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Long-range weather forecasts provide predictions of atmospheric, ocean and land surface conditions that can potentially be used in land surface and hydrological models to predict the water and energy status of the land surface or in crop growth models to predict yield for water resources or agricultural planning. However, the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of available forecast products have hindered their widespread use in such modelling applications, which usually require high-resolution input data. In this study, we applied sub-seasonal (up to 4 months) and seasonal (7 months) weather forecasts from the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) in a land surface modelling approach using the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5). Simulations were conducted for 2017–2020 forced with sub-seasonal and seasonal weather forecasts over two different domains with contrasting climate and cropping conditions: the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (DE-NRW) and the Australian state of Victoria (AUS-VIC). We found that, after pre-processing of the forecast products (i.e. temporal downscaling of precipitation and incoming short-wave radiation), the simulations forced with seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts were able to provide a model output that was very close to the reference simulation results forced by reanalysis data (the mean annual crop yield showed maximum differences of 0.28 and 0.36 t ha -1 for AUS-VIC and DE-NRW respectively). Differences between seasonal and sub-seasonal experiments were insignificant. The forecast experiments were able to satisfactorily capture recorded inter-annual variations of crop yield. In addition, they also reproduced the generally higher inter-annual differences in crop yield across the AUS-VIC domain (approximately 50 % inter-annual differences in recorded yields and up to 17 % inter-annual differences in simulated yields) compared to the DE-NRW domain (approximately 15 % inter-annual differences in recorded yields and up to 5 % in simulated yields). The high- and low-yield seasons (2020 and 2018) among the 4 simulated years were clearly reproduced in the forecast simulation results. Furthermore, sub-seasonal and seasonal simulations reflected the early harvest in the drought year of 2018 in the DE-NRW domain. However, simulated inter-annual yield variability was lower in all simulations compared to the official statistics. While general soil moisture trends, such as the European drought in 2018, were captured by the seasonal experiments, we found systematic overestimations and underestimations in both the forecast and reference simulations compared to the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-3 soil moisture product (SMAP L3) and the Soil Moisture Climate Change Initiative Combined dataset from the European Space Agency (ESA CCI). These observed biases of soil moisture and the low inter-annual differences in simulated crop yield indicate the need to improve the representation of these variables in CLM5 to increase the model sensitivity to drought stress and other crop stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the fundamental regulator of energy exchange in the vegetation–soil–atmosphere circulation system, soil moisture is a key parameter for drought monitoring and is indispensable to the land surface hydrological processes. In order to overcome the constraints of the Perpendicular Drought Index, PDI (performs poorly over the fields with dense vegetation and hard to construct the soil line), and the Temperature Vegetation Drought Index, TVDI (requires similar atmospheric forcing and large enough dimension of mapping area), in soil moisture monitoring, a new drought index (Normalized Temperature Drought Index, NTDI) is proposed to explore the spatiotemporal changes of soil moisture by substituting red and near-infrared reflectances with vegetation index and normalized land surface temperature on the basis of the PDI framework. Victoria, Australia, was selected as the study area as it experiences many severe droughts and has been affected for more than ten years. Time series of satellite-based data were applied to evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of the NTDI at the regional scale. Results indicated that the expression of the soil line representing the water condition of the bare soil is easier to obtain in the new trapezoid framework and has good fits with the coefficients of determination (R2) of more than 0.8. Compared with PDI, TVDI and Modified PDI (MPDI) at the cropping sites, NTDI exhibits a relatively better performance in soil moisture monitoring for most days where the R2 achieved can reach to more than 0.7 on DOY 242, 254 and 272. Meanwhile, spatial–temporal mappings of the four drought indices from satellite data were conducted, and the NTDI presented the slightly seasonal variation and effectively described the real spatial characteristics of regional drought. Overall, the NTDI seems to a viable approach and can provide insight into spatial and temporal soil moisture monitoring at different scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

X-band KOMPSAT-5 provides a good perspective for soil moisture retrieval at high-spatial resolution over arid and semi-arid areas. In this paper, an intercomparison of KOMPSAT-5 and C-band Sentinel-1 radar data in soil moisture retrieval was conducted over agricultural fields in Wimmera, Victoria, Australia. Optical images from Sentinel-2 were also used to calculate the scattering contribution of vegetation. This study employed a new semi-empirical vegetation scattering model with a linear association of soil moisture with observed backscatter coefficient and vegetation indices. The Combined Vegetation Index (CVI) was proposed and first used to parameterize vegetation water content. As a result, the vegetation scattering model was developed to monitor soil moisture based on remotely sensed data and ground measurements. Application of the algorithm over dryland wheat field sites demonstrated that the estimated satellite-based soil moisture contents have good linear relationships with the ground measurements. The correlation coefficients (R) are 0.862 and 0.616, and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) have the values of 0.020 cm3/cm3 and 0.032 cm3/cm3 at X- and C-bands, respectively. Furthermore, the validation results also indicated that X-band provided higher consistent accuracy for soil moisture inversion than C-band. These results showed significant promise in retrieving soil moisture using KOMPSAT-5 and Sentinel-1 remotely sensed data at high-spatial resolution over agricultural fields, with subsequent uses for crop growth and yield estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Sobol' method