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Average monthly air temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) exhibit a notable rise during summer, ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 °C per decade, while precipitation experiences a significant decrease of up to 8 mm per decade. Climate models, across various RCP scenarios, project an increase in air temperature, that is most pronounced in the summer season. Additionally, there is a projected frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation during autumn. In BiH, agricultural production faces substantial risks, including droughts, spring and autumn frosts, hail, and floods. Recent years have witnessed extreme hydrological events, notably the 2012 drought and the 2014 floods. Strategic documents highlight the critical importance of addressing floods and droughts for agriculture, as well as their implications for the environment, households, and industry. To assess the severity of extreme hydrological events and their impact on agriculture, with a specific emphasis on autumn and summer in Bosnia and Herzegovina, average and peak values of the Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated separately for the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, focusing on October and August. Compared to the reference climatic period the current climate is characterized by shifts between intense wet and dry periods, with very few years exhibiting stable and expected weather conditions. Identified as extremely wet and flood-prone years, SPEI2 October values for 1974 (2.42), 1996 (2.13), 2001 (2.24), and 2014 (2.05) stand out, with only one extremely dry year in 1985 (-2.21). SPEI2 August indicates extremely dry years, notably 2012 (-2.35) and 2017 (-2.25). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate change has been caused by interaction of natural processes and the anthropogenic factor. In turn, it incites the pronounced natural and socioeconomic changes. It is the air temperature that plays a pertinent role in understanding the climate change problem. Southeast Europe, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), is highly relevant for the observations of regional differences in changes of air temperature regime. From the regional-geographical point of view, South and Southeast B&H cover 26.5% (13.568 km²) of B&H territory (51.209 km²). It is from south and southeast that the Mediterranean impacts from the Adriatic Sea penetrate into the defined region, which further affects the variability of climate conditions in B&H. The paper presents trends in three parameter categories: mean annual, mean maximum, and mean minimum air temperatures in the territory of South and Southeast B&H. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the likely climate change based on air temperature trends. Methodologically, temperature trends were processed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test. For the purpose of the analysis, available data from four meteorological stations in South and Southeast B&H for a 56-year period were used. Based on the obtained results, a statistically relevant positive trend was observed in all twelve time series. According to the analyzed trends, the increase of air temperature was dominant in the target area. The application of Geographical Information System (GIS) tools indicated the presence of regional differences in air temperature distribution. An evident phenomenon is the combined impact of the orography of the region and the maritime influence. The occurring climate change affects specific social sectors, so the problem must be addressed properly. Another pertinent fact is that the climate change problem has not been adequately analyzed in the strategic documents in B&H. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines changes in air temperature, precipitation, and river discharges on seasonal and annual scale over the Sava River watershed in Bosnia & Herzegovina during the period 1961-2016. Based upon data gathered from 11 meteorological stations and 3 hydrological stations, hydroclimatic variables trends were established by utilizing the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen's slope estimator. The results show significant positive seasonal and annual trends (expect for autumn, during which upward trends were insignificant) in air temperature, whereas both positive and negative insignificant seasonal and annual precipitation trends are shown where determined for the entire watershed. Most prominent upward trends in air temperature were found in summer and afterwards in winter and spring, indicating a pronounced warming tendency over the Sava River watershed. Trends in river discharge displayed a negative tendency in all seasons. Nevertheless, a majority of estimated trends of river discharges were weak and statistically insignificant. Throughout the year, river discharges showed significant positive correlation with precipitation, whilst connection with air temperature was mostly significant and negative. The study results suggest that climate is an important factor affecting river regimes, as well as that changes in river discharges are reflecting recent abrupt changes in climatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the air temperature characteristics in Bosnia and Herzegovina in order to identify recent trends in mean air temperature. Trends in annual, seasonal and monthly mean air temperatures during 1961-2015 periods were determined based on data from sixteen meteorological stations. MAKESENS procedure (Salmi, et al., 2002), which uses the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen's method, was applied on time series of annual, seasonal