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This rapid systematic review aims to examine emerging evidence on the effects of COVID-19 on educational institutions and assess the prevalence of e-learning changes in the sector. This paper reviews literature on learning, teaching, and assessment approaches adopted since the COVID-19 outbreak, and assesses the impact on the sector, staff, and students, summarizing findings from peer-reviewed articles. It categorizes these into five key themes: (1) digital learning; (2) e-learning challenges; (3) digital transition to emergency virtual assessment (EVA); (4) psychological impact of COVID-19; and (5) creating collaborative cultures. This represents the first systematic review of COVID-19's impact on education, clarifying current themes being investigated. The author suggests that the term 'emergency virtual assessment' (EVA) is now added for future research discussion. Finally, the paper identifies research gaps, including researching the impact on lesser developed countries, the psychological impact of transition, and the important role of leadership and leadership styles during the transition and handling of the pandemic.

Objective: This review summarizes evidence pertaining to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological health of children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Materials and Methods: An electronic search was conducted using four major databases--PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Using an umbrella methodology, the reference lists of relevant papers were reviewed, and citation searches were conducted. The study included articles written in English between January 2020 and March 2021 that focused on the psychological health of autistic children and adolescents. Results: All eight studies included in the final review were cross-sectional. Three of the eight studies were conducted in Italy, two in Turkey, and one study each in Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom, with a total of 1,407 participants. All studies used a mixture of standardized and non-standardized questionnaires to collect data. The total number of patients were 1407 at a mean age of 9.53 (SD = 2.96) years. Seven studies report gender; male 74.7% (657/880) and female 25.3% (223/880). The finding showed that behavioral issues in children and adolescents with ASD have significantly increased; 521 (51.9 percent) of the 1004 individuals with ASD presented with behavioral changes, including conduct problems, emotional problems, aggression, and hyperactivity. Some studies also found increased anxiety and difficulties managing emotions. Only one study reported clinical stabilization in children with ASD during COVID-19. Finally, 82.7% of families and caregivers of children with ASD (544 out of 658) faced challenges during COVID-19. Conclusion: Although the studies in this review suggest a general worsening of ASD children's clinical status, it remains difficult to draw definitive conclusions at this moment, with newer COVID-19 variants on the rise worldwide. During this difficult pandemic period, caregivers, families, and healthcare professionals are recommended to pay more attention to the ASD patients' health and care needs.

This paper presents a compilation of personal reflections from 66 contributors on the impact of, and responses to, COVID-19 in accounting education in 45 different countries around the world. It reveals a commonality of issues, and a variability in responses, many positive outcomes, including the creation of opportunities to realign learning and teaching strategies away from the comfort of traditional formats, but many more that are negative, primarily relating to the impact on faculty and student health and well-being, and the accompanying stress. It identifies issues that need to be addressed in the recovery and redesign stages of the management of this crisis, and it sets a new research agenda for studies in accounting education.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected education at all levels in various ways. This paper provides a review of the literature on the challenges of online learning for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Method: In total, 17 studies from nine countries were analysed. The challenges of online learning for children with SEND reported by teachers and parents and the strategies applied to overcome the challenges were identified. Results: The challenges of online learning were the need of parental support, routine change, inequities of resources and access to technology, lack of accommodations, and social isolation. There was a considerable lack of interventions aimed at promoting the educational outcomes of children with SEND. Conclusions: The findings emphasise the importance of parent-teacher collaboration and communication. Suggestions for strategies to address challenges as well as for further research are also discussed.

Taste dysfunction (TD) has been recognised, together with olfactory dysfunction, as a key presenting symptom of COVID-19. The capability to recognise flavours, flavour intensities and aroma characteristics can be highly variable within the same population, as well as potentially diverse between culturally different populations. The aims of this study are to evaluate whether a difference in the types of TD presentation amongst COVID-19 positive subjects can be demonstrated and whether a difference exists between populations of different cultures.

