1. Simulation of Temperature Extremes Over West Africa With MPAS.
- Author
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Tanimoune, Laouali Ibrahim, Smiatek, Gerhard, Kunstmann, Harald, and Abiodun, Babatunde J.
- Subjects
HEAT waves (Meteorology) ,CLIMATE change models ,SEA ice ,OCEAN temperature ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,TEMPERATURE - Abstract
A large ensemble of 51 simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) has been applied to assess its ability to reproduce extreme temperatures and heat waves in the area of West Africa. With its global approach the model avoids transition errors influencing the performance of limited area climate models. The MPAS simulations were driven with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent as the only boundary condition. The results reveal moderate cold biases in the range from −0.6° to −0.9°C for the daily mean temperature and −1.2° to −2.0°C for the area mean of the daily maximum temperature. The bias in the number of tropical nights ranges from +3 to −10 days. An underestimation by up to 50% is also present regarding the number of summer days. The heat wave duration index is underestimated regionally by 10%–60%. MPAS simulations are generally closer to the reanalysis results than they are to the observational reference. The results from long term runs and from short term runs with selected SST years are similar. Shortcomings in the reproduction of the temperature and precipitation indices found in the present investigation indicate that the global MPAS approach does provide a fidelity similar to that of the regional climate models. Plain Language Summary: A large number of simulations with the global weather and climate model Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) has been applied to investigate extreme temperatures and related heat waves. The considered area is West Africa. In the simulations sea surface temperature and sea ice extent were the only boundary condition. The results reveal moderate underestimation in the range from −0.6° to −0.9°C for the daily mean temperature. The bias of the area mean of the daily maximum temperature was −1.2° to −2.0°C. An underestimation by up to 50% is also present in the number of summer days. The heat wave duration index is underestimated regionally by 10%–60%. Obtained results in the reproduction of the observed temperatures and precipitation show that the global MPAS model provides results similar to that of regional climate models. Key Points: Multiple Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) runs with SST and sea ice extent as the only boundary condition are used to investigate extremes of temperature and heat wavesMPAS reveals moderate cold biases for all investigated temperature indicesLong term runs as well as short term runs with selected SST years yield similar results [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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