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In this paper, we critically reflect on the ability of spatial and sectoral planning approaches to deal with regional climate change, especially sea level rise, and analyze the potential of ecosystem service assessments in regional coastal climate change adaptation planning. We present two concrete but contrasting case studies that focus on coastal realignment and wetland restoration as well as seaside tourism and resort development on the German Baltic Sea coast. The ecosystem service assessments compare past, present and potential future local development scenarios. Complementary, we apply the InVest and the Matrix ecosystem service assessment approaches. Despite some shortcomings, the proactive German hierarchical planning system seems suitable to deal with climate change and provide a framework for adaptation measures in coastal zones. It largely prevents a shift of climate change risks between municipalities and stakeholders. Comparative ecosystem service assessments seem well suited to play a role in the planning process by raising awareness about problems, possible solutions and consequences. On a local level, they can provide comprehensive insight into consequences of alternative measures. Our examples show that, in principle, potential future situations can be addressed with comparative ecosystem service approaches. We discuss whether the results of hypothetical future scenarios, with inherent uncertainties, might be misleading and counterproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address "wicked problems" that threaten the good ecological status of the Baltic Sea such as climate change with diverse stakeholder values and complex solutions, new interdisciplinary knowledge that incorporates citizen science is urgently needed. This paper scrutinizes environmental heritage in the Baltic Sea region by exploring what it means to persons living in the Baltic Sea environment. It asks the question, what is environmental heritage? It uses a qualitative research method using both texts and photographs--collected in an open competition--to consider humanistic viewpoints of persons living in the changing climate in the Baltic Sea Region. A thematic content analysis was utilized to identify emerging themes in the text and visual inquiry was used to decipher what meanings related to environmental change were conveyed in submitted the photographs. Some of the findings include that environmental heritage is perceived as experiences of living and interacting with the Sea and other non-human actors like animals, but also as material objects in the environment such as sustainable architecture. It also found that environmental heritage is articulated as a source of conflict, between users and uses and the traditional and new ways of life. Resolution of this conflict is important in guiding effective solutions to the challenge of climate change. It is thus important to develop interdisciplinary methods that facilitate the merging of different knowledge systems in order to generate effective solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to changes in atmospheric circulation and warmer winters, the frequency of strong westerly storms associated with high sea level in ice-free sea conditions has increased on the western coast of Estonia. This trend is especially dangerous for the sections of depositional seashores along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea such as Pärnu Bay and its surroundings. Pärnu is the largest city in SW Estonia being a popular summer resort with excellent sandy beaches and relevant infrastructure for tourism. Extreme events that may occur in the Pärnu Bay region are irregular extensive floods and sea ice attacks but also strong erosion of beaches. During the last 50 years, the city has suffered from two remarkably high storm surges and associated inundations. The aim of the paper was to analyze the best solutions for coastal zone management in Pärnu Bay area using a System Approach Framework (SAF). It is based on some new results of geomorphic surveys performed in the study area in 2015–2017, review of previous work as well as results from stakeholder meetings. Some formerly proposed flood defence projects and ideas were re-analyzed and new ideas were proposed to better inform the people about risks and reduce the damage in case of catastrophic events. Based on the analysis of the collected data and discussions with the stakeholders, we concluded that hard coastal protection measures would be too expensive and therefore not reasonable for implementation. Developing different kinds of adaptation measures and raising awareness of the people are the most applicable response options to high storm surges and extensive inundations in the Pärnu Bay region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we describe multiannual variations of the atmospheric aerosol optical depth values in the widely understood area of the Baltic Sea. We present the trends in the changes and depict unusual aerosol situations. As a result of analyses, we focus on 2019, since unusually high values of aerosol optical depth were recorded in several stations around the Baltic. We match the high aerosol levels with an unusually high number of wildfires across Europe in spring and summer, which emitted large quantities of aerosols into the atmosphere that were distributed over vast European areas in part by the wind. We then connect this case with the climate change consequences. Since aerosols influence the radiative budget of the planet by directly affecting the atmospheric radiation budget, it is obvious that human well-being is in danger due to wildfires, as well as from the atmospheric perspective. Climate change will lead to more frequent fires; thus, humans need to develop solutions to decrease the risk of fire outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Geodetski Vestnik is the property of Sveza Geodetov Slovenije and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper presents a study on the insufficient resilience of three coastal lake barriers at the central part of the Polish Baltic Sea coast. Environmental qualities of those lakes belonging to the NATURA2000 network dictate efforts aimed at their conservation through the maintenance of the barriers. The use of recently elaborated high resolution geological surveys demonstrated previously underestimated severe sand scarcity and indicated high threats of enhanced erosion, breaching and overtopping of the barriers. Next, the investigation of alongshore variation of nearshore wave energy dissipation, basing on the available bathymetric records and the concept of ordinary and empirical equilibrium profiles, identified potential erosion hot spots along the barriers. Finally, the XBeach model was applied to simulate the effects of rare, heavy storms with the recurrence period of 20 years with and without climate change induced sea level rise. Overall, the results demonstrated high susceptibility of the barriers to frequent fragmentation and allowed for recommendations of protection measures minimizing interference into the natural landscapes. The novelty of the paper consists in the assessment of aftermaths of extreme events by combining recent advances in coastal geology and climate change effects.