The school nurse has a crucial role in the United States and the United Kingdom and has their own expertise dedicated to school assistance for children, families, school staff, and the community. This study aims to identify the role and skills of the school nurse and understand the effects of COVID-19 on nursing skills in the following countries: The United States, the United Kingdom, and Italy. A Scoping Review was conducted following the JBI methodology for scoping reviews, following the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Three databases were consulted: PubMed, Cinahl, and Scopus. In all, 58 studies met the eligibility criteria and were included. 93.1% of the studies were carried out in the United States, 5.2% in the United Kingdom, and 1.7% in Italy. 34.5% of the articles were published in 2020, 15.5% in 2021, 31% in 2022, and 19% in 2023. 22.4% of the studies included in the review concerned health promotion and education. Regarding the methodology of the studies, 41.5% of the studies were commentary papers, 15.5% were observational studies, and 12% were cross-sectional studies. Considering the effects of the school nurse in the United States and the United Kingdom, it is possible to reflect on how the systematic presence of a nurse could also have benefits in Italy., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Acknowledging the extreme risk COVID-19 poses to humans, this paper attempted to analyze and compare case fatality rates, identify the existence of learning curves for COVID-19 medical treatments, and examine the impact of vaccination on fatality rate reduction. Confirmed cases and deaths were extracted from the "Daily Situation Report" provided by the World Health Organization. The results showed that low registration and low viral test rates resulted in low fatality rates, and the learning curve was significant for all countries except China. Treatment for COVID-19 can be improved through repeated experience. Vaccinations in the U.K. and U.S.A. are highly effective in reducing fatality rates, but not in other countries. The positive impact of vaccines may be attributed to higher vaccination rates. In addition to China, this study identified the existence of learning curves for the medical treatment of COVID-19 that can explain the effect of vaccination rates on fatalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The dissemination of scientific data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continually builds but, in April 2020, could not keep up with the spread of the disease. Through technology, surgeons in Italy and the UK, representing both peak and pre-peak infective time zones, were able to communicate so that the urgent lessons on the huge expected demands of care learned in Italy could be brought to the UK in advance. This paper specifically discusses the issues related to paediatric surgery, currently under-reported in the literature. Methods The aim of this paper is to conjoin experience from the field to provide a framework for a safe assessment and treatment of paediatric patients by adopting a systemic approach aimed at reducing the risk of contamination. We reviewed the processes and good practices that were undertaken in contexts of emergency such as in Italy and the UK and then adapted them within the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) framework to provide an assessment of how to reorganize the services in order to cope with an unexpected situation. The SEIPS model is the adopted theoretical framework, which allows to analyse the system in its main components with a human factors and ergonomics (HFE) perspective. Results The results introduce some of the good practices and recommendations developed during the emergency in the surgical scenario with a focus on the paediatric patients. They represent the lessons learned from the combination of the little existing evidence of literature and the experience from surgical teams who responded in an impromptu and unrehearsed way. Conclusions Lessons learned from the frontline 'on the fly' during COVID-19 emergency should be consolidated and taken into the future. In order to prepare proactively for the next phases and get ahead of the curve of these hospital accesses, there is a need for a risk assessment of the new clinical pathways with a multidisciplinary approach centred on HFE with the adoption of the SEIPS model and an involvement of all the surgical teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by a social media "infodemic": an overabundance of information whose authenticity may not always be guaranteed. With the potential to lead individuals to harmful decisions for the society, this infodemic represents a severe threat to information security, public health and democracy. In this paper, we assess the interplay between the infodemic and specific aspects of the pandemic, such as the number of cases, the strictness of containment measures, and the news media coverage. We perform a comparative study on three countries that employed different managements of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020—namely Italy, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand. We first analyze the three countries from an epidemiological perspective to characterize the impact of the pandemic and the strictness of the restrictions adopted. Then, we collect a total of 6 million posts from Facebook to describe user news consumption behaviors with respect to the reliability of such posts. Finally, we quantify the relationship between the number of posts published in each of the three countries and the number of confirmed cases, the strictness of the restrictions adopted, and the online news media coverage about the pandemic. Our results show that posts referring to reliable sources are consistently predominant in the news circulation, and that users engage more with reliable posts rather than with posts referring to questionable sources. Furthermore, our modelling results suggest that factors related to the epidemiological and informational ecosystems can serve as proxies to assess the evolution of the infodemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notable cross-country differences exist in the diffusion of the Covid-19 and in its lethality. Contact patterns in populations, and in particular