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Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced, multidimensional models are typically applied when researching processes occurring in the nearshore. Relatively simple, empirical equations are commonly used in coastal engineering practice in order to estimate extreme wave run-up on beaches and coastal structures. However, they were mostly calibrated to the characteristics of oceanic coasts, which have different wave regime than a semi-enclosed basin like the Baltic Sea. In this paper we apply the formulas to the Polish Baltic Sea coast. The equations were adjusted to match local conditions in two test sites in Międzyzdroje and Dziwnówek, where beaches are under continuous video surveillance. Data from WAM wave model and coastal gauge stations were used, as well as precise measurements of the beaches' cross-sections. More than 600 run-up events spanning from June to December 2013 were analysed, including surges causing dune erosion. Extreme wave run-up R2% was calculated and presented as a percentage value indicating what part of the beach was inundated. The method had a root-mean-square error of 6.1 and 6.5 percentage points depending on the test site. We consider it is a fast and computationally undemanding alternative to morphodynamic models. It will constitute a part of the SatBałtyk Operating System-Shores, delivering forecasts of wave run-up on the beaches for the entire Polish coastline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus release from sediments can exacerbate the effect of eutrophication in coastal marine ecosystems. The flux of phosphorus from marine sediments to the overlying water is highly dependent on the redox conditions at the sediment-water interface. Bacteria are key players in the biological processes that release or retain phosphorus in marine sediments. To gain more insight in the role of bacteria in phosphorus release from sediments, we assessed the effect of redox conditions on the structure of bacterial communities. To do so, we incubated surface sediments from four sampling sites in the Baltic Sea under oxic and anoxic conditions and analyzed the fingerprints of the bacterial community structures in these incubations and the original sediments. This paper describes the effects of redox conditions, sampling station, and sample type (DNA, RNA, or whole-cell sample) on bacterial community structure in sediments. Redox conditions explained only 5% of the variance in community structure, and bacterial communities from contrasting redox conditions showed considerable overlap. We conclude that benthic bacterial communities cannot be classified as being typical for oxic or anoxic conditions based on community structure fingerprints. Our results suggest that the overall structure of the benthic bacterial community has only a limited impact on benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the high management relevance, commercial fish related aspects have often been central in marine ecosystem investigations. The iterative shiftogram method was applied to detect occurrence, type and timing of shifts in the single and multivariate time series linked to the spring spawning herring larvae in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea). Altogether nineteen larval herring and related environmental variables were utilized during the period of 1957–2010. All the time series investigated, either single or multivariate, exhibited one or more shifts with variable type and timing. Multivariate shiftogram based on all time series identified two distinct states (1957–1983 and 1992–2010) in studied variables, separated by a smooth transition period lasting almost ten years. The observed shift was mainly related to hydroclimate and not to phenology or biota. Significantly increased variability was found in larval herring and recruitment abundances after the shift. While the shift in hydroclimate (1985–1991) was followed by the shift in phenology (1991–1997), the shift in biota occurred remarkably later (2003). It is likely that the dynamics in biota were affected by other drivers than those investigated in the current paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harbours with limited water exchange are hotspots of contaminant accumulation. Antifouling paints (AF) contribute to this accumulation by leaching biocides that may affect non-target species. In several leisure boat harbours and reference areas in the Baltic Sea, chronic exposure effects were evaluated using caging experiments with the snail Theodoxus fluviatilis. We analysed variations in ecologically relevant endpoints (mortality, growth and reproduction) in concert with variation in metallothionein-like proteins (MTLP) levels. The latter is a biomarker of exposure to metals, such as copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn), which are used in AF paints as active ingredient and stabilizer, respectively. In addition, environmental samples (water, sediment) were analysed for metal (Cu and Zn) and nutrient (total phosphorous and nitrogen) concentrations. All life-history endpoints were negatively affected by the exposure, with higher mortality, reduced growth and lower fecundity in the harbours compared to the reference sites. Metal concentrations were the key explanatory variables for all observed adverse effects, suggesting that metal-driven toxicity, which is likely to stem from AF paints, is a source of anthropogenic stress for biota in the harbours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optical-biogeochemical relationships of particulate and dissolved organic matter are presented in support of remote sensing of the Baltic Sea pelagic. This system exhibits strong seasonality in phytoplankton community composition and wide gradients of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), properties which are poorly handled by existing