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TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wealthy schools appoint better qualified teachers, less wealthy schools under qualified teachers. Added to this mix is a powerful teacher’s union whose policies attempt to entrench the job security of teachers in the less wealthy schools irrespective of whether they can teach their subjects or not. Can one isolate these effects from that of other socio-demographic factors that may also be affecting the performance of students when they enrol for a degree at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN)? An outcome variable that subtracts the number of courses that have been failed from the number of courses that have been passed, dividing this by the total number of years that they have spent studying for a particular degree will be used as a response variable for this paper. Objectives: The system of secondary education in South Africa is highly polarized. On the one hand, we have a group of mainly Black African students, forming about 80% of the total student population, that come from a vastly under-resourced rural or township based community. On the other hand, we have a group of predominantly White and Indian students who are able to attend a far better resourced set of private schools. Added to this mix, we have 240,000 of South Africa’s total number of 390,000 primary and secondary school teachers who belong to a powerful teacher’s union which enjoys a strong political alliance with the ruling party in South Africa. With most of their union members teaching in the less wealthy schools in South Africa, `school background’ now includes a politically motivated component that focuses on teacher self–interest rather than the education of the child. What sort of effect does school background have on the performance of students when they enter an institution of higher learning? More importantly, can one isolate the effect of school background from that of other possibly confounding factors such as gender, financial aid and the receipt of some form of residence based accommodation that will also impact on their performance while at university? Method: A total of 6,183 students enrolling for a degree at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) over the period 2008 to 2012 were used a dataset for this study. Permission to use this dataset was given by the Teaching and Learning Office at UKZN. The database that was used for this study was obtained from the Division of Management Information (DMI) office at UKZN. The percentage based marks that students have managed to record for Mathematics, English, Biology and Accounting in their school leaving exams together with some other important but observable socio-economic factors were included in a regression model to determine how students will perform at UKZN. Socio-economic variables relating to gender, race and whether they have receivd some form of financial aid or residence based accommodation while studying at university were also included as predictor variables in our regression based model structure. Results and Conclusions: An interaction effect associated with being a Black African student who has been privileged enough to attend a quintile five school was found to be significant. A main effect associated with being able to attend a more privileged quintile 5 school however was found to be nonsignificant even after an adjustment has been made for gender, race, the receipt of some form of financial aid and residence based accommodation. Given that UKZN already has a number of bridging programs in place that target students who have come from a less privileged background, for university based policymakers, this result may help to justify the targeted selection of Black African students from the less privileged schools that is taking place. Because some of the disparity in matric performance that we are observing may also be associated with teacher competency and the protective influence of a powerful teacher’s union, this paper may also help to highlight some of the economic costs related with having under-prepared students. “A mind is a terrible thing to waste”–United Negro College Fund. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Violence against women by an intimate partner (DV) is a serious public health and human rights issue. Attitudes justifying DV strongly predict its perpetration and victimisation. This paper presents gendered ecological analyses of the societal acceptance of DV in 49 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across geographical regions. Methods and findings: We utilised data from 49 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017, United Nations Statistics and topic-specific meta-databases. DV acceptance was measured as the justification of ‘wife-beating’ in at least one of five circumstances, and by the summative scale. Stepwise multiple linear regression examined country-level social, economic and political empowerment predictors of societal acceptance of DV amongst women, men, and the aggregate gender difference. Women were more likely than men to justify DV in Sub-Saharan Africa and South (east) Asia with societal acceptance of DV being more widespread in these regions compared with Latin America, the Caribbean, Central/West Asia and Europe. Political conflict and limited economic rights for women were associated with higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and men. Men in more democratic countries were less likely to justify DV. Amongst women, higher national female literacy rates predicted lower levels of justification. There were higher levels of DV acceptance amongst women and a wider aggregate gender difference in countries with a larger representation of women in national parliament. Conclusion: Justification of DV is widespread amongst women and men in LMICs with acceptance rates varying across countries and regions. Gender differences in the impact of contextual factors on DV acceptance supports a gendered approach to national-level interventions. Our findings highlight the need for tailored interventions targeting DV acceptance in conflict-impacted societies. The emphasis of inter(national) policies on the ‘empowerment’ domains of widely-used gender (in)equality indices need to be coupled with strategies tackling discriminatory gender norms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, major global institutions have amplified their efforts to address intimate partner violence (IPV) against women—a global health and human rights violation affecting 15–71% of reproductive aged women over their lifetimes. Still, some scholars remain concerned about the validity of instruments used for IPV assessment in population-based studies. In this paper, we conducted two validation analyses using novel data from 450 women-men dyads across nine villages in Northern Tanzania. , we examined the level of inter-partner agreement in reporting of men’s physical, sexual, emotional and economic IPV against women in the last three and twelve months prior to the survey, ever in the relationship, and during pregnancy. , we conducted a convergent validity analysis to compare the relative efficacy of men’s self-reports of perpetration and women’s of victimization as a valid indicator of IPV against Tanzanian women using logistic regression models with village-level clustered errors. We found that, for every violence type across the recall periods of the last three months, the last twelve months and ever in the relationship, at least one in three couples disagreed about IPV occurrences in the relationship. Couples’ agreement about physical, sexual and economic IPV during pregnancy was high with 86–93% of couples reporting concordantly. Also, men’s self-reported perpetration had statistically significant associations with at least as many validated risk factors as had women’s self-reported victimization. This finding suggests that men’s self-reports are at least as valid as women’s as an indicator of IPV against women in Northern Tanzania. We recommend more validation studies are conducted in low-income countries, and that data on relationship factors affecting IPV reports and reporting are made available along with data on IPV occurrences. Keywords: Intimate partner violence; measurement; validity; survey research; Tanzania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population of Ghana is increasingly becoming urbanized with about 70% of the estimated 27 million people living in urban and peri-urban areas. Nonetheless, eight out of the ten regions in Ghana remain predominantly rural where only 32% of the national health sector workforce works. Moreover, the rural-urban disparities in the density of health tutors (staff responsible for pre-service training of health professionals) are enormous. This paper explores perceived needs of health tutors in rural and urban health training institutions in Ghana. Methods: This is a descriptive qualitative study conducted in the Greater Accra and Northern regions of Ghana. The Study used the deductive thematic and sub-thematic analysis approaches. Five health training institutions were randomly sampled, and 72 tutors engaged in separate focus group discussions with an average size of 14 participants per group in each training institution. Results: Perceived rural-urban disparities among health tutors were found in the payment of extra duty allowances; school infrastructure including libraries and internet connectivity; staff accommodation; and opportunities for scholarships and higher education. Health tutors in rural areas generally expressed more frustration with these work conditions than those in urban areas. Conclusions: There is the need to initiate and sustain work incentives that promote motivation of rural health tutors to control ongoing rural-urban migration of qualified staff. It is recommended the following incentives be prioritized to promote retention of qualified health tutors in rural health training schools: payment of research, book and rural allowances; early promotion of rural staff; prioritizing rural tutors for scholarships, and introduction of national best health tutor awards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The West African Ebola epidemic of 2013–2016 was by far the largest outbreak of the disease on record. Sierra Leone suffered nearly half of the 28,646 reported cases. This paper presents a set of culturally contextualized Ebola messages that are based on the findings of qualitative interviews and focus group discussions conducted in 'hotspot' areas of rural Bombali District and urban Freetown in Sierra Leone, between January and March 2015. An iterative approach was taken in the message development process, whereby (i) data from formative research was subjected to thematic analysis to identify areas of community concern about Ebola and the national response; (ii) draft messages to address these concerns were produced; (iii) the messages were field tested; (iv) the messages were refined; and (v) a final set of messages on 14 topics was disseminated to relevant national and international stakeholders. Each message included details of its rationale, audience, dissemination channels, messengers, and associated operational issues that need to be taken into account. While developing the 14 messages, a set of recommendations emerged that could be adopted in future public health emergencies. These included the importance of embedding systematic, iterative qualitative research fully into the message development process; communication of the subsequent messages through a two-way dialogue with communities, using trusted messengers, and not only through a one-way, top-down communication process; provision of good, parallel operational services; and engagement with senior policy makers and managers as well as people in key operational positions to ensure national ownership of the messages, and to maximize the chance of their being utilised. The methodological approach that we used to develop our messages along with our suggested recommendations constitute a set of tools that could be incorporated into international and national public health emergency preparedness and response plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are seen as a promising vehicle to achieve agricultural development impacts. By increasing collaboration, exchange of knowledge and influence mediation among farmers, researchers and other stakeholders, MSPs supposedly enhance their ‘capacity to innovate’ and contribute to the ‘scaling of innovations’. The objective of this paper is to explore the capacity to innovate and scaling potential of three MSPs in Burundi, Rwanda and the South Kivu province located in the eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In order to do this, we apply Social Network Analysis and Exponential Random Graph Modelling (ERGM) to investigate the structural properties of the collaborative, knowledge exchange and influence networks of these MSPs and compared them against value propositions derived from the innovation network literature. Results demonstrate a number of mismatches between collaboration, knowledge exchange and influence networks for effective innovation and scaling processes in all three countries: NGOs and private sector are respectively over- and under-represented in the MSP networks. Linkages between local and higher levels are weak, and influential organisations (e.g., high-level government actors) are often not part of the MSP or are not actively linked to by other organisations. Organisations with a central position in the knowledge network are more sought out for collaboration. The scaling of innovations is primarily between the same type of organisations across different administrative levels, but not between different types of organisations. The results illustrate the potential of Social Network Analysis and ERGMs to identify the strengths and limitations of MSPs in terms of achieving development impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is still unknown whether there is some deep structure to modern wars and terrorist campaigns that could, for example, enable reliable prediction of future patterns of violent events. Recent war research focuses on size distributions of violent events, with size defined by the number of people killed in each event. Event size distributions within previously available datasets, for both armed conflicts and for global terrorism as a whole, exhibit extraordinary regularities that transcend specifics of time and place. These distributions have been well modelled by a narrow range of power laws that are, in turn, supported by some theories of violent group dynamics. We show that the predicted event-size patterns emerge broadly in a mass of new event data covering all conflicts in the world from 1989 to 2016. Moreover, there are similar regularities in the events generated by individual terrorist organizations, 1998—2016. The existence of such robust empirical patterns hints at the predictability of size distributions of violent events in future wars. We pursue this prospect using split-sample techniques that help us to make useful out-of-sample predictions. Power-law-based prediction systems outperform lognormal-based