Search

Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI), The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular p

While many have extolled the potential impacts of digital advisory services for smallholder agriculture, the evidence for sustained uptake of such tools remains limited. This paper utilizes a survey of tool developers and researchers, as well as a systematic meta-analysis of prior studies, to assess the extent and challenges of scaling decision support tools for site-specific soil nutrient management (SSNM-DST) across smallholder farming systems, where “scaling” is defined as a significant increase in tool usage beyond pilot levels. Our evaluation draws on relevant literature, expert opinion and apps available in different repositories. Despite their acclaimed yield benefits, we find that SSNM-DST have struggled to reach scale over the last few decades and, with strong heterogeneity in adoption among intended stakeholders and tools. For example, the log odds of a SSNM-DST reaching 5–10 % of the target farmers compared with reaching none, decreases by ∼200% when a technical problem is stated as a reason for the tools’ failure to be used at scale. We find a similar decrease in odds ratios when technical, socioeconomic, policy, and R&D constraints were identified as barriers to scaling by national extension and private systems. Meta-regression analysis indicates that the response ratio of using SSNM-DST over Farmer Fertilizer Practice (FFP) varies by non-tool related covariates, such as initial crop yield potential under FFP, current and past crop types, acidity class of the soil, temperature and rainfall regimes, and the amount of input under FFP. In general, the SSNM-DST have moved one step forward compared with the traditional ‘blanket’ fertilizer recommendation by accounting for in-field heterogeneities in soil and crop characteristics, while remaining undifferentiated in terms of demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneities among users, which potentially constrains adoption at scale. The SSNM-DSTs possess reasonable applicability and can be labeled ‘ready’ from p

PR, IFPRI3; CRP3.2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, CGIAR Research Program on Maize (MAIZE), The lack of timely, high-resolution data on agricultural production is a major challenge in developing countries where such information can guide the allocation of scarce resources for food security, agricultural investment and other objectives. While much research has suggested that remote sensing can potentially help to address these gaps, few studies have indicated the immediate potential for large-scale estimations over both time and space. In this study we described a machine learning approach to estimate smallholder maize yield in Ethiopia, using well-measured and broadly distributed ground truth data and freely available spatiotemporal covariates from remote sensing. A neural networks model outperforms other algorithms in our study. Importantly, our work indicates that a model developed and calibrated on a previous year’s data can be used to reasonably estimate maize yield in the subsequent year. Our study suggests the feasibility of developing national programs for the routine generation of broad-scale, high-resolution estimates of smallholder maize yield, including seasonal forecasts, on the basis of machine learning algorithms and well-measured ground control data and currently existing time series satellite data.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; IFPRIOA, Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS); Transformation Strategies, Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

PR, IFPRI3; IFPRIOA; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; ISI; Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC), Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy, Despite enthusiasm for the potential of digital innovations to transform agricultural markets in Africa, progress made thus far has been limited to small-scale experiments that often fail to scale up. Realizing the full potential of digital innovations – tools, technologies, applications, and services – in Africa requires not just further development of these solutions at meaningful scales, but also more nuanced evidence from both successful and unsuccessful scaling efforts. This paper reviews the conceptual and empirical evidence on the transformative potential of digital innovations for African agricultural markets with an in-depth examination of solutions that have been rolled out to date in the continent. Specifically, the review addresses the following questions: (i) how can digital innovations improve the functioning of agricultural markets in Africa? (ii) what explains the apparent disconnect of most pilots to scale-ups? (iii) what is required to realize their full potential? and (iv) what are the emerging risks and opportunities associated with digital innovations for agricultural marketing? Although our review of the landscape and literature on market-focused digital innovations in Africa identifies several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation. In particular, there is a need for more systematic assessments of both successes and failures at both the piloting and scaling stages.