intergenerational contacts, have been argued to be responsible for the most vulnerable, the elderly, getting infected more often and thus driving up mortality in some context, like in the southern European one. This paper asks a simple question: is it between whom contacts occur that matters or is it simply how many contacts people have? Due to the high number of confounding factors, it is extremely difficult to empirically assess the impact of single network features separately. This is why we rely on a simulation exercise in which we counterfactually manipulate single aspects of countries' age distribution and network structures. We disentangle the contributions of the kind and of the number of contacts while holding constant the age structure. More precisely, we isolate the respective effects of inter-age contact patterns, degree distribution and clustering on the virus propagation across age groups. We use survey data on face-to-face contacts for Great Britain, Italy, and Germany, to reconstruct networks that mirror empirical contact patterns in these three countries. It turns out that the number of social contacts (degree distribution) largely accounts for the higher infection rates of the elderly in the Italian context, while differences in inter-age contacts patterns are only responsible for minor differences. This suggests that policies specifically targeting inter-age contacts would be little effective., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper studies the interplay between social distancing and the spread of the COVID-19 disease-a global pandemic that has affected most of the world's population. Our goals are to (1) to observe the correlation between the strictness of social distancing policies and the spread of disease and (2) to determine the optimal adoption level of social distancing policies. The earliest instances of the virus were found in China, and the virus has reached the United States with devastating consequences. Other countries severely affected by the pandemic are Brazil, Russia, the United Kingdom, Spain, India, Italy, and France. Although it is impossible to stop it, it is possible to slow down its spread to reduce its impact on the society and economy. Governments around the world have deployed various policies to reduce the virus spread in response to the pandemic. To assess the effectiveness of these policies, the system's dynamics of the society needs to be analyzed, which is generally not possible with mathematical linear equations or Monte Carlo methods because human society is a complex adaptive system with continuous feedback loops. Because of the challenges with the other methods, we chose agent-based methods to conduct our study. Moreover, recent agent-based modeling studies for the COVID-19 pandemic show significant promise in assisting decision-makers in managing the crisis by applying policies such as social distancing, disease testing, contact tracing, home isolation, emergency hospitalization, and travel prevention to reduce infection rates. Based on modeling studies conducted in Imperial College, increasing levels of interventions could slow the spread of disease and infection. We ran the model with six different percentages of social distancing while keeping the other parameters constant. The results show that social distancing affects the spread of COVID-19 significantly, in turn decreasing the spread of disease and infection rates when implemented at higher levels. We also validated these results by using the behavior space tool with ten experiments with varying social distancing levels. We conclude that applying and increasing social distancing policy levels leads to a significant reduction in infection spread and the number of deaths. Both experiments show that infection rates are reduced drastically when social distancing intervention is implemented between 80% to 100%.

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, a large number of COVID-19-related papers have been published. However, concerns about the risk of expedited science have been raised. We aimed at reviewing and categorizing COVID-19-related medical research and to critically appraise peer-reviewed original articles., Methods: The data sources were Pubmed, Cochrane COVID-19 register study, arXiv, medRxiv and bioRxiv, from 01/11/2019 to 01/05/2020. Peer-reviewed and preprints publications related to COVID-19 were included, written in English or Chinese. No limitations were placed on study design. Reviewers screened and categorized studies according to i) publication type, ii) country of publication, and iii) topics covered. Original articles were critically appraised using validated quality assessment tools., Results: Among the 11,452 publications identified, 10,516 met the inclusion criteria, among which 7468 (71.0%) were peer-reviewed articles. Among these, 4190 publications (56.1%) did not include any data or analytics (comprising expert opinion pieces). Overall, the most represented topics were infectious disease (n = 2326, 22.1%), epidemiology (n = 1802, 17.1%), and global health (n = 1602, 15.2%). The top five publishing countries were China (25.8%), United States (22.3%), United Kingdom (8.8%), Italy (8.1%) and India (3.4%). The dynamic of publication showed that the exponential growth of COVID-19 peer-reviewed articles was mainly driven by publications without original data (mean 261.5 articles ± 51.1 per week) as compared with original articles (mean of 69.3 ± 22.3 articles per week). Original articles including patient data accounted for 713 (9.5%) of peer-reviewed studies. A total of 576 original articles (80.8%) showed intermediate to high risk of bias. Last, except for simulation studies that mainly used large-scale open data, the median number of patients enrolled was of 102 (IQR = 37-337)., Conclusions: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of research is composed by publications without original data. Peer-reviewed original articles with data showed a high risk of bias and included a limited number of patients. Together, these findings underscore the urgent need to strike a balance between the velocity and quality of research, and to cautiously consider medical information and clinical applicability in a pressing, pandemic context. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/5zjyx/.