ABSTRACT Palginõmm, V.; Orviku, K.; Suursaar, Ü.; Kont, A.; Tõnisson, H., and Rivis, R., 2018. Lessons Learned from Record-High Storm Surges and Associated Inundations in Pärnu, SW Estonia. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 1391–1395. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Due to changes in atmospheric circulation and warmer winters, the frequency of strong westerly storms associated with high sea level in ice-free sea conditions has increased over the last half-century on the western coast of Estonia including in Pärnu City. During the last 50 years Pärnu has suffered from two remarkably high storm surges and associated inundations – in 1967 (2.53 m above mean sea level) and in 2005 (2.75 m). This paper addresses the problem of coastal floods in Pärnu, analyzing different action plans in order to protect the city against floods, which may get even more disastrous due to climate change induced sea level rise. Our analysis showed that application of adaptation measures seems to be the most reasonable option for Pärnu, while the expenses on building a protective dam exceeds the potentially avoidable losses. A managed retreat was not acceptable either because the city would lose its identity as a famous summer resort with excellent sandy beaches. Dissipation of storm surge water over adjacent low-lying uninhabited territories would not give any clear effect reducing the high water level only by 5 centimetres as maximum. In case of adapting to temporary extensive floods, a more efficient warning system and better communication between the authorities and the local people are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth's ecosystems continues to attract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land to water, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentially countervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climate with help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurement time series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years with daily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrological simulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverine inorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogen export from Sweden (2061-2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0-29%), based on the ensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal pattern of inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and more winter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogen loading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs need to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the changes in the long-term hydroclimatic conditions in the SE Baltic Sea, along the Lithuanian coast, on the basis of the monitoring data obtained within a 45-year period (1961-2005). Furthermore, the paper discusses the processes behind those changes. Time series of relevant data along the Lithuanian coast from previous centuries were used to investigate climatic variability and trends. The study finds an increased period of westerly winds during winter. During recent decades, the impact of global climate change on sea-level rise has drawn wide interest, since the coastline changes have ecological, economic, and social impacts on the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The analysis of the trends for the Lithuanian coastal zone found results similar to those obtained from global and regional analyses showing increasing sea levels today and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As initiatives are taken in Sweden to evaluate the geological potential for carbon dioxide storage in the adjacent Baltic Sea, experiences from elsewhere may provide lessons about perceptions of and potential opposition toward carbon capture and storage (CCS). A comprehensive analysis of storage feasibility needs to include the issue of social acceptance. The knowledge of CCS is low in Sweden however and there are no Swedish CCS projects to learn from. This paper therefore draws on lessons from other large-scale energy projects that are embedded in similar Baltic Sea contexts to complement lessons on CCS acceptance provided in the literature. The aim of this study is to facilitate an understanding of acceptance of potential future CO2 storage initiatives in the Swedish Baltic Sea region and to analyze what contextual factors are likely to be determinative of the outcome of these and similar projects. The study identifies climate change as one such key contextual factor, which can often be used both to support and oppose a large-scale energy project. Furthermore, the study finds that there are perceptions of uncertainties regarding the regulatory framework that need to be adressed in order to facilitate the planning of CCS projects in the region. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Baltic Sea coasts hold huge potential for summer beaching in the 21st century. The appropriate temperature and precipitation regime are prior to Mediterranean Sea climatic conditions which become too hot with regular heat waves in summer. The originally designed method allows to evaluate more “precise” UTCI values (in °C) using averaged monthly data of meteorological variables (air temperature, humidity, wind velocity, cloudiness, and atmospheric pressure) instead of daily values. The evaluation in this paper covers the period from 1980 to 2009. Only the summer beaching period (May–September) was analysed. The initial data was taken from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project database. The monthly reanalysis fields of meteorological variables were used for covering the Baltic Sea coasts and adjacent territories (180 grid points). The UTCI values were obtained using BioKlima version 2.6 software. The UTCI values were visualized using ArcGIS 10.2 version software. The evaluation period was divided into two parts (1980–1994 and 1995–2009). The results showed that the temporal and spatial changes are already happening on the coastline. The UTCI values became higher in almost the entire perimeter of the Baltic Sea coastline and the warming process included every summer month. The whole Baltic Sea coastline corresponds to comfortable conditions (UTCI >9°C) of the UTCI categorization from May to August. Only in September did conditions become less comfortable. However, the real “thermal comfort zone” conditions (UTCI >17.5°C) on the Baltic Sea coasts last from the middle of June until the middle of August. The southern part is significantly warmer compared to other parts in May and September, while the UTCI values are more similar over the other summer months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of differences and similarities of the current climate changes in the Baltic and Adriatic coastal regions and appropriate adaptation policies on national, regional and European level. All reparian countries are at different stages of developing and implementing national adaptation strategies. The proposal for an overall BSR wide Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan has been launched with the aim to recommend actions for climate change adaptation in the Baltic region. No similar agreement has been concluded yet on the protection of the semi-closed Adriatic Sea, the surface of which is about 1/2 of that of the Baltic Sea, and whose coastal region is home to about 1/4 of that of the Baltic Sea. The differences in the socio-economic characteristics and indicators may be partly responsible for the differring attitudes, actions and reporting concerning the adaptation to climate change, both between individual countries, as well as between the two regions as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ringed seal (Pusa hispida) is an early immigrant in the Baltic Basin and has since its arrival experienced substantial changes in the climate, salinity and productivity of the Basin. In this paper, we discuss the dispersal and distribution of the ringed seal during different stages of the Baltic Sea in relation to past and ongoing environmental changes. Subfossil ringed seal remains around the Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits were radiocarbon dated in order to map the distribution of the species in different time periods. The δ13C data were used in evaluating the changes in the marine character of the Baltic Basin. The sequence of the dates indicates a continuous presence of the species in the Baltic Basin. The earliest ringed seal finds come from the Skagerrak/Kattegat area (Denmark, Swedish west coast) and date to the full glacial period and Baltic Ice Lake. In the Baltic Basin, the species appears in the subfossil record during the Ancylus period, but the main part of the remains date to the Littorina stage. During the Littorina stage, the distribution of the species was at least periodically wider than today, covering also southern parts of the Baltic. The presence of breeding populations in southern parts of the Baltic during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) indicates that the winters were at least periodically cold enough for winter ice. The changes in the marine influence in the Baltic Basin can be seen in the seal collagen δ13C values, which serve as a proxy for qualitative changes in water mass salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO and P-PO loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Geografija is the property of Lithuanian Academy of Sciences Publishers and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we reconstructed river runoff to the Baltic Sea since 1500 using temperature and atmospheric circulation indices, showing the important atmospheric processes for river runoff in different regions. Runoff appears to be strongly linked to temperature, wind and rotational circulation components in the northern region and Gulf of Finland, but more associated with rotational and deformation circulation components in the south. No significant long-term change has been detected in total river runoff to the Baltic Sea for 500 years, although decadal and regional variability is large. Analysis of runoff sensitivity to temperature shows that the south region may become drier with rising air temperatures. This is in contrast to the north region and Gulf of Finland where warmer temperatures are associated with more river runoff. Over the past 500 years the total river runoff to the Baltic Sea has decreased by 3% (450 m/s) per degree Celsius increase. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Coastal Research is the property of KnowledgeWorks Global, Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