systems. We conclude that there is indeed evidence from the existing data that fundamental patterns do exist, and that these can allow prediction of size distribution of events in modern wars and terrorist campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory experiments offer an opportunity to isolate human behaviors with a level of precision that is often difficult to obtain using other (survey-based) methods. Yet, experimental tasks are often stripped of any social context, implying that inferences may not directly map to real world contexts. We randomly allocate 632 individuals (grouped randomly into 316 dyads) from small villages in Sierra Leone to four versions of the ultimatum game. In addition to the classic ultimatum game, where both the sender and receiver are anonymous, we reveal the identity of the sender, the receiver or both. This design allows us to explore how fairness behavior is affected by social context in a natural setting where players are drawn from populations that are well-acquainted. We find that average offers increase when the receiver’s identity is revealed, suggesting that anonymous ultimatum games underestimate expected fair offers. This study suggest that researchers wishing to relate laboratory behavior to contexts in which the participants are well-acquainted should consider revealing the identities of the players during game play. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depression, one of the most common psychiatric disorders, is two- to three-times more prevalent in people living with HIV (PLHIV) than in the general population in many settings as shown in western countries but remains neglected in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to summarize the available evidence on the prevalence of depression and associated factors according to the scales used and the treatment status in PLHIV in SSA. The pooled prevalence estimates of depression ranged between 9% and 32% in PLHIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and in untreated or mixed (treated/untreated) ones, with a substantial variability according to the measurement scale used and also for a given scale. Low socio-economic conditions in PLHIV on ART, female sex and immunosuppression in mixed/untreated PLHIV were frequently reported as associated factors but with no consensus. As depression could have deleterious consequences on the PLHIV life, it is critical to encourage its screening and management, integrating these dimensions in HIV care throughout SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have examined the sustainability of family planning program outcomes in the post-program period. This article presents the results of a natural experiment where the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative Phase I programming ended in early 2015 and Phase II activities continued in a subset of cities. Using data collected in 2015 and 2017, we compare contraceptive ideation and modern family planning use in two cities: Ilorin where program activities concluded in 2015 and Kaduna where program activities continued. The results demonstrate that exposure to program activities decreased in Ilorin but for those individuals reporting continuing exposure, the effect size of exposure on modern family planning use remained the same and was not significantly different from Kaduna. Modern family planning use continued to increase in both cites but at a lower rate than during Phase I. The results are useful for designing family planning programs that sustain beyond the life of the program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Approximately 14 million unintended pregnancies are recorded annually in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We sought to investigate the prevalence and determinants of unintended pregnancies among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Materials and methods: The study pooled data from current Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016 from 29 countries in SSA. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the factors that influence unintended pregnancies in SSA. Results were presented using odds ratios (OR). Results: We found overall unintended pregnancy prevalence rate of 29%, ranging from 10.8% in Nigeria to 54.5% in Namibia. As compared to women aged 15–19 years, women of all other age categories had higher odds of unintended pregnancies. Married women were 6 times more probable to report unintended pregnancy as compared to women who had never married (OR = 6.29, CI = 5.65–7.01). The phenomenon had higher odds among rural residents as compared to urban residents (OR = 1.08, CI = 1.01–1.16). Women with primary (OR = 0.74, CI = 0.69–0.80) and secondary (OR = 0.71, CI = 0.65–0.77) levels of education had less chances of unintended pregnancies, compared to those with no education. Again, women in all other wealth categories had less probability of unintended pregnancy, as compared to women with poorest wealth status. Conclusion: Our study contributes substantially towards the discourse of maternal wellbeing by unveiling the prevalence and determinants of unintended pregnancy across the SSA region. There is the need for SSA countries with high prevalence of unintended pregnancies to consider past and present successful interventions of other countries within the region such as health education, counselling, skills-building, comprehensive sex education and access to contraception. Much of these efforts rest with the governments of SSA countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the challenging scientific problems faced by humanity. Topics discussed include information on the efforts to empower Africans to join the global neuroscience community; discussions on the BRAIN initiative in the U.S. and the Human Brain Project in Europe; and the information on the limiting factor for computational neuroscience development in Africa.

Iodine deficiency (ID) during pregnancy results in pregnancy losses, intrauterine growth retardation, and lower IQ in the offspring. Even after two decades of universal salt iodization (USI) implementation, the efficacy of USI has not been reported in high risk groups in vulnerable regions in Ghana. We aimed to assess and improve ID status in childbearing age women (all lactating women) and their toddlers in northern Ghana, a geographically and socioeconomically vulnerable region. We provided weekly supply of household iodized salt and community-based feeding of native Hibiscus Sabdariffaa leaves meal (HSM) prepared with iodized salt to women and their toddlers in intervention (n = 60) vs. control group (n = 60). At baseline, ID was prevalent in women (36%) and their toddlers (29%). For women, both median UIC values for intervention (57.4 ug/l) and control group (65.1 ug/l) were below the recommended UIC value of 100 ug/l with no significant differences between the two groups (p = 0.2778). At the endpoint, median UIC for the intervention group (123.6 ug/l) was significantly higher (p = 0.008) than the control group (59.7 ug/l). Our results suggest that weekly supply of iodized salt along with the feeding HSM is an effective channel for improving iodine status of economically disadvantaged groups in communities remote from coastal lands. Furthermore, our results suggest that decreased median UIC among lactating mothers does not necessarily imply lower iodine status for their breastfed toddlers. And finally, the observed median UIC<100 ug/l may point to a non-improvement in iodine status for the past decade for Ghana. There is a need to revisit, assess, and ascertain the challenges in preventing