and monthly mean air temperatures to assess the trend magnitude and its statistical significance. Given the results, the warming trend is present all over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Significant positive trends in annual and summer temperatures were detected over the entire territory (p<0.01). Positive winter and spring trends are largely significant (p<0.01 or p<0.05), whereas autumn trends are low and insignificant. The highest increase was registered in June-August and December-January periods. In some areas, a low negative trend was present in September and November. A significant positive correlation between East-Atlantic pattern index and temperature was determined over the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina throughout the year. Winter and spring temperatures were also significantly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index and Arctic Oscillation index, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The air temperature in Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasing (0.3 - 0.6 °C per decade), while rainfall events are more extreme. Additionally, there is an increased variability in weather conditions across all seasons, marked by rapid shifts from extremely cold to warm weather, as well as transitions from periods of exceptionally high rainfall to exceedingly dry periods. Droughts and floods pose the most significant risks. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a lack of adequate information and analyses of extreme climate events, especially regarding their timing, intensity, magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Therefore, this study aims to address these questions using the precise drought index SPEI. The identified wet years were: 1969, 1970, 1976, 1978, 1999, 2001, 2010, 2013, and 2014, while the dry years were 1961, 1971, 1983, 1990, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2020. In the northern and western regions of BiH, the longest wet period in terms of duration and spatial extent occurred from May 2014 to July 2015. In the central and southern parts of BiH, the longest wet period extended over 19 months from February 1969 to August 1970. The longest drought with the largest spatial extent was the drought from August 2011 to July 2013. The obtained data shows a significant shift towards drier weather, as dry months have increased by 15% compared to wet months. At the same time, there has been a decrease in near-normal conditions and an increase in extremely wet months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of Southeastern Europe, where Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Croatia are located, is changing in line with the global trends. The spatial and seasonal distribution of precipitation is changing, while the temperatures increased 0.4-0.8 oC on average compared to 1961-1990, most notably during summer (1.0-1.2 oC). Depending on the different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, the temperatures in this area are projected to further increase by 1.7-4.0 °C. In order to understand the effects of climate change on regional water resources, it is important to assess the impacts of these changes on the components of the water balance. The aim of this study was to determine and compare the severity of changes in annual water balance between two climate periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2020). The results indicate that climate change has a different temporal and spatial effect. All areas showed a positive trend in mean air temperature (0.29-0.36 oC per decade), reference evapotranspiration (5.96-32.14 mm per decade) while precipitation, total runoff, amount of snow and actual evapotranspiration vary depending on the location and time period. The key characteristic of the 1991-2020 period compared to 1961-1990 is the greater variation of all components of the water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acer campestre L. is naturally distributed in most of Europe. The species can serve as a valuable model for researching the sensitivity of populations to habitat fragmentation. This research aims to determine whether there is a differentiation of field maple populations based on their division by ecological-vegetation regions, precipitation amounts, temperatures, and altitudes of the populations. The material was collected from 25 populations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, from different ecological-vegetation areas, with twelve trees per population and five fruits and ten leaves per tree. Then, 10 fruit properties and 19 leaf properties were analyzed. A discriminant analysis was performed for population groups based on the ecological-vegetation area, amount of precipitation, average annual air temperature and altitude. The discriminant analysis results showed the distinguishing of groups of populations in the sub-Mediterranean area, and groups of populations with an average annual temperature of 14.00 to 15.99 °C. There was no clear separation of the groups according to the average annual precipitation or altitude. The analysis of the connection established that the influence of environmental factors is more pronounced compared to geographical factors. The key ecological variable that determines morphological separation was temperature and to a lesser extent precipitation. The results of this research will be used in planning of afforestation of suitable, unvegetated land and extreme habitats in the southern and southwestern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina with Acer campestre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents developed 3Dnet-HET, a distributed hydrologic model coupled with the