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This study assesses the midsummer precipitation prediction over eastern China by the dynamic downscaling method. Based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, the prediction performance of global and regional models on the July precipitation over eastern China is further analyzed by hindcast experiments from 1982 to 2010 and prediction experiments from 2011 to 2021. The results suggest that the regional model forced by the global model can noticeably improve the prediction skill for precipitation in eastern China, especially in the region from the South of North China to the Yangtze River Basin, referred as the northern China in this paper. In addition, we perform a diagnostic analysis of the reason for the improvement of the model prediction skill. The results indicate that the high resolution of the regional model and the refinement of physical process parameterizations contribute to improving the simulation ability for the East Asian atmospheric circulation pattern, heat flux, especially for the meridional teleconnection pattern in East Asia and the sensible heat flux in the northern China, thus further improving precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical prediction of monsoon rainfall has been an important topic and a long-standing issue in both research and operational community. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall using the hindcast record from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC CSM1.1m, during the period 1983–2019. The model exhibits reasonable skills for predicting the EASM rainfall at all lead times with the skill dropping dramatically from the shortest lead time of about 2 weeks (LM0) to 1-month lead (LM1), and then fluctuating remarkably throughout 2-month to 12-month lead times. Over the EASM domain, the rapid decline of the S2S rainfall prediction skill from LM0 to LM1 is mainly caused by the inferior skills over Central China in July and over Northeast China in August. Composite analysis based on hindcast records suggest that these inferior skills are directly tied to the model's difficulties in capturing above-normal precipitation over eastern Central China and Northeast China in the respective months, which are further shown to be associated with anomalous weakening and meridional movement of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the activity of large-scale teleconnection pattern hard to be predicted over northeastern Asia in summer, respectively. These findings inform the intrinsic limits of the S2S predictability of the EASM rainfall by a dynamical model, and strongly suggest that the level of confidence placed upon S2S forecasts should be stratified by large-scale circulation anomalies known to significantly affect the prediction skill, e.g., the subtropical high and high-latitude teleconnection patterns for summer monsoon rainfall prediction in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal precipitation and temperature predictions with global climate models that are developed based on the ocean–atmosphere interactions, contribute to the water resources management and hazard mitigation. To date, multi-model ensemble seasonal climate prediction systems, such as North American multi-model ensemble (NMME), are an effective way to provide useful forecast information a few months ahead especially over regions with strong ocean–atmosphere coupling. Previous studies have evaluated the skill of NMME hindcasts worldwide, however, whether the NMME real-time forecasts perform as well as the hindcasts and how the decadal variability in ocean-atmospheric teleconnections affect the prediction skill remain unclear. In this paper, based on precipitation and temperature datasets from nine models of NMME, the evaluation of forecast skills during hindcast (1982–2010) and real-time forecast (2011–2020) periods is carried out in the Yangtze River basin over China. Results show that although selecting an appropriate time frame for the calculation of climatology can reduce errors of real-time prediction, but the real-time prediction skills are lower than hindcast skills in the Yangtze River basin, with anomaly correlation decreased by 14–51% (38–75%) and error increased by 30–31% (51–55%) for seasonal precipitation (temperature) predictions up to the sixth lead-season, and the skill decrease is larger at longer leads. The failure in representing the decadal variations of ocean-atmospheric teleconnection (especially the association with Indian Ocean surface temperature) during the real-time forecast period can partly explain the decline in the prediction skills. Our findings suggest that a better grasp of decadal variability is needed to improve the real-time climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of summer precipitation in north China (NCP) has long been a challenge partly because its low correlation with previous sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) limits the application of SST in NCP prediction. This study aims to extract optimal predictors of NCP from the SST field using an objective method—empirically optimal screening (EOS). It finds that the optimal precursory signal of NCP lies in the change of SSTA from winter to spring rather than the SSTA itself. This study identifies two optimal precursory signs predicting a positive (negative) NCP anomaly: the anomalous SST cooling (warming) from winter to spring in the coastal area of Somalia and Peru. Interestingly, these two presummer conditions have considerable independence, but they lead to a similar summer development of La Niña (El Niño). In summer, the tropical precipitation anomaly pattern associated with La Niña (El Niño) development excites a meridional wave train over the western Pacific and the circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. Both of the anomalous wave trains show abnormal high (low) pressure over northeast Asia, which induces the south (north) wind anomalies over north China and produces abundant (deficient) precipitation there. These results highlight the importance of the SST evolution from winter to spring, break through the limitation of SST application in NCP prediction, and thus bring a prospect of improving NCP forecast skills. Significance Statement: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are most used as predictors in climate prediction. However, the forecast of summer precipitation in north China is limited by its low correlation with prior SST anomalies. In this paper, we find that the optimal precursory signal of north China precipitation (NCP) is not the SST anomaly itself, but the changes of SST anomalies from winter to spring in the coastal area of Somalia and Peru. These two precursory signals are almost independent yet indicate similar summer situations leading to NCP anomaly. These results highlight the importance of the dynamic evolution of sea surface temperature in improving the forecast skill of NCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most significant increasing areas for summer precipitation extremes in China. In this paper, the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20day) is selected as a representative variable to explore the probable causes of abnormal changes in summer precipitation extremes in recent decades by using the gridded 0.25° × 0.25° observation dataset of CN05.1, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5° and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) V5 with a horizontal resolution of 2.0° × 2.0°. The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon was early (late), and the R20day in summer was more (less) on both interannual and interdecadal scales. In recent decades, the East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon weakened, and the R20day in the GBA increased. When the Eurasian teleconnection pattern is in the positive (negative) phase, positive (negative) height anomalies occur in Mongolia and North Central China, and negative (positive) height anomalies occur in South China, which enhances (weakens) vertical upward movements and the south wind anomaly in the lower troposphere in South China, resulting in strong (weak) humidity and more (less) R20day in the GBA. The influences of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern, East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern, North Pacific decadal oscillation and western Pacific warm pool strength on R20day are only significant on an interdecadal scale. The North Pacific gyre oscillation has significant effects on the interdecadal change and weakly significant effects on the interannual variation of R20day in the GBA. On an interannual scale, the south-north oscillation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole plays a significant role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any skillful prediction is of great benefit to North China, a region that is densely populated and greatly impacted by droughts. This paper reports potential predictability of North China summer drought 1 month ahead based on hindcasts for 1961–2005 from the "ENSEMBLES" project. Correlation scores of the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index reach 0.49 and 0.39, respectively. The lower-level northwestern Pacific cyclonic circulation anomaly (NWPCCA) and East Asian upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) cooling are the crucial circulations with regard to summer drought. Two sources of predictability are identified: 1) Pacific–Japan and Silk Road teleconnections forced by well-established eastern Pacific Ocean El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in summer, when the two key circulations are both well predicted because of a good prediction of enhanced equatorial central Pacific (CP) rainfall and Indian rainfall deficit, and 2) the subtropical atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with CP El Niño developing, when the skill mainly arises from the reasonable prediction of NWPCCA. In observations, the NWPCCA persists from the preceding spring to summer through a wind–evaporation–SST feedback related to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM). In predictions, the persistence of the NWPCCA is mainly forced by the enhanced convection over the subtropical central North Pacific due to the persistence of the PMM-related meridional SSTA gradient over the CP. This predicted SSTA suppresses the equatorial Pacific rainfall, contributing to low prediction skill for the East Asian UTT cooling. This study demonstrates the importance of extratropical signals from the preceding season in North China summer drought prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wang, X.; Jiang, R.; Xie, J.; Zhao, Y.; Li, F., and Zhu, J., 2019. Multiscale variability of precipitation and their teleconnection with large-scale climate anomalies: A case study of Xi'an city, China. In: Guido-Aldana, P.A. and Mulahasan, S. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources and Exploration. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 93, pp. 417–426. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The changes of precipitation affect the urban rainstorm waterlogging and water resources management, which have important influences on the sustainable development of society. The primary objective of the paper is to provide theoretical basis for local water resources management and disaster prevention and reduction by analyzing the multiscale variability of precipitation and their teleconnection with large-scale climate anomalies in Xi'an city of China. The change characteristics of precipitation and extreme precipitation indices were investigated using Mann-Kendall test, Spearman's rank correlation and wavelet analysis. The cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence were used to explore the correlations between the precipitation and large-scale teleconnection indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sunspot. Results indicate that: the precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer, followed by autumn. The annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation except June and August had decreasing trends, and the magnitudes of precipitation decrease were more pronounced in spring, April and November. The change patterns varied for extreme precipitation indices. The temporal variation in extreme precipitation indices indicated that the extreme precipitation events had mainly increased during 1971-1990 and 1991-2017, and decreased during 1951-1970 and 1951-2017, especially, increased more pronounced during 1991-2017 and decreased more pronounced during 1951-1970. The precipitation exhibited a fluctuant change from increase to decrease, then increase to decrease and finally increase trends, and there was an abrupt change point in 1965. The annual precipitation had statistically significant cycles of 3-5 year and 7-10 year at 5% significance level. The large-scale teleconnection indices affected the precipitation in Xi'an city. The phase differences between precipitation and teleconnection indices including AO and SOI were in-phase dominated, and anti-phase dominated between precipitation and teleconnection indices including ENSO and sunspot, indicating that the AO and SOI exerted positive climate impacts on the precipitation and vice-versa for ENSO and sunspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes of precipitation affect the urban rainstorm waterlogging and water resources management, which have important influences on the sustainable development of society. The primary objective of the paper is to provide theoretical basis for local water resources management and disaster prevention and reduction by analyzing the multiscale variability of precipitation and their teleconnection with large-scale climate anomalies in Xi'an city of China. The change characteristics of precipitation and extreme precipitation indices were investigated using Mann-Kendall test, Spearman's rank correlation and wavelet analysis. The cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence were used to explore the correlations between the precipitation and large-scale teleconnection indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sunspot. Results indicate that: the precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer, followed by autumn. The annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation except June and August had decreasing trends, and the magnitudes of precipitation decrease were more pronounced in spring, April and November. The change patterns varied for extreme precipitation indices. The temporal variation in extreme precipitation indices indicated that the extreme precipitation events had mainly increased during 1971-1990 and 1991-2017, and decreased during 1951-1970 and 1951-2017, especially, increased more pronounced during 1991-2017 and decreased more pronounced during 1951-1970. The precipitation exhibited a fluctuant change from increase to decrease, then increase to decrease and finally increase trends, and there was an abrupt change point in 1965. The annual precipitation had statistically significant cycles of 3-5 year and 7-10 year at 5% significance level. The large-scale teleconnection indices affected the precipitation in Xi'an city. The phase differences between precipitation and teleconnection indices including AO and SOI were in-phase dominated, and anti-phase dominated between precipitation and teleconnection indices including ENSO and sunspot, indicating that the AO and SOI exerted positive climate impacts on the precipitation and vice-versa for ENSO and sunspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oscillations in global modes of variability (MoVs) form global teleconnections that affect regional climate variability and modify the potential for severe and damaging weather conditions. Understanding the link between certain MoVs and regional climate can improve the ability to more accurately predict environmental conditions that impact human life and health. In this study, we explore the connection between different MoVs, including the Arctic oscillation (AO), Eurasian teleconnection, Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and El Niño southern oscillation (Nino34), with winter and summer climates in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, including geopotential height at 250 hPa (z250), 2 m air temperature (T2M), total precipitation (PRECTOT), and fractional snow cover area (fSCA). Relationships are explored for the same monthly period between the MoVs and the climate variables, and a lagged correlation analysis is used to investigate whether any relationship exists at different time lags. We find that T2M has a negative correlation with the Eurasian teleconnection in the Inner Tibetan Plateau and central China in both winter and summer and a positive correlation in western China in summer. PRECTOT has a positive correlation with all MoVs in most regions in winter, especially with the IOD, and a negative correlation in summer, especially with the Eurasian teleconnection. Snow cover in winter is positively correlated with most indices throughout many regions in HMA, likely due to wintertime precipitation also being positively correlated with most indices. Generally, the AO and NAO show similar correlation patterns with all climate variables, especially in the winter, possibly due to their oscillations being so similar. Furthermore, the AO and NAO are shown to be less significant in explaining the variation in HMA climate compared to other MoVs such as the Eurasian teleconnection. Overall, our results identify different time windows and specific regions within HMA that exhibit high correlations between climate and MoVs, which might offer additional predictability of the MoVs as well as of climate and weather patterns in HMA and throughout the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the backdrop of global warming, extreme precipitation events have become more frequent. In complex terrain regions, due to the vulnerability of their ecosystems, extreme precipitation events can lead to significant secondary disasters. Utilizing daily rainfall data from the National Meteorological Information Center of China and statistical analysis, this study explores the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in the Central Southwest China (CSC) region. The temporal pattern of extreme precipitation in CSC shows a consistent trend, while the spatial distribution reveals an opposite phase between the northern and southern parts of CSC. Based on this, we propose a new method for constructing extreme precipitation prediction models for complex terrain regions based on physical mechanisms, and take CSC area as a study case. Instead of anonymous feature selection, this method improves the accuracy and stability of the model by studying the impact of sea–air interactions on extreme precipitation and then introducing it into deep learning. It was found that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South Indian Ocean affects extreme precipitation in the CSC by influencing uplift, atmospheric instability, and moisture. The SST anomaly also affects the intensity of cross-equatorial airflow, which changes the trajectory of the Pacific–Japan teleconnection wave and impacts extreme precipitation. These findings provide a comprehensive and reliable approach for forecasting extreme precipitation in CSC and are further integrated into the extreme precipitation prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China's domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diversity of summer precipitation regimes over eastern China has raised concerns. Its variations during different warming periods and the relevant mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, the decadal precipitation changes and the associated atmospheric circulations, ocean conditions, and warming over Northern Hemisphere were investigated. The results indicated a quadrupole precipitation pattern over eastern China in the boreal summer, with a significant shift around 1998. From 1985–98 to 1999–2014, two wet anomalies were over North China (NC) and South China (SC), while two dry anomalies were over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin (YHRB) and northeastern China (NEC). This quadrupole pattern is associated with the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation ("−IPO"), the warming over the high latitudes of North Atlantic ("+HNA"), and the warming rate over the Northern Hemisphere (NWR). The CGT would induce the weakened polar front jet (PJ), southward shift of the PJ, and northward shift of the entire subtropical jet (SJ), which decreased the meridional distance between the PJ and SJ, and therefore resulted in the NC-wet–YHRB-dry–SC-wet variation. As well, the dry NEC was attributed to the enhanced PJ, weakened Iranian Plateau subtropical jet (IPSJ), and northward movement of the PJ and Tibetan Plateau subtropical jet (TPSJ), which were accompanied by −IPO and +HNA. Moreover, the NWR led to the weakened PJ and SJ, as well as the southward shift of PJ, also contributed to the dry YHRB, and wet anomalies over NC and SC. Particularly, the +HNA plays an important role in this quadrupole precipitation variation. Our findings have highlighted the role of jet streams in complex precipitation patterns, which will contribute to understanding the diverse variations in precipitation regimes over eastern China under global warming. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to understand the regime shifts of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in different warming periods. We revealed a new precipitation pattern over eastern China as a "+ − + −" precipitation pattern from south to north. The circumglobal teleconnection, the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation, the warming over the high-latitude North Atlantic, and the warming over Northern Hemisphere can be used to explain the quadrupole precipitation pattern. These findings could highlight the role of jet streams linking the quadrupole pattern to the teleconnections, dominant decadal ocean variabilities and the warming over Northern Hemisphere. Future work will focus on the role of Arctic rapid warming in summer precipitation over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a continuous and relatively stable rainy period every spring in southern China (SC). This spring precipitation process is a unique weather and climate phenomenon in East Asia. Previously, the variation characteristics and associated mechanisms of this precipitation process have been mostly discussed from the perspective of seasonal mean. Based on the observed and reanalysis datasets from 1982 to 2021, this study investigates the diversity of the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC, and focuses on the potential influence of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results show that the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC have significant differences, and the correlations between each two months are very weak. All the interannual variations of precipitation in three months are related to a similar western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC), and the southwesterlies at the western flank of WNPAC bring abundant water vapor for the precipitation in SC. However, the WNPAC is influenced by tropical SST anomalies in different regions each month. The interannual variation of precipitation in March in SC is mainly influenced by the signal of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the associated SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific regulate the WNPAC through the Pacific-East Asia (PEA) teleconnection. In contrast, the WNPAC associated with the interannual variation of precipitation in April can be affected by the SST anomalies in the northwestern equatorial Pacific through a thermally induced Rossby wave response. The interannual variation of precipitation in May is regulated by the SST anomalies around the western Maritime Continent, which stimulates the development of low-level anomalous anticyclones over the South China Sea and east of the Philippine Sea by driving anomalous meridional vertical circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has been regarded as one of the most important interdecadal factors to the interdecadal summer precipitation in eastern China, which, however, cannot keep a consistent pattern during the same positive or negative PDO phase. Because sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies vary along with PDO evolvement, the PDO impacts are investigated in terms of developing and decaying stages of its positive and negative phases, respectively. It is found that the SST cooling in mid-latitude North Pacific and SST warming in off-equator central-eastern Pacific are generally intensified from the developing stage to the decaying stage for positive PDO phase, and vice versa. Particularly, during the decaying stage of positive (negative) PDO phase, the enhanced SST warming (cooling) in northeastern tropical Pacific triggers a stronger (weaker) large-scale Walker circulation and suppresses (enhances) the convective activities in western tropical Pacific, which favors a meridional wave train like East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia. Meanwhile, the westward extended SST cooling (warming) in mid-latitude North Pacific together with the SST warming (cooling) to its south significantly increases (decreases) the meridional SST gradient and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity, conductive to the strengthened (weakened) and southward (northward) shifted East Asian subtropical westerly jet as well as an equivalent barotropic "cold trough" in western North Pacific. Because of such tropical and extratropical dynamical processes, a meridional tripole pattern of precipitation anomalies occurs in eastern China which dominates the PDO impact in the same phase and distinctly different from the dipole pattern during the developing stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to explore the changing characteristics of summer, compound, extreme hot–humid events over eastern China in recent decades and the associated underlying mechanisms. Results showed that the summer extreme hot–humid events over eastern China have tended to increase but with strong interannual variability in recent decades. Further analyses indicated that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northwest Pacific (NW Pacific) and western tropical Pacific, and the May Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies are the key elements that are closely connected to the variations in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The positive SST anomalies over the NW Pacific in summer, on the one hand, could strengthen the local circulation patterns that lead to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over eastern China. On the other hand, the positive SST anomalies over the western tropical Pacific excite an anomaly pattern similar to the Pacific–Japan pattern that weakens the westerly jet and enhances the anticyclone circulation anomalies over the upper level of eastern China. Both of them provide favorable conditions for extreme hot–humid events over eastern China with increased moisture and temperatures. The sensitivity experiments by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with SST forcing yield similar influencing processes to the observations. Additionally, the effect of SIC may be potentially responsible for the hot conditions in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The signal of declining May SIC could persist to summer and then influence the SST anomalies to its south, which could also produce a beneficial background for extreme hot–humid events to increase over eastern China by exciting the Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia–Lake Baikal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroclimate reconstruction for the last millennium is essential to understand the differences in hydroclimate extremes and their causes under cold/warm conditions. In this study, the first gridded drought/flood grades (D/F grades) dataset in eastern China (EC) during the last millennium was generated. This D/F grades dataset mainly consisted of two components. The first section was created by interpolating drought/flood grades from 1500 to 2000 using the angular distance weight method. Sampling error estimates were employed to assess the effects of the interpolated dataset. The second section for the D/F grades dataset during 960–1500 was generated by constructing best subset regression models using selected tree-ring chronologies in the United States through atmospheric teleconnection. The validation parameters of the calibration equations were also derived, including the adjusted R2, predicted R2, RE, and CE. This dataset provides critical support for investigating the characteristics and causes of hydroclimate extremes in EC at various spatiotemporal scales, as well as the relationship with climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and East Asia Summer Monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Holocene hydroclimate evolution and underlying mechanisms modulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) remains controversial, especially in south eastern China. Here we present a multiproxy peat record of monsoon evolution from southeastern China covering the last 14 ka. Our new records show a relatively weaker EASM but wetter hydroclimate during the early (10 to 8 ka) and late Holocene (after 5.4 ka), while a stronger EASM and overall drier climate during the mid-Holocene (8 to 5.4 ka). In line with nearby speleothem records, our results reveal a dominant control of the northern-latitude ice-sheet meltwater forcing on millennial-scale East Asian hydroclimate variability during the last deglaciation and early Holocene. This dominant influence, however, likely waned once the global sea level had stabilized during the mid-to-late Holocene, giving way to other drivers of the monsoon and hydroclimate, including a combination of summer insolation and teleconnection patterns associated with vegetation-dust feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The north China July precipitation (NCJP) accounts for the largest proportion of annual total precipitation in north China and displays a significant decadal variability of a cycle about 20‐year at least from the past 40 years. There is a significant negative correlation between the July northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NNASST) and NCJP on decadal scale. When the detrended July NNASST anomaly is in negative phase, the NCJP anomaly is in positive phase, and vice versa. We present the coupled oceanic–atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the July NNASST influences on NCJP decadal variability via the Eurasian decadal teleconnection (EAT) pattern: the NNASST stimulates the EAT pattern which regulates circulation anomalies in north China and its surrounding regions, and finally regulates precipitation anomalies in north China by influencing the local water vapour transport. In addition, a preliminary analysis about the causes of the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 indicates that the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 is not just the decadal role of the NNASST on NCJP, may be the combined influence of the WPSH in the northeastern of north China, the abnormal high pressure in the northwest and the low‐pressure cyclone in the south in the rainy decadal background. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The springtime haze events in Guangdong Province are mainly located in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, which has the second highest number of haze days among four seasons. The major regional-scale circulation patterns affecting the interannual spring haze days in the PRD region are closely associated with high pressure extending from Baikal Lake to Okhotsk Sea, the North Pacific low pressure, the East Asian Trough, low-level meridional wind over eastern China, and upper tropospheric East Asian Jet. We define a comprehensive circulation index (CCIDX) to express joint effects of major regional-scale circulations. The positive phase of the CCIDX is intimately linked to negative Scandinavian Peninsula (SCAND)-like and WP teleconnection patterns, which induces abnormal northerly winds, low temperatures, and less precipitation over the PRD region by modulating regional atmospheric circulations. In addition, the positive CCIDX favors the enhancement the negative 850 hPa Eady growth rate over the middle and high latitude areas in East Asia, thus weakening the atmosphere baroclinity in the lower troposphere and hampering transportation of pollutants north of southern China into the Pacific Ocean. As such, pollutants accumulated to the north of southern China are advected to the PRD region by pronounced low-level northerly airflows. The positive phase of the CCIDX can provide favorable local meteorological circumstances (i.e., enhanced vertical descending motion, reduced lower specific humidity, decreased surface wind speed, and enhanced low-level atmospheric inversion) required for the increased incidence of haze pollution over the PRD region. It is found that the increase of specific humidity with height, which is mainly contributed by horizontal moisture advection and apparent moisture sink, contributes largely to the sustainability of low-level atmospheric inversion in the PRD region via absorptions of long-wave radiation. Above 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal warm advection and diabatic heating also provide favorable conditions for maintenance of low-level atmospheric inversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of urbanization on regional precipitation is one of the most important issues in hydrology. This paper selected the North Haihe Basin as the study area and explored the connection between summer precipitation and urbanization index (URBI) based on satellite precipitation and nighttime lights datasets. A moving spatial percentage anomaly method (MSP) was used to signify the local induced enhancement of precipitation (LIEP). Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) clustering for LIEP and URBI based on Bivariate Moran's I coupled with digital elevation model (DEM) segmentation was used to separate the impacts caused by urbanization and terrain uplifting, and thus, the regions of interest (ROI) where the urban induced enhancement of precipitation (UIEP) plays a dominant role were located. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to reveal the spatial variation of the sensitivity of UIEP to URBI within the ROI. Pearson correlation and cross-wavelet analyses (XWT) were adopted to investigate the teleconnection between UIEP and climate anomalies, using Niño3.4 and SOI as indices. The results indicated that: (1) Urbanization effects on precipitation spatial variation in the upstream mountainous area would be hidden away by topographic factors. (2) From the perspective of the basin, the highest urbanization level areas have the Lowest LIEP, while the suburban areas have the highest LIEP, and the rural areas are in the middle. (3) The UIEP and the URBI are generally negatively correlated within ROI. (4) UIEP versus Niño3.4 and SOI both show a significant common high-power period at a time scale of 2 years. This work can help comprehensively understand the hydrological response to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spring tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North Atlantic are an outstanding regional mode of interannual variability. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets during 1979–2019, this study reveals the relationship and linking mechanism between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST anomalies and the central China July precipitation (CCJP). Results show that the tripole SST anomalies, especially the warm SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), often cause surplus CCJP through the tropical and extratropical pathways. On the one hand, the spring TNA SST warming induces a pan-tropical climate response with the cooling in the central equatorial Pacific and the warming in the Indo-western Pacific until the following July through a series of air–sea interactions, helping maintain an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and transport more warm humid flows to central China. On the other hand, the spring TNA and SNA SST warming persist into the following July and then emanate a wave train extending from the SNA throughout the Eurasian continent to East Asia, which induces an anomalous anticyclone over North China with its southeast flank transporting more cold air to central China. The warm humid flows from the south against the cold air from the north are conductive to the local ascending motion, favoring the increased CCJP. Our results highlight both the tropical and extratropical teleconnection pathways of the North Atlantic SST anomalies affecting the CCJP. This suggests an important seasonal predictor of the regional climate. Significance Statement: July is the peak rainy month of central China, with heavy precipitation occurring frequently and often causing serious impacts on the local production and livelihood of millions of people. This study finds that the spring tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in North Atlantic induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation can exert significant impacts on the following July precipitation over central China through both the tropical and extratropical pathways. This improves our understanding of the causes of the surplus July precipitation over central China and has important implications for the seasonal predictability of the regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to improve the predictability of extreme droughts in China by identifying their relationship with atmospheric teleconnection patterns (ATPs). Firstly, a core drought region (CDR) is defined based on historical drought analysis to investigate possible prediction methods. Through the investigation of the spatial-temporal characteristics of spring drought using a modified Mann–Kendall test, the CDR is found to be under a decadal drying trend. Using principal component analysis, four principal components (PCs), which explain 97% of the total variance, are chosen out of eight teleconnection indices. The tree-based model reveals that PC1 and PC2 can be divided into three groups, in which extreme spring drought (ESD) frequency differs significantly. The results of Poisson regression on ESD and PCs showed good predictive performance with R-squared value larger than 0.8. Furthermore, the results of applying the neural networks for PCs showed a significant improvement in the issue of under-estimation of the upper quartile group in ESD, with a high coefficient of determination of 0.91. This study identified PCs of large-scale ATPs that are candidate parameters for ESD prediction in the CDR. We expect that our findings can be helpful in undertaking mitigation measures for ESD in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability in summer precipitation intraseasonal oscillation intensity over southwest China (SWC) is investigated in this study. The results indicate that the 7–20-day period dominates the intraseasonal variability in summer SWC precipitation. The leading mode of summer SWC precipitation 7–20-day oscillation intensity (SPOI) is a north–south dipole pattern with prominent interannual variability. The atmospheric circulation anomalies from both tropics and mid- to high latitudes are responsible for the interannual variability in the dipole pattern. In the tropics, an enhanced local Hadley cell and an anomalous anticyclone over southern China and the northwest Pacific contribute to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI by inducing moisture convergence (divergence) over northern (southern) SWC in the background state. In the mid- to high latitudes, the 7–20-day Rossby wave trains along the subtropical jet are crucial for the 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Further analyses suggest that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the North Atlantic (NA) are associated with the SPOI dipole pattern. The MC SST warming causes convection anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific, consequently triggering a Matsuno–Gill-type atmospheric response conducive to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI. The NA SST tripole triggers a Rossby wave train across Eurasia that strengthens the East Asian westerly jet and enhances 7–20-day atmospheric variability, consequently favoring the variability of 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Diagnoses of moisture and vorticity budgets further indicate the importance of the interaction between intraseasonal fluctuations and atmospheric background in the formation of the north–south difference in 7–20-day precipitation variability over SWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is difficult to improve the seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North China, owing to the complex dynamics of East Asian winter and the relatively low prediction skill level of current climate models. Deep learning (DL) may be an informative and promising tool to enhance seasonal prediction, particularly in regions where the underlying mechanisms are not clear. Here, using a DL model based on the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), we have found that the prediction skill for North China winter temperature (NCWT) can be extended up to five months by considering the remote impact of the Northeast Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) on North China. Based on historical simulations of winter temperatures in North China, we selected six CMIP5 models with relatively small deviations for training the CNN, and the period chosen for training was 1852–1991. The ERA5 data during 1995–2017 were utilized to evaluate the performance of the CNN. Our CNN shows the best performance in a recent 10-year period (2008–2017), showing a significantly improved level of NCWT prediction skill with a correlation skill of 0.65 at a 5-month lead time, which is much better than the forecast skill of the state-of-the-art dynamic seasonal prediction system. Heat map analysis was used to explore the possible physical mechanisms associated with the NCWT anomaly from the perspective of the CNN; the results showed that the SST over the Northeast Pacific is highly relevant to NCWT prediction. The Northeast Pacific warming in the boreal summer is related to the development of the El Niño event in the coming winter, which may induce NCWT anomalies by atmospheric teleconnection. Climate model experiments support the role of Northeast Pacific warming in the boreal summer on NCWT. The improved capability for prediction from using the CNN may help to establish the energy policy for the coming winter and reduce the economic losses from extremely cold in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region has encountered increasingly severe and frequent haze pollution during recent decades. This study reveals that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has distinctive impacts on interannual variations of haze pollution over BTH in early and late