remote sensing algorithms. Absorption and scattering properties of particulate matter reflected the seasonality in biological (phytoplankton succession) and physical (thermal stratification) processes. Inherent optical properties showed much wider variability when normalized to the chlorophyll-a concentration compared to normalization to either total suspended matter dry weight or particulate organic carbon. The particle population had the largest optical variability in summer and was dominated by organic matter in both seasons. The geographic variability of CDOM and relationships with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are also presented. CDOM dominated light absorption at blue wavelengths, contributing 81% (median) of the absorption by all water constituents at 400 nm and 63% at 442 nm. Consequentially, 90% of water-leaving radiance at 412 nm originated from a layer (z90) no deeper than approximately 1.0 m. With water increasingly attenuating light at longer wavelengths, a green peak in light penetration and reflectance is always present in these waters, with z90 up to 3.0–3.5 m depth, whereas z90 only exceeds 5 m at biomass < 5 mg Chla m-3. High absorption combined with a weakly scattering particle population (despite median phytoplankton biomass of 14.1 and 4.3 mg Chla m-3 in spring and summer samples, respectively), characterize this sea as a dark water body for which dedicated or exceptionally robust remote sensing techniques are required. Seasonal and regional optical-biogeochemical models, data distributions, and an extensive set of simulated remote-sensing reflectance spectra for testing of remote sensing algorithms are provided as supplementary data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The common vole (Microtus arvalis) has been a model species of small mammal for studying end-glacial colonization history. In the present study we expanded the sampling from central and eastern Europe, analyzing contemporary genetic structure to identify the role of a potential ‘northern glacial refugium’, i.e. a refugium at a higher latitude than the traditional Mediterranean refugia. Altogether we analyzed 786 cytochrome b (cytb) sequences (representing mitochondrial DNA; mtDNA) from the whole of Europe, adding 177 new sequences from central and eastern Europe, and we conducted analyses on eight microsatellite loci for 499 individuals (representing nuclear DNA) from central and eastern Europe, adding data on 311 new specimens. Our new data fill gaps in the vicinity of the Carpathian Mountains, the potential northern refugium, such that there is now dense sampling from the Balkans to the Baltic Sea. Here we present evidence that the Eastern mtDNA lineage of the common vole was present in the vicinity of this Carpathian refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas. The Eastern lineage expanded from this refugium to the Baltic and shows low cytb nucleotide diversity in those most northerly parts of the distribution. Analyses of microsatellites revealed a similar pattern but also showed little differentiation between all of the populations sampled in central and eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perennial macroalgae within the genus Fucus are known to exude metabolites through their outer thallus surface. Some of these metabolites have pro- and/or antifouling properties. Seasonal fluctuations of natural fouling pressure and chemical fouling control strength against micro- and macrofoulers have previously been observed in Fucus, suggesting that control strength varies with threat. To date, a study on the seasonal composition of surface associated metabolites, responsible for much of the fouling control, has not been done. We sampled individuals of the two co-occurring species F. vesiculosus and F. serratus at monthly intervals (six per species and month) during a one-year field study. We analysed the chemical composition of surface associated metabolites of both Fucus species by means of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to describe temporal patterns in chemical surface composition. Additionally, we correlated abiotic and biotic parameters recorded monthly within the sampled habitat with the variation in the chemical surface landscape of Fucus. Our study revealed that the chemical surface composition of both Fucus species exhibits substantial seasonal differences between spring/summer and autumn/winter months. Light and temperature explained most of the seasonal variability in surface metabolite composition of both Fucus species. A strong summerly up-regulation of eighteen saccharides and two hydroxy acids in F. vesiculosus as well as of four fatty acids and two saccharides in F. serratus was observed. We discuss how these up-regulated molecules may have a complex effect on associated microfoulers, both promoting or decreasing fouling depending on metabolite and bacterial identity. These seasonal shifts in the surface metabolome seem to exert a compound control of density and composition of the Fucus associated biofilm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cetacean monitoring is essential in determining the status of a population. Different monitoring methods should reflect the real trends in abundance and patterns in distribution, and results should therefore ideally be independent of the selected method. Here, we compare two independent methods of describing harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) relative distribution pattern in the western Baltic Sea. Satellite locations from 13 tagged harbour porpoises were used to build a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model of suitable habitats. The data set was subsampled to one location every second day, which were sufficient to make reliable models over the summer (Jun-Aug) and autumn (Sep-Nov) seasons. The modelled results were compared to harbour porpoise acoustic