After Bakun proposed his hypothesis in 1990 regarding upwelling under climate change, researchers conducted intensive studies to obtain the trends, current status, and future predictions of upwelling. Numerous studies have mainly focused on four major upwelling areas, which are part of the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (EBUS). However, despite its importance, little attention has been given to the marginal seas upwelling areas such as the South China Sea (SCS), Arabian Sea, Baltic Sea, and other small-scale upwelling locations. Here, we combined several published studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on these areas. There had been uncertainty regarding the intensification of upwelling, depending on the locations, data type, and method used. For the SCS, Vietnam and the northern SCS showed intensifying upwelling trends, while the Taiwan Strait showed a decreasing trend. Separate studies in eastern Hainan and the Arabian Sea (Somali and Oman) showed contrasting results, where both increasing and decreasing trends of upwelling had been recorded. Like the SCS, the Baltic Sea showed different results for different areas as they found negative trends along the Polish, Latvian and Estonian, and positive trends along the Swedish coast of the Baltic Sea and the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland. While small scales upwelling in La Guajira and southern Java showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. All of these limited studies suggest that researchers need to conduct a lot more studies, including the future projection of upwelling, by using climate models to develop a new understanding of how the upwelling in the SCS responds to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sclerochronological studies based on hard structures of marine organisms are valuable tools—both for reconstructing past climate conditions and for predicting future impacts of environmental changes on marine resources. Existing archives, which house millions of fish otoliths (ear stones) constitute an excellent basis for such research; but, they remain underutilized. The objective of this project was to identify the factors that influence the annual growth patterns of the European flounder ( Platichthys flesus ) based on an analysis of otolith increments. We applied linear mixed models to develop a 74-year long chronology that reflects the inter-annual variations in flounder growth rates using otolith samples collected from 1957 to 2016 in the southern part of the Baltic Sea, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change. By analyzing the widths of otolith increments we revealed the existence of common environmental factors that influence fish growth. Using a mixed modeling framework, we incorporated a recent method to identify the optimal time window for climatic factors and showed that the most significant effect of the mean Baltic Sea Index occurs during August–December, while mean sea surface temperature is most significant from April–June. Change point analysis on the developed chronology identified major alterations occurred in flounder growth in 1988, 1992 and 2006. This result is in accord with published studies on regime shifts in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This paper reports information concerning the response of the commercially important European flounder to the changing environment that may support future ecosystem-based management of fish stocks. Moreover, the results also highlight the potential for applying biochronological techniques to identify rapid regime shifts in marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses a multispecies (cod, herring and sprat) partition function game among three asymmetric countries in the Baltic Sea. Through an empirical application, the study highlights the importance of dynamic multispecies models in coalition formation. We show that the grand coalition between the three countries can be stabilised when the most efficient country compensates the other countries. This solution is not feasible when using a single-species model for the cod population; thus, taking into account the multispecies nature of the Baltic Sea fisheries, the scope of cooperation increases compared with a single-species simulation. In contrast to the predominant conception, climate change may improve the likelihood of a binding agreement because with a lower cod biomass, countries will gain more from cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal systems experience strong impacts of ongoing environmental change, affecting fish communities and subsequently fishery yields. In the Baltic Sea, the combined effects of climate‐induced changes and eutrophication‐related pressures constitute major threats to its living resources. Although much work has been devoted to uncovering environmental impacts on the commercially most valuable fish stocks, only little is known about community‐wide responses of fished species and how environmental change may affect their yield. In this study, the authors use a joint species distribution modelling framework to disentangle environmental impacts on species‐specific fishery yields of 16 fished species along the coast of Finland over four decades. The authors show that environmental covariates substantially contributed to variations in fishery yields and are likely to have strong impacts on fished resources also in the future. Salinity and near‐bottom oxygen concentration emerged as the strongest environmental drivers of yields at the community level, whereas temperature was particularly important for cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) yields. The authors found shore density to be an important predictor for fisheries resources especially for freshwater fish. The results of this study suggest that the changes in environmental conditions during the past four decades had a positive effect on the yields of freshwater and warm‐affinity species, whereas yields of marine cold‐affinity species have been mainly negatively affected