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Gridded precipitation (PRP) data have been largely used in diagnostic studies on the climate variability in several time scales, as well as to validate model results. The three most used gauge-based PRP datasets are from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), University of Delaware (UDEL), and Climate Research Unit (CRU). This paper evaluates the performance of these datasets in reproducing spatiotemporal PRP climatological features over the entire South America (SA) for the 1901–2015 period, aiming to identify the differences and similarities among the datasets as well as time intervals and areas with potential uncertainties involved with these datasets. Comparisons of the PRP annual means and variances between the 1901–2015 period and the non-overlapping 30-year subperiods of 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and the 25-year subperiod of 1991–2015 for each dataset show varying means of the annual PRP over SA depending on the subperiod and dataset. Consistent patterns among datasets are found in most of southeastern SA and southeastern Brazil, where they evolved gradually from less to more rainy conditions from 1901–1930 to the 1991–2015 subperiod. All three datasets present limitations and uncertainties in regions with poor coverage of gauge stations, where the differences among datasets are more pronounced. In particular, the GPCC presents reduced PRP variability in an extensive area west of 50° W and north of 20° S during the 1901–1930 subperiod. In monthly time scale, PRP time series in two areas show differences among the datasets for periods before 1941, which are likely due to spurious or missing data: central Bolivia (CBO), and central Brazil (CBR). The GPCC has less monthly variability before 1940 than the other two datasets in these two areas, and UDEL presents reduced monthly variability before 1940 and spurious monthly values from May to September of the years from 1929 to 1941 in CBO. Thus, studies with these three datasets might lead to different results depending on the study domain and period of analysis, in particular for those including years before 1941. The results here might be relevant for future diagnostic and modelling studies on climate variability from interannual to multidecadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a comprehensive assessment of a new high-resolution, gauge–satellite-based analysis of daily precipitation over continental South America during 2004. This methodology is based on a combination of additive and multiplicative bias correction schemes to get the lowest bias when compared with the observed values (rain gauges). Intercomparisons and cross-validation tests have been carried out between independent rain gauges and different merging techniques. This validation process was done for the control algorithm [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis real-time algorithm] and five different merging schemes: additive bias correction; ratio bias correction; TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, research version; and the combined scheme proposed in this paper. These methodologies were tested for different months belonging to different seasons and for different network densities. All compared, merging schemes produce better results than the control algorithm; however, when finer temporal (daily) and spatial scale (regional networks) gauge datasets are included in the analysis, the improvement is remarkable. The combined scheme consistently presents the best performance among the five techniques tested in this paper. This is also true when a degraded daily gauge network is used instead of a full dataset. This technique appears to be a suitable tool to produce real-time, high-resolution, gauge- and satellite-based analyses of daily precipitation over land in regional domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although large-scale atmospheric reanalyses are now providing physical, realistic fields for many variables, precipitation remains problematic. As shown in recent studies, using a regional model to downscale the global reanalysis only marginally alleviates the precipitation simulation problems. For this reason, later-generation analyses, including the recent National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional reanalysis, are using precipitation assimilation as a methodology to provide superior precipitation fields. This methodology can also be applied to regional model simulations to substantially improve the precipitation fields downscaled from global reanalysis. As an illustration of the regional model precipitation assimilation impact, the authors describe here an extended-range simulation comparison over South America. The numerical experiments cover the beginning of the Large-Scale Biosphere¿Atmosphere wet season campaign of January 1999. Evaluations using radiosonde datasets obtained during this campaign are provided as well. As will be shown, rain-rate assimilation not only increases the regional model precipitation simulation skill but also provides improvements in other fields influenced by the precipitation. Because of the potential impact on land surface features, the authors believe they will ultimately be able to show improvements in monthly to seasonal forecasts when precipitation assimilation is used to generate more accurate land surface initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset was conceived as a tool for monitoring drought and environmental change over land. Recent validation efforts along South America have assessed its suitability for reproducing the main spatial and temporal features of precipitation. Nevertheless, little has been done regarding the ability of CHIRPS for the assessment of wet and dry conditions, particularly in areas where in situ precipitation records are scarce. In this paper, we investigated the performance of CHIRPS for monitoring wet and dry events along the semiarid Central-Western Argentina. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), we compared the CHIRPS database with records from 49 meteorological stations along the study area for the period 1987–2016. Results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset adequately reproduced the temporal variability of SPI on multiple timescales (1 month, 3 months, and 6 months), particularly in the region dominated by warm season precipitation. The large overestimation of the seasonal precipitation in the region dominated by cold season precipitation can introduce errors that are reflected in the performance of CHIRPS over the western portion of the domain. The frequency of wet and dry classes was accurately reproduced by CHIRPS on timescales larger than 1 month (SPI1), given the existence of a wet bias that produces an underestimation of the frequency of zero values. This bias is further translated to the evaluation of the SPI1 during the spatial and temporal assessment of historical dry (1998) and wet (2016) events, especially for the classification of extreme dry/wet months. The results from the evaluation indicate that CHIRPS is a suitable tool for assessing dry and wet conditions for timescales longer than 1 month and can support decision-making process within the hydrometeorological agencies over the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global warming and climate change are threats to the world. Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns alter water availability and increase the occurrence of extreme weather events. South America and the Andes are vulnerable regions to climate change due to inequity and the uneven distribution of resources. Climate change evaluation often relies on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, the spatial resolution is too coarse and does not provide a realistic climate representation at a local level. This is of particular importance in mountain areas such as the Andes range, where the heterogeneous topography requires a finer spatial resolution to represent the local physical processes. To this end, statistical and/or dynamical downscaling methods are required. Several approaches and applications of downscaling procedures have been carried out in the countries of this region, with different purposes and performances. However, the main objective is to improve the representation of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. A systematic review of these downscaling applications will identify the performance of the methods applied in the Andes region for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. In addition, the meta-analysis could detect factors influencing the performance. The overall goal is to highlight promising methods in terms of fitness for use and identify knowledge gaps in the region. Methods: The review will search and examine published