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Aerosol variability is influenced by changes in emissions and atmospheric dynamics. The aim of this study is to identify the role of synoptic weather systems in affecting the aerosol variation over East Asia under future changes in atmospheric dynamics. First we investigate the influence of synoptic weather on aerosol optical depth (AOD) spatiotemporal variability using long-term observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We demonstrate that the major synoptic weather patterns of each season are among the dominant factors that affect AOD variations. During spring and autumn, AOD variability is significantly influenced by dynamic transport under northeasterly (winter monsoon) or southwesterly (summer monsoon) conditions. In summer, the maximum anomaly of the AOD variability was associated with the occurrence of fronts and tropical cyclones near Taiwan. While in winter, cold surge was the major event controlling the AOD variability. As atmospheric dynamics are well connected with AOD interannual variability, the AOD predictability over East Asia is associated with the predictability of synoptic weather systems. We apply the high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) to identify these weather systems in present climate and under future warming scenarios. Under future climate based on HiRAM, the occurrence of summer tropical cyclones decreases by 32%, and the autumn southwesterly pattern increases by 50%. Considering the frequency change in summer tropical cyclones and autumn southwestlies under future scenarios, this may lead to the accumulation of AOD over China during summer and autumn through dynamic transport. The results suggest that AOD variations in East Asia may change along with future changes in the large-scale circulation under global warming. • Transport under monsoons notably altered aerosol variability in spring and fall. • In summer, AOD variability was highly linked to fronts and cyclones near Taiwan. • Cold surge was the major event controlling the aerosol variability in winter. • The future change in event frequency may lead to aerosol accumulation over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vertical extinction profiles and columnar optical properties (optical depth, Angstrom exponent, lidar ratio, and particle depolarization) of aerosols were obtained by simultaneous measurements with a depolarization lidar and a sunphotometer at Taipei, Taiwan from February 2004 to January 2006. Columnar optical depths are high in Feb¿Apr (0.61¿0.75) by sunphotometer measurements. Lidar measurements show the contribution of aerosols in the free atmosphere on columnar optical depths are about 44¿50% in Feb¿Apr and about 26¿37% in other months. Back-trajectory analyses and depolarization measurements show almost all of non-spherical aerosols originated from Northwest China which indicate Asian dusts frequently transported to Taipei from dust source regions in the free atmosphere. Aerosols with depolarization lower than 5% are found mostly originated from South China or Southeast Asia. Good correlations between columnar lidar ratio, particle depolarization, and Angstrom exponent are found for cases that columnar water vapor less than 1.5 cm. The effect of water vapor on particle depolarization is briefly discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]