winters. The impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over the BTH is strong in early winter, but weak in late winter. In early winter, ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies generate double-cell Walker circulation anomalies, with upward motion anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and downward motion anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. The ascending motion and enhanced atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean trigger atmospheric teleconnection propagating from the north Indian Ocean to East Asia, and result in the generation of an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia. The associated southerly anomalies to the west side lead to more serious haze pollution via reducing surface wind speed and increasing low-level humidity and the thermal inversion. The strong contribution of the Indian Ocean heating anomalies to the formation of the anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia in early winter can be confirmed by atmospheric model numerical experiments. In late winter, vertical motion and precipitation anomalies are weak over the tropical Indian Ocean related to ENSO. As such, ENSO cannot induce a clear anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia via atmospheric teleconnection, and thus has a weak impact on the haze pollution over BTH. Further analysis shows that stronger ENSO-induced atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in early winter are partially due to higher mean SST and precipitation there. Significance Statement: There exist large discrepancies regarding the contribution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to the wintertime haze pollution over North China. Several studies have indicated that ENSO has a weak impact on the haze pollution over North China. However, some studies have argued that ENSO events can exert impacts on the occurrence of haze pollution over North China. In this study, we present evidence to demonstrate that ENSO has distinctive impacts on interannual variations of the haze pollution over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region in North China in early and late winters. Specifically, ENSO has a strong impact on the haze pollution over BTH in early winter, whereas the impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over BTH is fairly weak in late winter. Results of this study could reconcile the discrepancy of previous studies about the impact of ENSO on the haze pollution over North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the response of summer precipitation over central China to global warming via the 50‐member large‐ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian Earth System Model Version 2. It is found that the model ensemble mean summer precipitation stagnates under warming of 1 to 3°C, while precipitation increases rapidly over central China after 3°C of warming. This phenomenon indicates a strong nonlinear relationship between precipitation change and global warming, and the effects due to natural internal variability are more substantial than those of CO2 forcing in the early warming stage. We further examine the factors responsible for the large uncertainty of the precipitation projection over central China under warming of 1 to 3°C. For the members producing a precipitation increase over central China, the geopotential height and sea level pressure changes show a positive North Atlantic Oscillation–like trend pattern over the North Atlantic and a southeastward propagating atmospheric teleconnection from the North Atlantic to China. The atmospheric teleconnection from the mid–high‐latitude Atlantic to China provides diverging winds in the upper troposphere, causing ascending motion, and contributes to increased precipitation over central China. Besides, an El Niño‐like trend pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) is apparent in the preceding winter, which could contribute to the formation a low‐level anticyclone trend over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the subsequent summer via modulating the SST anomalies in the Indian and Atlantic oceans. The northward water vapour transport in the western part of the anticyclone also favours increased precipitation in central China. The above processes also apply to decreased precipitation, except with opposite signs of anomalies. This study highlights the combined contributions of mid–high‐latitude teleconnection and the WNP anticyclone related to tropical Pacific SST to the uncertainty in the projection of precipitation over central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China is a major agricultural production base in East Asia, and spring is the agricultural ploughing season throughout the region. The precipitation in spring is therefore significant to agricultural activity and production in the region. In this study, the interdecadal variation in spring precipitation across northeast China is investigated. In the past four decades, there has been a significant increase in spring precipitation in northeast China, and the increase in May precipitation made a dominant contribution to that increase. Further analysis indicates that the increase in May precipitation is concurrent with the decline in Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea; both variables show an interdecadal shift around the early 2000s. Physical analysis based on observations and numerical simulations demonstrates that a decline in the Barents Sea SIC could excite a Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia‐Baikal region and reaching northeast China, thereby inducing a zonal anticyclone–cyclone–anticyclone teleconnection pattern over mid‐ to high‐latitude Eurasia. Under the influence of such a teleconnection pattern, significant southerlies prevail over northeast China, bringing warm and wet air to the region; in addition, the local atmospheric instability and upward motion are also increased. The changes in the moisture and dynamic conditions favour the increase in May precipitation over northeast China. Furthermore, SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea persist from late winter to spring; therefore, the SIC signal could provide signals for predictions of the interdecadal changes in May precipitation over northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which generally mature in winter, profoundly affect the following summer rainfall in eastern China (ECSR), but such an impact can change significantly with decadal background. This study examines how the impact has changed since the 1950s by running correlation and regression analyses. It is found that ENSO's impact on ECSR has undergone two decadal shifts, one in the late 1970s and the other in the 1990s. Sequentially, three distinct ENSO-induced ECSR anomaly patterns are categorized, which exhibit both robust and changeable sides. The robust side manifests generally as more precipitation in the Yangtze River basin affected by the anomalous tropical western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in the post-El Niño summer. The changeable side is reflected in the more variable ENSO-induced rainfall anomalies north of the Yangtze River, due to the different ENSO-induced East Asian midlatitude circulation anomalies. Meanwhile, the El Niño-induced drought in South China has been enhanced since the late 1970s with the intensification of the anomalous WNPAC. ENSO's changing impact on the ECSR stems from the changes of ENSO-induced tropical and midlatitude circulation anomalies over East Asia, which are associated with different zonal (from the tropical Pacific to the Indian Ocean) and meridional (from the tropical Pacific to the midlatitude North Pacific) teleconnections of ENSO-induced SST anomalies. The former affects the intensity and location of the anomalous WNPAC by affecting the Indian Ocean capacitor effect and convection anomalies over the tropical Indo-western Pacific. The latter modulates the ocean-to-atmosphere feedback in the midlatitude North Pacific, contributes to different local geopotential anomaly sources, and then directly or indirectly through the Rossby wave train affects the East Asian midlatitude circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe surface ozone (O 3) pollution frequently occurred in North China and obviously damages human health and ecosystems. The meteorological conditions effectively modulate the variations in O 3 pollution. In this study, the interannual relationship between O 3 -related meteorology and late-spring snow cover in West Siberia was explored, and the reasons for its decadal change were also physically explained. Before mid-1990s, less snow cover could enhance net heat flux and stimulate positive phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection in summer. The positive EU pattern resulted in hot, dry air and intense solar radiation in North China, which could enhance the natural emissions of O 3 precursors and photochemical reactions in the atmosphere closely related to high O 3 concentrations. However, after the mid-1990s, the southern edge of the dense snow cover area in West Siberia shifted northward by approximately 2 ∘ in latitude and accompanied radiation and heat flux also retreated toward the polar region. The connections among snow anomalies, EU pattern and surface O 3 became insignificant and thus influenced the stability of the predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal growing season (TGS) that strongly correlates with changes in temperature refers to the whole period during which vegetation growth can occur. The daily mean air temperature data of 66meteorological stations located in the Yellow River basin (YRB) from 1960 to 2017 were used to investigate the inter-annual variations in the TGS indices and their relationships with atmospheric teleconnection patterns (ATPs). The thermal growing season start (GSS), thermal growing season end (GSE), and the length of thermal growing season (GSL) were considered. Our results suggested a significant negative trend in GSS, together with a significant positive trend in GSE, leading to a significant extension of GSL by 2.4 day/decade (p<0.01). The spatial patterns in the trends between GSS and GSE were distinct in this study, indicating that the changes in temperature in spring were considerably different from those in autumn. The mutation analysis presented in this study showed that mutation points in GSS, GSE, and GSL overall were observed in 1998, 1996, and 2001, respectively. Furthermore, the TGS indices were influenced by the ATPs discussed in this studyat certain time scales, and the entire research area was affected by multiple climate indices, indicating that other climate indexes always adjusted the influences of one climate index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency distribution of winter extreme cold