Evidence is accumulating of the negative impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic and related public health measures on mental health. In this emergent field, there has been little research into the role of risk perception on depressive symptoms and the contribution of health‐care resources to model risk perception and mental health. The aim of this paper is to describe the relationship between individual‐level perception of risk and depression, controlling for a set of confounders and for country‐level heterogeneity. A cross‐sectional and observational online survey was conducted using a non‐probability snowball sampling technique. We use data on 11,340 respondents, living in six European countries (Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, France, Poland, Czech Republic) who completed survey questionnaires during the first months of the pandemic. We used a fixed‐effect approach, which included individual and macro‐level variables. The findings suggest that a high proportion of people suffering from depression and heightened risk perception is positively associated with reporting depressive symptoms, even if this relationship varies significantly between countries. Moreover, the association is moderated by contextual factors including health‐care expenditure as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, hospital beds for acute care, and number of medical specialists per head of population. Investment in health care offers a concrete means of protecting the mental health of a population living under pandemic restrictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the health care systems in Europe are considered the global benchmark, European nations were severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This manuscript aimed to examine the strategies implemented to combat the COVID-19 pandemic by France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, and Russia and their outcomes in terms of the number of cases, testing, and deaths. This is the first review of its kind that extensively analyzes the preparedness, mitigation, and response strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic adopted by these nations. This paper further suggests a strategic preparedness model for future pandemics. From the analysis, we found that a decentralized approach, prompt decision-making and timely execution, coordination between local health authorities, and public participation in the implementation of strategies could substantially reduce the case fatality rate. Nations with a high percentage of gross domestic product invested in the health sector, as well as more nurses, physicians, hospital beds, intensive care unit beds, and ventilators, better managed the pandemic. Instead, nations that postponed their pandemic response by delaying tracking, tracing, testing, quarantine, and lockdown were badly affected. The lessons learned from the present pandemic could be used as a guide to prepare for further pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actionable insights. In this study, performed a few (~6) weeks into the outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2), one of the most important disease parameters, the average time-to-recovery, was calculated using data publicly available on the internet (daily reported cases of confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries), and fed into an algorithm that matches confirmed cases with deaths and recoveries. Unmatched cases were adjusted based on the matched cases calculation. The mean time-to-recovery, calculated from all globally reported cases, was found to be 18.01 days (SD 3.31 days) for the matched cases and 18.29 days (SD 2.73 days) taking into consideration the adjusted unmatched cases as well. The proposed method used limited data and provided experimental results in the same region as clinical studies published several months later. This indicates that the proposed method, combined with expert knowledge and informed calculated assumptions, could provide a meaningful calculated average time-to-recovery figure, which can be used as an evidence-based estimation to support containment and mitigation policy decisions, even at the very early stages of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study goal to scrutinize the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in five selected European economies. To this end, the study uses a Fourier causality test for the period of December-2019 to December-2020. In Z-test results, Germany, Spain, and the UK have a significant positive change in unemployment due to COVID-19. The finding shows that COVID-19 cases cause unemployment for Germany, Italy, and the UK. Moreover, in terms of deaths, COVID-19 also causes unemployment in Italy and UK. Overall, the study's outcomes highlight that the pandemic increases the unemployment rate robustly in the mostly European economies. That is one of the rare negative effects of the virus on the European labor market. Novel COVID-19 findings provide a reliable guide to the future policy implication for the labor market. An active labor market policy will be needed to be in front of the world urgently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the present study was to examine parental experiences of homeschooling during the COVID-19 pandemic in families with or without a child with a mental health condition across Europe. The study included 6720 parents recruited through schools, patient organizations and social media platforms (2002 parents with a child with a mental health condition and 4718 without) from seven European countries: the UK (n = 508), Sweden (n = 1436), Spain (n = 1491), Belgium (n = 508), the Netherlands (n = 324), Germany (n = 1662) and Italy (n = 794). Many parents reported negative effects of homeschooling for themselves and their child, and many found homeschooling to be of poor quality, with insufficient support from schools. In most countries, contact with teachers was limited, leaving parents with primary responsibility for managing homeschooling. Parents also reported increased levels of stress, worry, social isolation, and domestic conflict. A small number of parents reported increased parental alcohol/drug use. Some differences were found between countries and some negative experiences were more common in families with a child with a mental health