and grey literature on downscaling applications of temperature and precipitation in the Andes region. Predetermined criteria for eligibility will allow the screening of the evidence. Then, the method used in each application will be coded and mapped according to the country, purpose, variable, and type of downscaling. At the same time, quantitative and qualitative data will be extracted. The performance metrics are particularly interesting for this review. A meta-analysis will be conducted for those studies with comparable metrics. A narrative synthesis, maps and heatmaps will show the results. Tables, funnel plots, and meta-regressions will present the meta-analysis. Throughout the review, a critical appraisal step will categorize the validity of the evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different mesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific Ocean; another three WTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors present results on the relationship between tree-ring proxies and regional precipitation for several sites in tropical South America. The responsiveness of oxygen isotopes ( δδ18O) and seasonal growth as precipitation proxies was first validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali myrmecophila from Manaus, Brazil (3.1°°S, 60.0°°W). Monthly growth of Tachigali spp. was significantly correlated with monthly precipitation. Intra-annual measurements of cellulose δδ18O in Tachigali spp. were also significantly correlated with monthly precipitation at a lag of approximately one month. The annual ring widths of two tropical tree taxa, Cedrela odorata growing in the Amazon (12.6°°S, 69.2°°W) and Polylepis tarapacana growing in the Altiplano (22.0°°S, 66.0°°W), were validated using bomb-derived radiocarbon 14C. Estimated dates were within two to three years of bomb-inferred 14C dates, indicating that these species exhibit annual rings but uncertainties in our chronologies remain. A multiproxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela spp. showed a significant negative relationship between cellulose δδ18O and January precipitation. A 150-yr record obtained from Polylepis spp. also showed a significant negative relationship between δδ18O and March precipitation, whereas annual ring width showed a significant positive correlation with December precipitation. These proxies were combined in a multivariate framework to reconstruct past precipitation, revealing a significant increase in monsoon precipitation at the Amazon site since 1890 and a significant decrease in monsoon precipitation at the Altiplano since 1880. Proxy time series also showed spatial and temporal coherence with precipitation variability due to El Niño forcing, suggesting that oxygen isotopes and ring widths in tropical trees may be important diagnostics for identifying regional differences in the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). It was found that the different phases of the MJO show a consistent signal on winter temperature variability and precipitation in southeastern South America. Additionally, this paper explores the spatial–temporal variations of mutual information and joint entropy between temperature and the MJO. A defined spatial pattern was observed with an increased signal in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. In the local mutual information analysis, periods in which the mutual information doubled the average values were observed over the entire region. These results indicate that these connections can be used to forecast winter temperatures with a better skill score in situations where both variables covary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the main features of the weather, climate and climate variability over Andes cordillera in South America on the basis of instrumental observations. We first provide a basic physical understanding of the mean annual cycle of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation and over the Andes and adjacent lowlands. In particular, the diversity of precipitation, temperature and wind patterns is interpreted in terms of the long meridional extent of the Andes and the disruption of the large-scale circulation by this formidable topographic barrier. We also document the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature and precipitation regimes along the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation of the stable water isotope cycle over South America by the regional circulation model REMOiso is discussed. The performance of the regional model, with a resolution of 0.5° (∼55 km), is compared to simulations by the global circulation model ECHAMiso at two coarser resolutions and evaluated against observations of precipitation and δ18O. Here REMOiso is demonstrated to reproduce reasonably well climatic and isotopic features across South America. This paper explores further insights of δ18O as a climate proxy, based on REMOiso’s improvements as compared to ECHAMiso. In particular, the authors focus on the seasonal variation of the amount effect (δ18O decrease with precipitation amounts) and the anomalous δ18O continental gradient across the Amazon basin, as inferred from the REMOiso, ECHAMiso, and GNIP datasets. The finer resolution of topography in REMOiso enables a detailed analysis of the altitude effect: not only the first, but also the second derivative of δ18O with altitude is considered. It appears that high-altitude grid cells show an isotopic signature similar to Rayleigh distillation, in accordance with experimental studies. Finally, a Lagrangian reference frame is adopted to describe the evolution of δ18O in precipitation along its trajectory, in order to relate the simulation analysis to the fractionation mechanisms. This confirms that the amount effect, via Rayleigh distillation processes, is dominant during the wet season. During the dry season, the δ18O in precipitation is controlled by isotopic reequilibration of rain droplets with surrounding vapor, reflecting the impact of nonfractionating transpiration by the vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Tunuyán Valley region (33°–34°S, 69°–70°W) on the eastern side of the highest peaks of the Andes Mountains is sometimes associated with damaging hail. Understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the occurrence of deep convection in that region is therefore a central part of the development of hail suppression projects. In this paper, a case of deep convection that occurred on 22 January 2001 is studied in detail through a combined analysis of radar, satellite, and radiosonde data and numerical simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric (Meso-NH) model. The time evolution and stability characteristics are first documented using the data. In order to get insight into the main causes for the deep convection event, numerical simulations of that day were performed. These results are compared with the results corresponding to conditions of 4 January 2001 when no deep convection occurred. The comparison between the 2 days strongly suggests that the deep convection event occurred because of the simultaneous presence of anabatic winds, accumulation of moist enthalpy, and the stability conditions. The present results should be helpful in designing future observational programs in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global impacts of El Niño on precipitation have been long‐recognized, but more understanding of the mechanisms behind this influence is needed. For instance, previous studies have largely overlooked the potential impacts of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR). We perform a 40‐year forward tracking simulation to derive a global climatology of recycled precipitation and use a composite analysis to investigate how El Niño affects TMR. We identify seven regions where the El Niño impact on TMR is most significant and find that, in these regions, changes in precipitation and TMR are directly related: they increase or decrease together. In addition, we find a marked latitudinal contrast between the Southern Hemisphere, where TMR increases during El Niño, and the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, where it decreases. Our results indicate that the weakening and strengthening of TMR can be behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Plain Language Summary: El Niño is recognized as a climate variability phenomenon with significant impacts on precipitation worldwide. However, the mechanisms behind these impacts are not fully understood. Here we use model simulations to argue that one of those mechanisms is the effect of El Niño on terrestrial moisture recycling (TMR), that is, the fraction of precipitation fed by atmospheric moisture originating not in the ocean but on the continents. We show that El Niño significantly affects TMR