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This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990) and future period (2011-2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In-depth understanding and accurate simulation of hydrological processes are of great significance for sustainable development and management of water resources. The study focused on a semi-arid catchment, the upper Tang River catchment in northern China, and investigated the performance of the RCCC-WBM model based on the detection results of trend, mutation, and periodicity. Results show that (1) as a result of climate change and intensive human activities, the observed runoff series after TFPW (trend-free pre-whiting) pretreatment presented a significant downward trend with the mutation point in 1996; (2) the abrupt change of air temperature series was also in 1996 with a significant rising trend, while the annual precipitation series exhibited an insignificant declining trend with no obvious mutation during 1973–2014; (3) the precipitation and runoff series had periodic variations roughly 7a multiples with the periodic oscillation strongest around 14a, while the air temperature series showed only one dominant period of 28a; (4) the RCCC-WBM model performed well in discharge simulation before the mutation year but gradually lost its stability after 1996, which was mainly affected by anthropogenic activities. It is essential to accurately identify the characteristics of hydrological elements and improve the applicability of hydrological models in the changing environment in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]