Non-PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies

PR, 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; IFPRI3; DCA; ISI, Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy, Acid soils are a major constraint to agricultural productivity in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Restoring soil pH to optimal ranges for agriculture can have a significant impact on yields, particularly for acid intolerant crops like wheat and barley. The application of agricultural lime is the standard corrective, although the large application requirements, lack of farmer awareness, and weak or non-existent lime supply chains make this a complex problem to address at scale. To date, no large-scale farmer trials of lime application have been undertaken in Ethiopia. This leaves open the question to local policy makers as to the economic benefits given the enormous capital and logistics investments required. To help address this we leverage existing spatial edaphic data and longitudinal crop surveys to simulate the productivity impact of varying lime and fertilizer applications. Our estimates find the impact of moving pH from 5.5 to 6.5, modeled as a lime soil remediation strategy, increases yields by 22% and 19% for wheat and barley, respectively. In addition, at lower pH levels our models indicate that commonly used nitrogen-based fertilizers are less cost-effective. For wheat in highly acidic soils, we find that fertilizers cost over two times as much as a single application of lime over a five-year period. The cost savings of the use of lime reaches as high as 121% of average one-year agricultural household income for wheat; with barley these savings are lower but still substantial at 24%. In general, we advocate for an integrated soil fertility management strategy that applies appropriate levels of fertilizer on pH balanced soil. If successful, Ethiopia’s acid soil reclamation could become a modest version of Brazil’s successful “cerrado miracle” and serve as an example for Africa.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, DSGD, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), We combine nationally representative data from Nigeria with spatiotemporal data from remote sensing and other sources to study how young migrants respond to observable characteristics of potential destinations, both in absolute terms and relative to origin locations. Migrants prefer destinations with better welfare, land availability and intensity of economic activity. We also find that migrants prefer shorter distances and those destinations with better urban amenities and infrastructure. However, responses vary by type of migrant and migration. For example, rural-rural migrants are more responsive to land availability and agricultural potential, while rural-urban and urban-urban migrants are more responsive to welfare and economic vibrancy (measured by nightlight intensity) in destinations. Distance induces varying impact on migration choices of poor and non-poor migrants as well as across more educated and less educated migrants. Longer distances discourage migration for female migrants, poorer migrants and less educated migrant while the implication for the non-poor and more educated migrants appears to be negligible. This is intuitive because poorer and less educated migrants have liquidity constraints to finance high migration costs. Our results suggest potential scope for predicting how labor mobility responds to alternative regional development policies.

PR, 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; ISI; CRP2; IFPRIOA; IFPRI3, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Improving household resilience is becoming one of the key focus and target of social protection programs in Africa. However, there is surprisingly little direct evidence of the impacts of social protection programs on household resilience measures. We use five rounds of panel data to examine rural households’ resilience outcomes associated with participation in Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP). Following Cissé and Barrett (2018), we employ a probabilistic moment-based approach for measuring resilience and evaluate the role of PSNP transfers and duration of participation on households’ resilience. We document four important findings. First, although PSNP transfers are positively associated with resilience, PSNP transfers below the median are less likely to generate meaningful improvements in resilience. Second, continuous participation in the PSNP is associated with higher resilience. Third, combining safety nets with income generating or asset building initiatives may be particularly efficacious at building poor households’ resilience. Fourth, our evaluation of both short-term welfare (consumption) and longer-term outcomes (resilience) suggests that these outcomes are likely to be driven by different factors, suggesting that optimizing intervention designs for improving short term welfare impacts may not necessarily improve households’ resilience, and vice versa. Together, our findings imply that effectively boosting household resilience may require significant transfers over multiple years. National safety nets programs that transfer small amounts to beneficiaries over limited time horizons may not be very effective.

PR, IFPRI3; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD, Civil conflict began in Ethiopia in November 2020 and has reportedly caused major disrup tions in access to health services, food, and related critical services, in addition to the direct impacts of the conflict on health and well-being. However, the population-level impacts of the conflict have not yet been systematically quantified. We analyze high frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank, which included measures of access to basic ser vices, to estimate the impact of the first phase of the war (November 2020 to May 2021) on households in Tigray. After controlling for sample selection, a difference-in-differences approach is used to estimate causal effects of the conflict on population access to health services, food, and water and sanitation. Inverse probability weighting is used to adjust for sample attrition. The conflict has increased the share of respondents who report that they were unable to access needed health services by 35 percentage points (95% CI: 14–55 pp) and medicine by 8 pp (95% CI:2–15 pp). It has also increased the share of households unable to purchase staple foods by 26 pp (95% CI:7–45 pp). The share of households unable to access water did not increase, although the percentage able to purchase soap declined by 17 pp (95% CI: 1–32 pp). We document significant heterogeneity across popula tion groups, with disproportionate effects on the poor, on rural populations, on households with undernourished children, and those living in communities without health facilities. These significant disruptions in access to basic services likely underestimate the true bur den of conflict in the affected population, given that the conflict has continued beyond the survey period, and that worse-affected households may have higher rates of non-response. Documented spatial and household-level heterogeneity in the impact of the conflict may help guide rapid post-conflict responses.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; EgyptSSP; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; MTID, This policy note synthesizes the key messages and lessons from existing evidence and trends in the development, deployment and scale up of ICT-enabled marketing tools. It is based on the recently published discussion paper titled “Digital tools and agricultural market transformation in Africa: Why are they not at scale yet, and what will it take to get there”. Key messages • Many digital innovations have been developed and deployed in recent years in Africa, many of which have only been implemented at pilot stages, with limited evidence of successful scaling. • There remains significant marketing and institutional constraints hindering the development of some of these digital innovations, which may further explain disparate progress in countries. • Differential access to digital innovations across genders and different typologies of households may trigger alternative variants of digital divide. • Although the landscape of digital innovations in Africa offers several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; CRP2, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD, Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; ESSP; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)