by contracting favourable habitats, becoming warmer and less saline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre‐existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end‐of‐century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address “wicked problems” that threaten the good ecological status of the Baltic Sea such as climate change with diverse stakeholder values and complex solutions, new interdisciplinary knowledge that incorporates citizen science is urgently needed. This paper scrutinizes environmental heritage in the Baltic Sea region by exploring what it means to persons living in the Baltic Sea environment. It asks the question, what is environmental heritage? It uses a qualitative research method using both texts and photographs—collected in an open competition—to consider humanistic viewpoints of persons living in the changing climate in the Baltic Sea Region. A thematic content analysis was utilized to identify emerging themes in the text and visual inquiry was used to decipher what meanings related to environmental change were conveyed in submitted the photographs. Some of the findings include that environmental heritage is perceived as experiences of living and interacting with the Sea and other non-human actors like animals, but also as material objects in the environment such as sustainable architecture. It also found that environmental heritage is articulated as a source of conflict, between users and uses and the traditional and new ways of life. Resolution of this conflict is important in guiding effective solutions to the challenge of climate change. It is thus important to develop interdisciplinary methods that facilitate the merging of different knowledge systems in order to generate effective solutions.

The paleoclimatic events of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene have been clarified based on the results of detailed lithological, geochemical, pollen, and paleomagnetic studies of sediment cores collected in the eastern Gulf of Finland. The time frame of the change from lacustrine to marine sedimentation conditions has been refined based on the radiocarbon dating. For deposits of the marine phase of the Baltic Sea in the eastern Gulf of Finland, hypoxia cycles associated with periods of warming during the Holocene have been revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses various aspects of local and regional storminess, as well as challenges in quantifying its tendencies in the eastern section of the Baltic Sea. The study is based on various long-term data sets, such as wind and sea level observation data from coastal stations and tide gauges of Estonia (1899–2013). It also discusses long-term wave hindcasts (1966–2013), reconstructions of shoreline changes, as well as the limitations and possible shortcomings in each of the data sets. Mostly located on the westerly exposed and windward coast of the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea, the case study area is sensitive to wind and storm climate changes. Different manifestations of storminess delivered somewhat specific results. When analyzed together, the first principal component of storminess was connected to the intensity of regional cyclonic activity along the polar front and had relatively high stages in 1920s–1940s, 1980s–1990s and probably also from 2010. The second component carried a local and more random imprint. Appearing independently of the high NAO or general “storminess” phases, the most notable event-driven extremes in the record were related to this component. Based on our data, we cannot confirm the existence of any general increasing long-term trends for storminess. Wherever the increase exists, it has occurred as a winter-time increase accompanied by the shift of the stormy season from autumn to winter. The spatially contrasting results for westerly and northerly exposed coasts reflect the corresponding variations in local wind, which are connected to the changes in storm track activity above northern Europe and a poleward shift of cyclones' trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences is the property of Teaduste Akadeemia Kirjastus and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article expands the discussion of Baltic Sea environmental governance by examining the implications of climate change on governance. It scrutinizes the physical challenges posed by climate change and analyses how the existing governing system can meet these challenges. The findings indicate that the present governing system is limited and cannot capture future changes and feedback effects. Therefore, this article recommends that multiple governance approaches should be explored. Management practices should be cross-sectoral and flexible, based both on the recognition of past experiences and all types of knowledge, including scientific but also local. Further interdisciplinary research can guide this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dreier, N., Schlamkow, C., Fröhle, P. and Salecker, D., 2013. Changes of 21st Century's average and extreme wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast due to global climate change. On the basis of hourly simulated wind data from a regional circulation model (Cosmo-CLM) long-term time series (1960-2100) of wave parameters were compiled for two of the SRES scenarios A1B, B1 at three locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The time series of wave parameters were calculated with the help of statistical correlations between observed wind and wave data, which were derived for the three