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This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Keriya River Basin was chosen as the study site in this paper in order to investigate the suitable scales of natural and artificial oases with a certain water resource quantity. A calculation model was constructed and the suitable scales of natural and artificial oases were analyzed using remote sensing images, water resources, weather and socioeconomic data. The results showed that (1) high- and low-flow variations were apparent for the Keriya River. The mean values for the high-flow period, normal flow period and low-flow period were 9.23 × 10 m, 7.177 × 10 m and 5.741 × 10 m, respectively. (2) The ecological water demand of natural oasis in the lower reaches of the Keriya River Basin was 2.561 × 10 m. (3) In the Tarim Basin, the proportion of natural and artificial oases was 6:4. (4) In the middle reaches, after guaranteeing the unchangeable scale of artificial oases, the most suitable size of a natural oasis was 798-1,157 km. Under the reasonable proportion (i.e. proportion of 6:4 for the natural and artificial oases), the respective suitable scales of natural and artificial oases in the middle reaches were 831-1,003 km and 554-669 km. This study constructed a model for calculating the suitable scale of an oasis, verified the suitable proportions of natural and artificial oases and discussed the reasonable scales of oases in order to provide a new theoretical basis for determining reasonable development planning in similar river basins located in extremely arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Grassland degradation is the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. • The carbon storage of farmland has increased significantly. • The risk of carbon storage reduction in the future is still high. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological response to climate change in the Tarim River Basin was investigated by analysing the hydrological, temperature and precipitation data of the past 50 years. The long-term trend of the hydrological time-series, including air temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, was examined by using both parametric and non-parametric techniques and the plausible association between streamflow and climate change by the method of grey correlation analysis. The results show that the study area became warmer in the last few decades. The air temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase by 5%; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s and then a major increase in the 1980s and 1990s, with average annual precipitation up by 6-8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation around 1986, with mean temperature and precipitation increasing from 67°C and 146 mm before 1986 to 7.3°C and 180 mm respectively after 1986. The temperature has risen by nearly 1 °C over the past 50 years, possibly resulting from the impact of global climate change. Streamflows in the Aksu River and the Yarkant River have shown a significant (P < 0.05) tendency of increase. This is particularly the case for the Aksu River. The coefficients of streamflow increase in the Aksu and Yarkant Rivers are 0.41 and 0.13 respectively. The results of grey correlation analysis show that in the Aksu River, which is located in the northwest of the basin, the impact of precipitation on streamflow is much greater than that of temperature. However, in the Hotan River, which is located in the southwest of the basin, the impact of temperature on streamflow is much greater than that of precipitation. This is likely to be related to the geographic distribution of the headstreams of the rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In arid areas, lakes play important roles in sustaining the local ecology, mitigating flood hazard, and restricting economic activity of society. In this study, we used multi-temporal satellite data to study annual variations in 16 natural lakes with individual surface areas over 10 km2, categorized into six regions based on their geographical and climatic information and on their relations with climate variables. Results indicated that annual variations in lake surface areas are different across these six regions. The surface area of Kanas Lake has not obviously changed due to its typical U-shape cross section; the areas of Ulungur Lake and Jili Lake increased sharply in the 1980s and then slightly decreased; the areas of Sayram Lake, Ebinur Lake, and Bosten Lake increased and then decreased, with peaks detected in the early 2000s; the areas of Barkol Lake and Toale Culler decreased, while those of the lakes located in the Kunlun Mountains steadily increased. Lake areas also show various relationships with climate variables. There is no obvious relationship between area and climate variables in Kanas Lake due to the specific lake morphology; the areas of most lakes showed positive correlations with annual precipitation (except Sayram Lake). A negative correlation between area and temperature were detected in Ulungur Lake, Jili Lake, Barkol Lake, and Toale Culler, while positive correlations were suggested in Bosten Lake and the lakes in the Kunlun Mountains (e.g., Saligil Kollakan Lake, Aksai Chin Lake, and Urukkule Lake). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]