is used to evaluate the sensitivity of APSIM-Wheat yield predictions. • Yield is most sensitive to initial nitrogen amount, soil parameters, precipitation. • Estimated yield is influenced most by the limiting resource under given conditions. • Scenarios for high fertilization level or dry seasons have lower yield variability. The performance of cropping system models is often limited by uncertainties in model parameters and inputs. This study aims to explore how model yield prediction responds to these uncertainties under various environmental and management conditions. The Sobol' method was used to investigate the sensitivity of the Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat yield prediction to the following factors: air temperature (maximum and minimum), precipitation, initial soil nitrogen content, nitrogen fertilization amount, and soil hydraulic parameters. Eighteen scenarios were defined to consider a combination of three weather conditions (wet, normal, and dry growing season, based on the historical climatology of the Wimmera district of Victoria, Australia), three soil types (sandy, loamy, and clayey soils), and two nitrogen fertilization applications (50 and 100 kg N/ha). Eight thousand APSIM simulations were used to calculate the first order and total sensitivity indices for each scenario. The effects of weather, soil water characteristics and nitrogen availability were estimated by measuring their impacts on sensitivity indices. Our results show that yield was more sensitive either to variables that control water availability (precipitation and soil type) or variables that control nitrogen availability, depending on which was more limiting to wheat growth under the scenario. For example, in case of low nitrogen fertilization scenario, the initial nitrogen content sensitivity ranked first. Variation of this factor contributed 64% to 79% to the variance in simulated yield for clayey soils, nearly four times higher than the second-ranked factor (nitrogen fertilization amount). Soil hydraulic parameters and precipitation were most important when the crop growth was more constrained by water availability than by nitrogen availability. In the case of sandy soils in dry years with high nitrogen fertilization level, soil parameters and precipitation accounted for 83% of the yield variability. Minimum temperature consistently ranked as the least important factor under all scenarios. This work will help researchers better understand the model inputs' impacts on the simulated yield variability under various soil, management, and weather conditions. The results also support agronomists and practitioners in the optimal use of the APSIM-Wheat model as a management tool. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our current capacity to model stream water quality is limited – particularly at large spatial scales across multiple catchments. To address this, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model to simulate the spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality across the state of Victoria, Australia. The model was developed using monthly water quality monitoring data over 21 years and across 102 catchments (which span over 130 000 km 2). The modeling focused on six key water quality constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate–nitrite (NOx) and electrical conductivity (EC). The model structure was informed by knowledge of the key factors driving water quality variation, which were identified in two preceding studies using the same dataset. Apart from FRP, which is hardly explained (19.9 %), the model explains 38.2 % (NOx) to 88.6 % (EC) of the total spatiotemporal variability in water quality. Across constituents, the model generally captures over half of the observed spatial variability; the temporal variability remains largely unexplained across all catchments, although long-term trends are well captured. The model is best used to predict proportional changes in water quality on a Box–Cox-transformed scale, but it can have substantial bias if used to predict absolute values for high concentrations. This model can assist catchment management by (1) identifying hot spots and hot moments for waterway pollution; (2) predicting the effects of catchment changes on water quality, e.g., urbanization or forestation; and (3) identifying and explaining major water quality trends and changes. Further model improvements should focus on the following: (1) alternative statistical model structures to improve fitting for truncated data (for constituents where a large amount of data fall below the detection limit); and (2) better representation of nonconservative constituents (e.g., FRP) by accounting for important biogeochemical processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional Land Surface Temperature (LST)–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trapezoid model has been widely used to retrieve vegetation water stress. However, it has two inherent limitations: (1) its complex and computationally intensive parameterization for multi-temporal observations and (2) deficiency in canopy water content information. We tested the hypothesis that an improved water stress index could be constructed by the representation of canopy water content information to the LST–NDVI trapezoid model. Therefore, this study proposes a new index that combines three indicators associated with vegetation water stress: canopy temperature through LST, canopy water content through Surface Water Content Index (SWCI), and canopy fractional cover through NDVI in one temporally transferrable index. Firstly, a new optical space of SWCI–NDVI was conceptualized based on the linear physical relationship between shortwave infrared (SWIR) and soil moisture. Secondly, the SWCI–NDVI feature space was parameterized, and an index d(SWCI, NDVI) was computed based on the distribution of the observations in the SWCI–NDVI spectral space. Finally, standardized LST (LST/long term mean of LST) was combined to d(SWCI, NDVI) to give a new water stress index, Temperature Vegetation Water Stress Index (TVWSI). The modeled soil moisture from the Australian Water Resource Assessment—Landscape (AWRA-L) and Soil Water Fraction (SWF) from four FLUXNET sites across Victoria and New South Wales were used to evaluate TVWSI. The index TVWSI exhibited a high correlation with AWRA-L soil moisture (R2 of 0.71 with p < 0.001) and the ground-based SWF (R2 of 0.25–0.51 with p < 0.001). TVWSI predicted soil moisture more accurately with RMSE of 21.82 mm (AWRA-L) and 0.02–0.04 (SWF) compared to the RMSE ranging 28.98–36.68 mm (AWRA-L) and 0.03–0.05 (SWF) were obtained for some widely used water stress indices. The TVWSI could also be a useful input parameter for other environmental models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]