Search

How does trade affect the persistence of imposed polities? The newly imposed governments in Afghanistan and Iraq draw attention to imposed polities and pose questions about their survival. To assess the likelihood of an imposed polity's success an examination of its political, social, and economic characteristics is necessary. This study analyzes the influence of trade on polity survival. Previous research indicates imposed polities are fragile over their entire existence. For a polity to survive it is important the government pursue policies that encourage economic development. Trade is central to economic development. It enables leaders to distribute rents to its supporters, and is correlated with higher wages for workers and low inflation. On the other hand, disruption of trade may lead to economic crises and encourage regime failure. The influence of trade on the persistence of an imposed polity is dependent upon the stability of the polity prior to imposition. If a stable polity is replaced through external imposition, it is important for trade to continue to maintain the support of the winning coalition. However, if an unstable polity is replaced, trade will not have as large of an impact on persistence because there is no winning coalition that must be satisfied. To examine the effect of trade on imposed polity persistence, I rely on a sample of 90 imposed polities from 1885-2000 and an event history framework. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]