populations from attaining the intended benefits of the USI policy in Ghana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between school attendance and HIV incidence among young women in South Africa. Our aim is to distinguish a causal effect from correlation. Towards this end, we apply three methods to population-based longitudinal data for 2005–2012 in KwaZulu-Natal. After establishing a negative association, we first use a method that assesses the influence of omitted variables. We then estimate models with exclusion restrictions to remove endogeneity bias, and finally we estimate models that control for unobserved factors that remain constant over time. All the three methods have strengths and weaknesses, but none of them suggests a causal effect. Thus, interventions that increase school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would probably not mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Although the impact of school attendance could vary depending on context, unobserved variables are likely to be an important reason for the common finding of a negative association between school attendance and HIV incidence in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria continues to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) is one of the cost-effective interventions for preventing malaria in endemic settings. Ghana has made tremendous efforts to ensure widespread ownership and use of ITNs. However, national coverage statistics can mask important inequities that demand targeted attention. This study assesses the disparities in ownership and utilization of ITNs among reproductive-aged women in a rural impoverished setting of Ghana. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional data of 3,993 women between the age of 15 and 49 years were collected in seven districts of the Upper East region of Ghana using a two-stage cluster sampling approach. Bivariate and multivariate regression models were used to assess the social, economic and demographic disparities in ownership and utilization of ITN and to compare utilization rates among women in households owning at least one ITN. Results: As high as 79% of respondents were found to own ITN while 62% of ITN owners used them the night preceding the survey. We identified disparities in both ownership and utilization of ITNs in wealth index, occupational status, religion, and district of residence. Respondents in the relative richest wealth quintile were 74% more likely to own ITNs compared to those in the poorest quintile (p-value< 0.001, CI = 1.29–2.34) however, they were 33% less likely to use ITNs compared to the poorest (p-value = 0.01, CI = 0.50–0.91). Conclusion: Interventions aimed at preventing and controlling malaria through the use of bed nets in rural Ghana and other similar settings should give more attention to disadvantage populations such as the poor and unemployed. Tailored massages and educational campaigns are required to ensure consistent use of treated bed nets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Long acting reversible and permanent contraception (LARPs) offer promising opportunities for addressing the high and growing unmet need for modern contraception and helps to reduce unintended pregnancies and abortion rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study examines the contextual factors that influence the use of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married and fecund women in Ethiopia. Method: We use data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey to examine the contextual factors that influence choice of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married, non-pregnant and fecund women. The DHS collects detailed information on individual and household characteristics, contraception, and related reproductive behaviors from women of reproductive age. In addition, we created cluster level variables by aggregating individual level data to the cluster level. Analysis was done using a two-level multilevel logistic regression with data from 6994 married (weighted = 7352) women residing in 642 clusters (communities). Results: In 2016, 12% of married, non-pregnant and ‘fecund’ women were using long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception in Ethiopia. A higher proportion of women with secondary and above education (17.6%), urban residents (19.7%), in the richest wealth quintile (18.3%) and in paid employment (18.3%) were using LARP methods compared to their counterparts. Regression analysis showed that community level variables such as women’s empowerment, access to family planning information and services, region of residence and knowledge of methods were significantly associated with use of LARP methods. Age, wealth status, employment status and women’s fertility preferences were among the individual and household level variables associated with choice of LARP methods. With regards to age, the odds of using LARP methods was significantly lower among adolescents (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32–0.85) and women over the age of 40 (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44–0.90) compared to women in their 20’s. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that the demand for long-acting reversible and permanent contraception is influenced not only by women’s individual and household characteristics but also by the community’s level of women’s empowerment, socio-economic development, as well as access and exposure to family planning information and services. Thus, improving knowledge of long-acting reversible and permanent methods, improving women’s decision making autonomy and upgrading the capacity and skills of health workers particularly the midlevel providers and community health extension workers on the provision of LARP methods and rights-based approach is important to improve the uptake of LARP methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The objectives of this study was to investigate and compare levels of acceptability of pre-marital HIV testing; and intention to sero-sort future marital and its associated factors among unmarried adults in two cities in Cameroon. Methods: A population-based survey was conducted simultaneously in the cities of Kumba and Buea, located in the Southwest region of Cameroon. Data were collected from September to October 2016 by trained interviewers who administered questionnaires to eligible and consenting unmarried adults aged 21–35 years. Data were weighted and logistic regression analyses performed to identify significant predictors. The level of statistical significance was set at p< = 0.05. Results: A total of 1,406 respondents (767 in Kumba and 639 in Buea) participated in the study. In the pooled sample, the median age of respondents was 26 years (IQR = 23–29) and over half (54.8%) were males. Over 90% of respondents in both cities indicated their willingness to accept pre-marital HIV testing. Respondents who had previously tested for HIV in Kumba (AOR = 7.87; 95%CI, 4.02–15.44) were significantly more likely to accept premarital HIV testing than those who had never tested for HIV. In Kumba, older age (AOR = 0.42; 95%CI, 0.18–0.96) and those unemployed (AOR = 0.22; 95% CI, 0.06–0.76) were significantly less likely to accept pre-marital HIV testing. In Buea males (AOR = 0.64 95% CI, 0.45–0.89) who would test HIV negative would be significantly less likely to accept to marry an HIV positive partner. In Buea, respondents who indicated a moderate risk of contracting HIV (AOR = 1.71; 95%CI, 1.09–2.66, p = 0.018) were significantly more likely to accept to marry an HIV positive