condition. However, differences between countries and between families with and without a mental health condition were generally small, indicating that many parents across countries reported negative experiences. Some parents also reported positive experiences of homeschooling. The adverse effects of homeschooling will likely have a long-term impact and contribute to increased inequalities. Given that school closures may be less effective than other interventions, policymakers need to carefully consider the negative consequences of homeschooling during additional waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, MetabERN has been monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 infection rates within its metabolic community. To gather data on the total number of cases and the severity of symptoms among IMD patients one year into the pandemic, an online survey was distributed among all MetabERN healthcare providers (HCP). Epidemiological analysis was performed by integrating the survey's data with the MetabERN database.Results: Survey's respondents reported a total of 452 cases of COVID-19 among their IMD patients (213 paediatric and 239 adults). Considering the total number of patients followed by the respondents (n = 26,347), the registered prevalence of COVID-19 in the IMD population was of 1716 × 100,000. Italy emerged as the most affected country (25.4% of cases), followed by the United Kingdom (14.2% of cases). Most of the paediatric cases of COVID-19 displayed no or mild symptoms during the disease: 34% of HCP reported having asymptomatic patients in 75-100% of cases, while 37.5% reported mild symptoms in about a quarter of their patients. Similarly to paediatric cases, most adult IMD patients with COVID-19 were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms: about one third of respondents reported 75-100% asymptomatic patients and about 65% of HCP had between 0 and 50% of patients with mild symptoms. The majority of the respondents reported no deaths due to COVID-19 in adult and paediatric patients with IMDs.Conclusions: Most of MetabERN's IMD patients who got COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic had mild symptoms and a positive outcome of the disease. However, fatal events were recorded in paediatric patients; this, together with the lack of information on the long-term effects of COVID-19 in IMDs, call for caution in the metabolic population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID‐19 spread throughout the world during 2020, bringing an increase in global financial risk. We use connectedness network to investigate the risk contagion among global stock markets during the COVID‐19 pandemic and analyse its source. Furthermore, we use spectrum analysis to explore the risk contagion effects on different frequency bands, which allows us to explore its speed and channels. We find that the United Kingdom and Italy are core transmitters of risks, and connectedness is mainly driven by low‐frequency components, which demonstrates that the risks are spread by affecting supply chains in global markets and investors' long‐term expectations for the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we examine the expectations of the economic outlook, fear of the future, and behavioural change during the first Covid-19 wave, for three European countries (Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy) that have been severely hit. We use a novel dataset that we collected to monitor the three countries during the crisis. As outcome variables, we used expectations (e.g., economic outlook, labour market situation, recovery), fear (e.g., scenario of new outburst, economic depression, restriction to individual rights and freedom), and behavioural change across the following dimensions: savings, cultural consumption, social capital, and risky behaviour. We provide descriptive evidence that is representative of the population of interest, and we estimate the impact of exposure to shock occurred during the crisis on the same outcome variables, using matching techniques. Our main findings are the following: we detected systematically negative expectations regarding the future and the recovery, majoritarian fears of an economic depression, a new outbreak, and a permanent restriction on freedom, a reduction in saving and in social capital. Exposure to shocks decreased expected job prospects, increased withdrawal from accumulated savings, and reduced contacts with the network relevant to job advancement, whereas it had inconclusive effects over fears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study compares the mechanisms through which employers in England, Wales and Italy may be legally entitled to unilaterally vary the terms of their employment contracts due to the coronavirus pandemic and developing a taxonomy, through which a meaningful side-by-side comparison of these very different jurisdictions can be constructed. To attain the core purpose of this research, the study relied on the comparative legal research method. Despite the fundamental differences between the employment law regimes of the three countries; the mechanisms through which employers from these jurisdictions can vary the terms of their employment relationships in response to COVID-19 fall into one of these categories, force majeure mechanisms; flexibility mechanisms; hardship mechanisms or mechanisms facilitating bilateral variations tantamount to unilateral variations. The study concluded that there are fundamental differences between the employment law regimes that operate respectively in England and Wales and in Italy. England and Wales is a common law jurisdiction, whereas Italy is a civil law jurisdiction; Italy's labour market is significantly more tightly regulated than England's; in England and Wales, the employment contract regulates the employment relationship, whereas in Italy the individual employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-19, is a disease outbreak that was first identified in Wuhan, a Central Chinese city. In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions. Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries. Since the performance of the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR depends on parameter settings, some optimization algorithms, namely Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), conjugate gradients (CG), limited memory bound constrained BFGS (L-BFGS-B), and Nelder–Mead, are proposed to optimize the parameters and the predictive capabilities of the SIR and SEIQR models. The results of the optimized SIR and SEIQR models were compared with those of two well-known machine learning algorithms, i.e., the Prophet algorithm and logistic function. The results demonstrate the different behaviors of these algorithms in different countries as well as the better performance of the improved SIR and SEIQR models. Moreover, the Prophet algorithm was found to provide better prediction performance than the logistic function, as well as better prediction performance for Italy and UK cases than for Australian cases. Therefore, it seems that the Prophet algorithm is suitable for data with an increasing trend in the context of a pandemic. Optimization of SIR and SEIQR model parameters yielded a significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the models. Despite the availability of several algorithms for trend predictions in this pandemic, there is no single algorithm that would be optimal for all cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many different countries have been under lockdown or extreme social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19. The potentially far-reaching side effects of these measures have not yet been fully understood. In this study we analyse the results of a multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N = 3,504), Spain (N = 3,524) and the United Kingdom (N = 3,523), with two separate analyses. In the first analysis, we examine the elicitation of citizens' concerns over the downplaying of the economic consequences of the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. We control for Social Desirability Bias through a list experiment included in the survey. In the second analysis, we examine the data from the same survey to predict the level of stress, anxiety and depression associated with being economically vulnerable and having been affected by a negative economic shock. To accomplish this, we have used a prediction algorithm based on machine learning techniques. To quantify the size of this affected population, we compare its magnitude with the number of people affected by COVID-19 using measures of susceptibility, vulnerability and behavioural change collected in the same questionnaire. We find that the concern for the economy and for "the way out" of the lockdown is diffuse and there is evidence of minor underreporting. Additionally, we estimate that around 42.8% of the populations in the three countries are at high risk of stress, anxiety, and depression, based on their level of economic vulnerability and their exposure to a negative economic shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation which incorporates new data in real-time through variational data assimilation. We analyze and discuss infection rates in the UK, US and Italy. We furthermore develop a custom compartmental SIR model fit to variables related to the available data of the pandemic, named SITR model, which allows for more granular inference on infection numbers. We compare and discuss model results which conducts updates as new observations become available. A hybrid data assimilation approach is applied to make results robust to initial conditions and measurement errors in the data. We use the model to conduct inference on infection numbers as well as parameters such as the disease transmissibility rate or the rate of recovery. The parameterisation of the model is parsimonious and extendable, allowing for the incorporation of additional data and parameters of interest. This allows for scalability and the extension of the model to other locations or the adaption of novel data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major stressor for the psychological health of people worldwide. In the UK, the COVID19-Psychological Research Consortium Study (C19PRC) launched to evaluate the psychological impact of COVID-19 in the general population and its implications. The project was then extended to Italy and several other countries. This article provides an overview of the Italian C19PRC study and its replication of two specific findings from the UK C19PRC. In the first part, the relationship between anxiety and somatic symptomatology is examined. In the second part, we analyze the association between several factors and psychological health outcomes: depression/anxiety, traumatic stress, COVID-19 anxiety. In line with the study conducted in the UK, an online survey was administered to the adult Italian general population. The sample included 1038 respondents (age, mean = 49.94, SD = 16.14, 51.15% females) taken from four regions: Lombardia, Veneto, Lazio, and Campania. The relationship between predictors and outcomes was evaluated by means of logistic regression models. Somatic indices showed a positive association with anxiety, worse somatic symptoms were associated with mourning a loss of a beloved one due to COVID-19 and with precarious health conditions. Females showed a higher incidence of psychological issues. No differences in anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress were found across regions but the Campania region showed the most severe somatic symptomatology. In the second analysis, the factors associated with more severe psychological outcomes (i.e., anxiety and/or depression, traumatic stress, and COVID-19 related anxiety) were younger age, the presence of minors in the household, traumatic stressors, and precarious health conditions. No differences across regions emerged. The Italian results correspond to the UK findings for anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress. Both in the UK and Italy, the factors associated with worse psychological health were gender (female), younger age, having children, pre-existing health issues (both for oneself or someone close), and the moderate/high perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 within one month. In Italy, unlike the UK, lower household income and having (had) COVID-19 were not associated with poorer mental health. The psychological impact of COVID-19 can last for months; future research should explore all aspects of the psychological burden of COVID-19 in order to implement psychological interventions and promote psychological health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]