. Children of live-in caregivers and in the family class had the lowest university completion rates, and children of live-in caregivers and refugees landed in Canada had the lowest earnings. The analysis shows that the admission class of immigrant parents matters to their children's outcomes partly through group differences in the education and official language ability of parents and partly through the unique pre- and post-migration circumstances experienced by each admission class.

This report provides an overview of the current financial health of the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) funded higher education sector in England. This does not include directly funded further education or other colleges, or alternative providers of higher education. The analysis covers financial results for the academic year 2014-15, as submitted to HEFCE in December 2015, as well as the outcomes from the sector's Transparent Approach to Costing (TRAC) reporting for 2014-15, as submitted to HEFCE in January 2016. The report is being published to provide universities and higher education colleges with feedback on their financial performance in 2014-15. It also provides other stakeholders with information about the current financial health of the HEFCE-funded sector. This report focuses on the financial results for 2014-15.

The European labour market is challenged by changes in the demographic composition of the labour force and increasing work complexities and processes. Skills forecasting makes useful contribution to decisions by policy-makers, experts and individuals. In this publication, Cedefop presents the latest results of skills supply and demand forecasts. Alongside the most likely scenario, it shows the impact of alternative labour market activation or migration policies on future labour market imbalances, illustrating the effects of the "highest possible" labour market activity rates based on past and possible future baseline trends. The role of migration in mitigating labour market imbalances is incorporated into the scenario, responding to available job opportunities, income differentials and unemployment levels across Member States. Three annexes are provided: (1) Skills supply: Detailed baseline scenario results; (2) Skills demand: Detailed baseline scenario results; and (3) List of contributing individual country experts.