globally, especially in seven regions of South America, Africa, North America, Europe, and Asia. In these regions, precipitation and TMR increase or decrease together. We find a contrast between the South and North of the planet: during El Niño, TMR increases in the Southern Hemisphere while decreasing in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Overall, our results indicate that TMR weakening or strengthening are previously overlooked mechanisms behind precipitation changes caused by El Niño globally. Key Points: El Niño exerts significant effects on terrestrial moisture recycling worldwideEl Niño's impacts on terrestrial moisture recycling are most significant in seven regions worldwidePrecipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling increase or decrease together due to El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transient incursions of midlatitude air to the east of the Andes Mountains into subtropical and tropical latitudes are a distinctive feature of the synoptic climatology over South America. The mean synoptic-scale structure of these incursions is documented in this paper on the basis of a compositing analysis of NCEP--NCAR reanalyzed meteorological fields and satellite-based outgoing longwave radiation measurements. Although these incursions are a year-round phenomenon, with relatively modest seasonal changes in their structure, this analysis is focused on the austral summer, when they have their largest impact in the precipitation field. The summertime incursions move equatorward at a mean speed of 10 m s 21 and retain their identities over intervals of about 5 days. The upper-level circulation is characterized by a midlatitude trough--ridge couplet that provides the quasigeostrophic forcing of the system. Before the onset of the incursions of midlatitude air, the approaching upper-level trough tends to deepen the semipermanent area of low pressure over the central plains of the continent (25°--10°S). The strong southward advection of warm, humid air creates favorable conditions for the development of deep convection over central and southern Argentina. During the next two days, a migratory cold anticyclone, steered by the ridge aloft, moves onto the southern plains of South America (40°-- 35°S), establishing a large-scale, southward-directed pressure gradient. Due to the blocking effect of the Andes, the induced low-level circulation assumes the form of an agesotrophic southerly flow that produces the equa-torward advection of the cold air. In this stage, enhanced convection occurs in a well-defined band of the intensified low-level convergence at the leading edge of the cold surge. This synoptic-scale banded structure in the convective cloudiness also emerges as the dominant mode of the day-to-day variability of the deep... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms in southeastern South America (SESA) stand out in satellite observations as being among the strongest on Earth in terms of satellite-based convective proxies, such as lightning flash rate per storm, the prevalence for extremely tall, wide convective cores and broad stratiform regions. Accurately quantifying when and where strong convection is initiated presents great interest in operational forecasting and convective system process studies due to the relationship between convective storms and severe weather phenomena. This paper generates a novel methodology to determine convective initiation (CI) signatures associated with extreme convective systems, including extreme events. Based on the well-established area-overlapping technique, an adaptive brightness temperature threshold for identification and backward tracking with infrared data is introduced in order to better identify areas of deep convection associated with and embedded within larger cloud clusters. This is particularly important over SESA because ground-based weather radar observations are currently limited to particular areas. Extreme rain precipitation features (ERPFs) from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are examined to quantify the full satellite-observed life cycle of extreme convective events, although this technique allows examination of other intense convection proxies such as the identification of overshooting tops. CI annual and diurnal cycles are analyzed and distinctive behaviors are observed for different regions over SESA. It is found that near principal mountain barriers, a bimodal diurnal CI distribution is observed denoting the existence of multiple CI triggers, while convective initiation over flat terrain has a maximum frequency in the afternoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Conventional surface data and quantitative estimations of precipitation are used to document the occurrence and spatial distribution of severe weather phenomena associated with deep moist convection over southeastern South America. Data used in this paper are 24-hour rainfall, maximum hourly gusts and present weather reports from the surface station network for Argentina to the north of 40°S and cover the period 2000–2005. Hourly rainfall estimated with the CMORPH technique (CPC MORPHing technique, R. J. Joyce et al., 2004) is included in the analysis in order to increase the density of the precipitation database from January 2003 to December 2005. Extreme events are detected by means of a 95th-percentile analysis of the 24-hour rainfall and wind; values greater than 30mm and 25ms−1 respectively are considered extreme in the study area. These results are related to the presence of deep convection by considering the 235K and 218K cloud shield evolution in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 Infrared (GOES-IR) imagery evaluated by the Forecasting and Tracking of Cloud Cluster (FORTRACC) technique. Rainfall above 30mmday−1 and present convection-related weather events tend to occur in the northeast of the country. Finally, an analysis is made of the relationship between severe phenomena and the location and lifecycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) defined by the 218K or 235K levels. According to the reports, favorable locations for severe weather concentrate to the northeast of the cloud shield anvil centroid although most of the cases are found in the northwest. This feature can be seen in systems with anvil areas larger than 250,000km2 in association to the predominant mid-level wind shear direction from the northwest over the area. Moreover, systems with centers located north of 30°S present a more circular shape while those to the south are more elongated with a NW–SE main axis clearly related to the presence and interaction with frontal zones over the area. Most of the events occur previous to the moment when the systems reach their maximum extension, between 2 and 10h after the initiation of the system depending on the size of the MCSs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest regions on Earth, although available regional precipitation estimates vary considerably. This uncertainty complicates understanding and quantifying the observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession, biodiversity decline in fjord ecosystems and enhanced net primary production. The Patagonian Icefields, for example, are one of the largest contributors to sea-level rise outside the polar regions, and robust hydroclimatic projections are needed to understand and quantify current and future mass changes. The reported projections of precipitation from numerical modelling studies tend to overestimate those from in situ determinations, and the plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes. Here I use simple physical arguments and a linear model to test the plausibility of the current precipitation estimates and its impact on the Patagonian Icefields. The results show that environmental conditions required to sustain a mean precipitation amount exceeding 6.09±0.64 m yr -1 are untenable according to the regional moisture flux. The revised precipitation values imply a significant reduction in the surface mass balance of the Patagonian Icefields compared to previously reported values. This yields a new perspective on the response of Patagonia's glaciers to climate change and their sea-level contribution and might also help reduce uncertainties in the change of other precipitation-driven environmental phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents an analysis of the observed trends in extreme precipitation events in the Paraná River basin (PRB) from 1977 to 2016 (40 yr) based on daily records from 853 stations. The Mann–Kendall test and inverse-distance-weighted interpolation were applied to annual and seasonal precipitation and also for four extreme precipitation indices. The results show that the negative trends (significance at 95% confidence level) in annual and seasonal series are mainly