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The effectiveness of various adaptation options is dependent on the capacity to plan, design and implement them. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity is, therefore, crucial for effective responses to climate change. This paper offers an assessment of adaptive capacity across a range of sectors in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper has four parts, including (1) an overview of adaptive capacity, in particular as a learning process; (2) a description of the various methods used to determine adaptive capacity; (3) a synthesis of the determinants of adaptive capacity; and (4) the identification of mechanisms to build adaptive capacity in the region. We conclude that the major issue impacting adaptive capacity is not the availability of physical resources but the dominant social, political and institutional culture of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pride in Australia's extreme climate has long been a part of Australia's national identity. Today, climate continues to be enrolled in a range of nationalistic projects, including the (re)development of climate science and other responses to climate change. In this paper, we outline some of the contours of the 'Australian national climate', claims to know it, and four idealised responses to it: bounce back, dismissal, endurance, and migration. We argue that the deeply cultural framing of climate in Australia-in particular, Australians' emphasis on the climate's inherent variability and unknowability, and their own historical adaptability-is being exploited by the federal government and hampering climate change mitigation nationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High‐resolution climate change projections are increasingly necessary to inform climate policy and adaptation planning. Downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) is required to simulate the climate at the spatial scale relevant for local impacts. Here, we dynamically downscaled 15 CMIP6 GCMs to a 10 km resolution over Australia using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM), creating the largest ensemble of high‐resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections for Australia. We compared the host CMIP6 models and downscaled simulations to the Australian Gridded Climate Data (AGCD) observational data and evaluated performance using the Kling‐Gupta efficiency and Perkins skill score. Downscaling improved performance over host GCMs for seasonal temperature and precipitation (10% and 43% respectively), and for annual cycles of temperature and precipitation (6% and 13% respectively). Downscaling also improved the fraction of dry days, reducing the bias for too many low‐rain days. The largest improvements were found in climate extremes, with enhancements to extreme minimum temperatures in all seasons varying from 142% to 201%, and to extreme precipitation of 52% in Austral winter and 47% in summer. The ensemble average integrated skill score improved by 16%. Temperature and precipitation biases were reduced in mountainous and coastal areas. CCAM downscaling outperformed host CMIP6 GCMs at multiple spatial scales and regions—continental Australia, Australian IPCC regions and Queensland's regions—with integrated added value ranging from 9% to 150% and higher over densely populated regions more exposed to climate impacts. This data set will be a valuable resource for understanding future climate changes in Australia. Plain Language Summary: High‐resolution climate models are used for producing climate change projections for assessing regional and local climate change impacts and for adaptation and policy formulation. We completed 15 high‐resolution climate simulations using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model at a 10 km spatial resolution over the Australian continent and surrounds based on global climate models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6. We evaluated the new high‐resolution data set by comparing it to observations and to their host global model across several regions within Australia. The high‐resolution simulations improved the representation of topography, seasonal temperature and annual cycles of temperature, precipitation, as well as the number of dry days, extreme precipitation and extreme minimum temperatures. The high‐resolution projections show improvement compared to GCMs consistently across spatial scales and regions, being particularly high (150%) over urban areas with high exposure to impacts. This new 10 km data set is the highest resolution, and largest ensemble of the latest climate projections for the Australian continent and surrounds and will be a valuable tool for evaluating future climate change impacts. Key Points: We dynamically downscaled 15 CMIP6 global climate model simulations over Australia to a 10 km spatial resolution using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric modelTwo new assessment metrics are proposed to assess model performance and added value of downscalingThe integrated added value of downscaling can be as high as 150% over highly populated areas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic changes, since the beginning of the 20th century, in average and extreme Australian rainfall and temperatures indicate that Southern Australian climate has undergone regime transitions into a drier and warmer state. South-west Western Australia (SWWA) experienced the most dramatic drying trend with average streamflow into Perth dams, in the last decade, just 20% of that before the 1960s and extreme, decile 10, rainfall reduced to near zero. In south-eastern Australia (SEA) systematic decreases in average and extreme cool season rainfall became evident in the late 1990s with a halving of the area experiencing average decile 10 rainfall in the early 21st century compared with that for the 20th century. The shift in annual surface temperatures over SWWA and SEA, and indeed for Australia as a whole, has occurred primarily over the last 20 years with the percentage area experiencing extreme maximum temperatures in decile 10 increasing to an average of more than 45% since the start of the 21st century compared with less than 3% for the 20th century mean. Average maximum temperatures have also increased by circa 1 °C for SWWA and SEA over the last 20 years. The climate changes in rainfall an d temperatures are associated with atmospheric circulation shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are gaps in the existing climate change adaptation literature concerning the design of spatial planning instruments and the relationship between policy instruments and the sociopolitical barriers to adaptation reform. To help address this gap, this article presents a typology of spatial planning instruments for adaptation and analyses the pattern of instrument choice in Australian planning processes in order to shed light on contextual factors that can impede adaptation. The analysis highlights how policy design can amplify the barriers to adaptation by arranging policy actors in ways inimical to reform and stripping decision makers of the instruments necessary to make and sustain desired policy changes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Australia has been exposed to a vast array of extreme weather regimes over the past few years, and the frequency and intensity of these events are expected to increase as a result of anthropogenic climate change. However, the predictability of extreme droughts, heat waves (HWs), bushfires and floods, is still hampered by our inability to fully understand how these weather systems interact with each other and with the climate system. This study brings new insight into the regional and large scale dynamics of some extreme events in Australia, by describing and comparing the climate signature of summer HWs and extreme rainfall events which have occurred in the states of Victoria and Queensland respectively, during 1979-2013. Our analyses highlight the importance of mid-latitude dynamics operating during HWs, in contrast with more tropical interactions at play during extreme rainfall events. A 'common' blocking high pressure system is observed over the Tasman Sea during the two types of extreme events, and may explain why some southeastern HWs (only about 25 %) occur in close succession with floods in Queensland. However, our results suggest that there is no dynamical link between these two types of events, since the HW-related anticyclone evolves as part of a baroclinic wave train, whereas in the case of rainfall events, this structure emerges as an equivalent barotropic response to tropical convection. Sub-regional surface temperatures and air-sea fluxes also suggest that distinct processes may be operating in the lead up to these two events. Indeed, HWs tend to occur when the wave train propagates from the south Indian to the Pacific Ocean, inducing a quasi-stationary blocking high system over the Tasman Sea. This anticyclonic anomaly can then advect hot dry air towards the southern Victorian coast, where it produces HW conditions. On the other hand, extreme rainfall events mostly occur when the background conditions correspond to a La Niña state. The convection induced in the western Pacific can trigger a tropical-extratropical teleconnection over Queensland. This may generate an anticyclonic anomaly over the Tasman Sea, able to divert air parcels over a warm and humid area where conditions are, this time, favorable for more extreme rainfall along the Queensland coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has an extensive coastline extending over 60,000 km through diverse tropical and temperate environments. Indigenous archaeological sites are found along this coastline from the time of earliest settlement at least 50,000 years ago. However, Pleistocene sites are rare owing largely to the destructive impacts of sea-level change associated with the end of the last ice age around 10,000 years ago. After this sites are more numerous but there is variability around the coastline due to the impact of a range of both natural and human factors. Here we focus on six key issues impacting on the development and conservation of coastal archaeological deposits: sea-levels, climate change, cyclones, storms, tsunamis and contemporary human impacts. A number of examples of these impacts are discussed from across Australia. Managing and monitoring of sites has been limited in Australia and geoindicators are discussed as a means of developing a long-term measurement of continuing impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]