events (ECEs) in North China and the influences of mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Northern Hemisphere are studied. The results show that (1) the frequency of single station ECEs (SSECEs) in winter increases from southeast to northwest, with a decrease before 2008 and then a significant increase. This trend abrupt change occurs in late winter. (2) When the SST in the North Pacific shows an "El-Niño-like" anomaly in winter, it triggers the negative Arctic Oscillation (−AO), positive Pacific North America (+PNA), and positive Eurasia Pacific (+EUP) atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the mid-lower troposphere. As a result, the ridge to south of Lake Baikal becomes stronger. Meanwhile, SST in the North Atlantic shows a "reversed C" negative anomaly with North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), (+PNA)-like and (+EUP)-like patterns, and the ridge to southwest of Lake Baikal becomes stronger. Furthermore, both cause the Siberian High to become weaker in the north and stronger in the south. With the weaker East Asia subtropical jet and stronger East Asia winter monsoon, these factors lead to a significant increase of SSECE frequency in North China. (3) When the SSTA shows an "El Niño-like" developing pattern from summer to autumn in the North Pacific, the winter SSECE frequency will be higher. (4) The purported mechanism between the mid-latitude SSTA and the winter SSECE frequency in North China is the following: the SSTA in the North Pacific in summer and autumn excites atmospheric teleconnection wave trains, and the Atlantic stores these anomaly signals. In winter, the interaction between the SSTAs in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic enhances the Eurasian teleconnection wave train. With the upstream fluctuation energy dispersing downstream, the wave train centers move eastward with the season, resulting in an increase in the frequency of the SSECEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze pollution in recent decades varies largely with both pollutant emissions and meteorological conditions. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method, we separate these two influences on haze variations in southern China in the time series of haze observations from 1981 to 2011. This helps us to identify the meteorological influence on interannual variation in haze occurrences in southern China and thus observe a teleconnection between the thermal forcing of sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific and wintertime haze occurrences in southern China (R = − 0.51, p < 0.05). The total haze days in winter is highest among all seasons over southern China and the climotological mean of number of winter haze days is 7.5 days for the region. Compared with the normal winters, the regional mean of the number of haze days in southern China is reduced by ~ 5 days in the winters with above-normal Niño3.4 SST (during El Niño phases), but increased by ~ 4 days in the winters with below-normal Niño3.4 SST (during La Niña phases). In the warm SST winters, the cumulative consequences of strong winds, more precipitation, and a more unstable atmosphere with an "upper colder and lower warmer" vertical pattern leading to more ascendance can all hinder haze formation, whereas in the cold SST winters, opposite meteorological conditions are favorable to haze formation. These meteorological conditions induced by anomalous SST make wintertime haze pollution in southern China vary from year to year to a large extent. This study suggests a strong sensitivity of winter haze occurrences in southern China to the viability of the SST in the central and eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the physical processes behind summer drought in North China by evaluating moisture and energy budget diagnostics and linking them to anomalous large-scale circulation patterns. Moisture budget analysis reveals that summer drought in North China was caused dynamically by reduced vertical moisture advection due to anomalous subsidence and reduced horizontal moisture advection due to anomalous northeasterly winds. Energy budget analysis shows that reduced latent heating was balanced dynamically by decreased dry static energy (DSE) divergence in the middle-toupper troposphere. Linking these results to previous work, we suggest that summer drought in North China was predicated on co-occurrence of the positive phases of the Eurasian (EU) and Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection patterns, potentially modulated by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). In the typical case, the negative phase of the CGT intensified the positive EU-related upper-level cyclone. Resulting upper-level cooling and positive surface feedback imposed a cold-core surface anticyclone that weakened with height. By contrast, when the positive phase of the CGT occurred in tandem with the positive EU and PJ patterns, the anticyclone had a warm core and intensified with height. The two cases were unified by strong subsidence but exhibited opposite meridional advection anomalies. In the cold-core cases, meridional moisture inflow was reduced but meridional DSE export was enhanced, further limiting precipitation while maintaining negative thermal anomalies. In the warm-core case, which only occurred once, enhanced meridional inflow of water vapor supplied moisture for sporadic precipitation while reduced meridional DSE export helped to maintain strong static stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using tree-ring data of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica from the Hulun Buir region in northeast China, 12 annual runoff series of the Hailar River spanning the past 202-216 years were established for the first time; these included 11 branches and one for the entire basin. These reconstructions, which could explain 29.4%-52.7% of the total variance for the measured runoffs during 1956-2006, performed well in statistical verification tests. In the whole basin's reconstruction of 212 years, 34 extreme drought years (16.0%) and 41 extreme pluvial years (19.3%) were identified; 4 of the 10 most extreme years occurred after 1980. The consistent cycle and correlation revealed that the Hailar runoff had a teleconnection with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The sharply increasing variance at the end of the reconstruction, accompanied by the increasing intensity of short cycles (4-8 years), indicated that runoff variability in the Hailar River basin has enhanced in the late twentieth century. This is verified by the drastic fluctuations in water level and area of rivers and lakes, and the frequent shift of natural land cover types in the Hulun Buir area in recent decades. The intensified runoff variability can be connected with the concurrently enhanced ENSO activity. Our study is the first to identify the intensification of recent runoff variability in the semiarid to arid region in northeast China from a long-term perspective. With projected enhancement of ENSO activity, the Hailar River basin will face the increased risk of extreme hydrological events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming has progressed, precipitation patterns over arid Northwest China have undergone significant change. In this study, changes in summer (JJA) precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China (ENWC) from 1980 to 2014 were investigated using the China gridded monthly precipitation dataset (CN05.1). The results showed that summer precipitation over the ENWC experienced a decadal wet‐to‐dry shift in 1998. Westerlies played an important role in the upper atmospheric levels in terms of water vapour transport; the decadal variations in summer precipitation were principally controlled by the water vapour input from the ENWC's western boundary. In addition, the decadal variations in summer precipitation in the ENWC appear to be associated with a meridional teleconnection around 110°E and a zonal pattern over 45–60°N in the lower troposphere. These two teleconnections led to cyclonic anomalies in the ENWC and enhanced water vapour transport into the ENWC, resulting in above‐normal precipitation during the 1989–1998 decadal period. Further, the warmer (colder) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the tropical Eastern Pacific correspond to the southward (northward) displacement of the Asian jet stream and a negative (positive) phase of the Silk Road pattern, resulting in a wet (dry) ENWC. Moreover, the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific may affect summer precipitation over the ENWC via a zonal teleconnection in the middle troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the interdecadal changes in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and midlatitude North Atlantic (MNA) sea surface temperature (SST) with northwest China (NWC) winter precipitation (WP) variability and the plausible causes. Results show that ENSO and MNA SST have weak correlations with NWC WP before the mid-1990s, whereas the connections are enhanced sharply afterward, with above (below) normal precipitation occuring when there are positive (negative) ENSO SST and negative (positive) MNA SST anomalies (SSTA). Remarkable differences are found in the atmospheric circulations. After the mid-1990s, there is a pronounced Pacific–North American–Eurasian (PNA-EU)-like pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas an Arctic Oscillation–like pattern is found before the mid-1990s. The change in the relationships between NWC WP and SSTs is likely attributable to the enhanced connection between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s. It is found that ENSO and MNA SSTA can cause NWC WP variation independently through atmospheric teleconnections. In addition, significant precipitation anomalies also occur when concurrent but oppositely signed SSTs anomalies in the two regions are observed. The reinforced negative correlations between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s act in concert on NWC WP by exciting a PNA-EU-like pattern. This information would help us to better understand the physical processes of the teleconnections between NWC WP variability and the ENSO/MNA SST, in which the strength of the correlation between ENSO and MNA SST should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 1979–2018 datasets of Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily maximum air temperature, HadISST, and NCEP-DOE II reanalysis, the impact of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the interdecadal variability in extreme high temperature (EHT) in North China (NC) is investigated through observational analysis and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) numerical simulations. The observational results show an interdecadal shift in NC's EHT in approximately 1996 with a cold period from 1983 to 