located in the northern and northeastern parts of the basin. In contrast, except in the autumn season, positive trends were concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin, most notably for annual and summer precipitation. The spatial distributions of the indices of annual maximum 5-day precipitation and number of rainstorms indicate that significant positive trends are mostly located in the south-southeast part of the basin and that significant negative trends are mostly located in the north-northeast part. The index of the annual number of dry days shows that 88% of significant trends are positive and that most of these are located in the northern region of the PRB, which is a region with a high number of consecutive dry days (>90). The simple daily intensity index showed the highest number of stations (263) with mostly positive significant trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, five-year of precipitation features (PFs) datasets, based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), are used to investigate the global and regional characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs). The EREs are defined based on the PFs area, depth (maximum height of radar reflectivity), and the rain rate and called them largest, deepest, and intense EREs, respectively. The EREs are divided into top 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% based on their frequency of occurrences. It is observed that occurrences of EREs belonging to less than top 0.01% EREs follow the tropical rainfall climatology over the tropics based on all the parameters. Subtropical oceanic areas consist of a higher frequency of largest EREs, whereas tropical land areas consist of the higher number of deepest EREs. The most intense EREs (top 0.01%) are uniformly distributed over tropical areas and subtropical oceans, and spatial distribution shows that a deepest ERE belongs to intense EREs in the tropical land areas. Large differences between the precipitation contribution from the largest and deepest EREs are seen; for example, the top 1% of largest EREs contribute to ∼80.7% of Earth's precipitation, whereas the corresponding percentage for deepest EREs is only 53%. On the regional and seasonal scale, South Asia (SAsia) and South America (SA) nearly show common features, as oceanic and land areas consist of largest and deepest EREs, respectively, and contribute to higher precipitation. Subtropical latitudes over South America, including Sierra de Cordoba and La Plata basin, consist of deepest and intense EREs and match with those of the Indo-Gangetic plain over South Asia, which also shows the similar characteristics. EREs based on various parameters are strongly linked over SAsia compared to SA. For example, the largest top 10% EREs have a higher probability to be part of the top 10% deepest and intense EREs over SAsia. The seasonal and regional water budget reveals different characteristics, as in the southern hemisphere, the deeper EREs contribute to the higher fraction of rainfall, but over SAsia, the shallower EREs could also contribute to significant rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin‐wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of the underlying atmospheric mechanism—specifically how it evolves in the context of land‐atmosphere interaction and the diurnal cycle—are unresolved. We investigate this using idealized model simulations and find that within 24 hr of a CO2 increase, changes occur over the Amazon that engender synoptic timescale feedbacks. Decreased evapotranspiration from the rainforest throttles near‐surface moisture, inducing a drier, warmer, and deeper boundary layer. Above this, enhanced turbulent diffusivity increases vapor in the lower free troposphere. Together, these processes reduce convective activity and cause immediate decreases in Amazon rainfall. Over the synoptic timescale, these changes leave behind lower tropospheric moisture, which is advected westward by the background jet and increases Andean precipitation. This produces a dipole of precipitation change consistent across global and regional models as well as parameterized and resolved convection, though details are sensitive to model topography and boundary layer formulation. The mechanism reported here stresses the importance of fast timescale processes affecting stability over a period of hours that can influence longer‐term vegetation‐climate interactions. These results help clarify the Amazon's physiological response to rising CO2 and provide insight into possible causes of historical model biases and end‐of‐century uncertainty in this region. Key Points: Increasing CO2 over the Amazon causes a drier, warmer, and expanded boundary layer and reduces basin‐wide rainfall within the first dayOn synoptic timescales, enhanced lower free troposphere moisture is advected westward by the low‐level jet, increasing Andean rainfallA wetter Andes, dryer Amazon pattern is robust across regional and global climate models and for different convective formulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show an increase in maximum precipitation extremes and a decrease in maximum temperature extremes over southeastern South America (SESA) in the second half of the twentieth century. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) experiments are able to successfully reproduce the observed trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA. Careful analysis of a smaller ensemble of CESM-LE single forcing experiments reveals that the trends of extreme precipitation and temperature over SESA are mostly caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. The underlying dynamical mechanism is investigated and it is found that, as a consequence of stratospheric ozone depletion and the resulting southward shift of tropospheric jet streams, anomalous easterly flow and more intense cyclones have occurred over SESA, which are favorable for heavier rainfall extremes and milder heat extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remote atmosphere over the Amazon can be similar to oceanic regions in terms of aerosol conditions and cloud type formations. This is especially true during the wet season. The main aerosol-related disturbances over the Amazon have both natural sources, such as dust transport from Africa, and anthropogenic sources, such as biomass burning or urban pollution. The present work considers the impacts of the latter on the microphysical properties of warm-phase clouds by analysing observations of the interactions between the Manaus pollution plume and its surroundings, as part of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The analysed period corresponds to the wet season (specifically from February to March 2014 and corresponding to the first Intensive Operating Period (IOP1) of GoAmazon2014/5). The droplet size distributions reported are in the range 1 µm ≤ D ≤ 50 µm in order to capture the processes leading up to the precipitation formation. The wet season largely presents a clean background atmosphere characterized by frequent rain showers. As such, the contrast between background clouds and those affected by the Manaus pollution can be observed and detailed. The focus is on the characteristics of the initial microphysical properties in cumulus clouds predominantly at their early stages. The pollution-affected clouds are found to have smaller effective diameters and higher droplet number concentrations. The differences range from 10 to 40% for the effective diameter and are as high as 1000% for droplet concentration for the same vertical levels. The growth rates of droplets with altitude are slower for pollution-affected clouds (2.90 compared to 5.59 µm km-1), as explained by the absence of bigger droplets at the onset of cloud development. Clouds under background conditions have higher concentrations of larger droplets (>20 µm) near the cloud base, which would contribute significantly to the growth rates through the collision-coalescence process. The overall shape of the droplet size distribution (DSD) does not appear to be predominantly determined by updraught strength, especially beyond the 20 µm range. The aerosol conditions play a major role in that case. However, the updraughts modulate the DSD concentrations and are responsible for the vertical transport of water in the cloud. The larger droplets found in background clouds are associated with weak water vapour competition and a bimodal distribution of droplet sizes in the lower levels of the cloud, which enables an earlier initiation of the collision-coalescence process. This study shows that the pollution produced by Manaus significantly affects warmphase microphysical properties of the surrounding clouds by changing the initial DSD formation. The corresponding effects on ice-phase processes and precipitation formation will be the