activity obtained from 36 static acoustic monitoring stations (C-PODs) covering the same area. The C-POD data was expressed as the percentage of porpoise positive days/hours (the number of days/hours per day with porpoise detections) by season. The MaxEnt model and C-POD data showed a significant linear relationship with a strong decline in porpoise occurrence from west to east. This study shows that two very different methods provide comparable information on relative distribution patterns of harbour porpoises even in a low density area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the EU Member States to estimate the level of anthropogenic impacts on their marine systems using 11 Descriptors. Assessing food web response to altered habitats is addressed by Descriptor 4 and its indicators, which are being developed for regional seas. However, the development of simple foodweb indicators able to assess the health of ecologically diverse, spatially variable and complex interactions is challenging. Zooplankton is a key element in marine foodwebs and thus comprise an important part of overall ecosystem health. Here, we review work on zooplankton indicator development using long-term data sets across the Baltic Sea and report the main findings. A suite of zooplankton community metrics were evaluated as putative ecological indicators that track community state in relation to Good Environmental Status (GES) criteria with regard to eutrophication and fish feeding conditions in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of an operational definition of GES, we propose mean body mass of zooplankton in the community in combination with zooplankton stock measured as either abundance or biomass to be applicable as an integrated indicator that could be used within the Descriptor 4 in the Baltic Sea. These metrics performed best in predicting zooplankton being in-GES when considering all datasets evaluated. However, some other metrics, such as copepod biomass, the contribution of copepods to the total zooplankton biomass or biomass-based Cladocera: Copepoda ratio, were equally reliable or even superior in certain basin-specific assessments. Our evaluation suggests that in several basins of the Baltic Sea, zooplankton communities currently appear to be out-of-GES, being comprised by smaller zooplankters and having lower total abundance or biomass compared to the communities during the reference conditions; however, the changes in the taxonomic structure underlying these trends vary widely across the sea basins due to the estuarine character of the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Baltic seals are recovering after a population decline. The increasing seal stocks cause notable damage to fisheries in the Baltic Sea, with an unknown number of seals drowning in fishing gear every year. Thus, sustainable seal management requires updated knowledge of the by-catch of seals—the number of specimens that die in fishing gear. We analyse the by-catch of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in Finland, Sweden, and Estonia in 2012. We collect data with interviews (35 in Finland, 54 in Sweden, and 72 in Estonia) and analyse them with a hierarchical Bayesian model. The model accounts for variability in seal abundance, seal mortality and fishing effort in different sub-areas of the Baltic Sea and allows us to predict the by-catch in areas where interview data was not available. We provide a detailed description of the survey design and interview methods, and discuss different factors affecting fishermen's motivation to report by-catch and how this may affect the results. Our analysis shows that the total yearly by-catch by trap and gill nets in Finland, Sweden and Estonia is, with 90% probability, more than 1240 but less than 2860; and the posterior median and mean of the total by-catch are 1550 and 1880 seals, respectively. Trap nets make about 88% of the total by-catch. However, results also indicate that in one of the sub-areas of this study, fishermen may have underreported their by-catch. Taking the possible underreporting into account the posterior mean of the total by-catch is between 2180 and 2380. The by-catch in our study area is likely to represent at least 90% of the total yearly grey seal by-catch in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large bloom of Prymnesium polylepis occurred in the Baltic Sea during the winter 2007 – spring 2008. Based on numerous reports of strong allelopathic effects on phytoplankton exerted by P. polylepis and its toxicity to grazers, we hypothesized that during this period negative correlations will be observed between P. polylepis and (1) main phytoplankton groups contributing to the spring bloom (i.e., diatoms and dinoflagellates), and (2) zooplankton growth and abundance. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed inter-annual variability in phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics as well as growth indices (RNA∶DNA ratio) in dominant zooplankton in relation to the Prymnesium abundance and biomass. Contrary to the hypothesized relationships, no measurable negative responses to P. polylepis were observed for either the total phytoplankton stocks or the zooplankton community. The only negative response, possibly associated with P. polylepis occurrence, was significantly lower abundance of dinoflagellates both during and after the bloom in 2008. Moreover, contrary to the expected negative effects, there were significantly higher total phytoplankton abundance as well as significantly higher winter abundance and winter-spring RNA∶DNA ratio in dominant zooplankton species in 2008, indicating that P. polylepis bloom coincided with favourable feeding conditions for zooplankton. Thus, primary consumers, and consequently also zooplanktivores (e.g., larval fish and mysids), may benefit from haptophyte blooms, particularly in winter, when phytoplankton is scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly accepted that summer cyanobacterial blooms cannot be efficiently utilized by grazers due to low nutritional quality and production of toxins; however the evidence for such effects in situ is often contradictory. Using field and experimental observations on Baltic copepods and bloom-forming diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria, we show that cyanobacteria may in fact support zooplankton production during summer. To highlight this side of zooplankton-cyanobacteria interactions, we conducted: (1) a field survey investigating linkages between cyanobacteria, reproduction and growth indices in the copepod Acartia tonsa; (2) an experiment testing relationships between ingestion of the cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena (measured by molecular diet analysis) and organismal responses (oxidative balance, reproduction and development) in the copepod A. bifilosa; and (3) an analysis of long term (1999–2009) data testing relationships between cyanobacteria and growth indices in nauplii of the copepods, Acartia spp. and Eurytemora affinis, in a coastal area of the northern Baltic proper. In the field survey, N. spumigena had positive effects on copepod egg production and egg viability, effectively increasing their viable egg production. By contrast, Aphanizomenon sp. showed a negative relationship with egg viability yet no significant effect on the viable egg production. In the experiment, ingestion of N. spumigena mixed with green algae Brachiomonas submarina had significant positive effects on copepod oxidative balance, egg viability and development of early nauplial stages, whereas egg production was negatively affected. Finally, the long term data analysis identified cyanobacteria as a significant positive predictor for the nauplial growth in Acartia spp. and E. affinis. Taken together, these results suggest that bloom forming diazotrophic cyanobacteria contribute to feeding and reproduction of zooplankton during summer and create a favorable growth environment for the copepod nauplii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reports increasing iron concentrations in rivers draining into the Baltic Sea. Given the decisive role of iron to the structure and biogeochemical function of aquatic ecosystems, this trend is likely one with far reaching consequences to the receiving system. What those consequences may be depends on the fate of the iron in estuarine mixing. We here assess the stability of riverine iron by mixing water from seven boreal rivers with artificial sea salts. The results show a gradual loss of iron from suspension with increasing salinity. However, the capacity of the different river waters to maintain iron in suspension varied greatly, i.e. between 1 and 54% of iron was in suspension at a salinity of 30. The variability was best explained by iron:organic carbon ratios in the riverine waters – the lower the ratio the more iron remained in suspension. Water with an initially low iron:organic carbon ratio could keep even higher than ambient concentrations of Fe in suspension across the salinity gradient, as shown in experiments with iron amendments. Moreover, there was a positive relationship between the molecular size of the riverine organic matter and the amount of iron in suspension. In all, the results point towards a remarkably high transport capacity of iron from boreal rivers, suggesting that increasing concentrations of iron in river mouths may result in higher concentrations of potentially bioavailable iron in the marine system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seagrasses and associated macrophytes are important components of coastal systems as ecosystem engineers, habitat formers, and providers of food and shelter for other organisms. The positive impacts of seagrass vegetation on zoobenthic abundance and diversity (as compared to bare sands) are well documented, but only in surveys performed in summer, which is the season of maximum canopy development. Here we present the results of the first study of the relationship between the seasonal variability of seagrass vegetation and persistence and magnitude of contrasts in faunal communities between vegetated and bare sediments. The composition, abundance, biomass, and diversity of macrozoobenthos in both habitats were compared five times throughout the year in temperate eelgrass meadows in the southern Baltic Sea. Significant positive effects of macrophyte cover on invertebrate density and biomass were recorded only in June, July, and October when the seagrass canopy was relatively well developed. The effects of vegetation cover on faunal species richness, diversity, and composition persisted throughout the year, but the magnitude of these effects varied seasonally and followed changes in macrophyte biomass. The strongest effects were observed in July and coincided with maximums in seagrass biomass and the diversity and biomass of other macrophytes. These observations indicate that in temperate, clearly seasonal systems the assessment of macrophyte impact cannot be based solely on observations performed in just one season, especially when that season is the one in which macrophyte growth is at its maximum. The widely held belief that macrophyte cover strongly influences benthic fauna in marine coastal habitats, which is based on summer surveys, should be revisited and complemented with information obtained in other seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Baltic/Wadden Sea eider Somateria mollissima flyway population is decreasing, and this trend is also reflected in the large eider colony at Christiansø situated in the Baltic Sea. This colony showed a 15-fold increase from 1925 until the mid-1990's, followed by a rapid decline in recent years, although the causes of this trend remain unknown. Most birds from the colony