locations in the study area. Furthermore, we applied a wave model for the Western Baltic Sea to correct some of the calculated wave information. The key findings of this study are that: (i) significant changes of average wind conditions can directly be linked to significant changes of the average wave conditions, (ii) a spatial pattern for the changes of average wave conditions can be found, (iii) no general trend can be found for the changes of extreme wave conditions. Comparisons of wind conditions, as simulated by the regional circulation model, for the past and the future are showing two main changes: (a) increases of average wind velocities to the end of the 21st century up to +4% and (b) more wind events from westerly and less events from easterly directions. The changes of the average wind velocities are resulting in increases of the average significant wave heights at westerly wind exposed locations up to +7% and small decreases of the average significant wave heights at easterly wind exposed locations. The future changes of the wave directions, with more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE, can be connected to the future changes of wind directions. Analyses of extreme wave heights with a return period of 200 years are showing both increasing and decreasing changes of up/down to +/−14%. At one location of the study area (Warnemünde) a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights to the end of the 21st century exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In a changing environment, the status of individual fish populations and consequently the fishing possibilities can change rapidly, not always for reasons directly related to fisheries. In order to take the ecosystem context into account in the management process and achieve consensus concerning fishing possibilities among stakeholders, it is important that the status of various drivers influencing fish stocks, and their relative impacts are broadly understood. In this paper, we demonstrate how indicators and their aggregation methodologies could assist to achieve this, using the central Baltic Sea as an example. The developed indicator framework provides a quick and visually effective way to track changes in the performance of drivers of fish stock dynamics and communicate the related consequences to a wider audience. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Availability of suitable prey in sufficient quantities during the shift to exogenous feeding is an important factor determining survival and growth of larval fish. The question of what factors regulate prey consumption in larval fish has remained a focus of fisheries oceanography. In this paper feeding ecology of the larval spring-spawning herring Clupea harengus membras was studied in relation to selected environmental abiotic and biotic parameters in the shallow sheltered Pärnu Bay during the 1970s and 2000s. The copepod Eurytemora affinis was the strongly dominating dietary item during all the years while other prey items were ingested only sporadically. Feeding activity of herring larvae was governed by different environmental variables and the relationships varied amongst the size classes of herring larvae. The studied abiotic (i.e., wind speed, water temperature, water transparency) or biotic variables (i.e., density of copepod nauplii, copepodite stages I–V and adults of E. affinis, mean developmental stage of copepods and density of fish larvae) had no significant effects on the feeding activity of small larvae. The feeding activity of medium larvae was only affected by water transparency and that of large larvae by a combination of water temperature, wind speed and the structure of local copepod community, respectively. On the other hand, the diet composition of all herring larvae was best described by the density of copepod nauplii. In addition, the density of fish larvae improved the model of small larvae and the density of adult copepods that of medium larvae, respectively. Time was significant for the feeding activity of medium larvae indicating some unexplained variability that was not taken into account by the studied abiotic and biotic variables. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) analyzing global climate change tendencies and their possible impacts on the natural environment and human lifestyles has determined that the ocean and sea level fluctuations are among the indicators of climate change. Annual variations of hydrometeorological conditions were found to have been predetermined not by a steady increase or decrease of one parameter but by their variations within seasons. Therefore the present paper deals with the long-term seasonal Baltic Sea level fluctuations near the Lithuanian coast. Mean monthly values of sea level measured in the port of Klaipėda were chosen for detailed analysis of sea level fluctuations in the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamic pattern of mean sea level fluctuations near Klaipėda includes two time spans distinguished by pronounced differences of sea level rise intensity: 1898 1975 and 19762005. The 51-year time span for a detailed analysis of long-term seasonal sea level fluctuations (1955-2005) was chosen purposefully because it best reflects the changes of sea level rise intensity. The analysis of long-term seasonal sea level fluctuations revealed cyclic character. Yet the monthly cycle phases not always coincide. Also it was determined that the character of maximal mean monthly sea level dynamics in cold season had changed. Generalized comparative analysis of