focus of future endeavours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of sources or sinks of moisture and heat for the South American monsoon system (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958-1995 period. So, moisture and heat budget equations are applied to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are the equation residues and are referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the dominant variability modes of these terms are obtained for the study period, with the monthly anomalies of the residue and diabatic terms employed. For residue EOF01, negative (positive) principal component (PC01) values correspond to positive (negative) residue anomalies over tropical South America (TSAM), which indicate a moisture source (sink) before (after) 1976, cold (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). For the EOF01 of the diabatic term, negative (positive) PC01 values correspond to negative (positive) diabatic anomalies over TSAM, indicating a heat sink (source) before (after) 1976. Thus, a moisture source (sink) and a heat sink (source) occur over TSAM before (after) 1976. These findings are corroborated by composite analysis of the anomalies of precipitable water, 850 hPa air temperature, 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity, vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF), VIMF divergence, and precipitation. In terms of system thermodynamics, these composites are indicative of SAMS weakening (strengthening) before (after) 1976, cold (warm) PDO phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have induced socioeconomic impacts of wide proportions. Hence, the evaluation of rainfall simulations at seasonal and interannual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required. Here, we evaluated the ability of seven CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its interannual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land. This is probably due to the fact that during these seasons, incoming radiation and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere, as suggested by previous studies. Models exhibit the worse simulations during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates how the integrated land use of northern South America has affected the present day regional patterns of hydrology. A model of the terrestrial ecosystems (ecosystem demography model 2: ED2) is combined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: BRAMS). Two realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as the sole differences in boundary conditions that drive two simulations. One realization captures the present day vegetation condition that includes deforestation and land conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region's vegetation without human influence. Model output is assessed for differences in resulting hydrometeorology. The simulations suggest that the history of land conversion in northern South America is not associated with a significant precipitation bias in the northern part of the continent, but has shown evidence of a negative bias in mean regional evapotranspiration and a positive bias in mean regional runoff. Also, negative anomalies in evaporation rates showed pattern similarity with areas where deforestation has occurred. In the central eastern Amazon there was an area where deforestation and abandonment had lead to an overall reduction of above-ground biomass, but this was accompanied by a shift in forest composition towards early successional functional types and grid-average-patterned increases in annual transpiration. Anomalies in annual precipitation showed mixed evidence of consistent patterning. Two focus areas were identified where more consistent precipitation anomalies formed, one in the Brazilian state of Pará where a dipole pattern formed, and one in the Bolivian Gran Chaco, where a negative anomaly was identified. These locations were scrutinized to understand the basis of their anomalous hydrometeorologic response. In both cases, deforestation led to increased total surface albedo, driving decreases in net radiation, boundary layer moist static energy and ultimately decreased convective precipitation. In the case of the Gran Chaco, decreased precipitation was also a result of decreased advective moisture transport, indicating that differences in local hydrometeorology may manifest via teleconnections with the greater region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work discusses the land surface-atmosphere interactions during the severe drought of 2008 in southern South America, which was among the most severe in the last 50 years in terms of both intensity and extent. Once precipitation returned to normal values, it took about two months for the soil moisture content and vegetation to recover. The land surface effects were examined by contrasting long-term simulations using a consistent set of satellite-derived annually varying land surface biophysical properties against simulations using the conventional land-cover types in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Noah land surface model (WRF-Noah). The new land-cover dataset is based on ecosystem functional properties that capture changes in vegetation status due to climate anomalies and land-use changes. The results show that the use of realistic information of vegetation states enhances the model performance, reducing the precipitation biases over the drought region and over areas of excessive precipitation. The precipitation bias reductions are attributed to the corresponding changes in greenness fraction, leaf area index, stomatal resistance, and surface roughness. The temperature simulation shows a generalized increase, which is attributable to a lower vegetation greenness and a doubling of the stomatal resistance that reduces the evapotranspiration rate. The increase of temperature has a beneficial effect toward the eastern part of the domain with a notable reduction of the bias, but not over the central region where the bias is increased. The overall results suggest that an improved representation of the surface processes may contribute to improving the predictive skill of the model system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identifies possible hotspots of climate change in South America through an examination of the spatial pattern of the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) over the region by the end of the twenty-first century. The RCCI is a qualitative index that can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, and it is suitable for identifying those regions where climate change could be more pronounced in a warmer climate. The reliability and uncertainties of the results are evaluated by using numerous state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) and forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5. The results show that southern Amazonia and the central-western region and western portion of Minas Gerais state in Brazil are persistent climate change hotspots through different forcing scenarios and GCM datasets. In general, as the scenarios vary from low- to high-level forcing, the area of high values of RCCI increase and the magnitude intensify from central-western and southeast Brazil to northwest South America. In general, the climatic hotspots identified in this study are characterized by an increase of mean surface air temperature, mainly in the austral winter; by an increase of interannual temperature variability, predominantly in the austral summer; and by a change in the mean and interannual variability of precipitation during the austral winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). Wefind that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Chile is a densely populated region along the west coast of subtropical South America (30°-36°S), limited to the east by the Andes. Precipitation is concentrated in austral winter, mostly associated with the passage of cold fronts. The freezing level over central Chile is typically between 1500 and 2500 m when precipitation is present. In about a third of the cases, however, precipitation occurs accompanied by warm temperatures and freezing levels above 3000 m, leading to a sizeable increment in the pluvial area of Andean basins and setting the stage for hydrometeorological hazards. Here, warm winter storms in central Chile are studied, including a statistical description of their occurrence and an estimate of their hydrological impacts. Remote-sensed data and high-resolution reanalysis are used to explore the synoptic-scale environment of a typical case, generalized later by a compositing analysis. The structure of warm storms is also contrasted with that of the more recurrent cold cases. Precipitation during warm events occurs in the warm sector of a slow-moving cold front because