discrete channel network concept for groundwater circulation simulation in the karst environment. The hydrologic part is driven by the spatially distributed precipitation input and characteristic air temperatures to produce surface runoff and groundwater infiltration as a result. This represents input for the "horizontal water balance" module in which the groundwater flow is simulated by the system of discrete conduits representing known groundwater paths. In this study, the model is applied for simulation of the Dabarsko polje water balance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the river Bregava catchment runoff. The model is firstly calibrated based on recorded water levels in the Dabarsko polje and flow discharges at the Bregava spring. Obtained model is utilized to analyze the Dabarsko polje water balance and possible effects of the planned hydropower plant "Dabar". Results indicate a high flow variation and necessity of integrated real-time water management of the whole Trebišnjica system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some areas of the world, regional climate change is in good agreement with global climate change. This study brings new information about what defines climate change in the contact area of Adriatic Sea and Southeastern Europe, and conclusions are based on trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperatures in the southern and southeastern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trend analysis was applied on mean annual surface air temperatures, mean maximum temperatures, and mean minimum temperatures of all four seasons. This study used 4 meteorological stations: Livno, Bileüa, Mostar, and Ivan Sedlo for 56 years. The main statistical method is the Mann-Kendall test. The total number of analysis is 48. A statistically significant positive trend was determined in 36 analysis, while in the rest of the tests this was not the case. The highest amount of temperature increase is present in the mean maximum summer air temperatures in Livno and Ivan Sedlo. Mean minimum autumn air temperatures had the smallest increase. Negative trend is present in the mean autumn surface air temperatures and mean maximum autumn temperatures. Using a geographical information system resulted in visualizing regional differences in the spatial distribution of isotherms. The study area has combined the influence of orography and maritime effects of the Adriatic Sea. Having in mind these results, the growing temperature has been recognized as a problem which needs more attention in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unfortunately, official documents which propose economic adaptation on climate change in this country are not at a satisfactory level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Horizontal air temperature is defined by the value of the mean air temperature for a certain surface area unit. It is defined by the value of horizontal thermal gradient, i.e. the value of average change of horizontal temperature per unit area. In order to define the horizontal change of air temperature in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a GRID thermal model was constructed whose spatial resolution is 20 m. Based on obtained thermal model geo-database it was determined that the mean annual air temperature for the whole area of Bosnia and Herzegovina is about 10.9 °C, keeping in mind that there are significant thermal differences with respect to the two existing climate zones. More specifically, on the territory of the northern temperate climate zone the average annual temperature is about 9.7 °C, while in the Mediterranean climate zone the said value is 12.1 °C. In this work, it was also found that thermal contrasts are very pronounced as well, due to the fact that average annual temperature in the highest mountain peak zones in southeastern Bosnian highlands is negative and is found to be -1.4 °C (Maglić peak), while at the Neum coastal zone it is measured at 15.9 °C. The above stated pronounced thermal contrasts are determined on a small horizontal distance, as a consequence of climactic position of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as highly pronounced terrain dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various methods of time series analysis have been used in studies of karst hydrological systems. Among these methods, correlation and spectral analysis have had an important role. The correlation analysis most often has been based on determination of correlation coefficients and correlation functions. Partial correlation functions (PCF) are a mathematical tool of the correlation analysis which practical applicability in karst hydrology is insufficiently explored. In this study, the correlation and spectral analysis are applied on the catchment of Rumin Springs located in the Dinaric karst area between Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The available daily data are the rainfall, air temperature and relative humidity from three locations, as well as the discharge from two springs. The periods before and after the construction of HPP Orlovac in 1973 are analyzed. The basic hypothesis is that a difference between PCF obtained for two neighboring karst springs describe a difference in their functioning. The results of application show that PCF can resolve some ambiguities concerning the effects included in correlation functions and can provide the additional information that cannot be obtained by other methods of time series analysis. The obtained results are mostly in accordance with the present knowledge, and they support the existing hypotheses about the functioning of Rumin Springs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]