monthly sea level dynamics and climate variations showed that the sea level dynamics was a good reflection of the climate changes in cold season (October-March), whereas in warm season (April-September), sea level fluctuations were not so well reflected in climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased coastal urbanization are causing low-lying coastlines to become increasingly susceptible to the threat of extreme water levels and coastal flooding. Robust decision-making on adaptation in the coastal zone, based on reliable ocean-modelling tools, is therefore crucially contingent on accurate assessments of current and future storm surge hazards. This accuracy relies considerably on the quality of the wind forcing used in the ocean models. In this paper, we use a high-resolution, regional 3D ocean model (HBM) covering the North Sea and Baltic Sea to simulate extreme water levels during three extreme storm surge events with different dynamics and patterns, in order to assess their impacts along Denmark's coastlines, which are of varying levels of complexity. We demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce the observed extreme high-water levels accurately, indicating that the system is well suited for producing simulations of present and future projections of extreme storm surges with high resulting impacts and damage potentials. Additionally, we quantify the level at which acknowledged deficiencies in the otherwise most suitable atmospheric forcing data set influence the results of the storm surge simulations. We found that reducing the temporal resolution of the forcing data – that is, replacing two out of every six time stamps with linearly interpolated values – is preferable to using the original forcing data set when recurring noise is present in these time stamps. As a result, for given storm surge events, and depending on the stage reached in the storm's evolution, mean absolute errors can be reduced by 4.5 cm. This emphasizes the importance of considering such model fluctuations when coupling high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models. [Display omitted] • 3D ocean model HBM skillfully reproduces extreme water levels along Danish coastlines. • Performance improves when two out of every six forcing time stamps are removed. • Slightly reduced temporal resolution tops higher resolution but noisy data. • Based on these results, we find the HBM model validated for future projection runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerical model simulations of storm activity in the White, Baltic andBarentsSeaswere analyzed for the period from 1979 to2015. Inthis paper the storm number of these seas was calculated. The connections of wind wave climate with indecies of large-scale atmospheric circulation such as NAO, AO and SCAND were estimated. Also, the future changes of wind wave climate were analysed.

The role of future forests in global biogeochemical cycles will depend on how different tree species respond to climate. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of common tree species. We constructed a new network of 310 tree‐ring width chronologies from three common tree species (Quercus robur, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica) collected for different ecological, management and climate purposes in the south Baltic Sea region at the border of three bioclimatic zones (temperate continental, oceanic, southern boreal). The major climate factors (temperature, precipitation, drought) affecting tree growth at monthly and seasonal scales were identified. Our analysis documents that 20th century Scots pine and deciduous species growth is generally controlled by different climate parameters, and that summer moisture availability is increasingly important for the growth of deciduous species examined. We report changes in the influence of winter climate variables over the last decades, where a decreasing influence of late winter temperature on deciduous tree growth and an increasing influence of winter temperature on Scots pine growth was found. By comparing climate–growth responses for the 1943–1972 and 1973–2002 periods and characterizing site‐level growth response stability, a descriptive application of spatial segregation analysis distinguished sites with stable responses to dominant climate parameters (northeast of the study region), and sites that collectively showed unstable responses to winter climate (southeast of the study region). The findings presented here highlight the temporally unstable and nonuniform responses of tree growth to climate variability, and that there are geographical coherent regions where these changes are similar. Considering continued climate change in the future, our results provide important regional perspectives on recent broad‐scale climate–growth relationships for trees across the temperate to boreal forest transition around the south Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study has been conducted along the coastline of the eastern Gulf of Finland for three years. It had been shown that accumulation of algal biomass caused by the "green tide" events significantly influenced the metal distribution in the surface sediments. Metal concentrations differed significantly under algal mats and at the sites, which were free of algae. Our study showed significant changes in metal concentrations (Zn, Cd and Pb) along the coast in study years, which, in our opinion, reflect influence of the ports Vysotsk and a new one—Bronka. Principal component and classification analysis extracted two main factors, which