of the intense moisture flux against the mountains in connection with a land-falling atmospheric river. This is in turn driven by a strong zonal jet aloft and reduced mechanical blocking upstream of the Andes. On a broader scale, a key element is the presence of a slowly moving anticyclone over the south Pacific, fostering advection of cold air into midlatitudes. The intense and persistent zonal jet stretches a moist-air corridor from the central Pacific to the west coast of South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to assess the ability of a set of global climate models (GCMs) to represent the main regional spatial patterns of austral summer moisture transport in South America in order to evaluate if one of the possible causes of GCMs misestimating summer precipitation in this region could be associated with an erroneous representation of these patterns. For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and 20 GCMs from the WCRP/CMIP3 multi-model dataset for the period 1960-1999 were considered. Extreme cases of moisture transport patterns were selected to assess their association with rainfall anomalies. Results obtained indicate that only some aspects of water vapor transport and convergence in South America as well as the associated precipitation anomalies can be reproduced adequately by GCMs. Finally, a case study is presented showing that one of the moisture transport patterns identified was observed during December 2008-February 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar data are used to study the physical properties of the precipitating cloud systems that account for the summer rainfall of tropical and subtropical South America. Radar echoes in the continental subtropics tend to be of an intensely convective nature, especially at the eastern foothills of the Andes where diurnally forced deep convective cells of small horizontal scale form when moist low-level flow is driven toward the foothills in connection with a midlatitude disturbance. As the disturbance moves east over the La Plata basin, nocturnal convective systems of larger horizontal scale with wide stratiform regions occur in a zone of general convergence. Precipitation in the continental tropics is generally produced by convective systems with greater stratiform composition. At the northeastern foothills of the central Andes, radar echoes of nocturnal convective systems of medium to large horizontal scale occur where moist low-level flow is lifted over the foothills. Growth of systems to large size is inhibited by daytime divergence at the foothills. Over the Amazon basin, daytime systems are also smaller than nocturnal systems. Radar echoes of precipitation over the Brazilian Highlands are generally smaller in horizontal scale, more convective, and mostly occur during the afternoon over elevated terrain. In the oceanic South Atlantic convergence zone, radar echoes grow to extremely large sizes. They are highly stratiform in nature and occur during all times of the day except late evening when convergence is weakened as a response to continental heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different techniques for obtaining probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) over South America are tested during the 2002-2003 warm season. They have been applied to a regional ensemble system which uses the breeding technique to generate initial and boundary conditions perturbations. This comparison involves seven algorithms and also includes experiments to select an adequate size for the training period. Results show that the sensitivity to different calibration strategies is small with the exception of the rank histogram algorithm. The inclusion of the ensemble spread or the use of different ensemble members for the computation of probabilities shows almost no improvement with respect to probabilistic forecasts computed using the ensemble mean. This is basically due to the strong relationship between precipitation error and its amount. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assess how the anthropogenically induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations affects the climate of central and southern South America. We utilise two regional climate simulations for present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI) times. These simulations are compared to historical reconstructions in order to investigate the driving processes responsible for climatic changes between the different periods. The regional climate model is validated against observations for both re-analysis data and GCM-driven regional simulations for the second half of the 20th century. Model biases are also taken into account for the interpretation of the model results. The added value of the regional simulation over global-scale modelling relates to a better representation of hydrological processes that are particularly evident in the proximity of the Andes Mountains. Climatic differences between the simulated PD minus PI period agree qualitatively well with proxy-based temperature reconstructions, albeit the regional model overestimates the amplitude of the temperature increase. For precipitation the most important changes between the PD and PI simulation relate to a dipole pattern along the Andes Mountains with increased precipitation over the southern parts and reduced precipitation over the central parts. Here only a few regions show robust similarity with studies based on empirical evidence. However, from a dynamical point-of-view, atmospheric circulation changes related to an increase in high-latitude zonal wind speed simulated by the regional climate model are consistent with numerical modelling studies addressing changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results indicate that besides the direct effect of greenhouse gas changes, large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures also exert an influence on temperature and precipitation changes in southern South America. These combined changes in turn affect the relationship between climate and atmospheric circulation between PD and PI times and should be considered for the statistical reconstruction of climate indices calibrated within presentday climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of precipitation in central Chile falls during austral winter with the passage of surface and upper-level low pressure systems and their associated surface fronts. Earlier studies have found the presence of a terrain-parallel, low-level barrier jet during cold front passage and low-level wind convergence in the region of heaviest precipitation. This study advances these findings by developing multiyear climatologies for a rainfall event in central Chile using a broad cross section of observational datasets: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD), the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA), the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. For this study, a precipitation event was defined as daily rainfall exceeding a certain threshold at a Santiago observing station (Pudahuel). Climatologies were developed for a five-day period surrounding the precipitation event: the three days leading up to the day of precipitation at Pudahuel, the day of the precipitation itself, and the day after. Precipitation was found to move northeastward over the southeast Pacific toward central Chile and increase in intensity upon reaching reached the coast between 33° and 40°S. At middle levels, a pronounced 500-hPa trough moved eastward and amplified during the same period, and at the surface, an area of low pressure deepened and followed the same path to the east. In the boundary layer and lower troposphere, winds at 925 and 850 hPa became exclusively north-northwesterly, suggesting the existence of a low-level jet, and surface winds backed with time and increased in speed ahead of a well-defined cold front wind shift. As these winds became more northwesterly ahead of the upper-level trough and surface low, precipitable water values increased, and a tongue of high precipitable water air intersected the coast at the same location as the region of heaviest precipitation. These climatologies, based on hundreds of cases, together provide strong confirmation that forcing associated with an eastward-progressing upper-level trough, a terrain-parallel low-level wind maximum, and an advancing surface cold front together constitute the complex, complementary mechanisms for precipitation in central Chile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme orogenic convective storms in southeastern South America are divided into three categories: storms with deep convective cores, storms with wide convective cores, and storms containing broad stratiform regions. Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite''s Precipitation Radar show that storms with wide convective cores are the most frequent, tending to originate near the Sierra de Cordoba range. Downslope flow at upper levels caps a nocturnally enhanced low-level jet, thus preventing convection from breaking out until the jet hits a steep slope of terrain, such as the Sierra de Cordoba Mountains or Andean foothills, so that the moist low-level air is lifted enough to release the instability and overcome the cap. This capping and triggering is similar to the way intense convection is released near the northwestern Himalayas. However, the intense storms with wide convective cores over southeastern South America are unlike their Himalayan counterparts in that they exhibit leading-line/trailing-stratiform organization and are influenced by baroclinic troughs more similar to storms east of the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Comparison of South American storms containing wide convective cores with storms in other parts of the world contributes to a global understanding of how major mountain ranges influence precipitating cloud systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent increase of atmospheric methane is investigated by using two atmospheric inversions to quantify the distribution of sources and sinks for the 2006-2008 period, and a process-based model of methane emissions by natural wetland ecosystems. Methane emissions derived from the two inversions are consistent at a global scale: emissions are decreased in 2006 (-7 Tg) and increased in 2007 (+21 Tg) and 2008 (+18 Tg), as compared to the 1999-2006 period. The agreement on the latitudinal partition of the flux anomalies for the two inversions is fair in 2006, good in 2007, and not good in 2008. In 2007, a positive anomaly of tropical emissions is found to be the main contributor to the global emission anomalies (~60-80%) for both inversions, with a dominant share attributed to natural wetlands (~2/3), and a significant contribution from high latitudes (~25%). The wetland ecosystem model produces smaller and more balanced positive emission anomalies between the tropics and the high latitudes for 2006, 2007 and 2008, mainly due to precipitation changes during these years. At a global scale, the agreement between the ecosystem model and the inversions is good in 2008 but not satisfying in 2006 and 2007. Tropical South America and Boreal Eurasia appear to be major contributors to variations in methane emissions consistently in the inversions and the ecosystem model. Finally, changes in OH radicals during 2006-2008 are found to be less than I% in inversions, with only a small impact on the interred methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

•We used a climate–vegetation–natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, savanna, and the forest–savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. •Initially, under current environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. •Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6°C warming, +10 to −20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. •The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a widening of the forest–savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existence of a significant simultaneous correlation between bimonthly mean precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America (SESA) and either the first or the second (depending on season) leading mode of interannual variability of upper-level wind over South America (SA) is demonstrated during all seasons except winter. The pattern associated with these modes of variability is similar during all seasons and consists of a continental-scale vortex centered over the eastern coast of subtropical SA. The vortex has a quasi-barotropic structure during all seasons, and its variability modifies moisture transport from the South American low-level jet and the western tropical Atlantic to SESA thus creating precipitation anomalies in this region. During spring (October–November) and summer (January–February) the circulation creates a second center of precipitation anomalies over the South Atlantic convergence zone that are of opposite sign to those over SESA, while during fall (April–May) precipitation anomalies are primarily confined to SESA. On the basis of the correlation between upper-level winds and precipitation, an empirical method to produce long-range forecasts of bimonthly mean precipitation over SESA is developed. Method tests in hindcast mode for the period 1959–2001 show a potential for reliable predictions during the southern spring, summer, and fall. The method is further tested in an experimental mode by using Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) wind hindcasts. Forecasts obtained in this way are skillful during spring only, with highest skill during El Niño–Southern Oscillation years. During summer and fall, the DEMETER forecasts of wind anomalies limit the method’s ability to make reliable real predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geophagy is well known among some Neotropical parrots. The clay apparently adsorbs dietary toxins and/or provides supplemental nutrients. We used location data and 23 environmental layers to develop a predictive model of claylick distribution using Maxent software. We related species characteristics to claylick use and examined how parrot assemblages using claylicks changed with distance from the centre of claylick distribution. Fifty-two parrot claylicks were reported from an area of ca 4 million km2 but over 50% were restricted to a 35 000 km2 region of southeast Peru and northern Bolivia. Claylicks were strongly associated with moist forest on younger (<65 millions of yr) geological formations and exposed river banks. The predictive model of claylick distribution matched our reported range well, with precipitation of warmest quarter, land cover, temperature seasonality, and distance from the ocean being most important predictors of claylick presence. Twenty-six of the region's 46 parrot species visited claylicks. Species differed greatly in their lick use, but body size, dietary breadth, abundance and other traits were poor predictors of lick use. We are confident that our survey identified the distribution of major parrot claylicks in South America, although less conspicuous parrot geophagy may occur elsewhere. We suggest that claylick distribution reflects both underlying geology (allowing claylick formation in only some regions) and the physiological need for geophagy among parrots in different parts of the continent. Data on the latter are inconclusive, but we argue that parrot claylick distribution supports the contention that geophagy is related more to sodium deficiencies than to protection from dietary toxins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Center Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) in describing the seasonal variability of the main climatological features over South America and adjacent oceans, in long-term simulations (30 years, 1961–1990). The analysis was performed using seasonal averages from observed and simulated precipitation, temperature, and lower- and upper-level circulation. Precipitation and temperature patterns as well as the main general circulation features, including details captured by the model at finer scales than those resolved by the global model, were simulated by the model. However, in the regional model, there are still systematic errors which might be related to the physics of the model (convective schemes, topography, and land-surface processes) and the lateral boundary conditions and possible biases inherited from the global model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms associated with the intraseasonal variability of precipitation over South America during the spring season are investigated with emphasis on the influence of a quasi-stationary anomalous circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean (SEP). A spectral analysis performed to the bandpass-filtered time series of daily precipitation anomalies for the La Plata Basin (LPB) and the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) regions revealed several statistically relevant peaks corresponding to periods of roughly 23 days and 14–16 days—with the lower (higher) frequency peaks more prevalent for the SACZ (LPB). The large-scale circulation patterns preconditioning precipitation variability over both regions were explored by means of a regression analysis performed on the daily 500-hPa geopotential anomaly field provided by the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. The most prominent feature of the regression fields is the presence of a quasi-stationary anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the LPB (SACZ) and, emanating from that high (low), an external Rossby wave propagating northeastward toward