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Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell’s predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions–which are considered very different a priori–had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and non-aquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics for estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the “good environmental status” (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens’s method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends that we document are consistent with the findings of several previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt), a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy) and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny). Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a palaeoenvironmental study of the Castelló lagoon (NE Spain), an important archive for understanding long-term interactions between dynamic littoral ecosystems and human management. Combining geochemistry, mineralogy, ostracods, diatoms, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal and archaeo-historical datasets we reconstruct: 1) the transition of the lagoon from a marine to a marginal environment between ~3150 cal BC to the 17th century AD; 2) fluctuations in salinity; and 3) natural and anthropogenic forces contributing to these changes. From the Late Neolithic to the Medieval period the lagoon ecosystem was driven by changing marine influence and the land was mainly exploited for grazing, with little evidence for impact on the natural woodland. Land-use exploitation adapted to natural coastal dynamics, with maximum marine flooding hampering agropastoral activities between ~1550 and ~150 cal BC. In contrast, societies actively controlled the lagoon dynamics and become a major agent of landscape transformation after the Medieval period. The removal of littoral woodlands after the 8th century was followed by the expansion of agrarian and industrial activities. Regional mining and smelting activities polluted the lagoon with heavy metals from the ~11th century onwards. The expansion of the milling industry and of agricultural lands led to the channelization of the river Muga into the lagoon after ~1250 cal AD. This caused its transformation into a freshwater lake, increased nutrient load, and the infilling and drainage of a great part of the lagoon. By tracking the shift towards an anthropogenically-controlled system around ~750 yr ago, this study points out Mediterranean lagoons as ancient and heavily-modified systems, with anthropogenic impacts and controls covering multi-centennial and even millennial timescales. Finally, we contributed to the future construction of reliable seashell-based chronologies in NE Spain by calibrating the Banyuls-sur-Mer ΔR offset with ceramic imports from the Emporiae archaeological site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]