partner. The major limitation of the study was that a hypothetical situation was used to ask respondents about their willingness to accept pre-marital HIV testing rather than actual HIV test acceptance. Conclusions: Most respondents expressed their willingness to undergo pre-marital HIV testing. However, majority of respondents who would test HIV negative would refuse to marry their partner who tests HIV positive. These findings suggest that interventions to reduce HIV infection and fight against stigma and discrimination should be reinforced at community level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Howiesons Poort (HP) sites, over the past decades, have provided exceptional access to anthropogenic remains that are enhancing our understanding of early modern human behaviour during the Middle Stone Age in southern Africa. Here, we analyse the technological and typological trends in the lithic record that form part of these behaviours, based on the HP sequence recently excavated at Klipdrift Shelter, located on the southern Cape coast of South Africa. This study contributes to enhance knowledge on the mechanisms of changes that occurred during the transition to the post-HP. Despite patterns of continuity observed, notably for core reduction methods, the seven successive lithic assemblages show significant changes in the typological characteristics and raw material selection but also in the relative importance of blade production over time. However, these changes are not necessarily synchronic and occur either as gradual processes or as abrupt technological shifts. Consequently, we cross-examine the association between the lithic phasing and other anthropogenic remains within the HP sequence at Klipdrift Shelter. We explore the implications of these patterns of changes in terms of cultural behaviours and population dynamics during the HP and we highlight the relationship between the different phases of the HP sequence at Klipdrift Shelter and those from other South African HP sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The environmental and health impacts of reliance on solid fuels and traditional cookstoves in low-income countries have motivated the promotion of household cooking energy systems that use cleaner burning fuels and cookstoves that lead to reduced exposure to harmful pollutants. Little is known about adoption and use of such systems from the users’ perspective. Methods: We explored the facilitators and barriers to adoption and use of a private sector marketed household cooking energy system that uses sustainably produced biomass pellets and the cleanest burning fan micro-gasification stove currently available. We conducted 48 in-depth qualitative interviews in Gisenyi, Rwanda with decision-makers and cooks in 16 households that adopted the improved cookstove system and 8 non-adopter households. Results: Reported facilitators and barriers to adoption and non-adoption, as well as use and non-use were complex, and in some cases, contradictory. Some adopters noted that cleanliness and low smoke production were major facilitators to adoption and use, while other adopters and non-adopters said the cookstoves blackened and damaged cooking pots and produced excessive smoke. Our findings suggest that correct use of the stove mediates user experience. Cost was likewise reported as a facilitator among some adopters and a barrier among other adopters and non-adopters. Peer influence played a significant role as both a barrier and a facilitator to adoption and transcended other factors. Positive peer influence describing the cleanliness, affordability, and efficiency of the cookstove system encouraged adoption and use, while negative comments by peers regarding excessive smoke and damaged cooking pots discouraged adoption. Commentaries by some participants suggest that inadequate training and instruction may be primary causes of the discrepancies. Conclusion: Cost, cleanliness, communication among peer networks, and adequate training and instruction are important factors associated with the adoption and use of improved cookstoves and should be prioritized in the implementation of improved cookstove programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Introduction of contraceptive vaginal rings (CVRs) could expand the contraceptive method mix reducing the unmet need for family planning in Rwanda, but data on acceptability of CVRs from low and middle-income countries are lacking. Methods: This study explores acceptability of contraceptive vaginal ring (NuvaRing) use in Kigali, Rwanda using a mixed methods approach. We collected quantitative and qualitative data before, during and after conducting a clinical trial, using Case Report Forms, Interviewer Administered Questionnaires, In Depth Interviews and Focus Group Discussions. We analyzed the data using an existing theoretical framework including product attributes, relationship attributes and sexual encounter attributes as well as the contextual environment. Results: Our data showed that initial worries reduced over time with actual ring use and ring insertions and removals were described as easy. Most women did not feel the ring during daily activities, appreciated the lack of perceived negative side effects and the increased lubrication. Relationship attributes and sexual encounter attributes such as sexual comfort played a significant role in ring acceptability of the participants and their partners. The contextual environment including Rwandan cultural norms around sexuality positively influenced the acceptance of the NuvaRing. Overall satisfaction was high. Conclusions: Acceptability of the Nuvaring was high among study participants and represents a promising option that could contribute to lowering the unmet need for family planning in Rwanda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: School dropout has been linked to early pregnancy and marriage but less is known about the effect of school performance. We aimed to assess whether school performance influenced age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage, and from what age school drop-out and performance were associated with these later life events. Methods: Data from 2007–2016 from a demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi with annual updating of schooling status and grades, and linked sexual behaviour surveys, were analysed to assess the associations of age-specific school performance (measured as age-for-grade) and status (in or out of school) on subsequent age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. Landmark analysis with Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage by schooling at selected (landmark) ages, controlling for socio-economic factors. Results: Information on at least one outcome was available for >16,000 children seen at ages 10–18. Sexual debut was available on a subset aged ≥15 by 2011. For girls, being out of school was strongly associated with earlier sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. For example, using schooling status at age 14, compared to girls in primary, those who had dropped out had adjusted hazard ratios of subsequent sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage of 5.39 (95% CI 3.27–8.86), 2.39 (1.82–3.12), and 2.76 (2.08–3.67) respectively. For boys, the equivalent association with sexual debut was weak, 1.92 (0.81–4.55), but that with marriage was strong, 3.74 (2.28–6.11), although boys married later. Being overage-for-grade was not associated with sexual debut for girls or boys. For girls, being overage-for-grade from age 10 was associated with earlier pregnancy and marriage (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.84 (1.32–6.17) for pregnancy and 3.19 (1.47–6.94) for marriage, for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 10). For boys, overage-for-grade was associated with earlier marriage from age 12, with stronger associations at older ages (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.41 (1.56–3.70) for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 14). For girls ≥3 years overage at age 14, 39% were pregnant before they were 18, compared to 18% of those who were on track. The main limitation was the use of reported ages of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. Conclusions: School progression at ages as young as 10 can predict teenage pregnancy and marriage, even after adjusting for socio-economic factors. Early education interventions may reduce teenage pregnancy and marriage as well as improving learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Childhood traumas, in the form of physical, sexual, and emotional abuse and neglect, are globally widespread and highly prevalent, and associated with a range of subsequent poor health outcomes. This study sought to understand the relationship between physical, sexual and emotional childhood abuse and subsequent HIV-risk behaviours amongst young people (18–30) living in urban informal settlements in Durban, South Africa. Data came from self-completed questionnaires amongst 680 women and 677 men comprising the baseline of the Stepping Stones and Creating Futures intervention trial. Men and women were analysed separately. Logistic regression models assessed the relationship between six HIV-risk behaviours and four measures of trauma: the form of trauma, the severity of each trauma, the range of traumas, and overall severity of childhood trauma. Childhood traumas were incredibly prevalent in this population. All childhood traumas were associated with a range of HIV-risk behaviours. This was for the ever/never trauma, as well as the severity of each type of trauma, the range of trauma, and overall severity of childhood trauma. Despite the wider harsh contexts of urban informal settlements, childhood traumas still play a significant role in shaping subsequent HIV-risk behaviours amongst young people. Interventions to reduce childhood traumas for populations in informal settlements need to be developed. In addition, trauma focused therapies need to be considered as part of wider HIV-prevention interventions for young adults. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood and adolescent depression is common and often persists into adulthood with negative implications for school performances, peer relationship and behavioural functioning. The Child Depression Inventory (CDI) has been used to assess depression among adolescents in many countries including Nigeria but it is uncertain if the theoretical structure of CDI appropriately fits the experiences of adolescents in Nigeria. This study assessed varying theoretical modelling structure of the CDI in a population of apparently healthy adolescents in Benue state, Nigeria. Methods: Data was extracted on CDI scale and demographic information from a total of 1, 963 adolescents (aged 10–19 years), who participated in a state wide study assessing adolescent psychosocial functioning. In addition to descriptive statistics and reliability tests, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor analysis (CFA) were used to model the underlying factor structure and its adequacy. The suggested new model was compared with existing CDI models as well as the CDI’s original theoretical model. A model is considered better, if it has minimum Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA<0.05), Minimum value of Discrepancy (CMIN/DF<3.0) and Akaike information criteria. All analyses were performed at 95% confidence level, using the version 21 of AMOS and the R software. Results: Participants were 14.7±2.1 years and mostly male (54.3%), from Monogamous homes (67.9%) and lived in urban areas (52.2%). The measure of the overall internal consistency of the 2-factor CDI was α = 0.84. The 2-factor model had the minimum RMSEA (0.044), CMIN/DF (2.87) and least AIC (1037.996) compared to the other five CDI models. Conclusion: The child depression inventory has a 2-factor structure in a non-clinical general population of adolescents in Nigeria. Future use of the CDI in related setting may consider the 2-factor model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comparative analysis of world music cultures has been the focus of several ethnomusicological studies in the last century. With the advances of Music Information Retrieval and the increased accessibility of sound archives, large-scale analysis of world music with computational tools is today feasible. We investigate music similarity in a corpus of 8200 recordings of folk and traditional music from 137 countries around the world. In particular, we aim to identify music recordings that are most distinct compared to the rest of our corpus. We refer to these recordings as ‘outliers’. We use signal processing tools to extract music information from audio recordings, data mining to quantify similarity and detect outliers, and spatial statistics to account for geographical correlation. Our findings suggest that Botswana is the country with the most distinct recordings in the corpus and China is the country with the most distinct recordings when considering spatial correlation. Our analysis includes a comparison of musical attributes and styles that contribute to the ‘uniqueness’ of the music of each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tungiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by female sand fleas (Tunga penetrans) embedded in the skin. The disease is associated with important morbidity. Tungiasis is endemic along the Coast of Kenya with a prevalence ranging from 11% to 50% in school-age children. Hitherto, studies on epidemiological characteristics of tungiasis in Africa are scanty. Methods: In a cross-sectional study 1,086 individuals from 233 households in eight villages located in Kakuyuni and Malanga Sub-locations, Kilifi County, on the Kenyan Coast, were investigated. Study participants were examined systematically and the presence and severity of tungiasis were determined using standard methods. Demographic, socio-economic, environmental and behavioral risk factors of tungiasis were assessed using a structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate regression analysis. Results: The overall prevalence of tungiasis was 25.0% (95% CI 22.4–27.5%). Age-specific prevalence followed an S-shaped curve, peaking in the under-15 year old group. In 42.5% of the households at least one individual had tungiasis. 15.1% of patients were severely infected (≥ 30 lesions). In the bivariate analysis no specific animal species was identified as a risk factor for tungiasis. Multivariate analysis showed that the occurrence of tungiasis was related to living in a house with poor construction characteristics, such as mud walls (OR 3.35; 95% CI 1.71–6.58), sleeping directly on the floor (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.03–2.74), the number of people per sleeping room (OR = 1.77; 95% CI 1.07–2.93) and washing the body without soap (OR = 7.36; 95% CI 3.08–17.62). The odds of having severe tungiasis were high in males (OR 2.29; 95% CI 1.18–44.6) and were very high when only mud puddles were available as a water source and lack of water permitted washing only once a day (OR 25.48 (95% CI 3.50–185.67) and OR 2.23 (95% CI 1.11–4.51), respectively). Conclusions: The results of this study show that in rural Kenya characteristics of poverty determine the occurrence and the severity of tungiasis. Intra-domiciliary transmission seems to occur regularly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Madagascar conducted the first two phases of a national free mass distribution campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) during a political crisis in 2009 aiming to achieve coverage of two LLINs per household as part of the National Malaria Control Strategy. The campaign targeted households in 19 out of 91 total health districts. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional household survey using a three-stage cluster sample design was conducted four months post campaign to assess LLIN ownership, access and use. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with household LLIN access and individual LLIN use. Results: A total of 2211 households were surveyed representing 8867 people. At least one LLIN was present in 93.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.6–95.5%) of households and 74.8% (95% CI, 71.0–78.6%) owned at least two LLINs. Access measured as the proportion of the population that could potentially be covered by household-owned LLINs was 77.2% (77.2% (95% CI, 72.9–81.3%) and LLIN use by all individuals was 84.2% (95% CI, 81.2–87.2%). LLIN use was associated with knowledge of insecticide treated net use to prevent malaria (OR = 3.58, 95% CI, 1.85–6.94), household ownership of more LLINs (OR 2.82, 95% CI 1.85–4.3), presence of children under five (OR = 2.05, 95% CI, 1.67–2.51), having traveled to the distribution point and receiving information about hanging a bednet (OR = 1.56, 95% CI, 1.41–1.74), and having received a post-campaign visit by a community mobilizer (OR = 1.75, 95% CI, 1.26–2.43). Lower LLIN use was associated with increasing household size (OR = 0.81 95% CI 0.77–0.85) and number of sleeping spaces (OR = 0.55, 95% CI, 0.44–0.68). Conclusions: A large scale free mass LLIN distribution campaign was feasible and effective at achieving high LLIN access and use in Madagascar. Campaign process indicators highlighted potential areas for strengthening implementation to optimize access and equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Podoconiosis (mossy foot) is a neglected non-filarial elephantiasis considered to be caused by predisposition to cumulative contact of uncovered feet to irritative red clay soil of volcanic origins in the tropical regions. Data from structured observational studies on occurrence of Podoconiosis and related factors are not available in Kenya. Methodology/Principal findings: To establish the occurrence and aspects associated with Podoconiosis, a cross-sectional survey was implemented in an area located within 30 km from the foot of volcanic Mount Longonot in the Great Rift Valley in Kenya. Five villages and 385 households were selected using multistage and systematic random sampling procedures respectively during the survey. Podoconiosis was determined by triangulating (1) the clinical diagnosis, (2) molecular assaying of sputum samples to rule out Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaria and (3) determining the concentration of six elements and properties in the soil known to be associated with Podoconiosis. A structured questionnaire was used to identify possible risk factors. Univariable and multivariable Poisson regression analyses were carried out to determine factors associated with Podoconiosis. Thirteen participants were clinically positive for Podoconiosis giving an overall prevalence of 3.4%. The prevalence ranged between 0% and 18.8% across the five villages. Molecular assay for W. bancrofti test turned negative in the 13 samples. The following factors were positively associated with the Podoconiosis prevalence (P<0.1) in the univariable analyses: (i) age, (ii) gender, (iii) education level, (iv) frequency of washing legs, (v) frequency of wearing shoes, (vi) soil pH, and (vii) village. Unexpectedly, the concentration of soil minerals previously thought to be associated with Podoconiosis was found to be negatively associated with the Podoconiosis prevalence (P<0.1). In the multivariable analyses, only frequency of wearing shoes and village turned out significant (P≤0.05). By modeling the different soil mineral concentrations and pH while adjusting for the variable frequency of wearing shoes, only iron concentration was significant and in the negative dimension (P≤0.05). However, controlling for Iron, Aluminum concentrations turned significant. Conclusion/Significance: This study has pointed to a hitherto unreported occurrence of Podoconiosis cases and has contributed to the baseline knowledge on the occurrence of Podoconiosis in Kenya. Consistent with many studies, wearing shoes remain an important risk factor for the occurrence of the disease. However, our findings are inconsistent with some of the hitherto postulations that associate Podoconiosis prevalence with certain minerals in the soil in other regions in Africa. These findings provide new beginnings for the cross-disciplinary research of Podoconiosis in environmental health, socio-ecology and ecological niche and geo-spatial modeling and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Esperanza Window Trap (EWT) baited with CO2 and human sweat compounds is attractive to Simulium ochraceum s.l., the primary vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the historically largest endemic foci in México and Guatemala. Methodology/Principal findings: The ability of the EWT to locally reduce numbers of questing S. ochraceum s.l. was evaluated in two formerly onchocerciasis endemic communities in Southern México. At each community, two EWTs were placed in or near a school or household and flies were collected sequentially for a total of 10 days. Black fly collections were then carried out for an additional 10 days in the absence of the EWTs. Flies were also collected outside the dwellings to control for variations in the local fly populations. When the EWTs were present, there was a significant reduction in the human biting rate at both the household and school locations at collection sites, with a greater effect observed in the schools. Conclusions/Significance: These results indicate that the EWTs not only have potential as a black fly monitoring tool but may be used for reducing personal exposure to fly bites in Mesoamerica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the first results from archaeological investigations at Wadi el-Sheikh in Egypt by the University of Vienna Middle Egypt Project. Chert was an important raw material used to produce tools, implements and jewelry in ancient times. Wadi el-Sheikh was exploited over thousands of years as it was probably the most important source of chert in Pharaonic civilization. The results of our new investigations that involved surveys and test excavations indicate the presence of large scale mining activities in the first half of the 3rd Millennium B.C.E. which allow for detailed insights into the amount of raw material extracted, the mining methods used and the lithic products manufactured in this area. These aspects are contextualized on the background of ancient Egyptian state-organized resource acquisition strategies and economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onslaught on the World’s wildlife continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. We build a model that integrates rhino horn trade with rhino population dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of various management policies on rhino sustainability. In our model, an agent-based sub-model of horn trade from the