the South American continent. The synoptic-scale activity, quantified in terms of a frontal activity index, showed a strong influence on precipitation over the LPB and to a lesser extent over the SACZ. Moreover, the frontal activity is actually modulated by the anomalous high circulation over the SEP region. The behavior of this anomalous circulation may be supported by a positive feedback mechanism that can enhance the response of the high anomaly itself, which in turns reinforces the Rossby wave train propagating toward the South American continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal stability of the southern annular mode (SAM) impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate during austral spring is analyzed. Results show changes in the typical hemispheric circulation pattern associated with SAM, particularly over South America and Australia, between the 1960s–70s and 1980s–90s. In the first decades, the SAM positive phase is associated with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation developed in the southwestern subtropical Atlantic that enhances moisture advection and promotes precipitation increase over southeastern South America (SESA). On the other hand, during the last decades the anticyclonic anomaly induced by the SAM’s positive phase covers most of southern South America and the adjacent Atlantic, producing weakened moisture convergence and decreased precipitation over SESA as well as positive temperature anomaly advection over southern South America. Some stations in the Australia–New Zealand sector and Africa exhibit significant correlations between the SAM and precipitation anomalies in both or one of the subperiods, but they do not characterize a consistent area in which the SAM signal can be certainly determined. Significant changes of SAM influence on temperature anomalies on multidecadal time scales are observed elsewhere. Particularly over the Australia–New Zealand sector, significant positive correlations during the first decades become insignificant or even negative in the later period, whereas changes of opposite sign occur in the Antarctic Peninsula between both subperiods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The definition and derivation of a 5-yr, 0.125°, 3-hourly atmospheric forcing dataset that is appropriate for use in a Land Data Assimilation System operating across South America is described. Because surface observations are limited in this region, many of the variables were taken from the South American Regional Reanalysis; however, remotely sensed data were merged with surface observations to calculate the precipitation and downward shortwave radiation fields. The quality of this dataset was evaluated against the surface observations available. There are regional differences in the biases for all variables in the dataset, with volumetric biases in precipitation of the order 0–1 mm day-1 and RMSE of 5–15 mm day-1, biases in surface solar radiation of the order 10 W m-2 and RMSE of 20 W m-2, positive biases in temperature typically between 0 and 4 K depending on the region, and positive biases in specific humidity around 2–3 g kg-1 in tropical regions and negative biases around 1–2 g kg-1 farther south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall trends in subtropical South America east of the Andes during the period 1960–1999 were studied in connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. In addition, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis were used to look at the connection between rainfall trends and the interannual variability of the low-level atmospheric circulation. South of 22° S, annual rainfall trends were positive everywhere, and statistically significant over part of western subtropical Argentina. Over most of the region, trends resulted mostly from the warm semester (October–March) trends with little contribution from the cold semester (April–September). Under certain conditions, linear precipitation trends of each ENSO phase add up to the total rainfall trend. In northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil and Paraguay, half of the annual rainfall trend came from El Niño phase with a minor contribution from La Niña and the neutral phase. However, in most of subtropical South America, east of the Andes, precipitation trends during the extreme phases of the ENSO constitute only a small part of the trends. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to the monthly SLP fields of the austral warm semester. The mode that advects humid air from the Atlantic Ocean over most of Argentina and Uruguay has grown at the expense of the one that favors the flow from the tropical forest over the eastern part of the continent. South of 30° S, annual rainfall trends took place predominantly during the neutral phase of the ENSO, and were related to the trends of the first two SLP leading modes. On the other hand, the annual trends were negative in the continental part of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), but with contributions from all ENSO phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily rain-rate data, systematic changes in intensity and location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) were detected along the equator during boreal spring. It is found that the changes in convection over the tropical Atlantic may be induced by deep convection in equatorial South America. Lagged regression analyses demonstrate that the anomalies of convection developed over the land propagate eastward across the Atlantic and then into Africa. The eastward-propagating disturbances appear to be convectively coupled Kelvin waves with a period of 6–7.5 days and a phase speed of around 15 m s-1. These waves modulate the intensity and location of the convection in the tropical Atlantic and result in a zonal variation of the Atlantic ITCZ on synoptic time scales. The convectively coupled Kelvin wave has substantial signals in both the lower and upper troposphere. Both a reanalysis dataset and the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface wind are used to characterize the Kelvin wave. This study suggests that synoptic-scale variation of the Atlantic ITCZ may be linked to precipitation anomalies in South America through the convectively coupled Kelvin wave. The results imply that the changes of Amazon convection could contribute to the large variability of the tropical Atlantic ITCZ observed during boreal spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a weaker and southward shifted Bolivian high (BH). But, the Nordeste low (NL) is located close to its climatological position. In the EtaClim the position of the BH is reproduced well, but the NL is shifted towards the interior of the continent. To the east of Andes, the RegCM3 simulates a weaker low level jet and a weaker basic flow from the tropical Atlantic to Amazonia while they are stronger in the EtaClim. In general, the RegCM3 and EtaClim show, respectively a negative and positive bias in the surface temperature in almost all regions of South America. For both models, the correlation coefficients between the simulated precipitation and the GPCP data are high over most of South America. Although the RegCM3 and EtaClim overestimate the precipitation in the Andes region they show a negative bias in general over the entire South America. The simulations of upper and lower level circulations and precipitation fields in EtaClim were better than that of the RegCM3. In central Amazonia both models were unable to simulate the precipitation correctly. The results showed that although the RegCM3 and EtaClim are capable of simulating the main climatological features of the summer climate over South America, there are areas which need improvement. This indicates that the models must be more adequately tuned in order to give reliable predictions in the different regions of South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America during two extreme cases: the 1997–1998 El Niño and 1998–1999 La Niña. The results showed that both the models are successful in simulating the interannual variability of summer quasi-stationary circulation over South America. Both the models simulated the intensification of subtropical jet stream during the El Niño event, which favoured the blocking of transient systems and increased the precipitation over south Brazil. The models simulated the increase (decrease) of precipitation over north (west) Amazonia during the La Niña (El Niño) event. The upper level circulation is in agreement with the simulated distribution of precipitation. In general, the results showed that both the models are capable of capturing the main changes of the summer climate over South America during these two extreme cases and consequently they have potential to predict climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]