1996 and a warm period from 1997 to 2014. The summer PDO and AMO are both closely related to NC's EHT, of which AMO dominates. From the cold to warm period, the combination of PDO and AMO changed from a positive PDO (+ PDO) phase and a negative AMO (− AMO) phase to a negative PDO (− PDO) phase and a positive AMO (+ AMO) phase. The shift in the antiphase combination of PDO and AMO plays an important role in the interdecadal transition of NC's EHT in 1996. PDO could impact NC's EHT through the Pacific-East Asia teleconnection pattern, and AMO could influence the NC's EHT through an atmospheric wave train in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. During the warm period (− PDO and + AMO), warmer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the northern North Pacific (NP) and North Atlantic (NA) could cause anticyclonic circulation anomalies over these two basins. The anticyclonic circulations anomalies over the NP could enhance the anticyclone over NC through the Pacific-East Asian (PEA) teleconnection pattern. It could also cause an easterly wind from the NP to NC which would weaken the upper westerly over NC. The anticyclonic anomalies over the NA, which were parts of the wave train, could affect other sectors of the wave train, resulting in anticyclonic anomalies over NC. The anticyclonic anomalies over NC could strengthen the continental high and weaken the upper zonal westerly, resulting in favorable EHT conditions. During the cold period (+ PDO and − AMO), because of the same atmospheric response mechanism, a westerly wind from NC to NP and a wave train with reversed anomaly centers could be found, causing a cyclonic anomaly over NC that is not conducive to the EHT. A series of numerical simulations using CAM5.3 confirm the above observational results and show that the combination of + PDO and − AMO changing to − PDO and + AMO has a great impact on the interdecadal shift in EHT in NC in 1996. The simulations also show that both + AMO and − PDO can lead the EHT in NC individually, and the impact of AMO on the EHT in NC is dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of precipitation, also called the Meiyu rain, in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain during the last millennium could help enlighten the hydrological response to future global warming. Here we present a precisely dated and highly resolved stalagmite δ18O record from the Yongxing Cave, central China. Our new record, combined with a previously published one from the same cave, indicates that the Meiyu rain has changed dramatically in association with the global temperature change. In particular, our record shows that the Meiyu rain was weakened during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) but intensified during the Little Ice Age (LIA). During the Current Warm Period (CWP), our record indicates a similar weakening of the Meiyu rain. Furthermore, during the MCA and CWP, our records show that the atmospheric precipitation is similarly wet in northern China and similarly dry in central China, but relatively wet during the CWP in southern China. This spatial discrepancy indicates a complicated localized response of the regional precipitation to the anthropogenic forcing. The weakened (intensified) Meiyu rain during the MCA (LIA) matches well with the warm (cold) phases of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. This Meiyu rain pattern also corresponds well to the climatic conditions over the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool. On the other hand, our record shows a strong association with the North Atlantic climate as well. The reduced (increased) Meiyu rain correlates well with positive (negative) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, our record links well to the strong (weak) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA (LIA) period. All abovementioned localized correspondences and remote teleconnections on decadal to centennial timescales indicate that the Meiyu rain was coupled closely with oceanic processes in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans during the MCA and LIA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals a significant effect of the winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP) on the following summer tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in mainland China. During the period 1979–2015, the positive winter TEP SSTA forces a SST zonal tripole pattern anomaly, which is positive SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), negative SSTA in the tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and positive SSTA in the TEP. This SSTA pattern triggers two simultaneous zonal circulation anomalies. One exhibits lower‐level convergent winds, mid‐tropospheric ascendant flows and upper‐level divergent winds over the Western TIO, and reversed situations over the TWP, producing anomalous lower‐level easterlies and upper‐level westerlies between the TIO and TWP. The other shows lower‐level convergence, mid‐tropospheric ascent, upper‐level divergence over the TEP, and reversed situations over the TWP, which create lower‐level westerlies and upper‐level easterlies between the TWP and TEP. The two circulation anomalies further warm the TEP (Western TIO) by driving ambient warm water toward this region and cool the TWP by inducing local upwelling, which facilitates the persistence of the anomalies until the summer. Consequently, the lower‐level negative vorticity, strong vertical wind shear and the lower‐level anticyclone anomalies over most of the Western North Pacific (WNP) are accompanied with anomalous mid‐tropospheric westerlies over the coastal regions in mainland China, suppressing TC genesis and movement towards mainland China so as to decrease the summer TCP in mainland China. These results provide an important implication that the winter TEP SSTA is a potential indicator for seasonal prediction of the WNP TC activity and the TCP in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With significant climate warming, droughts over Southwest (SW) China are drawing increasing interest. By using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT), the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), and the random forest method (RF), this study focused on the trends and spatial variability in wetness/dryness as well as further investigated the potential factors by analyzing the behaviors of precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection indices in SW China. Results show that there are a slight drying trend and a remarkable spatial variation in the patterns of wetness/dryness. Due to the decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, the drying trend (especially for severe and extreme droughts) significantly increases in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Chongqing-Hubei region in the past decades. Additionally, the droughts in this region may also be directly or indirectly affected by the complex karst topographic and hydrological process. The variable importance analysis between climate index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) suggests that Atlantic Oscillation (AO) and Sunspots (SS) are the two most important influencing factors for the variations in dryness/wetness over SW China. Particularly, SS (AO) can be the largest influencing factor for the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Chongqing-Hubei region (Northern and Central Tibet). Besides, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices also show an impact on the variations in dryness/wetness, but their contributions are different in different regions. The results of this study provide certain references for mitigating the potential widespread impact of drought hazards in SW China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the severity of autumn droughts in North China (ADNC) during the period of 1962–2013. The ADNC are defined using the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). The results show that the ADNC are more severe during negative PDO phases than during positive PDO phases. During the negative PDO phase, both the autumn precipitation and the Penman–Monteith reference evaporation (PET_pm) play roles in the significant severity of the ADNC. In contrast, during positive PDO phases, the droughts over North China are impacted to a greater degree by the climate conditions in previous seasons. Regression analysis shows that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with ADNC are quite different over North China under different PDO phases. Specifically, during negative PDO phases, anomalous low‐pressure systems are observed over the East Asia‐western Japan area, indicating a strengthened East Asian trough (EAT). Anomalous northerly winds bring cold and dry air from high‐latitude inland regions to North China, leading to severe ADNC during this period. Meanwhile, significant descending motion is observed in the upstream region of the EAT and the area of North China, accompanied by reduced cloudiness and reduced precipitation over these regions. In contrast, during positive PDO phases, the ADNC‐associated atmospheric circulation anomalies over North China are quite weak. Further analysis shows that during the negative phase of PDO years, the El Niño Southern Oscillation can impact the severity of ADNC through the centre of the Pacific‐East Asian teleconnection pattern over northeastern Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon transition zone (EASMTZ) is a narrow belt-shaped region in northern China, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) transits to the mid-latitude westerlies. Existing EASM intensity indices have difficulties in reflecting the summer monsoon activity in EASMTZ. Therefore, as a complement to EASM index, the humidity index (HI) is constructed based on specific humidity threshold that can describe the seasonal migration of EASM, considering both its northward extent and temporal duration in the EASMTZ. The proposed HI, which captures the leading mode of summer rainfall in China, can provide reliable measurement of the atmosphere humidity associated with summer monsoon in the EASMTZ. HI is closely related to the significant anomalies in western Pacific subtropical high and East Asian subtropical westerly jet, which control the summer monsoon moisture transported into the EASMTZ. These circulation anomalies are linked to ENSO. Correlation analyses show that a high (low) HI tends to occur during the cold (warm) phase of ENSO, accompanied by a warm-to-cold (cold-to-warm) phase transition. There are two possible mechanisms that are responsible for the linkage between HI and ENSO. One is the upper-level zonal wind anomaly wave trains which transfers ENSO-related zonal wind anomaly northwards into EASMTZ through thermal wind balance and Eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. The other involves the Indian summer monsoon and mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection. ENSO may exert influences on the humidity in EASMTZ via Indian summer monsoon and circumglobal teleconnection when the interaction between Indian summer monsoon and ENSO is active. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer precipitation in South China (SC) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal variation during 1983–2013 with trend transition in the late 1990s. This study quantitatively investigates the precipitation variation and its connection to water vapor transport by combining the Lagrangian trajectory-based Dynamic Recycling Model and the clustering method of self-organizing map. The external moisture outside of SC explains most (84%) of the mean and the interdecadal variation of the summer rainfall, mainly through the southwest transport pathways. A long-distance southwest pathway related to cross-equatorial flow and eastward flow over the Northern Indian Ocean explains 31.5% of mean precipitation and 50.4% of the upward precipitation trend before 1997. The other branch of the southwest pathways has relatively shorter length over North Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and Southeast Asia, explaining 35.7% of the mean and 51.2% of the downward trend after 1997. Also, for the downward trend, the westerly-driven moisture transport over Eurasia acts as the second contributor (32.2%) to the precipitation decrease. However, the western-Pacific pathway explains the smallest portion (≤ 3%) of the trends, suggesting weak influence from the subtropical high. The large-scale circulation anomaly in the form of zonal and meridional wave trains control the interdecadal variability of the SC precipitation. It is found that the circumglobal teleconnection and Pacific–Japan teleconnection significantly correlate to the two wave trains, whose match relation strongly modulates the trend transition in the 1990s for the SC summer precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a powerful indicator for temporal precipitation distribution and is also very useful for the assessment of seasonal precipitation changes. The primary objectives of this study are to investigate and analyse the temporal–spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal PCI values based on monthly precipitation data. These data were collected from 597 meteorological stations located throughout China, for the time period of 1960–2016, and were used to assess the impacts of geographical parameters (latitude, longitude, and altitude) on the PCI. Additionally, the possible teleconnection with the large‐scale circulation pattern was investigated. Our results reveal that the variation trend of annual PCI values has decreased significantly at a rate of −.234/10 year (α = .01) in China over the past 57 years. For all studied station records, 434 (72.7%) stations showed decreasing trends of PCI values, and these stations are distributed over large areas in China. On an annual scale, the average PCI value ranged from 11 in Hunan province to 44 in Qinghai province. The precipitation concentration in China can be described as strongly irregular in the western and northern parts of the northwest and in the northern region of the Tibetan Plateau, while it is irregular in the southwest and the north of China, and moderately irregular in some parts of the middle‐lower regions of the Yangtze River and southern China. The regularity of the annual precipitation pattern significantly decreased in spring, autumn, and winter from southeastern to northwestern China, and was the most in winter. However, the summer precipitation dispersion and the pattern in the considered period were more regular than those of the other seasons. Furthermore, changes in the PCI appear to be rather complex and possibly related to global atmospheric characteristics as well as geographical factors (latitude, longitude, and altitude). The results presented in this study indicate that the PCI is an essential feature for water resource planning, prediction of risk due to droughts or floods, and the management of natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of seasonal distribution and interannual variability of rainfall to the ecosystem and society, there is a lack of regional-level studies on rainfall seasonality, and teleconnections between global climate events and rainfall seasonality are not well understood. To address these issues, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall seasonality across China from 1961 to 2012. A novel application of information theory-based rainfall seasonality indicators was conducted at the regional scale, and observed monthly precipitation data was used. The rainfall seasonality anomalies during negative and positive phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the possible physical mechanisms behind were also investigated. The results showed that rainfall seasonality increased, especially in Southeast China, which can be attributed to changes in magnitude (annual rainfall), timing, or duration of the wet season. Global climate events significantly affected rainfall seasonality indicators in Southeast China during negative and positive phases. The sea surface temperature (SST) or sea level pressure (SLP), and wind anomalies during the negative and positive phases might explain the spatial differences in the influences of global climate events on rainfall seasonality across China. These results may prove valuable for sustainable water resource management and agricultural production in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation in the north fringe of East Asian Summer Monsoon (NFEASM) accounts for the majority of annual regional precipitation and plays an important role in regional climatology and agriculture development. Here we analyze variations in summer precipitation in the NFEASM over the past millennium using several simulations with Earth System Models and compare with two dendroclimatological hydroclimate reconstructions that partly cover the past millennium. Both reconstructed records show good agreement on past hydroclimate variations but do not show overly anomalous hydroclimate periods, except for clear drying trends in the second half of the twentieth century. The reconstructed decadal hydroclimate variations are not correlated with any of the simulations, and the simulations are not correlated among themselves either, which strongly suggests that the decadal variability is not linked to the external climate forcing. In addition, the superposed epoch analysis also does not identify a response of simulated precipitation to volcanic eruptions. Therefore, precipitation variability in this region over the past millennium seems to have been driven by internal climate processes. In the simulations, regional summer precipitation is positively and significantly correlated with sea-level-pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific and is negatively and significantly correlated with SLP in southwestern China at both interannual and decadal time scales. This agrees with the teleconnection patterns identified from meteorological reanalysis datasets, indicating that this dipole correlation pattern is robust. Therefore, the SLP difference between these two areas is used as an index to identify the atmosphere circulation pattern favorable to summer precipitation in the NFEASM. This SLP index shows spatial variable correlations with sea-surface-temperature (SST) in the North Pacific: there is a significant positive correlation in the northern North Pacific, while a significant negative correlation in the southern North Pacific. Although the underlying mechanisms for these correlations likely differ between two subareas, it appears that the atmosphere drives SST anomalies in the both subareas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high aerosol concentration (AC) over eastern China has attracted attention from both science and society. Based on the simulations of a chemical transport model using a fixed emissions level, the possible impact of the previous autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) combined with the simultaneous El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the boreal winter AC over eastern China is investigated. We find that the NAO only manifests its negative impacts on the AC during its negative phase over central China, and a significant positive influence on the distribution of AC is observed over south China only during the warm events of ENSO. The impact of the previous NAO on the AC occurs via an anomalous sea surface temperature tripole pattern by which a teleconnection wave train is induced that results in anomalous convergence over central China. In contrast, the occurrence of ENSO events may induce an anomalous shift in the western Pacific subtropical high and result in anomalous southwesterlies over south China. The anomalous circulations associated with a negative NAO and El Niño are not favorable for the transport of AC and correspond to worsening air conditions over central and south China. The results highlight the fact that the combined effects of tropical and extratropical systems play a considerable role in affecting the boreal winter AC over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed summertime wave patterns in the western North Pacific by separating them into those during El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years for 1979–2015. The background flow revealed that in the EN years, the subtropical high was weaker and the East Asian summer monsoon trough was deeper and extended farther southeastward. The composite results indicated that in the EN years, tropical cyclone (TC) tracks were more solid and stably associated with wave pattern propagation routes because the circulation anomalies were significantly stronger. However, in the LN years, when the wave patterns were weak under the shorter and less organized monsoon trough due to the enhanced subtropical high, the TC tracks and cyclonic anomalies were irregular and sporadic. Further background flow analyses indicated that the EN circulation favored the development of the monsoon trough and east–west expansion and contraction of the subtropical ridge, whereas the stronger subtropical ridge dominated most western North Pacific areas in the LN years. Therefore, the monsoon trough was weaker in the LN years and induced recurving TCs to take more scattered routes near Taiwan and China's east coast. Therefore, Taiwan experienced more rainfall during recurving TC periods in the LN years than in the EN years. For the straight-moving TCs passing through Taiwan, rainfall was concentrated over southern Taiwan in the EN years but more evenly distributed in the LN years. Thus, background flow changes strongly affect wave patterns and TCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]