poaching event up through a purchase of rhino horn in Asia impacts rhino abundance. A data-validated, individual-based sub-model of the rhino population of South Africa provides these abundance values. We evaluate policies that consist of different combinations of legal trade initiatives, demand reduction marketing campaigns, increased anti-poaching measures within protected areas, and transnational policing initiatives aimed at disrupting those criminal syndicates engaged in horn trafficking. Simulation runs of our model over the next 35 years produces a sustainable rhino population under only one management policy. This policy includes both a transnational policing effort aimed at dismantling those criminal networks engaged in rhino horn trafficking—coupled with increases in legal economic opportunities for people living next to protected areas where rhinos live. This multi-faceted approach should be the focus of the international debate on strategies to combat the current slaughter of rhino rather than the binary debate about whether rhino horn trade should be legalized. This approach to the evaluation of wildlife management policies may be useful to apply to other species threatened by wildlife trafficking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The work reported here assesses the coverage achieved by two sales-based approaches to distributing a complementary food supplement (KOKO Plus™) to infants and young children in Ghana. Delivery Model 1 was conducted in the Northern Region of Ghana and used a mixture of health extension workers (delivering behavior change communications and demand creation activities at primary healthcare centers and in the community) and petty traders recruited from among beneficiaries of a local microfinance initiative (responsible for the sale of the complementary food supplement at market stalls and house to house). Delivery Model 2 was conducted in the Eastern Region of Ghana and used a market-based approach, with the product being sold through micro-retail routes (i.e., small shops and roadside stalls) in three districts supported by behavior change communications and demand creation activities led by a local social marketing company. Both delivery models were implemented sub-nationally as 1-year pilot programs, with the aim of informing the design of a scaled-up program. A series of cross-sectional coverage surveys was implemented in each program area. Results from these surveys show that Delivery Model 1 was successful in achieving and sustaining high (i.e., 86%) effective coverage (i.e., the child had been given the product at least once in the previous 7 days) during implementation. Effective coverage fell to 62% within 3 months of the behavior change communications and demand creation activities stopping. Delivery Model 2 was successful in raising awareness of the product (i.e., 90% message coverage), but effective coverage was low (i.e., 9.4%). Future programming efforts should use the health extension / microfinance / petty trader approach in rural settings and consider adapting this approach for use in urban and peri-urban settings. Ongoing behavior change communications and demand creation activities is likely to be essential to the continued success of such programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a condition with high fatality. Though the disease is deadly, taking precautions to reduce contact with infected people and their secretions can prevent cross- infection. In the 2014 EVD outbreak, socio-cultural factors were identified to be responsible for the spread of the disease in the three most affected countries in West Africa. In this light, we undertook this study to identify socio-cultural factors that may influence the prevention and containment of EVD in Ghana and ways to address such practices. Methods: We conducted a descriptive qualitative study in five regions in Ghana. Twenty-five focus group discussions (5 in each region) with community members (4 in each region) and nurses (1 in each region) were conducted. In addition, forty (40) in-depth interviews were conducted with various stakeholders and opinion leaders; eight in each region. All interviews were recorded using a digital voice recorder and transcribed. With the aid of Nvivo 10 for windows, we analyzed the data using framework analysis. Results: We found that socio-cultural practices, such as care of the body of dead and burial practices, widowhood rites and anointing children with water used to rinse the dead, were common. These practices require individuals coming into direct contact with either the dead or items used to take care of the dead. Social norms also require frequent handshakes in all social gatherings such as funeral, and religious congregations. We also found that self-medication (using herbs and orthodox medications) was a common practice. People use both biomedical and non-orthodox health outlets either simultaneously or in sequence in times of ill-health. Conclusion: The study concludes that high risk socio-cultural practices were common among Ghanaians and generally perceived as indispensable. These high risk practices may hinder containment efforts in the event of an outbreak. Community leaders should be engaged in any social mobilization to modify these practices as part of preparation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) risk prediction models are used to compare outcomes for quality improvement initiatives, benchmarking, and research. While such models provide robust tools in high-income countries, an ICU risk prediction model has not been validated in a low-income country where ICU population characteristics are different from those in high-income countries, and where laboratory-based patient data are often unavailable. We sought to validate the Mortality Probability Admission Model, version III (MPM0-III) in two public ICUs in Rwanda and to develop a new Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM) for use in low-income countries. Methods: We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to Rwanda’s two public ICUs between August 19, 2013 and October 6, 2014. We described demographic and presenting characteristics and outcomes. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MPM0-III model. Using stepwise selection, we developed a new logistic model for risk prediction, the R-MPM, and used bootstrapping techniques to test for optimism in the model. Results: Among 427 consecutive adults, the median age was 34 (IQR 25–47) years and mortality was 48.7%. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 85.3%, and 41.9% received vasopressors. The MPM0-III predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.024. We developed a new model using five variables: age, suspected or confirmed infection within 24 hours of ICU admission, hypotension or shock as a reason for ICU admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score at ICU admission, and heart rate at ICU admission. Using these five variables, the R-MPM predicted outcomes with area under the ROC curve of 0.81 with 95% confidence interval of (0.77, 0.86), and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.154. Conclusions: The MPM0-III has modest ability to predict mortality in a population of Rwandan ICU patients. The R-MPM is an alternative risk prediction model with fewer variables and better predictive power. If validated in other critically ill patients in a broad range of settings, the model has the potential to improve the reliability of comparisons used for critical care research and quality improvement initiatives in low-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]