can be interpreted as a factors related to the distance from a river mouth and to the input from the new anthropogenic sources. Taking into account a global climate change and the results of our study, we may conclude that in the future extended macroalgal blooms may provoke intense sediment contamination by organic matter and associated metals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estuaries are important conduits between terrestrial and marine aquatic systems and function as hot spots in the aquatic methane cycle. Eutrophication and climate change may accelerate methane emissions from estuaries, causing positive feedbacks with global warming. Boreal regions will warm rapidly in the coming decades, increasing the need to understand methane cycling in these systems. In this 3-year study, we investigated seasonal and spatial variability of methane dynamics in a eutrophied boreal estuary, both in the water column and underlying sediments. The estuary and the connected archipelago were consistently a source of methane to the atmosphere, although the origin of emitted methane varied with distance offshore. In the estuary, the river was the primary source of atmospheric methane. In contrast, in the adjacent archipelago, sedimentary methanogenesis fueled by eutrophication over previous decades was the main source. Methane emissions to the atmosphere from the study area were highly variable and dependent on local hydrodynamics and environmental conditions. Despite evidence of highly active methanogenesis in the studied sediments, the vast majority of the upwards diffusive flux of methane was removed before it could escape to the atmosphere, indicating that oxidative filters are presently still functioning regardless of previous eutrophication and ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic upwelling of seawater in the Baltic Sea from the deep, anoxic bottoms may bring low-pH water rich in CO2 close to the surface. Such events may become more frequent with climate change and ongoing ocean acidification (OA). Photoautotrophs, such as macroalgae, which are important foundation species, have been proposed to benefit from increased carbon availability due to reduced energetic cost in carbon acquisition. However, the exact effects of CO2 fertilization may depend on the ambient light environment, as photosynthesis rates depend on available irradiance. In this experimental study, interacting effects of CO2 addition and irradiance on the habitat-forming macroalga Fucus vesiculosus were investigated during two seasons – winter and summer – in the northern Baltic Sea. Growth rates remained unaffected by CO2 or irradiance during both seasons, suggesting that direct effects of elevated CO2 on mature F. vesiculosus are small. Increases in CO2 affected algal elemental ratios by increasing carbon and decreasing nitrogen content, with resulting changes in the C:N ratio, but only in winter. In summer, chlorophyll a content increased under low irradiance. Increases in CO2 caused a decline in light-harvesting efficiency (decrease in Fv/Fm and α) under high irradiance in summer, and conversely increased α under low irradiance. High irradiance caused increases in the maximum relative electron transport rate (rETRmax) in summer, but not in winter. Differences between winter and summer indicate that F. vesiculosus responses to CO2 and irradiance are season-specific. Increases in carbon content during winter could indicate slightly positive effects of CO2 addition in the long run if the extra carbon gained may be capitalized in growth. The results of this study suggest that increases in CO2, either through upwelling or OA, may have positive effects on F. vesiculosus, but these effects are probably small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palginõmm, V., Ratas, U. and Kont, A., 2007. Increasing human impact on coastal areas of Estonia in recent decades. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 114 – 119. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208 The costal zone is a crucial environment that is experiencing pressure from a wide variety of different agents and interests. One key problem in recent decades has been a rapid increase in the number of holiday houses built as close as possible to the seashore. As in the Nordic countries, the historical roots of land use on the Estonian coast go back to ancient society. The original coastal settlements were usually concentrated around naturally suitable harbours. People used the pastures and fishing huts during the summer season. This was an essential part of making an adequate living and was not associated with recreation. The first expansion of villa settlements close to towns took place in the 19th century at Estonia's famous summer resort, Pärnu. Unlike in the Nordic countries where major coastal settlement expansion took place after WWII, almost the entire coast of Estonia was proclaimed the Soviet border zone where people were not allowed to live. Nearly 3,800 km of shoreline, except the coastal cities and a few summer resorts were under the control of Soviet military forces. Revival of coastal land use and a rapid increase of coastal settlements have occurred over the last 10-15 years. This paper focusses on population changes on the coast of Saaremaa Island associated with increasing pressure and conflicts of interests. We also examine the advantages and disadvantages of existing legislation regulating land use within the Estonian coastal zone. The work is based on GIS techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]