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Based on blended diffusion theory which reconciles the two mechanisms of fertility change (due to adaptation to social structure change or due to diffusion), this study examines the role of adaptation and diffusion of China's low fertility in the first decade of the 21st century. A two‐period panel data set on fertility for 358 prefecture‐level administrative units assembled in 2000 and 361 in 2010 population census is used. Exploratory and confirmatory analysis techniques from spatial econometrics are applied to analyze this data. Results from exploratory spatial data analysis reveal a general spatial autocorrelation for fertility and its change. Inspection with local indicators of spatial autocorrelation identifies local spatial clusters of fertility: high‐value clusters in the western region and low‐value clusters in northeastern and east coast areas. Total fertility rates and its change are modelled with socioeconomic and demographic factors using a spatial lag Durbin model. The results suggest that the spread of low fertility in China tends to be consistent with blended diffusion theory. Low fertility in China not only adapts to economic growth, social development and even institution structure, but also influenced by diffusion of new attitudes and ideas related to childbearing and family formation. More importantly, adaptation diffuses too. Socioeconomic circumstances in neighbouring cities often are strongly interdependent. This study highlights the importance of 'bringing space back' to demographic research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the distributional effects of high temperature on worker performance and the effectiveness of adaptation when capital investments such as air conditioning are not feasible. Using a longitudinal data set of 3196 professional archers in 57 competitions during 2010–2016 in China, which includes accurate performance measures at the individual‐by‐contest level, we show that heat causes more uneven performance distributions by hurting the bottom performers more than the top performers. More frequent heat reduces average performance and raises distributional inequality more than increases in average temperature. Gaining experience and long‐term acclimatization together can mitigate 70% of the heat impacts, demonstrating the potential of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964–2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s. • Increases in the number of extreme hot days increase annual mortality rate. • Little evidence of adaptation when moving from short run to medium run. • Residential air conditioning has played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]