winter in the Wadden Sea, from which environmental data and information on the size of the main diet, the mussel Mytilus edulis stock exists. We hypothesised that changes in nutrients and water temperature in the Wadden Sea had an effect on the ecosystem affecting the size of mussel stocks, the principal food item for eiders, thereby influencing the number of breeding eider in the Christiansø colony. Methodology/Principal Finding: A positive relationship between the amount of fertilizer used by farmers and the concentration of phosphorus in the Wadden Sea (with a time lag of one year) allowed analysis of the predictions concerning effects of nutrients for the period 1925–2010. There was (1) increasing amounts of fertilizer used in agriculture and this increased the amount of nutrients in the marine environment thereby increasing the mussel stocks in the Wadden Sea. (2) The number of eiders at Christiansø increased when the amount of fertilizer increased. Finally (3) the number of eiders in the colony at Christiansø increased with the amount of mussel stocks in the Wadden Sea. Conclusions/Significance: The trend in the number of eiders at Christiansø is representative for the entire flyway population, and since nutrient reduction in the marine environment occurs in most parts of Northwest Europe, we hypothesize that this environmental candidate parameter is involved in the overall regulation of the Baltic/Wadden Sea eider population during recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the uptake and effects of a common human pharmaceutical, propranolol, on the structure and function of a coastal Baltic Sea model community consisting of macroalga (Ceramium tenuicorne), mussels (Mytilus edulis trossulus), amphipods (Gammarus spp.), water and sediment. The most sensitive species, the mussel, was affected to the same extent as in previous single species studies, while the effects on the amphipod and alga were smaller or even positive compared to experiments performed in less complex test systems. The observed cascade of beneficial effects was a result of inter-specific species interactions that buffered for more severe effects. The poor condition of the mussel led to a feeding shift from alga to mussel by the amphipods. The better food quality, due to the dietary shift, counteracted the effects of the exposure. Less amphipod grazing, together with increased levels of nutrients in the water was favourable for the alga, despite the negative effects of propranolol. This microcosm study showed effects on organisms on different organizational levels as well as interactions among the different components resulting in indirect exposure effects of both functional and structural nature. The combination of both direct and indirect effects would not have been detected using simpler single- or even two-species study designs. The observed structural changes would in the natural environment have a long-term influence on ecosystem function, especially in a low-biodiversity ecosystem like the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatio-temporal density-dependent processes are crucial regulatory factors for natural populations. However, there is a lack of studies addressing spatial density-dependence in fish growth. A previous investigation has suggested spatio-temporal density-dependence in body condition of Baltic sprat. Here, we used different techniques, such as centre of gravity, distance, and homogeneity indices, to better characterize the spatial and temporal variations in sprat density and body condition in the Baltic Proper. Our results evidenced a negative spatio-temporal co-variation between the centres of gravity of density and maximum condition. In the 1980s-early 1990s both centres were located in the middle of the Baltic Proper. From the mid 1990s the centres progressively separated in space, as the sprat population moved towards the north-eastern Baltic Proper, and the centre of maximum condition towards the south-western areas. Moreover, at low abundances, sprat density and condition were homogeneously distributed in space, whereas at high abundances both density and condition showed pronounced geographical gradients. The ecological processes potentially explaining the observed patterns were discussed in the light of the Ideal Free Distribution theory. We provide evidence that the shift in the spatial distribution of cod, the main predator of sprat, has been the main factor triggering the overall spatial changes in sprat density, and thus condition, during the past thirty years. The spatial indices shown here, synthesizing the spatio-temporal patterns of fish distribution, can support the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistence and dispersal of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are important factors for assessing ARG risk in aquaculture environments. Here, we quantitatively detected ARGs for sulphonamides (sul1 and sul2) and trimethoprim (dfrA1) and an integrase gene for a class 1 integron (intI1) at aquaculture facilities in the northern Baltic Sea, Finland. The ARGs persisted in sediments below fish farms at very low antibiotic concentrations during the 6-year observation period from 2006 to 2012. Although the ARGs persisted in the farm sediments, they were less prevalent in the surrounding sediments. The copy numbers between the sul1 and intI1 genes were significantly correlated suggesting that class 1 integrons may play a role in the prevalence of sul1 in the farm sediments through horizontal gene transfer. In conclusion, the presence of ARGs may limit the effectiveness of antibiotics in treating fish illnesses, thereby causing a potential risk to the aquaculture industry. However, the restricted presence of ARGs at the farms is unlikely to cause serious effects in the northern Baltic Sea sediment environments around the farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]