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In recent years, global attention to carbon emissions has increased, becoming one of the main drivers of global climate change. Accurate prediction of carbon emission trends in small and medium-sized countries and scientific regulation of carbon emissions can provide theoretical support and policy references for the effective and rational use of energy and the promotion of the coordinated development of energy, environment, and economy. This paper establishes a grey prediction model using the classical Logistic mathematical model in a determined environment to investigate the carbon emission system. At the same time, we use the basic principle of fractional-order accumulation to establish a grey prediction model with fractional-order Logistic and obtain the parameter estimation and time-response equation of the new model by solving the model through the theory related to fractional-order operators. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to complete the optimization process of the order of the fractional order grey prediction model and obtain the optimal model order. Then, the new model is applied to predict carbon emissions in five medium-emission countries: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Ghana, Belgium, and Austria. The new model shows better advantages in the validity analysis process, and the simulation results indicate that the new model proposed in this paper has stronger stability and better simulation and prediction accuracy than other comparative models, proving the model's validity. Finally, the model is used to forecast the carbon emissions of these five countries for the five years of 2021–2025, and the results are analyzed, and relevant policy recommendations are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study that focuses on alleviating the impacts of grid outages in Ethiopia. To deal with grid outages, most industrial customers utilize backup diesel generators (DG) which are environmentally unfriendly and economically not viable. Grid-integration of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) might be a possible solution to enhance grid reliability and reduce environmental and economic impacts of utilizing DG. In this study, an optimization of grid integrated HRES is carried out for different dispatch and control strategies. The optimal power supply option is determined by performing comparative analysis of the different configurations of grid integrated HRES. The result of the study shows that grid integrated HRES consisting of photovoltaic and wind turbine as renewable energy sources, and battery and hydrogen as hybrid energy storage systems is found to be the optimal system to supply the load demand. From the hydrogen produced on-site, the FC generator and FCEVs consume 143 620 kg/yr of hydrogen which is equivalent to 394 955 kg/yr gasoline fuel consumption. This corresponds to saving 1 184 865 kg/yr of CO 2 emissions and 605 703 $/yr revenue. Besides, this system yields 547 035.4 $/yr revenue by injecting excess electricity to the grid. The study clearly shows the economic and environmental viability of this new technology for implementation. • Modeling and optimization of grid-integrated HRES including grid-reliability and dispatch control. • Storage of excess electricity produced from renewable energy sources in batteries. • Onsite production of renewable hydrogen with excess electricity produced from renewable energy sources. • The role of renewable hydrogen for simultaneous decarbonization of electricity and transportation sectors. • Minimizing overall operating costs by injecting excess electricity to the grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant volumes of magma can be intruded into the crust during continental break‐up, influencing rift evolution by altering the thermo‐mechanical structure of the crust and its response to extensional stresses. Rift magmas additionally feed surface volcanic activity and can be globally significant sources of tectonic CO2 emissions. Understanding how magmatism may affect rift development requires knowledge on magma intrusion depths in the crust. Here, using data from olivine‐hosted melt inclusions, we investigate magma dynamics for basaltic intrusions in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). We find evidence for a spatially focused zone of magma intrusion at the MER upper‐lower crustal boundary (10–15 km depth), consistent with geophysical datasets. We propose that ascending melts in the MER are intruded over this depth range as discrete sills, likely creating a mechanically weak mid‐crustal layer. Our results have important implications for how magma addition can influence crustal rheology in a maturing continental rift. Plain Language Summary: Continental rifting, the break‐up of continents to form new ocean basins, is a key component in the tectonic cycle that affects Earth's surface environment. The rifting process is aided by magmatic activity in its final stages, which weakens the crust by heating it. This is believed to facilitate present‐day rifting in Ethiopia, where we find rift‐related volcanoes. The depth of magma storage in the rifting crust will determine how heat is distributed, and therefore how the physical properties of the crust are altered. Here we study melt inclusions, small pockets of magmas trapped within growing crystals beneath rift volcanoes. Using the concentrations of CO2 and H2O in melt inclusions we infer the pressures (and therefore depths) that they formed. Our results demonstrate that magmas rising through the Ethiopian crust consistently stall at a depth range of 10–15 km beneath the surface. Furthermore, the diverse chemical composition of our melt inclusions show that magmas are stored in multiple small bodies versus a larger mixed magma reservoir. This study therefore provides new insights into how magmas are stored in the Ethiopian crust before volcanic eruptions and suggests that rising magmas may produce a weak layer in the middle of the rifting crust. Key Points: We determine magma storage conditions in the Main Ethiopian Rift through geochemical analysis of olivine‐hosted melt inclusionsVolatile saturation barometry reveals that basaltic melts are focused at 10–15 km depth in the Ethiopian crustGeochemical heterogeneity in melt inclusions suggests that magma storage is likely to occur in semi‐discrete sills [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for cement, which is one of the key components of concrete, is high in Ethiopia, but it is the most expensive and environmentally unfriendly construction material. Due to the increasing concerns about the environment worldwide, researchers have started looking for other resources that can be used to reduce the pollution caused by the cement industry. One of the most effective ways to reduce the pollution caused by the cement industry is by using volcanic scoria powder as a partial replacement for cement in concrete production. Scoria is a locally available natural volcanic material in Ethiopia, especially around the rift valley regions. This natural resource can also be used to reduce energy consumption and the cost of production of cement. To investigate this study, nonprobability sampling techniques were adopted to collect samples from the study area. A differing proportion of scoria powder was considered as a partial replacement of cement after analyzing its characteristics, and its effect on the fresh and mechanical properties of hardened concrete was examined. The test results on the characteristics of scoria revealed that the material is suitable to be used as a supplementary cementitious material in concrete production; hence, its main constituents SiO2 + Al2O3 + Fe2O3 are higher than 70% as per ASTM C618. As the content of scoria powder replacement in cement is increased, it reduces the slump of freshly mixed concrete properties. The hardened concrete specimens made with 10%, 20%, and 30% partial replacement of cement with scoria achieved the specified minimum strength after 28 days of curing time. But concrete specimens made with 40% scoria content do not satisfy the minimum specified concrete strength even after 90 days. The significant strength achievement in scoria blended concrete specimens occurred when moving from 56 to 90 days of curing with 10% replacements. However, in reference specimens, this was observed during 28 days of curing times. The findings of this investigation revealed that scoria powder could replace cement by 30% for the production of normal concrete and it also has the potential to protect the environment from carbon dioxide emissions. These findings satisfy the basic strategy of green concrete production in worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adversely affected agricultural productivity in developing countries. This study aimed to explore the effects of this climate change, particularly on cereal crops production in Ethiopia. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to the co-integration with an error correction term. ARDL technique was selected due to its stationarity assumption and unbiased estimates of its long-run coefficients. The estimated model justifies the existence of a long-run relationship between cereal crops production, climate change variables (temperature and precipitation), and other explanatory variables. Precipitation has a positive and significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long and short runs, while temperature change has a significant negative effect. In the long run, cereal crops production was positively and significantly affected by arable land, fertilizer consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions, while in the short run, labor force participation has a positive and significant effect on cereal crops production. The study results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between cereal crops production and climate change variables. In agriculture, research and development should focus on varieties of cereal crops that can tolerate high temperatures. Climate Resilient Green Economy should have to strengthen in the country. All countries should have to work hand-in-hand to mitigate the effect of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Ethiopia, biomass contributes to about 92% of the household fuel consumption. As a result, deforestation rate has alarmingly increased associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land degradation. The concerned government agencies have been widely making concerted efforts to reverse the situation by of promotion of improved cookstoves (ICS). However, the performance of these technologies in terms of saving fuelwood and their contribution to CO2 emission reduction in a real kitchen was not studied systematically. Thus, this research was initiated to address the knowledge gap. Methods: The study was conducted in Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. The study households were selected following cross-sectional and longitudinal study designs. A kitchen performance test (KPT) was carried out based on 3 days of repeated fuelwood use measurements to compare the wood-saving performance of ICS in comparison with the traditional cookstove (TCS). The emission reduction potential of both ICS and TCS was calculated based on the Clean Development Mechanism and United Nation's Framework of Convention on Climate Change and presented in CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Results: The result suggests significant differences in total and per capita wood consumption (p < 0.05) between improved and TCS. The use of Mirt and Tikikil compared to the traditional stove has reduced the household wood consumption by 35% and 18%, respectively. Furthermore, ICS stoves also reduced CO2e emission per stove per year by 0.65 and 0.27 tons, respectively. Conclusion: The study deals with the significant contribution that the shift from TCS to the ICS brought in terms of reducing the amount of fuelwood used at household level and the carbon emission per capita. It addresses the crucial roles of such technologies in reducing forest degradation and the associated ecosystem loss. Therefore, policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries at household level should at least start via promotions of ICS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual, in-person professional meetings at a single location yield several personal and organizational benefits. Yet greenhouse gas emissions from organizing, executing, and attending conferences contribute significantly to the climate crisis. Within at least the last decade, the American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA) has claimed to continually reduce the carbon footprint of the annual meeting and EXPO by performing a variety of actions. ASLA supports global and national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets to limit global warming to 1.5°C and has committed to measuring, understanding, making public, and reducing the organization's emissions. To date, ASLA has not released information on its progress toward these goals. This study extends my previous work by estimating carbon dioxide emissions from the venues of the 2018 and 2019 ASLA Annual Meeting and EXPO and from travel and hotel accommodations for the attendees and 711 EXPO exhibitors. This study used online carbon calculators, refereed literature, and building energy benchmarking data. The results indicate that featured speakers and EXPO representatives originated from a small number of metropolitan areas, thereby supporting potential future decentralized meetings. Additionally, attendees' and exhibitors' total four-day conference emissions estimations were equivalent to the entire annual per capita emissions of someone residing in Ethiopia. In light of these results, I present ideas for several alternative means of convening. My emissions estimations of alternative conference modes indicate that emissions reduction targets could bemet in the short term by immediatelymoving to hybridizedmeetings requiring virtual attendance fromat least half of the participants from the most distant locations. In the long term, and by 2030 at the latest, ASLA's annual meetings should be held entirely online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between income inequality, economic growth, and CO2 emissions is ambiguous both theoretically and empirically. Hence, this study examines the link between income inequality, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Ethiopia for time span covering 1979–2014 using ARDL bounds test and DOLS approach to cointegration. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Clemente-Montanes-Reyes unit root test reveal that some of the variables under consideration are stationary at level while others become stationary after first differencing. Both ARDL and DOLS approaches confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the series during the study period. The long-run empirical results show that a 1% increase in economic growth accounts for a 1.05% increase in CO2 emissions while a 1% increase in economic growth squared reduces CO2 emissions by 0.11%. The U-test result reveals that the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth confirms existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The effect of income inequality on CO2 is not robust to alternative estimation techniques; it is statistically insignificant under the ARDL estimation, but DOLS estimates show that a 1% increase in income inequality increases CO2 emissions by 0.21% in the long-run during the study period. In the long-run, a 1% rise in urbanization, population size, energy intensity, and industrialization each positively contribute to environmental degradation in Ethiopia by 0.38%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.11% respectively. Results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality show a bidirectional causal relationship between CO2 emissions and all other variables except economic growth. CO2 emissions Granger causes economic growth with no feedback effect. Results suggested important policy implications in the light of achieving its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy for Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia's energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country's electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country's exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]