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This paper provides a statistical methodology for quantifying causality in complex dynamical systems, based on analysis of multidimensional time series data of the state variables. The methodology integrates Granger’s causality analysis based on the log-likelihood function expansion (Partial pair-wise causality), and Akaike’s power contribution approach over the whole frequency domain (Total causality). The proposed methodology addresses a major drawback of existing methodologies namely, their inability to use time series observation of state variables to quantify causality in complex systems. We first perform a simulation study to verify the efficacy of the methodology using data generated by several multivariate autoregressive processes, and its sensitivity to data sample size. We demonstrate application of the methodology to real data by deriving inter-species relationships that define key food web drivers of the Barents Sea ecosystem. Our results show that the proposed methodology is a useful tool in early stage causality analysis of complex feedback systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an approach to three-dimensional source tracking in an uncertain ocean environment using a horizontal line array (HLA). The tracking algorithm combines matched-field focalization for environmental (seabed and water column) and source-bearing model parameters with the Viterbi algorithm for range-depth estimation and includes physical constraints on source velocity. The ability to track a source despite environmental uncertainty is examined using synthetic test cases for various track geometries and with varying degrees of prior information for environmental parameters. Performance is evaluated for a range of signal-to-noise ratios in terms of the probability of estimating a track within acceptable position/depth errors. The algorithm substantially outperforms tracking with poor environmental estimates and generally obtains results close to those obtained with exact environmental knowledge. The approach is also applied to measured narrowband data recorded on a bottom-moored HLA in shallow water (the Barents Sea) and shown to successfully track both a towed submerged source and a surface ship in cases where simpler tracking algorithms failed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

n experiment that allowed constructing a pattern of mode signals radiated by a point source at the distances of 7 and 10 km has been staged in the Barents Sea. The image of mode signals focused by time reversal is obtained in the mode number-group delay coordinates. The used algorithm is based on the coincidence of frequency characteristics of modes of a real waveguide and an ideal waveguide in a shallow sea. A mechanism of the phenomenon that explains the observed results is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guttormsen, M. A. and Wilson, C. D. 2009. In situ measurements of capelin (Mallotus villosus) target strength in the North Pacific Ocean. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 258–263.In situ measurements of capelin (Mallotus villosus) target strength (TS) were collected during summer 2001–2003 near Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska, using a calibrated EK500 echosounder with 38 and 120 kHz split-beam transducers. Targets were detected over dispersed, night-time aggregations using standard acoustic methods, then filtered using a quality-control algorithm to reject invalid targets. The 38 kHz-based, fitted model estimate was TS = 20 log10L− 70.3 (r2 = 0.30), where L is total length of fish. Compared with other studies, the TS-fitted model at 38 kHz was similar to that calculated from swimbladder morphology measurements from St Lawrence estuary capelin (TS = 20 log10L− 69.3), but resulted in greater estimates than models based on in situ measurements of capelin TS in the Barents Sea (TS = 19.1 log10L−74.0) and northern Atlantic Ocean (TS = 20 log10L − 73.1). The large intraspecific variability exhibited in the fitted TS – L models for this species suggests the use of TS measurements from the geographic region where the data were collected. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BARENTS50, a new 3-D geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea Region has been developed by the University of Oslo, NORSAR and the U.S. Geological Survey. The target region comprises northern Norway and Finland, parts of the Kola Peninsula and the East European lowlands. Novaya Zemlya, the Kara Sea and Franz-Josef Land terminate the region to the east, while the Norwegian-Greenland Sea marks the western boundary. In total, 680 1-D seismic velocity profiles were compiled, mostly by sampling 2-D seismic velocity transects, from seismic refraction profiles. Seismic reflection data in the western Barents Sea were further used for density modelling and subsequent density-to-velocity conversion. Velocities from these profiles were binned into two sedimentary and three crystalline crustal layers. The first step of the compilation comprised the layer-wise interpolation of the velocities and thicknesses. Within the different geological provinces of the study region, linear relationships between the thickness of the sedimentary rocks and the thickness of the remaining crystalline crust are observed. We therefore, used the separately compiled (area-wide) sediment thickness data to adjust the total crystalline crustal thickness according to the total sedimentary thickness where no constraints from 1-D velocity profiles existed. The BARENTS50 model is based on an equidistant hexagonal grid with a node spacing of 50 km. The P-wave velocity model was used for gravity modelling to obtain 3-D density structure. A better fit to the observed gravity was achieved using a grid search algorithm which focussed on the density contrast of the sediment-basement interface. An improvement compared to older geophysical models is the high resolution of 50 km. Velocity transects through the 3-D model illustrate geological features of the European Arctic. The possible petrology of the crystalline basement in western and eastern Barents Sea is discussed on the basis of the observed seismic velocity structure. The BARENTS50 model is available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]